Share with a bachelor's degree or higher and Republican swing, 2000 to 2024
Where Share with a bachelor's degree or higher is higher, Republican swing, 2000 to 2024 tends to be lower. The link is moderate: -0.54 across 3,092 counties, on a scale from −1 (opposite) to +1 (in step). That figure compares places with the same population density, income and education, so those differences can't explain it. It holds inside states too. Measured separately within each of 39 states, the middle value of the link is -0.71.
Holds after adjusting
Every place, plotted
One dot for each place reporting both measures. Hover over or tap a dot to see its name and values. The thin line is the straight line that best fits the dots. The bold line, shown for counties, is the link after adjusting for density, income and education. A dot far from the lines is a place that does not follow the pattern.
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What each measure is
Share with a bachelor's degree or higher
The percentage of adults aged 25 and over who have at least a bachelor's degree. It counts degrees people already have, not people who are in college now.
Census ACS 5-year · ACS table B15003_022…B15003_025 (4 cells), divided by population aged 25 and over
Republican swing, 2000 to 2024
The change in the Republican share of the two-party presidential vote from 2000 to 2024, in percentage points. Positive means the area moved toward Republicans. That is a different question from which party it votes for.
MIT Election Data and Science Lab · MIT county presidential returns
Highest and lowest
Where each measure is highest and lowest among the places reporting both (2023), with the other measure beside it. This is shown for every size of place where both are published. Metro-area values are added up from their counties. A measure that cannot be added up across counties, such as a middle value (median), has no metro figure. Counts are shown per 1,000 residents, since raw totals would only list the largest places. Cities and towns and ZIP codes are shown where the Census survey or the CDC publishes them; most other sources stop at the county. They are shown for places of 5,000 residents or more, and only where the survey’s margin of error is small enough for the figure to be usable. The CDC publishes its health estimates for cities in a version adjusted for age, so places with older or younger people can be compared fairly, but not for ZIP codes.
Counties
By share with a bachelor's degree or higher
| Share with a bachelor's degree or higher | Republican swing, 2000 to 2024 | |
|---|---|---|
| Highest | ||
| Falls Church city, VA | 79.7% | -22.3 |
| Arlington County, VA | 77.1% | -16.2 |
| Los Alamos County, NM | 68.2% | -23.2 |
| Alexandria city, VA | 65.8% | -15.6 |
| San Miguel County, CO | 65.2% | -14.8 |
| Lowest | ||
| Loving County, TX | 0% | 8.49 |
| McDowell County, WV | 5.75% | 48 |
| Elliott County, KY | 6.22% | 46.3 |
| Newton County, TX | 6.23% | 35.2 |
| Lee County, AR | 6.87% | 15.1 |
By republican swing, 2000 to 2024
| Share with a bachelor's degree or higher | Republican swing, 2000 to 2024 | |
|---|---|---|
| Highest | ||
| Jackson County, TN | 13.5% | 52 |
| Grundy County, TN | 12.4% | 50.6 |
| Smith County, TN | 17.9% | 50 |
| Mingo County, WV | 8.33% | 48.4 |
| Knott County, KY | 17.8% | 48.2 |
| Lowest | ||
| Rockdale County, GA | 29.1% | -39 |
| Henry County, GA | 28% | -33.2 |
| Douglas County, GA | 30.8% | -28.7 |
| Teton County, WY | 61.2% | -25.5 |
| Ouray County, CO | 54% | -25.3 |
States — Republican swing, 2000 to 2024 is not published for states
By share with a bachelor's degree or higher
| Share with a bachelor's degree or higher | Republican swing, 2000 to 2024 | |
|---|---|---|
| Highest | ||
| District of Columbia | 63.6% | — |
| Massachusetts | 46.6% | — |
| Colorado | 44.7% | — |
| New Jersey | 42.9% | — |
| Maryland | 42.7% | — |
| Lowest | ||
| West Virginia | 23.3% | — |
| Mississippi | 24.2% | — |
| Arkansas | 25.1% | — |
| Louisiana | 26.6% | — |
| Kentucky | 27% | — |
Metro areas
By share with a bachelor's degree or higher
| Share with a bachelor's degree or higher | Republican swing, 2000 to 2024 | |
|---|---|---|
| Highest | ||
| Los Alamos, NM | 68.2% | -23.2 |
| Boulder, CO | 63.9% | -20.7 |
| Ithaca, NY | 59.3% | -13.3 |
| Nantucket, MA | 58.4% | -4.89 |
| Ann Arbor, MI | 58.1% | -10.5 |
| Lowest | ||
| Town of Pecos, TX | 6.87% | 27.2 |
| Summerville, GA | 10.7% | 25.1 |
| Arcadia, FL | 11% | 15.4 |
| Eufaula, AL-GA | 11.3% | 8.98 |
| Clewiston, FL | 11.3% | 12.9 |
By republican swing, 2000 to 2024
| Share with a bachelor's degree or higher | Republican swing, 2000 to 2024 | |
|---|---|---|
| Highest | ||
| Pikeville, KY | 15.7% | 41.6 |
| Scottsboro, AL | 15.6% | 37.7 |
| McMinnville, TN | 15.1% | 35.4 |
| Rio Grande City-Roma, TX | 13.3% | 35 |
| Lewisburg, TN | 21% | 34 |
| Lowest | ||
| Jackson, WY-ID | 57.1% | -25.1 |
| Los Alamos, NM | 68.2% | -23.2 |
| Boulder, CO | 63.9% | -20.7 |
| Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX | 49.9% | -20.6 |
| Lawrence, KS | 52% | -17.6 |
Cities and towns — Republican swing, 2000 to 2024 is not published for cities and towns
By share with a bachelor's degree or higher
| Share with a bachelor's degree or higher | Republican swing, 2000 to 2024 | |
|---|---|---|
| Highest | ||
| University at Buffalo CDP, NY | 97.3% | — |
| Stanford CDP, CA | 91.1% | — |
| Scarsdale village, NY | 90.7% | — |
| West University Place city, TX | 90.5% | — |
| University Park city, TX | 90.4% | — |
| Lowest | ||
| Binghamton University CDP, NY | 0% | — |
| Corcoran city, CA | 3.16% | — |
| McFarland city, CA | 4.11% | — |
| Mecca CDP, CA | 4.26% | — |
| Good Hope CDP, CA | 4.28% | — |
ZIP codes — Republican swing, 2000 to 2024 is not published for ZIP codes
By share with a bachelor's degree or higher
| Share with a bachelor's degree or higher | Republican swing, 2000 to 2024 | |
|---|---|---|
| Highest | ||
| ZIP 19383 (Chester County, PA) | 98.6% | — |
| ZIP 02210 (Boston city, MA) | 93.1% | — |
| ZIP 53726 (Madison city, WI) | 91.8% | — |
| ZIP 60654 (Chicago city, IL) | 91.8% | — |
| ZIP 10069 (New York city, NY) | 91% | — |
| Lowest | ||
| ZIP 36849 (Auburn city, AL) | 0% | — |
| ZIP 13902 (Binghamton University CDP, NY) | 0% | — |
| ZIP 92254 (Riverside County, CA) | 3.03% | — |
| ZIP 89070 (Clark County, NV) | 3.45% | — |
| ZIP 73108 (Oklahoma City city, OK) | 3.61% | — |
Counties furthest from the pattern
Compared with the straight line that best fits all 3,101 counties: the five with far more republican swing, 2000 to 2024 than their share with a bachelor's degree or higher would suggest, and the five with far less.
| Share with a bachelor's degree or higher | Republican swing, 2000 to 2024 | |
|---|---|---|
| Above the line | ||
| Smith County, TN | 17.9% | 50 |
| Jackson County, TN | 13.5% | 52 |
| Knott County, KY | 17.8% | 48.2 |
| Grundy County, TN | 12.4% | 50.6 |
| Floyd County, KY | 15.1% | 46.7 |
| Below the line | ||
| Rockdale County, GA | 29.1% | -39 |
| Henry County, GA | 28% | -33.2 |
| Douglas County, GA | 30.8% | -28.7 |
| Hopewell city, VA | 12.5% | -12.3 |
| Newton County, GA | 23.6% | -20 |
Two series, one county
Both measures over time for a county you pick. The two charts are stacked, so they share only the years along the bottom. You can pick from the thirty largest counties reporting both. This panel covers 2010–2024, and a measure published only once shows as a single dot.
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Every version of the link
Each row measures the same link, from −1 to +1, in a different way. If the rows mostly agree, the link does not depend on one choice of method.
| Before adjusting for anything | -0.679 | 3,092 counties reporting both |
| After adjusting for density, income and education | -0.541 | the part of the link that is not just how urban, rich and educated a place is |
| Also adjusting for population size | -0.532 | size taken out as well as density |
| Also comparing only within each state | -0.521 | each county is compared only with others in its own state, so this is no longer a comparison between states |
| Giving bigger counties more weight | -0.471 | the adjusted link for the average resident rather than the average county. With this weighting, the data counts for about 286 equally weighted counties |
| Middle value inside single states | -0.712 | the link worked out inside each of 39 states with at least 20 counties reporting |
| Using ranks, after adjusting | -0.521 | uses each county’s rank, not its value, so a few extreme counties cannot create the link |
How much to believe it
Could it be chance?
The p-value is the chance of seeing a link this strong if there were really none. A value of 0.05 or less means the link is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 3.1e-16 means 0.00000000000000031, and the bigger the number after “e-”, the smaller the value. Treating every county as a separate case gives p = 9.4e-235. But counties in the same state tend to resemble each other, so the better figure allows for that: p = 4.1e-20. The site tested 20,910 pairs, and testing so many turns up some flukes. The q-value allows for that too. For this pair it is 1.2e-233.
Do nearby places look alike?
Moran’s I measures how much nearby places look alike: 0 means no map pattern, and higher means neighbours are more similar. For the part of each county that the adjustment leaves unexplained, it is +0.56 (p = 0.001). That unexplained part still clusters on the map. So some regional factor shared by both measures is not accounted for.
Did they change together?
Not measurable: at least one of these is published for too few of the years a change needs (2014–2019 or 2019–2023), or for too few counties in both.
Related pairs
- Median household income and Share with a bachelor's degree or higher — +0.64
- Share with a bachelor's degree or higher and Returns reporting capital gains — +0.55
- Per capita income and Share with a bachelor's degree or higher — +0.54
- Share with a bachelor's degree or higher and Economy score — +0.52
- Share with a bachelor's degree or higher and Republican share of the two-party vote, 2024 — -0.48
- Republican share of the two-party vote, 2020 and Republican swing, 2000 to 2024 — +0.45
- Share with a bachelor's degree or higher and Republican share of the two-party vote, 2020 — -0.45
- Share White, not Hispanic and Republican swing, 2000 to 2024 — +0.43
Association only. Nothing here shows that either measure changes the other. This describes counties, not the people in them. Two measures going together across places does not mean the same people have both. How the US county data works · Explore Share with a bachelor's degree or higher and Republican swing, 2000 to 2024