Share White, not Hispanic and Property crime rate
Where Share White, not Hispanic is higher, Property crime rate tends to be lower. The link is weak: -0.38 across 2,281 counties, on a scale from −1 (opposite) to +1 (in step). That figure compares places with the same population density, income and education, so those differences can't explain it. It holds inside states too. Measured separately within each of 36 states, the middle value of the link is -0.41.
Holds after adjusting
Every place, plotted
One dot for each place reporting both measures. Hover over or tap a dot to see its name and values. The thin line is the straight line that best fits the dots. The bold line, shown for counties, is the link after adjusting for density, income and education. A dot far from the lines is a place that does not follow the pattern.
Loading every place…
What each measure is
Share White, not Hispanic
The percentage of residents who are White alone and not Hispanic or Latino. It comes from a table that sorts people by both race and Hispanic origin, so nobody is counted twice. The eight race and ethnicity shares here add up to exactly 100% in every county.
Census ACS 5-year · ACS table B03002_003, divided by total population
Property crime rate
Burglaries, thefts and motor vehicle thefts in the year, per 100,000 residents, from the FBI. Arson is not included. It counts only crimes reported to police or found by them, so crimes nobody reports are missing. For a state, the figure is the FBI's estimate, which fills in for police agencies that did not report. For a county, it is only what the agencies reported, and it is shown only where agencies that reported for all 12 months serve at least 90% of the people who live there.
FBI Uniform Crime Reporting program (Crime Data Explorer) · FBI Crime Data Explorer: states, estimated_crimes property_crime; counties, Return A master file, actual offenses
Highest and lowest
Where each measure is highest and lowest among the places reporting both (2023), with the other measure beside it. This is shown for every size of place where both are published. Metro-area values are added up from their counties. A measure that cannot be added up across counties, such as a middle value (median), has no metro figure. Counts are shown per 1,000 residents, since raw totals would only list the largest places. Cities and towns and ZIP codes are shown where the Census survey or the CDC publishes them; most other sources stop at the county. They are shown for places of 5,000 residents or more, and only where the survey’s margin of error is small enough for the figure to be usable. The CDC publishes its health estimates for cities in a version adjusted for age, so places with older or younger people can be compared fairly, but not for ZIP codes.
Counties
By share White, not Hispanic
| Share White, not Hispanic | Property crime rate | |
|---|---|---|
| Highest | ||
| Petroleum County, MT | 99.3% | 188 |
| Garfield County, MT | 97.8% | 81 |
| Magoffin County, KY | 97.6% | 195 |
| Holmes County, OH | 97.4% | 457 |
| Boone County, WV | 97.2% | 441 |
| Lowest | ||
| Starr County, TX | 2.15% | 917 |
| Maverick County, TX | 2.84% | 1,868 |
| Webb County, TX | 3.57% | 1,403 |
| Zapata County, TX | 4.57% | 527 |
| Hidalgo County, TX | 6.08% | 1,800 |
By property crime rate
| Share White, not Hispanic | Property crime rate | |
|---|---|---|
| Highest | ||
| Norton city, VA | 95.1% | 10,120 |
| Shelby County, TN | 33.3% | 6,516 |
| St. Louis city, MO | 44.4% | 6,440 |
| San Francisco County, CA | 37.5% | 5,790 |
| Denver County, CO | 54.6% | 5,769 |
| Lowest | ||
| Roberts County, TX | 86.5% | 0 |
| King County, TX | 67.2% | 0 |
| Oliver County, ND | 91.9% | 0 |
| Thomas County, NE | 88.2% | 0 |
| Stanton County, NE | 89.7% | 0 |
States
By share White, not Hispanic
| Share White, not Hispanic | Property crime rate | |
|---|---|---|
| Highest | ||
| Maine | 90.6% | 1,129 |
| Vermont | 90.6% | 1,818 |
| West Virginia | 90.2% | 1,189 |
| New Hampshire | 87.5% | 912 |
| Montana | 84.1% | 1,844 |
| Lowest | ||
| Hawaii | 21.1% | 2,143 |
| California | 34.6% | 2,326 |
| New Mexico | 36.5% | 2,876 |
| District of Columbia | 36.6% | 4,262 |
| Texas | 39.9% | 2,229 |
By property crime rate
| Share White, not Hispanic | Property crime rate | |
|---|---|---|
| Highest | ||
| District of Columbia | 36.6% | 4,262 |
| Colorado | 65.7% | 2,923 |
| Washington | 64.3% | 2,891 |
| New Mexico | 36.5% | 2,876 |
| Louisiana | 56.2% | 2,603 |
| Lowest | ||
| Idaho | 79.3% | 819 |
| New Hampshire | 87.5% | 912 |
| Rhode Island | 69.1% | 1,115 |
| Massachusetts | 67.8% | 1,119 |
| Maine | 90.6% | 1,129 |
Metro areas
By share White, not Hispanic
| Share White, not Hispanic | Property crime rate | |
|---|---|---|
| Highest | ||
| Pikeville, KY | 95.3% | 247 |
| Greenville, OH | 95.1% | 581 |
| Effingham, IL | 94.9% | 1,040 |
| Warren, PA | 94.9% | 821 |
| Coshocton, OH | 94.6% | 784 |
| Lowest | ||
| Rio Grande City-Roma, TX | 2.15% | 917 |
| Eagle Pass, TX | 2.84% | 1,868 |
| Laredo, TX | 3.57% | 1,403 |
| Zapata, TX | 4.57% | 527 |
| McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX | 6.08% | 1,800 |
By property crime rate
| Share White, not Hispanic | Property crime rate | |
|---|---|---|
| Highest | ||
| Memphis, TN-MS-AR | 40.9% | 5,158 |
| Lumberton, NC | 23.6% | 4,522 |
| Pueblo, CO | 51.6% | 4,270 |
| Albuquerque, NM | 38.1% | 4,065 |
| San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX | 32.9% | 3,864 |
| Lowest | ||
| Lexington, NE | 56.7% | 0 |
| Columbus, IN | 77.6% | 110 |
| Las Vegas, NM | 18% | 158 |
| Bedford, IN | 94.2% | 215 |
| Pikeville, KY | 95.3% | 247 |
Cities and towns — Property crime rate is not published for cities and towns
By share White, not Hispanic
| Share White, not Hispanic | Property crime rate | |
|---|---|---|
| Highest | ||
| Treasure Lake CDP, PA | 99.2% | — |
| Litchfield city, IL | 98.8% | — |
| Cicero town, IN | 98.2% | — |
| East Harwich CDP, MA | 98.1% | — |
| Wellston city, OH | 98.1% | — |
| Lowest | ||
| Mecca CDP, CA | 0% | — |
| Earlimart CDP, CA | 0% | — |
| Yabucoa zona urbana, PR | 0% | — |
| San Lorenzo zona urbana, PR | 0% | — |
| San Isidro comunidad, PR | 0% | — |
ZIP codes — Property crime rate is not published for ZIP codes
By share White, not Hispanic
| Share White, not Hispanic | Property crime rate | |
|---|---|---|
| Highest | ||
| ZIP 62056 (Montgomery County, IL) | 99% | — |
| ZIP 47558 (Daviess County, IN) | 98.9% | — |
| ZIP 47452 (Orange County, IN) | 98.7% | — |
| ZIP 44627 (Holmes County, OH) | 98.6% | — |
| ZIP 24609 (Tazewell County, VA) | 98.5% | — |
| Lowest | ||
| ZIP 00952 (Sabana Seca comunidad, PR) | 0% | — |
| ZIP 00782 (Comerío Municipio, PR) | 0% | — |
| ZIP 00780 (Ponce Municipio, PR) | 0% | — |
| ZIP 00731 (Ponce Municipio, PR) | 0% | — |
| ZIP 00723 (Patillas Municipio, PR) | 0% | — |
Counties furthest from the pattern
Compared with the straight line that best fits all 2,289 counties: the five with far more property crime rate than their share White, not Hispanic would suggest, and the five with far less.
| Share White, not Hispanic | Property crime rate | |
|---|---|---|
| Above the line | ||
| Norton city, VA | 95.1% | 10,120 |
| St. Louis city, MO | 44.4% | 6,440 |
| Shelby County, TN | 33.3% | 6,516 |
| Denver County, CO | 54.6% | 5,769 |
| Multnomah County, OR | 66.2% | 5,440 |
| Below the line | ||
| Sioux County, ND | 12.2% | 27.4 |
| Brooks County, TX | 8.19% | 234 |
| Presidio County, TX | 19.4% | 51.1 |
| Dewey County, SD | 20.2% | 101 |
| Mora County, NM | 22% | 158 |
Two series, one county
Both measures over time for a county you pick. The two charts are stacked, so they share only the years along the bottom. You can pick from the thirty largest counties reporting both. This panel covers 2010–2024, and a measure published only once shows as a single dot.
Loading…
Every version of the link
Each row measures the same link, from −1 to +1, in a different way. If the rows mostly agree, the link does not depend on one choice of method.
| Before adjusting for anything | -0.418 | 2,281 counties reporting both |
| After adjusting for density, income and education | -0.375 | the part of the link that is not just how urban, rich and educated a place is |
| Also adjusting for population size | -0.336 | size taken out as well as density |
| Also comparing only within each state | -0.221 | each county is compared only with others in its own state, so this is no longer a comparison between states |
| Giving bigger counties more weight | -0.400 | the adjusted link for the average resident rather than the average county. With this weighting, the data counts for about 227 equally weighted counties |
| Middle value inside single states | -0.415 | the link worked out inside each of 36 states with at least 20 counties reporting |
| Using ranks, after adjusting | -0.438 | uses each county’s rank, not its value, so a few extreme counties cannot create the link |
How much to believe it
Could it be chance?
The p-value is the chance of seeing a link this strong if there were really none. A value of 0.05 or less means the link is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 3.1e-16 means 0.00000000000000031, and the bigger the number after “e-”, the smaller the value. Treating every county as a separate case gives p = 5.7e-77. But counties in the same state tend to resemble each other, so the better figure allows for that: p = 8.4e-7. The site tested 29,403 pairs, and testing so many turns up some flukes. The q-value allows for that too. For this pair it is 4.8e-76.
Do nearby places look alike?
Moran’s I measures how much nearby places look alike: 0 means no map pattern, and higher means neighbours are more similar. For the part of each county that the adjustment leaves unexplained, it is +0.24 (p = 0.001). That unexplained part still clusters on the map. So some regional factor shared by both measures is not accounted for.
Did they change together?
The figures above compare counties at one moment. This asks a different question: where share White, not Hispanic rose most, did property crime ratemove too? Each county’s change is compared with the average change in its own state. That takes out ups and downs that hit a whole region at once. Each change is the gap between two estimates that both contain some error. That error pulls these links towards zero, so a weak one is weak partly for that reason. The q column shows whether a link could be a fluke, allowing for the many pairs tested: 0.05 or less means it is unlikely to be chance.
| Period | Counties | Change together | Within states | q |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014–2019 the main test: each Census survey figure averages five years, and these two do not overlap; before the pandemic | 2,018 | +0.05 | +0.04 | 0.513 |
| 2019–2023 a repeat check: its two five-year survey figures both include 2019, and it covers the COVID years | 1,882 | +0.06 | +0.07 | 0.125 |
Over the main period, any link between the changes could easily be chance. How change is measured.
Related pairs
- Share White, not Hispanic and Returns claiming the earned income credit — -0.73
- Share White, not Hispanic and Material security score — +0.68
- Share White, not Hispanic and Average test score — +0.66
- Share White, not Hispanic and Children in single-parent households — -0.65
- Share White, not Hispanic and Economic connectedness — +0.62
- Share White, not Hispanic and Republican share of the two-party vote, 2016 — +0.61
- Share never married and Share White, not Hispanic — -0.59
- Share White, not Hispanic and Republican share of the two-party vote, 2020 — +0.59
Association only. Nothing here shows that either measure changes the other. This describes counties, not the people in them. Two measures going together across places does not mean the same people have both. How the US county data works · Explore Share White, not Hispanic and Property crime rate