Republican share of the two-party vote, 2016
The Republican candidate's share of the votes for the two main parties in the 2016 presidential election. Third-party votes are left out, so they do not push it up or down.
Reported for3,113areas, in 50 states — none in AK, PR
Link to density0.45not mostly about how urban a place is
Nearby places alike0.60Moran’s I: strongly, neighbouring places tend to be similar
Typerate% of the two-party vote
How it has moved
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Every state, every year
Nothing to draw here: this measure has no state figures. Its publisher reports it for counties. This site does not add county numbers up into state figures, since a home-made figure could clash with one an agency publishes itself. The chart above covers the whole country, year by year.
Where it comes from
MIT Election Data and Science Lab · MIT county presidential returns
Republican votes divided by Republican plus Democratic votes. Votes for third parties are left out. So a county where a third party did well does not look less Republican for that reason alone. Time period: from the 2016 presidential election; how a county votes changes slowly, so an election result is a fair stand-in for how it leans now, but it is not a direct measure of that.
Combining areas: an average weighted by presidential votes cast, 2016.
What it goes with
The strongest links that have a page of their own. Unadjusted is the link before adjusting for anything, from −1 (opposite) to +1 (in step). Adjusted compares places with the same population density, income and education levels, so those differences can’t explain the link. This list leaves out the 6 pairs built from the same numbers or the same model as this measure, since they are bound to match.
| Measure | Unadjusted | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|
| Republican share of the two-party vote, 2016 and Housing insecurityWhere Republican share of the two-party vote, 2016 is higher, Housing insecurity tends to be lower: a moderate link that holds when only places with similar density, income and education are compared, and inside states as well. Housing insecurity by US county | -0.33 | -0.62 |
| Republican share of the two-party vote, 2016 and Lack of reliable transportationWhere Republican share of the two-party vote, 2016 is higher, Lack of reliable transportation tends to be lower: a moderate link that holds when only places with similar density, income and education are compared, and inside states as well. Lack of reliable transportation by US county | -0.28 | -0.61 |
| Republican share of the two-party vote, 2016 and Share White, not HispanicWhere Republican share of the two-party vote, 2016 is higher, Share White, not Hispanic tends to be higher: a moderate link that holds when only places with similar density, income and education are compared, and inside states as well. Share White, not Hispanic by US county | +0.57 | +0.61 |
| Republican share of the two-party vote, 2016 and Food insecurityWhere Republican share of the two-party vote, 2016 is higher, Food insecurity tends to be lower: a moderate link that holds when only places with similar density, income and education are compared, and inside states as well. Food insecurity by US county | -0.27 | -0.60 |
| Republican share of the two-party vote, 2016 and Received food stampsWhere Republican share of the two-party vote, 2016 is higher, Received food stamps tends to be lower: a moderate link that holds when only places with similar density, income and education are compared, and inside states as well. Received food stamps by US county | -0.29 | -0.58 |
| Republican share of the two-party vote, 2016 and Share never marriedWhere Republican share of the two-party vote, 2016 is higher, Share never married tends to be lower: a moderate link that holds when only places with similar density, income and education are compared, and inside states as well. Share never married by US county | -0.67 | -0.58 |
| Republican share of the two-party vote, 2016 and Share now marriedWhere Republican share of the two-party vote, 2016 is higher, Share now married tends to be higher: a moderate link that holds when only places with similar density, income and education are compared, and inside states as well. Share now married by US county | +0.53 | +0.57 |
| Republican share of the two-party vote, 2016 and Lacking social and emotional supportWhere Republican share of the two-party vote, 2016 is higher, Lacking social and emotional support tends to be lower: a moderate link that holds when only places with similar density, income and education are compared, and inside states as well. Lacking social and emotional support by US county | -0.34 | -0.57 |
| Republican share of the two-party vote, 2016 and Cancer other than skin cancerWhere Republican share of the two-party vote, 2016 is higher, Cancer other than skin cancer tends to be higher: a moderate link that holds when only places with similar density, income and education are compared, and inside states as well. Cancer other than skin cancer by US county | +0.44 | +0.56 |
| Republican share of the two-party vote, 2016 and Share Black, not HispanicWhere Republican share of the two-party vote, 2016 is higher, Share Black, not Hispanic tends to be lower: a moderate link that holds when only places with similar density, income and education are compared, and inside states as well. Share Black, not Hispanic by US county | -0.46 | -0.55 |
Population makeup
How this measure varies with the racial and ethnic makeup of counties. Every group is shown, whatever its rank. These are links across counties: they describe places, not people. They say nothing about any person’s risk or behaviour based on their race. Counties with a larger share of one group also differ in much else, such as income, segregation, region and history. The adjusted figure only accounts for density, income and education.
| Share of residents | Unadjusted | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|
| Republican share of the two-party vote, 2016 and Share White, not HispanicWhere Republican share of the two-party vote, 2016 is higher, Share White, not Hispanic tends to be higher: a moderate link that holds when only places with similar density, income and education are compared, and inside states as well. Share White, not Hispanic by US county | +0.57 | +0.61 |
| Republican share of the two-party vote, 2016 and Share Black, not HispanicWhere Republican share of the two-party vote, 2016 is higher, Share Black, not Hispanic tends to be lower: a moderate link that holds when only places with similar density, income and education are compared, and inside states as well. Share Black, not Hispanic by US county | -0.46 | -0.55 |
| Republican share of the two-party vote, 2016 and Share Hispanic or Latino, any raceWhere Republican share of the two-party vote, 2016 is higher, Share Hispanic or Latino, any race tends to be lower: a weak link that holds when only places with similar density, income and education are compared, and inside states as well. Share Hispanic or Latino, any race by US county | -0.20 | -0.29 |
| Republican share of the two-party vote, 2016 and Share Asian, not HispanicWhere Republican share of the two-party vote, 2016 is higher, Share Asian, not Hispanic tends to be lower: a weak link that holds when only places with similar density, income and education are compared, and inside states as well. Share Asian, not Hispanic by US county | -0.48 | -0.26 |
| Republican share of the two-party vote, 2016 and Share American Indian or Alaska Native, not HispanicWhere Republican share of the two-party vote, 2016 is higher, Share American Indian or Alaska Native, not Hispanic tends to be lower: a weak link that holds when only places with similar density, income and education are compared. Share American Indian or Alaska Native, not Hispanic by US county | -0.09 | -0.31 |
Highest and lowest
Of 3,113 counties reporting it. These are the two ends of a national ranking. For most measures, that ranking mostly sorts places by income and how urban they are. That is why the place pages compare each place with similar places instead.
Highest
- King County, TX — 96.8
- Roberts County, TX — 96.3
- Garfield County, MT — 95.1
- Banner County, NE — 94.9
- McPherson County, NE — 94.8
Lowest
- District of Columbia, DC — 4.3
- Prince George's County, MD — 8.71
- Oglala Lakota County, SD — 8.76
- Bronx County, NY — 9.66
- San Francisco County, CA — 9.85
The middle area reports 70.1. The middle half of counties falls between 57.7 and 78.7 (the 25th to 75th percentile).
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