Republican share of the two-party vote, 2024 and Violent crime rate
Where Republican share of the two-party vote, 2024 is higher, Violent crime rate tends to be lower. The link is weak: -0.31 across 2,273 counties, on a scale from −1 (opposite) to +1 (in step). That figure compares places with the same population density, income and education, so those differences can't explain it. It holds inside states too. Measured separately within each of 36 states, the middle value of the link is -0.45.
Holds after adjusting
Every place, plotted
One dot for each place reporting both measures. Hover over or tap a dot to see its name and values. The thin line is the straight line that best fits the dots. The bold line, shown for counties, is the link after adjusting for density, income and education. A dot far from the lines is a place that does not follow the pattern.
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What each measure is
Republican share of the two-party vote, 2024
The Republican share of the votes for the two main parties in the 2024 presidential election, by state. Third-party votes are left out, so this shows which way the two-party vote leaned and nothing about turnout. It describes how a state voted and does not judge it. No measure here treats either party as the better end.
MIT Election Data and Science Lab · MEDSL 2024 official state returns
Violent crime rate
Murders, rapes, robberies and aggravated assaults in the year, per 100,000 residents, from the FBI. It counts only crimes reported to police or found by them, so crimes nobody reports are missing. For a state, the figure is the FBI's estimate, which fills in for police agencies that did not report. For a county, it is only what the agencies reported, and it is shown only where agencies that reported for all 12 months serve at least 90% of the people who live there.
FBI Uniform Crime Reporting program (Crime Data Explorer) · FBI Crime Data Explorer: states, estimated_crimes violent_crime; counties, Return A master file, actual offenses
Highest and lowest
Where each measure is highest and lowest among the places reporting both (2023), with the other measure beside it. This is shown for every size of place where both are published. Metro-area values are added up from their counties. A measure that cannot be added up across counties, such as a middle value (median), has no metro figure. Counts are shown per 1,000 residents, since raw totals would only list the largest places. Cities and towns and ZIP codes are shown where the Census survey or the CDC publishes them; most other sources stop at the county. They are shown for places of 5,000 residents or more, and only where the survey’s margin of error is small enough for the figure to be usable. The CDC publishes its health estimates for cities in a version adjusted for age, so places with older or younger people can be compared fairly, but not for ZIP codes.
Counties
By republican share of the two-party vote, 2024
| Republican share of the two-party vote, 2024 | Violent crime rate | |
|---|---|---|
| Highest | ||
| Roberts County, TX | 96.2 | 0 |
| Garfield County, MT | 95.1 | 81 |
| King County, TX | 95 | 0 |
| Glasscock County, TX | 94.3 | 0 |
| Sterling County, TX | 93.8 | 139 |
| Lowest | ||
| District of Columbia, DC | 6.69 | 1,296 |
| Prince George's County, MD | 11.5 | 463 |
| Baltimore city, MD | 12.5 | 1,694 |
| Petersburg city, VA | 13.2 | 700 |
| Orleans Parish, LA | 14.9 | 1,361 |
By violent crime rate
| Republican share of the two-party vote, 2024 | Violent crime rate | |
|---|---|---|
| Highest | ||
| Shelby County, TN | 37.1 | 1,876 |
| Crittenden County, AR | 48.8 | 1,764 |
| Baltimore city, MD | 12.5 | 1,694 |
| St. Louis city, MO | 17 | 1,457 |
| Robeson County, NC | 63.9 | 1,421 |
| Lowest | ||
| San Juan County, CO | 33.3 | 0 |
| Kiowa County, CO | 87.9 | 0 |
| Conejos County, CO | 59.2 | 0 |
| Menominee County, WI | 18.9 | 0 |
| Roberts County, TX | 96.2 | 0 |
States
By republican share of the two-party vote, 2024
| Republican share of the two-party vote, 2024 | Violent crime rate | |
|---|---|---|
| Highest | ||
| Wyoming | 73.5 | 194 |
| West Virginia | 71.3 | 269 |
| Idaho | 68.8 | 240 |
| North Dakota | 68.7 | 280 |
| Oklahoma | 67.5 | 418 |
| Lowest | ||
| District of Columbia | 6.69 | 1,142 |
| Vermont | 33.6 | 216 |
| Maryland | 35.2 | 440 |
| Massachusetts | 37 | 321 |
| Hawaii | 38.2 | 232 |
By violent crime rate
| Republican share of the two-party vote, 2024 | Violent crime rate | |
|---|---|---|
| Highest | ||
| District of Columbia | 6.69 | 1,142 |
| New Mexico | 46.9 | 747 |
| Alaska | 56.8 | 734 |
| Tennessee | 65.1 | 636 |
| Arkansas | 65.7 | 623 |
| Lowest | ||
| Maine | 46.5 | 104 |
| New Hampshire | 48.6 | 115 |
| Connecticut | 42.6 | 152 |
| Rhode Island | 42.9 | 167 |
| Wyoming | 73.5 | 194 |
Metro areas
By republican share of the two-party vote, 2024
| Republican share of the two-party vote, 2024 | Violent crime rate | |
|---|---|---|
| Highest | ||
| Cullman, AL | 90.5 | 171 |
| Pampa, TX | 89.6 | 400 |
| Borger, TX | 89.3 | 471 |
| Gillette, WY | 88.9 | 253 |
| Brownwood, TX | 87.5 | 373 |
| Lowest | ||
| Boulder, CO | 21.4 | 330 |
| Santa Cruz-Watsonville, CA | 21.7 | 420 |
| San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA | 23 | 755 |
| Vineyard Haven, MA | 23.1 | 299 |
| Ithaca, NY | 24.7 | 128 |
By violent crime rate
| Republican share of the two-party vote, 2024 | Violent crime rate | |
|---|---|---|
| Highest | ||
| Memphis, TN-MS-AR | 46.7 | 1,453 |
| Lumberton, NC | 63.9 | 1,421 |
| Orangeburg, SC | 37.6 | 1,414 |
| Forrest City, AR | 49.6 | 1,324 |
| Albuquerque, NM | 42.6 | 1,152 |
| Lowest | ||
| Quincy, IL-MO | 74.8 | 0 |
| Lexington, NE | 75.8 | 0 |
| Columbus, IN | 64 | 16.1 |
| Pikeville, KY | 81.9 | 31.1 |
| Moscow, ID | 54.1 | 35.7 |
Counties furthest from the pattern
Compared with the straight line that best fits all 2,281 counties: the five with far more violent crime rate than their republican share of the two-party vote, 2024 would suggest, and the five with far less.
| Republican share of the two-party vote, 2024 | Violent crime rate | |
|---|---|---|
| Above the line | ||
| Shelby County, TN | 37.1 | 1,876 |
| Crittenden County, AR | 48.8 | 1,764 |
| Baltimore city, MD | 12.5 | 1,694 |
| Robeson County, NC | 63.9 | 1,421 |
| Orangeburg County, SC | 37.6 | 1,414 |
| Below the line | ||
| Menominee County, WI | 18.9 | 0 |
| San Juan County, CO | 33.3 | 0 |
| San Juan County, WA | 23.3 | 47.2 |
| Sioux County, ND | 30.4 | 27.4 |
| San Miguel County, CO | 24.6 | 70.4 |
Two series, one county
Both measures over time for a county you pick. The two charts are stacked, so they share only the years along the bottom. You can pick from the thirty largest counties reporting both. This panel covers 2010–2024, and a measure published only once shows as a single dot.
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Every version of the link
Each row measures the same link, from −1 to +1, in a different way. If the rows mostly agree, the link does not depend on one choice of method.
| Before adjusting for anything | -0.332 | 2,273 counties reporting both |
| After adjusting for density, income and education | -0.309 | the part of the link that is not just how urban, rich and educated a place is |
| Also adjusting for population size | -0.286 | size taken out as well as density |
| Also comparing only within each state | -0.325 | each county is compared only with others in its own state, so this is no longer a comparison between states |
| Giving bigger counties more weight | -0.428 | the adjusted link for the average resident rather than the average county. With this weighting, the data counts for about 237 equally weighted counties |
| Middle value inside single states | -0.453 | the link worked out inside each of 36 states with at least 20 counties reporting |
| Using ranks, after adjusting | -0.248 | uses each county’s rank, not its value, so a few extreme counties cannot create the link |
How much to believe it
Could it be chance?
The p-value is the chance of seeing a link this strong if there were really none. A value of 0.05 or less means the link is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 3.1e-16 means 0.00000000000000031, and the bigger the number after “e-”, the smaller the value. Treating every county as a separate case gives p = 2.1e-51. But counties in the same state tend to resemble each other, so the better figure allows for that: p = 4.3e-5. The site tested 29,403 pairs, and testing so many turns up some flukes. The q-value allows for that too. For this pair it is 1.4e-50.
Do nearby places look alike?
Moran’s I measures how much nearby places look alike: 0 means no map pattern, and higher means neighbours are more similar. For the part of each county that the adjustment leaves unexplained, it is +0.35 (p = 0.001). That unexplained part still clusters on the map. So some regional factor shared by both measures is not accounted for.
Did they change together?
Not measurable: at least one of these is published for too few of the years a change needs (2014–2019 or 2019–2023), or for too few counties in both.
Related pairs
- Housing insecurity and Republican share of the two-party vote, 2024 — -0.60
- Lack of reliable transportation and Republican share of the two-party vote, 2024 — -0.59
- Received food stamps and Republican share of the two-party vote, 2024 — -0.57
- Food insecurity and Republican share of the two-party vote, 2024 — -0.57
- Share now married and Republican share of the two-party vote, 2024 — +0.56
- Share never married and Republican share of the two-party vote, 2024 — -0.56
- Homicide rate and Violent crime rate — +0.56
- Share Black, not Hispanic and Republican share of the two-party vote, 2024 — -0.56
Association only. Nothing here shows that either measure changes the other. This describes counties, not the people in them. Two measures going together across places does not mean the same people have both. How the US county data works · Explore Republican share of the two-party vote, 2024 and Violent crime rate