Women who gave birth in the past year and Longest dry spell
Where Women who gave birth in the past year is higher, Longest dry spell tends to be higher. The link is weak: +0.30 across 2,144 counties, on a scale from −1 (opposite) to +1 (in step). That figure compares places with the same population density, income and education, so those differences can't explain it. It holds inside states too. Measured separately within each of 35 states, the middle value of the link is +0.07.
Holds after adjusting
Every place, plotted
One dot for each place reporting both measures. Hover over or tap a dot to see its name and values. The thin line is the straight line that best fits the dots. The bold line, shown for counties, is the link after adjusting for density, income and education. A dot far from the lines is a place that does not follow the pattern.
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What each measure is
Women who gave birth in the past year
The number of women who said they gave birth in the past twelve months.
Census ACS 5-year · ACS table B13002_002
Longest dry spell
The most days in a row in the year without a wet day, meaning a day with a tenth of an inch of rain or more. It counts only inside the calendar year, so a dry spell that runs past New Year's Day is split in two. The rain is the county average of NOAA's daily map of weather station readings, made of squares about 3 miles wide. A state's figure is the average of its counties, each weighted by its land area. Lower 48 states only, from 1951.
NOAA NCEI nClimGrid-Daily · NOAA NCEI nClimGrid-Daily v1.0.0 county averages (prcp/tmax/tmin, scaled), longest_dry_spell; states, counties averaged by land area
Highest and lowest
Where each measure is highest and lowest among the places reporting both (2023), with the other measure beside it. This is shown for every size of place where both are published. Metro-area values are added up from their counties. A measure that cannot be added up across counties, such as a middle value (median), has no metro figure. Counts are shown per 1,000 residents, since raw totals would only list the largest places. Cities and towns and ZIP codes are shown where the Census survey or the CDC publishes them; most other sources stop at the county. They are shown for places of 5,000 residents or more, and only where the survey’s margin of error is small enough for the figure to be usable. The CDC publishes its health estimates for cities in a version adjusted for age, so places with older or younger people can be compared fairly, but not for ZIP codes.
Counties
By women who gave birth in the past year
| Women who gave birth in the past year, per 1,000 residents | Longest dry spell | |
|---|---|---|
| Highest | ||
| Grant County, KS | 62.19 | 57 |
| Madison County, FL | 35.28 | 32 |
| Haskell County, KS | 32.48 | 57 |
| George County, MS | 32.33 | 29 |
| Highland County, VA | 31.35 | 19 |
| Lowest | ||
| Jackson County, CO | 0.00 | 21 |
| Huerfano County, CO | 0.00 | 36 |
| Roberts County, TX | 0.00 | 39 |
| Real County, TX | 0.00 | 51 |
| Menard County, TX | 0.00 | 55 |
By longest dry spell
| Women who gave birth in the past year, per 1,000 residents | Longest dry spell | |
|---|---|---|
| Highest | ||
| San Joaquin County, CA | 12.52 | 206 |
| Kings County, CA | 17.71 | 198 |
| San Luis Obispo County, CA | 9.34 | 197 |
| Merced County, CA | 14.07 | 184 |
| Contra Costa County, CA | 12.88 | 172 |
| Lowest | ||
| Wise County, VA | 10.94 | 10 |
| Union County, TN | 8.14 | 10 |
| Bell County, KY | 7.62 | 10 |
| Pike County, KY | 8.23 | 11 |
| Letcher County, KY | 11.73 | 11 |
States
By women who gave birth in the past year
| Women who gave birth in the past year, per 1,000 residents | Longest dry spell | |
|---|---|---|
| Highest | ||
| Utah | 14.54 | 48.4 |
| North Dakota | 14.35 | 49.5 |
| South Dakota | 14.02 | 48.1 |
| Texas | 13.94 | 56.8 |
| Wyoming | 13.78 | 34.3 |
| Lowest | ||
| Vermont | 8.76 | 16.6 |
| New Hampshire | 9.53 | 18.4 |
| Connecticut | 10.16 | 22.6 |
| Maine | 10.20 | 17.1 |
| Oregon | 10.44 | 52.4 |
By longest dry spell
| Women who gave birth in the past year, per 1,000 residents | Longest dry spell | |
|---|---|---|
| Highest | ||
| California | 11.68 | 111 |
| Arizona | 12.04 | 82.9 |
| New Mexico | 12.35 | 71.2 |
| Texas | 13.94 | 56.8 |
| Nevada | 11.87 | 55.1 |
| Lowest | ||
| Vermont | 8.76 | 16.6 |
| Maine | 10.20 | 17.1 |
| New Hampshire | 9.53 | 18.4 |
| West Virginia | 10.57 | 18.5 |
| New York | 11.58 | 19.3 |
Metro areas
By women who gave birth in the past year
| Women who gave birth in the past year, per 1,000 residents | Longest dry spell | |
|---|---|---|
| Highest | ||
| Cody, WY | 24.43 | 19 |
| Mexico, MO | 23.74 | 21 |
| Vernal, UT | 23.68 | 38 |
| Decatur, IN | 23.01 | 22 |
| Midland, TX | 22.88 | 98.6 |
| Lowest | ||
| Las Vegas, NM | 0.00 | 52 |
| Eufaula, AL-GA | 0.00 | 28 |
| Hailey, ID | 2.24 | 45.7 |
| Hannibal, MO | 3.17 | 22.9 |
| Weirton-Steubenville, WV-OH | 4.87 | 21 |
By longest dry spell
| Women who gave birth in the past year, per 1,000 residents | Longest dry spell | |
|---|---|---|
| Highest | ||
| Stockton-Lodi, CA | 12.31 | 206 |
| Hanford-Corcoran, CA | 17.73 | 198 |
| San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles, CA | 9.33 | 197 |
| Merced, CA | 13.77 | 184 |
| San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA | 11.76 | 170 |
| Lowest | ||
| Middlesborough, KY | 7.81 | 10 |
| Oneonta, NY | 12.91 | 12 |
| Beckley, WV | 6.26 | 12 |
| Pikeville, KY | 5.23 | 12.7 |
| Elkins, WV | 8.56 | 13 |
Cities and towns — Longest dry spell is not published for cities and towns
By women who gave birth in the past year
| Women who gave birth in the past year, per 1,000 residents | Longest dry spell | |
|---|---|---|
| Highest | ||
| Kaser village, NY | 78.66 | — |
| Kiryas Joel village, NY | 51.38 | — |
| New Square village, NY | 49.01 | — |
| Fort Lewis CDP, WA | 48.06 | — |
| Monsey CDP, NY | 45.96 | — |
| Lowest | ||
| Northford CDP, CT | 0.00 | — |
| Dove Valley CDP, CO | 0.00 | — |
| Wilton CDP, CA | 0.00 | — |
| Templeton CDP, CA | 0.00 | — |
| Sun Village CDP, CA | 0.00 | — |
ZIP codes — Longest dry spell is not published for ZIP codes
By women who gave birth in the past year
| Women who gave birth in the past year, per 1,000 residents | Longest dry spell | |
|---|---|---|
| Highest | ||
| ZIP 45204 (Cincinnati city, OH) | 66.15 | — |
| ZIP 67880 (Grant County, KS) | 61.92 | — |
| ZIP 30628 (Madison County, GA) | 58.95 | — |
| ZIP 80902 (El Paso County, CO) | 50.18 | — |
| ZIP 71459 (Fort Polk South CDP, LA) | 46.28 | — |
| Lowest | ||
| ZIP 08853 (Neshanic Station CDP, NJ) | 0.00 | — |
| ZIP 08810 (Middlesex County, NJ) | 0.00 | — |
| ZIP 08758 (Ocean County, NJ) | 0.00 | — |
| ZIP 08091 (Camden County, NJ) | 0.00 | — |
| ZIP 08007 (Barrington borough, NJ) | 0.00 | — |
Counties furthest from the pattern
Compared with the straight line that best fits all 2,147 counties: the five with far more longest dry spell than their women who gave birth in the past year would suggest, and the five with far less.
| Women who gave birth in the past year, per 1,000 residents | Longest dry spell | |
|---|---|---|
| Above the line | ||
| San Joaquin County, CA | 12.52 | 206 |
| San Luis Obispo County, CA | 9.34 | 197 |
| Kings County, CA | 17.71 | 198 |
| Merced County, CA | 14.07 | 184 |
| Sacramento County, CA | 12.59 | 172 |
| Below the line | ||
| Wise County, VA | 10.94 | 10 |
| Knox County, KY | 13.62 | 11 |
| Dickenson County, VA | 14.66 | 12 |
| Letcher County, KY | 11.73 | 11 |
| Union County, TN | 8.14 | 10 |
Two series, one county
Both measures over time for a county you pick. The two charts are stacked, so they share only the years along the bottom. You can pick from the thirty largest counties reporting both. This panel covers 2010–2024, and a measure published only once shows as a single dot.
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Every version of the link
Each row measures the same link, from −1 to +1, in a different way. If the rows mostly agree, the link does not depend on one choice of method.
| Before adjusting for anything | +0.233 | 2,144 counties reporting both |
| After adjusting for density, income and education | +0.300 | the part of the link that is not just how urban, rich and educated a place is |
| Also adjusting for population size | +0.170 | size taken out as well as density |
| Also comparing only within each state | +0.052 | each county is compared only with others in its own state, so this is no longer a comparison between states |
| Also holding winter sunshine equal | +0.269 | compares counties that get the same sunlight in winter as well. If this is much weaker, part of the link is a difference between sunny and grey regions (more) |
| Giving bigger counties more weight | +0.473 | the adjusted link for the average resident rather than the average county. With this weighting, the data counts for about 267 equally weighted counties |
| Middle value inside single states | +0.073 | the link worked out inside each of 35 states with at least 20 counties reporting |
| Using ranks, after adjusting | +0.279 | uses each county’s rank, not its value, so a few extreme counties cannot create the link |
How much to believe it
Could it be chance?
The p-value is the chance of seeing a link this strong if there were really none. A value of 0.05 or less means the link is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 3.1e-16 means 0.00000000000000031, and the bigger the number after “e-”, the smaller the value. Treating every county as a separate case gives p = 1.0e-45. But counties in the same state tend to resemble each other, so the better figure allows for that: p = 3.1e-7. The site tested 32,131 pairs, and testing so many turns up some flukes. The q-value allows for that too. For this pair it is 6.0e-45.
Do nearby places look alike?
Moran’s I measures how much nearby places look alike: 0 means no map pattern, and higher means neighbours are more similar. For the part of each county that the adjustment leaves unexplained, it is +0.72 (p = 0.001). That unexplained part still clusters on the map. So some regional factor shared by both measures is not accounted for.
Did they change together?
The figures above compare counties at one moment. This asks a different question: where women who gave birth in the past year rose most, did longest dry spellmove too? Each county’s change is compared with the average change in its own state. That takes out ups and downs that hit a whole region at once. Each change is the gap between two estimates that both contain some error. That error pulls these links towards zero, so a weak one is weak partly for that reason. The q column shows whether a link could be a fluke, allowing for the many pairs tested: 0.05 or less means it is unlikely to be chance.
| Period | Counties | Change together | Within states | q |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014–2019 the main test: each Census survey figure averages five years, and these two do not overlap; before the pandemic | 2,087 | -0.03 | -0.00 | 0.997 |
| 2019–2023 a repeat check: its two five-year survey figures both include 2019, and it covers the COVID years | 1,990 | +0.02 | +0.01 | 0.791 |
Over the main period, any link between the changes could easily be chance. How change is measured.
Related pairs
- Share Hispanic or Latino, any race and Longest dry spell — +0.55
- Women who gave birth in the past year and Share of days with unhealthy air — +0.52
- Share foreign-born and Longest dry spell — +0.50
- Longest dry spell and Cloud cover — -0.48
- Longest dry spell and Clear days — +0.48
- Routine checkup in the past year and Longest dry spell — -0.47
- Longest dry spell and Daily sunlight — +0.46
- Share White, not Hispanic and Longest dry spell — -0.45
Association only. Nothing here shows that either measure changes the other. This describes counties, not the people in them. Two measures going together across places does not mean the same people have both. How the US county data works · Explore Women who gave birth in the past year and Longest dry spell