Poverty rate and Returns reporting capital gains
Where Poverty rate is higher, Returns reporting capital gains tends to be lower. The link is weak: -0.38 across 3,062 counties, on a scale from −1 (opposite) to +1 (in step). That figure compares places with the same population density, income and education, so those differences can't explain it. It holds inside states too. Measured separately within each of 40 states, the middle value of the link is -0.53.
Holds after adjusting
Every place, plotted
One dot for each place reporting both measures. Hover over or tap a dot to see its name and values. The thin line is the straight line that best fits the dots. The bold line, shown for counties, is the link after adjusting for density, income and education. A dot far from the lines is a place that does not follow the pattern.
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What each measure is
Poverty rate
The percentage of people whose family income is below the federal poverty line. The line depends on how many people are in the family and their ages.
Census ACS 5-year · ACS table B17001_002, divided by population for whom poverty status is determined
Returns reporting capital gains
The percentage of tax returns reporting a capital gain: profit from selling something like stock or property.
IRS Statistics of Income · IRS SOI N01000 / N1
Highest and lowest
Where each measure is highest and lowest among the places reporting both (2023), with the other measure beside it. This is shown for every size of place where both are published. Metro-area values are added up from their counties. A measure that cannot be added up across counties, such as a middle value (median), has no metro figure. Counts are shown per 1,000 residents, since raw totals would only list the largest places. Cities and towns and ZIP codes are shown where the Census survey or the CDC publishes them; most other sources stop at the county. They are shown for places of 5,000 residents or more, and only where the survey’s margin of error is small enough for the figure to be usable. The CDC publishes its health estimates for cities in a version adjusted for age, so places with older or younger people can be compared fairly, but not for ZIP codes.
Counties
By poverty rate
| Poverty rate | Returns reporting capital gains | |
|---|---|---|
| Highest | ||
| Oglala Lakota County, SD | 52.8% | 2.63% |
| Todd County, SD | 49% | 5.82% |
| Mellette County, SD | 46.2% | 22.9% |
| Corson County, SD | 45.2% | 18.8% |
| Dimmit County, TX | 44.8% | 3.69% |
| Lowest | ||
| Nantucket County, MA | 3.03% | 23% |
| Douglas County, CO | 3.23% | 31.9% |
| Powhatan County, VA | 3.26% | 24.6% |
| Falls Church city, VA | 3.64% | 41.9% |
| Hunterdon County, NJ | 3.85% | 35.3% |
By returns reporting capital gains
| Poverty rate | Returns reporting capital gains | |
|---|---|---|
| Highest | ||
| McPherson County, NE | 7.13% | 45% |
| Garfield County, MT | 12.2% | 44.4% |
| Carter County, MT | 13.8% | 44.1% |
| Marin County, CA | 7.83% | 43.9% |
| Blaine County, NE | 10.6% | 43.5% |
| Lowest | ||
| Kusilvak Census Area, AK | 31.2% | 0.722% |
| Starr County, TX | 33.5% | 2.19% |
| Maverick County, TX | 22.6% | 2.5% |
| Oglala Lakota County, SD | 52.8% | 2.63% |
| Zavala County, TX | 36.3% | 2.76% |
States
By poverty rate
| Poverty rate | Returns reporting capital gains | |
|---|---|---|
| Highest | ||
| Mississippi | 19.1% | 10.1% |
| Louisiana | 18.9% | 13.1% |
| New Mexico | 18.1% | 13.4% |
| West Virginia | 16.6% | 11.2% |
| Kentucky | 16.1% | 13.6% |
| Lowest | ||
| New Hampshire | 7.16% | 22% |
| Utah | 8.56% | 16.8% |
| Minnesota | 9.2% | 21.5% |
| Maryland | 9.35% | 18.4% |
| Colorado | 9.38% | 21.9% |
By returns reporting capital gains
| Poverty rate | Returns reporting capital gains | |
|---|---|---|
| Highest | ||
| District of Columbia | 14.5% | 23.9% |
| Washington | 9.91% | 23.4% |
| Massachusetts | 9.98% | 22.8% |
| New Jersey | 9.77% | 22.4% |
| Connecticut | 10% | 22.3% |
| Lowest | ||
| Mississippi | 19.1% | 10.1% |
| West Virginia | 16.6% | 11.2% |
| Alabama | 15.6% | 12.8% |
| Louisiana | 18.9% | 13.1% |
| New Mexico | 18.1% | 13.4% |
Metro areas
By poverty rate
| Poverty rate | Returns reporting capital gains | |
|---|---|---|
| Highest | ||
| Zapata, TX | 37.4% | 3.86% |
| Clarksdale, MS | 36.3% | 7.02% |
| Gallup, NM | 35.7% | 3.21% |
| Cleveland, MS | 33.7% | 9.47% |
| Rio Grande City-Roma, TX | 33.5% | 2.19% |
| Lowest | ||
| Nantucket, MA | 3.03% | 23% |
| Heber, UT | 4.82% | 33.1% |
| Vineyard Haven, MA | 5.38% | 26.2% |
| Hood River, OR | 5.49% | 22.9% |
| Lexington Park, MD | 5.89% | 17.5% |
By returns reporting capital gains
| Poverty rate | Returns reporting capital gains | |
|---|---|---|
| Highest | ||
| Wildwood-The Villages, FL | 9.06% | 37.9% |
| San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA | 6.9% | 36.3% |
| Jackson, WY-ID | 7.84% | 35.2% |
| Boulder, CO | 11.4% | 34.6% |
| Heber, UT | 4.82% | 33.1% |
| Lowest | ||
| Rio Grande City-Roma, TX | 33.5% | 2.19% |
| Eagle Pass, TX | 22.6% | 2.5% |
| Gallup, NM | 35.7% | 3.21% |
| Raymondville, TX | 24.6% | 3.64% |
| El Centro, CA | 19.6% | 3.72% |
Cities and towns — Returns reporting capital gains is not published for cities and towns
By poverty rate
| Poverty rate | Returns reporting capital gains | |
|---|---|---|
| Highest | ||
| Isla Vista CDP, CA | 69.3% | — |
| University of California-Davis CDP, CA | 67.7% | — |
| Caño Martin Peña comunidad, PR | 63% | — |
| Guánica zona urbana, PR | 62.1% | — |
| Utuado zona urbana, PR | 62% | — |
| Lowest | ||
| Linton Hall CDP, VA | 1.54% | — |
| Huntington Woods city, MI | 1.65% | — |
| Trussville city, AL | 1.65% | — |
| Hugo city, MN | 1.73% | — |
| Franklin Farm CDP, VA | 1.8% | — |
ZIP codes — Returns reporting capital gains is not published for ZIP codes
By poverty rate
| Poverty rate | Returns reporting capital gains | |
|---|---|---|
| Highest | ||
| ZIP 22807 (Harrisonburg city, VA) | 100% | — |
| ZIP 33620 (Tampa city, FL) | 100% | — |
| ZIP 48825 (East Lansing city, MI) | 100% | — |
| ZIP 55455 (Minneapolis city, MN) | 100% | — |
| ZIP 80310 (Boulder city, CO) | 100% | — |
| Lowest | ||
| ZIP 92136 (San Diego city, CA) | 0% | — |
| ZIP 12222 (Albany city, NY) | 0% | — |
| ZIP 54913 (Outagamie County, WI) | 1.42% | — |
| ZIP 55038 (Hugo city, MN) | 1.52% | — |
| ZIP 76226 (Denton County, TX) | 1.53% | — |
Counties furthest from the pattern
Compared with the straight line that best fits all 3,071 counties: the five with far more returns reporting capital gains than their poverty rate would suggest, and the five with far less.
| Poverty rate | Returns reporting capital gains | |
|---|---|---|
| Above the line | ||
| Mellette County, SD | 46.2% | 22.9% |
| Carter County, MT | 13.8% | 44.1% |
| Garfield County, MT | 12.2% | 44.4% |
| Ziebach County, SD | 38.2% | 26% |
| Blaine County, NE | 10.6% | 43.5% |
| Below the line | ||
| North Slope Borough, AK | 8.35% | 3.8% |
| Aleutians West Census Area, AK | 9.24% | 5.7% |
| Manassas Park city, VA | 5.8% | 8.62% |
| Tooele County, UT | 4.69% | 9.65% |
| Pleasants County, WV | 8% | 7.76% |
Two series, one county
Both measures over time for a county you pick. The two charts are stacked, so they share only the years along the bottom. You can pick from the thirty largest counties reporting both. This panel covers 2010–2024, and a measure published only once shows as a single dot.
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Every version of the link
Each row measures the same link, from −1 to +1, in a different way. If the rows mostly agree, the link does not depend on one choice of method.
| Before adjusting for anything | -0.610 | 3,062 counties reporting both |
| After adjusting for density, income and education | -0.382 | the part of the link that is not just how urban, rich and educated a place is |
| Also adjusting for population size | -0.374 | size taken out as well as density |
| Also comparing only within each state | -0.279 | each county is compared only with others in its own state, so this is no longer a comparison between states |
| Giving bigger counties more weight | -0.204 | the adjusted link for the average resident rather than the average county. With this weighting, the data counts for about 287 equally weighted counties |
| Middle value inside single states | -0.531 | the link worked out inside each of 40 states with at least 20 counties reporting |
| Using ranks, after adjusting | -0.349 | uses each county’s rank, not its value, so a few extreme counties cannot create the link |
How much to believe it
Could it be chance?
The p-value is the chance of seeing a link this strong if there were really none. A value of 0.05 or less means the link is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 3.1e-16 means 0.00000000000000031, and the bigger the number after “e-”, the smaller the value. Treating every county as a separate case gives p = 4.8e-107. But counties in the same state tend to resemble each other, so the better figure allows for that: p = 4.3e-8. The site tested 20,910 pairs, and testing so many turns up some flukes. The q-value allows for that too. For this pair it is 4.0e-106.
Do nearby places look alike?
Moran’s I measures how much nearby places look alike: 0 means no map pattern, and higher means neighbours are more similar. For the part of each county that the adjustment leaves unexplained, it is +0.46 (p = 0.001). That unexplained part still clusters on the map. So some regional factor shared by both measures is not accounted for.
Did they change together?
The figures above compare counties at one moment. This asks a different question: where poverty rate rose most, did returns reporting capital gainsmove too? Each county’s change is compared with the average change in its own state. That takes out ups and downs that hit a whole region at once. Each change is the gap between two estimates that both contain some error. That error pulls these links towards zero, so a weak one is weak partly for that reason. The q column shows whether a link could be a fluke, allowing for the many pairs tested: 0.05 or less means it is unlikely to be chance.
| Period | Counties | Change together | Within states | q |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014–2019 the main test: each Census survey figure averages five years, and these two do not overlap; before the pandemic | 3,069 | +0.00 | +0.02 | 0.608 |
| 2019–2023 a repeat check: its two five-year survey figures both include 2019, and it covers the COVID years | 3,045 | +0.00 | -0.01 | 0.876 |
Over the main period, any link between the changes could easily be chance. How change is measured.
Related pairs
- Median household income and Poverty rate — -0.76
- Poverty rate and Returns claiming the earned income credit — +0.62
- Returns reporting capital gains and Adult income rank of children raised poor here — +0.55
- Share with a bachelor's degree or higher and Returns reporting capital gains — +0.55
- Poverty rate and Homicide rate, annual — +0.55
- Returns reporting capital gains and Social connection score — +0.54
- Poverty rate and Share White, not Hispanic — -0.54
- Binge drinking and Returns reporting capital gains — +0.54
Association only. Nothing here shows that either measure changes the other. This describes counties, not the people in them. Two measures going together across places does not mean the same people have both. How the US county data works · Explore Poverty rate and Returns reporting capital gains