Republican swing, 2000 to 2024
The change in the Republican share of the two-party presidential vote from 2000 to 2024, in percentage points. Positive means the area moved toward Republicans. That is a different question from which party it votes for.
Reported for3,111areas, in 50 states — none in AK, PR
Link to density0.27not mostly about how urban a place is
Nearby places alike0.60Moran’s I: strongly, neighbouring places tend to be similar
Typeratepercentage points
How it has moved
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Every state, every year
Nothing to draw here: this measure has no state figures. Its publisher reports it for counties. This site does not add county numbers up into state figures, since a home-made figure could clash with one an agency publishes itself. The chart above covers the whole country, year by year.
Where it comes from
MIT Election Data and Science Lab · MIT county presidential returns
How far the county moved over twenty-four years. That is a different question from where it stands, and it goes with different things. Positive means it moved towards the Republican candidate. Time period: from the 2000 and 2024 presidential elections; how a county votes changes slowly, so an election result is a fair stand-in for how it leans now, but it is not a direct measure of that.
Combining areas: an average weighted by presidential votes cast, 2024.
What it goes with
The strongest links that have a page of their own. Unadjusted is the link before adjusting for anything, from −1 (opposite) to +1 (in step). Adjusted compares places with the same population density, income and education levels, so those differences can’t explain the link. This list leaves out the 2 pairs built from the same numbers or the same model as this measure, since they are bound to match.
| Measure | Unadjusted | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|
| Republican swing, 2000 to 2024 and Share with a bachelor's degree or higherWhere Republican swing, 2000 to 2024 is higher, Share with a bachelor's degree or higher tends to be lower: a moderate link that holds when only places with similar density, income and education are compared, and inside states as well. Share with a bachelor's degree or higher by US county | -0.68 | -0.54 |
| Republican swing, 2000 to 2024 and Republican share of the two-party vote, 2020Where Republican swing, 2000 to 2024 is higher, Republican share of the two-party vote, 2020 tends to be higher: a moderate link that holds when only places with similar density, income and education are compared, and inside states as well. Republican share of the two-party vote, 2020 by US county | +0.61 | +0.45 |
| Republican swing, 2000 to 2024 and Share White, not HispanicWhere Republican swing, 2000 to 2024 is higher, Share White, not Hispanic tends to be higher: a moderate link that holds when only places with similar density, income and education are compared, and inside states as well. Share White, not Hispanic by US county | +0.32 | +0.43 |
| Republican swing, 2000 to 2024 and Share Black, not HispanicWhere Republican swing, 2000 to 2024 is higher, Share Black, not Hispanic tends to be lower: a moderate link that holds when only places with similar density, income and education are compared, and inside states as well. Share Black, not Hispanic by US county | -0.18 | -0.42 |
| Republican swing, 2000 to 2024 and Housing insecurityWhere Republican swing, 2000 to 2024 is higher, Housing insecurity tends to be lower: a weak link that holds when only places with similar density, income and education are compared. Housing insecurity by US county | +0.09 | -0.37 |
| Republican swing, 2000 to 2024 and Republican share of the two-party vote, 2016Where Republican swing, 2000 to 2024 is higher, Republican share of the two-party vote, 2016 tends to be higher: a weak link that holds when only places with similar density, income and education are compared, and inside states as well. Republican share of the two-party vote, 2016 by US county | +0.53 | +0.37 |
| Republican swing, 2000 to 2024 and Cancer other than skin cancerWhere Republican swing, 2000 to 2024 is higher, Cancer other than skin cancer tends to be higher: a weak link that holds when only places with similar density, income and education are compared. Cancer other than skin cancer by US county | +0.12 | +0.36 |
| Republican swing, 2000 to 2024 and Share never marriedWhere Republican swing, 2000 to 2024 is higher, Share never married tends to be lower: a weak link that holds when only places with similar density, income and education are compared, and inside states as well. Share never married by US county | -0.35 | -0.34 |
| Republican swing, 2000 to 2024 and Food insecurityWhere Republican swing, 2000 to 2024 is higher, Food insecurity tends to be lower: a weak link that holds when only places with similar density, income and education are compared. Food insecurity by US county | +0.15 | -0.34 |
| Republican swing, 2000 to 2024 and Lack of reliable transportationWhere Republican swing, 2000 to 2024 is higher, Lack of reliable transportation tends to be lower: a weak link that holds when only places with similar density, income and education are compared. Lack of reliable transportation by US county | +0.14 | -0.34 |
Population makeup
How this measure varies with the racial and ethnic makeup of counties. Every group is shown, whatever its rank. These are links across counties: they describe places, not people. They say nothing about any person’s risk or behaviour based on their race. Counties with a larger share of one group also differ in much else, such as income, segregation, region and history. The adjusted figure only accounts for density, income and education.
| Share of residents | Unadjusted | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|
| Republican swing, 2000 to 2024 and Share White, not HispanicWhere Republican swing, 2000 to 2024 is higher, Share White, not Hispanic tends to be higher: a moderate link that holds when only places with similar density, income and education are compared, and inside states as well. Share White, not Hispanic by US county | +0.32 | +0.43 |
| Republican swing, 2000 to 2024 and Share Black, not HispanicWhere Republican swing, 2000 to 2024 is higher, Share Black, not Hispanic tends to be lower: a moderate link that holds when only places with similar density, income and education are compared, and inside states as well. Share Black, not Hispanic by US county | -0.18 | -0.42 |
| Republican swing, 2000 to 2024 and Share Hispanic or Latino, any raceWhere Republican swing, 2000 to 2024 is higher, Share Hispanic or Latino, any race tends to be lower: a weak link that holds when only places with similar density, income and education are compared, and inside states as well. Share Hispanic or Latino, any race by US county | -0.15 | -0.20 |
| Republican swing, 2000 to 2024 and Share Asian, not HispanicCould easily be chance once only places with similar density, income and education are compared. Share Asian, not Hispanic by US county | -0.38 | -0.04 |
| Republican swing, 2000 to 2024 and Share American Indian or Alaska Native, not HispanicCould easily be chance once only places with similar density, income and education are compared. Share American Indian or Alaska Native, not Hispanic by US county | +0.04 | -0.12 |
Highest and lowest
Of 3,111 counties reporting it. These are the two ends of a national ranking. For most measures, that ranking mostly sorts places by income and how urban they are. That is why the place pages compare each place with similar places instead.
Highest
- Jackson County, TN — 52
- Grundy County, TN — 50.6
- Smith County, TN — 50
- Mingo County, WV — 48.4
- Knott County, KY — 48.2
Lowest
- Rockdale County, GA — -39
- Henry County, GA — -33.2
- Douglas County, GA — -28.7
- Teton County, WY — -25.5
- Ouray County, CO — -25.3
The middle area reports 9.45. The middle half of counties falls between 1.82 and 16.3 (the 25th to 75th percentile).
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