Share foreign-born and Presidential votes cast, 2016
Where Share foreign-born is higher, Presidential votes cast, 2016 tends to be higher. The link is weak: +0.36 across 2,404 counties, on a scale from −1 (opposite) to +1 (in step). That figure compares places with the same population density, income and education, so those differences can't explain it. It holds inside states too. Measured separately within each of 38 states, the middle value of the link is +0.49.
Holds after adjusting
Every place, plotted
One dot for each place reporting both measures. Hover over or tap a dot to see its name and values. The thin line is the straight line that best fits the dots. The bold line, shown for counties, is the link after adjusting for density, income and education. A dot far from the lines is a place that does not follow the pattern.
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What each measure is
Share foreign-born
The percentage of residents born outside the United States, whether or not they are citizens. The middle county is 2.7%, and the numbers are very uneven: Miami-Dade is 54% and Queens 48%, while half of all counties are under 3%. The count alone mostly ranks counties by size, which is why this percentage is shown next to it.
Census ACS 5-year · ACS table B05002_013, divided by total population
Presidential votes cast, 2016
Every presidential vote counted in 2016. It is a count, so it mostly follows population size. It is also used to give bigger places more weight when that year's vote shares are combined.
MIT Election Data and Science Lab · MIT county presidential returns
Highest and lowest
Where each measure is highest and lowest among the places reporting both (2023), with the other measure beside it. This is shown for every size of place where both are published. Metro-area values are added up from their counties. A measure that cannot be added up across counties, such as a middle value (median), has no metro figure. Counts are shown per 1,000 residents, since raw totals would only list the largest places. Cities and towns and ZIP codes are shown where the Census survey or the CDC publishes them; most other sources stop at the county. They are shown for places of 5,000 residents or more, and only where the survey’s margin of error is small enough for the figure to be usable. The CDC publishes its health estimates for cities in a version adjusted for age, so places with older or younger people can be compared fairly, but not for ZIP codes.
Counties
By share foreign-born
| Share foreign-born | Presidential votes cast, 2016, per 1,000 residents | |
|---|---|---|
| Highest | ||
| Miami-Dade County, FL | 54.3% | 365.02 |
| Queens County, NY | 47.6% | 294.57 |
| Hudson County, NJ | 42.6% | 308.78 |
| Santa Clara County, CA | 41% | 369.73 |
| Manassas Park city, VA | 36.6% | 309.17 |
| Lowest | ||
| Niobrara County, WY | 0% | 544.10 |
| Roberts County, TX | 0% | 705.73 |
| Cottle County, TX | 0% | 470.05 |
| Mellette County, SD | 0% | 334.31 |
| Haakon County, SD | 0% | 611.24 |
By presidential votes cast, 2016
| Share foreign-born | Presidential votes cast, 2016, per 1,000 residents | |
|---|---|---|
| Highest | ||
| Blaine County, NE | 0% | 823.38 |
| Garfield County, MT | 0% | 765.46 |
| Roberts County, TX | 0% | 705.73 |
| Keweenaw County, MI | 1.9% | 680.91 |
| Hooker County, NE | 0% | 680.26 |
| Lowest | ||
| Chattahoochee County, GA | 5.17% | 151.40 |
| Starr County, TX | 27.5% | 178.40 |
| Hidalgo County, TX | 26% | 196.88 |
| Geary County, KS | 7.61% | 209.05 |
| Gaines County, TX | 24.3% | 210.92 |
States — Presidential votes cast, 2016 is not published for states
By share foreign-born
| Share foreign-born | Presidential votes cast, 2016, per 1,000 residents | |
|---|---|---|
| Highest | ||
| California | 26.7% | — |
| New Jersey | 23.5% | — |
| New York | 22.6% | — |
| Florida | 21.4% | — |
| Nevada | 19% | — |
| Lowest | ||
| West Virginia | 1.71% | — |
| Montana | 2.29% | — |
| Mississippi | 2.39% | — |
| Puerto Rico | 2.72% | — |
| Wyoming | 3.51% | — |
Metro areas
By share foreign-born
| Share foreign-born | Presidential votes cast, 2016, per 1,000 residents | |
|---|---|---|
| Highest | ||
| Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL | 41.9% | 400.20 |
| San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA | 40.3% | 372.93 |
| Nogales, AZ | 34.1% | 334.29 |
| Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA | 32.5% | 361.88 |
| San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA | 31.6% | 433.53 |
| Lowest | ||
| Wapakoneta, OH | 0.517% | 513.07 |
| Coshocton, OH | 0.548% | 421.82 |
| Pikeville, KY | 0.62% | 455.83 |
| Lewistown, PA | 0.697% | 405.06 |
| Escanaba, MI | 0.711% | 502.64 |
By presidential votes cast, 2016
| Share foreign-born | Presidential votes cast, 2016, per 1,000 residents | |
|---|---|---|
| Highest | ||
| Port Townsend, WA | 5.27% | 601.41 |
| Barnstable Town, MA | 9.6% | 577.64 |
| Boulder, CO | 10% | 575.65 |
| Spirit Lake, IA | 1.75% | 573.44 |
| Gardnerville Ranchos, NV-CA | 5.66% | 562.03 |
| Lowest | ||
| Rio Grande City-Roma, TX | 27.5% | 178.06 |
| McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX | 26% | 193.04 |
| Laredo, TX | 25.3% | 211.43 |
| Brownsville-Harlingen, TX | 22.7% | 215.79 |
| Odessa, TX | 16.6% | 222.07 |
Cities and towns — Presidential votes cast, 2016 is not published for cities and towns
By share foreign-born
| Share foreign-born | Presidential votes cast, 2016, per 1,000 residents | |
|---|---|---|
| Highest | ||
| Sweetwater city, FL | 75% | — |
| Hialeah city, FL | 74.7% | — |
| Fountainebleau CDP, FL | 73.7% | — |
| Hialeah Gardens city, FL | 71.3% | — |
| Doral city, FL | 70.7% | — |
| Lowest | ||
| Kayenta CDP, AZ | 0% | — |
| Odenville city, AL | 0% | — |
| Monroeville city, AL | 0% | — |
| Margaret town, AL | 0% | — |
| Nitro city, WV | 0% | — |
ZIP codes — Presidential votes cast, 2016 is not published for ZIP codes
By share foreign-born
| Share foreign-born | Presidential votes cast, 2016, per 1,000 residents | |
|---|---|---|
| Highest | ||
| ZIP 33010 (Hialeah city, FL) | 78.5% | — |
| ZIP 33012 (Hialeah city, FL) | 75.8% | — |
| ZIP 33126 (Miami city, FL) | 75.6% | — |
| ZIP 33135 (Miami city, FL) | 74.3% | — |
| ZIP 33013 (Hialeah city, FL) | 74.1% | — |
| Lowest | ||
| ZIP 00782 (Comerío Municipio, PR) | 0% | — |
| ZIP 00780 (Ponce Municipio, PR) | 0% | — |
| ZIP 72416 (Craighead County, AR) | 0% | — |
| ZIP 71328 (Rapides Parish, LA) | 0% | — |
| ZIP 71225 (Ouachita Parish, LA) | 0% | — |
Counties furthest from the pattern
Compared with the straight line that best fits all 2,409 counties: the five with far more presidential votes cast, 2016 than their share foreign-born would suggest, and the five with far less.
| Share foreign-born | Presidential votes cast, 2016, per 1,000 residents | |
|---|---|---|
| Above the line | ||
| Blaine County, NE | 0% | 823.38 |
| Garfield County, MT | 0% | 765.46 |
| Roberts County, TX | 0% | 705.73 |
| Boyd County, NE | 3.87% | 678.40 |
| Keweenaw County, MI | 1.9% | 680.91 |
| Below the line | ||
| Chattahoochee County, GA | 5.17% | 151.40 |
| Geary County, KS | 7.61% | 209.05 |
| Todd County, SD | 3.39% | 228.67 |
| LaGrange County, IN | 1.98% | 235.64 |
| Coryell County, TX | 6.24% | 217.89 |
Two series, one county
Both measures over time for a county you pick. The two charts are stacked, so they share only the years along the bottom. You can pick from the thirty largest counties reporting both. This panel covers 2010–2024, and a measure published only once shows as a single dot.
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Every version of the link
Each row measures the same link, from −1 to +1, in a different way. If the rows mostly agree, the link does not depend on one choice of method.
| Before adjusting for anything | +0.493 | 2,404 counties reporting both |
| After adjusting for density, income and education | +0.362 | the part of the link that is not just how urban, rich and educated a place is |
| Also adjusting for population size | +0.306 | size taken out as well as density |
| Also comparing only within each state | +0.282 | each county is compared only with others in its own state, so this is no longer a comparison between states |
| Giving bigger counties more weight | +0.413 | the adjusted link for the average resident rather than the average county. With this weighting, the data counts for about 274 equally weighted counties |
| Middle value inside single states | +0.492 | the link worked out inside each of 38 states with at least 20 counties reporting |
| Using ranks, after adjusting | +0.058 | uses each county’s rank, not its value, so a few extreme counties cannot create the link |
How much to believe it
Could it be chance?
The p-value is the chance of seeing a link this strong if there were really none. A value of 0.05 or less means the link is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 3.1e-16 means 0.00000000000000031, and the bigger the number after “e-”, the smaller the value. Treating every county as a separate case gives p = 2.4e-75. But counties in the same state tend to resemble each other, so the better figure allows for that: p = 2.5e-5. The site tested 20,910 pairs, and testing so many turns up some flukes. The q-value allows for that too. For this pair it is 1.7e-74.
Do nearby places look alike?
Moran’s I measures how much nearby places look alike: 0 means no map pattern, and higher means neighbours are more similar. For the part of each county that the adjustment leaves unexplained, it is +0.17 (p = 0.001). That unexplained part still clusters on the map. So some regional factor shared by both measures is not accounted for.
Did they change together?
Not measurable: at least one of these is published for too few of the years a change needs (2014–2019 or 2019–2023), or for too few counties in both.
Related pairs
- Median gross rent and Share foreign-born — +0.49
- Homeownership rate and Share foreign-born — -0.46
- Share foreign-born and Local income tax collected — +0.46
- Share foreign-born and Population (firearm measures) — +0.41
- Share foreign-born and Personal income — +0.40
- Share foreign-born and Population — +0.40
- Share foreign-born and Population (WONDER) — +0.40
- Aggregate travel time to work and Share foreign-born — +0.40
Association only. Nothing here shows that either measure changes the other. This describes counties, not the people in them. Two measures going together across places does not mean the same people have both. How the US county data works · Explore Share foreign-born and Presidential votes cast, 2016