Share aged 65 and over and People per tax return
Where Share aged 65 and over is higher, People per tax return tends to be lower. The link is moderate: -0.47 across 3,121 counties, on a scale from −1 (opposite) to +1 (in step). That figure compares places with the same population density, income and education, so those differences can't explain it. It holds inside states too. Measured separately within each of 40 states, the middle value of the link is -0.23.
Holds after adjusting
Every place, plotted
One dot for each place reporting both measures. Hover over or tap a dot to see its name and values. The thin line is the straight line that best fits the dots. The bold line, shown for counties, is the link after adjusting for density, income and education. A dot far from the lines is a place that does not follow the pattern.
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What each measure is
Share aged 65 and over
The percentage of all residents, children included, who are 65 or older. It is a share of everyone, not just of adults. The typical county is 19.7%, and four in five are between 14% and 26%. The extremes come from one big group living there, not from places that aged differently: Sumter County, Florida reaches 57.8% since The Villages retirement community is there. Chattahoochee County, Georgia is 3.3% since it is mostly Fort Benning, an army base, and Madison County, Idaho is 5.3% since it is a university town.
Census ACS 5-year · ACS table B01001_020…B01001_049 (12 cells), divided by total population
People per tax return
People covered per tax return: household size as the tax system sees it.
IRS Statistics of Income · IRS SOI N2 / N1
Highest and lowest
Where each measure is highest and lowest among the places reporting both (2023), with the other measure beside it. This is shown for every size of place where both are published. Metro-area values are added up from their counties. A measure that cannot be added up across counties, such as a middle value (median), has no metro figure. Counts are shown per 1,000 residents, since raw totals would only list the largest places. Cities and towns and ZIP codes are shown where the Census survey or the CDC publishes them; most other sources stop at the county. They are shown for places of 5,000 residents or more, and only where the survey’s margin of error is small enough for the figure to be usable. The CDC publishes its health estimates for cities in a version adjusted for age, so places with older or younger people can be compared fairly, but not for ZIP codes.
Counties
By share aged 65 and over
| Share aged 65 and over | People per tax return | |
|---|---|---|
| Highest | ||
| Sumter County, FL | 57.8% | 2 |
| Catron County, NM | 44.5% | 2 |
| La Paz County, AZ | 42.2% | 2 |
| Charlotte County, FL | 40.4% | 2 |
| Lancaster County, VA | 40% | 2 |
| Lowest | ||
| Chattahoochee County, GA | 3.32% | 2 |
| Madison County, ID | 5.32% | 2 |
| Aleutians West Census Area, AK | 6.37% | 2 |
| Kusilvak Census Area, AK | 6.42% | 2 |
| Oglala Lakota County, SD | 7.07% | 2 |
By people per tax return
| Share aged 65 and over | People per tax return | |
|---|---|---|
| Highest | ||
| Jefferson County, ID | 11.5% | 2 |
| Gaines County, TX | 9.41% | 2 |
| Buffalo County, SD | 9.33% | 2 |
| Sterling County, TX | 13.2% | 2 |
| Juab County, UT | 12.6% | 2 |
| Lowest | ||
| New York County, NY | 17.8% | 1 |
| Suffolk County, MA | 13% | 1 |
| Pitkin County, CO | 21.6% | 2 |
| San Juan County, CO | 20.7% | 2 |
| District of Columbia, DC | 12.7% | 2 |
States
By share aged 65 and over
| Share aged 65 and over | People per tax return | |
|---|---|---|
| Highest | ||
| Maine | 21.9% | 2 |
| Florida | 21.1% | 2 |
| Vermont | 20.8% | 2 |
| West Virginia | 20.7% | 2 |
| Delaware | 20% | 2 |
| Lowest | ||
| Utah | 11.6% | 2 |
| District of Columbia | 12.7% | 2 |
| Texas | 13.2% | 2 |
| Alaska | 13.3% | 2 |
| Georgia | 14.6% | 2 |
By people per tax return
| Share aged 65 and over | People per tax return | |
|---|---|---|
| Highest | ||
| Utah | 11.6% | 2 |
| Idaho | 16.6% | 2 |
| Oklahoma | 16.1% | 2 |
| Texas | 13.2% | 2 |
| Arkansas | 17.3% | 2 |
| Lowest | ||
| District of Columbia | 12.7% | 2 |
| Rhode Island | 18.3% | 2 |
| Vermont | 20.8% | 2 |
| Massachusetts | 17.5% | 2 |
| Maine | 21.9% | 2 |
Metro areas
By share aged 65 and over
| Share aged 65 and over | People per tax return | |
|---|---|---|
| Highest | ||
| Wildwood-The Villages, FL | 57.8% | 2 |
| Punta Gorda, FL | 40.4% | 2 |
| Port Townsend, WA | 39.6% | 2 |
| Homosassa Springs, FL | 36.3% | 2 |
| Sebring, FL | 35.9% | 2 |
| Lowest | ||
| Rexburg, ID | 7.86% | 2 |
| Provo-Orem-Lehi, UT | 7.87% | 2 |
| Fort Leonard Wood, MO | 9.6% | 2 |
| Andrews, TX | 9.67% | 2 |
| Hinesville, GA | 9.68% | 2 |
By people per tax return
| Share aged 65 and over | People per tax return | |
|---|---|---|
| Highest | ||
| Andrews, TX | 9.67% | 2 |
| Provo-Orem-Lehi, UT | 7.87% | 2 |
| Vernal, UT | 11.7% | 2 |
| Eagle Pass, TX | 11.9% | 2 |
| Blackfoot, ID | 14.8% | 2 |
| Lowest | ||
| Nantucket, MA | 15.5% | 2 |
| Breckenridge, CO | 14.9% | 2 |
| Vineyard Haven, MA | 26% | 2 |
| Barnstable Town, MA | 32.3% | 2 |
| Taos, NM | 29.7% | 2 |
Cities and towns — People per tax return is not published for cities and towns
By share aged 65 and over
| Share aged 65 and over | People per tax return | |
|---|---|---|
| Highest | ||
| Desert Palms CDP, CA | 86.4% | — |
| Sun City West CDP, AZ | 85.8% | — |
| The Villages CDP, FL | 85.2% | — |
| On Top of the World CDP, FL | 83.7% | — |
| Laguna Woods city, CA | 83% | — |
| Lowest | ||
| University of California-Davis CDP, CA | 0% | — |
| Fort Irwin CDP, CA | 0% | — |
| Camp Pendleton South CDP, CA | 0% | — |
| North Fort Lewis CDP, WA | 0% | — |
| Fort Lewis CDP, WA | 0% | — |
ZIP codes — People per tax return is not published for ZIP codes
By share aged 65 and over
| Share aged 65 and over | People per tax return | |
|---|---|---|
| Highest | ||
| ZIP 32162 (The Villages CDP, FL) | 88.1% | — |
| ZIP 85375 (Sun City West CDP, AZ) | 85.2% | — |
| ZIP 92637 (Laguna Woods city, CA) | 83% | — |
| ZIP 85622 (Pima County, AZ) | 82.8% | — |
| ZIP 85351 (Sun City CDP, AZ) | 76.2% | — |
| Lowest | ||
| ZIP 99703 (Fairbanks city, AK) | 0% | — |
| ZIP 98433 (Pierce County, WA) | 0% | — |
| ZIP 93410 (California Polytechnic State University CDP, CA) | 0% | — |
| ZIP 93106 (University of California-Santa Barbara CDP, CA) | 0% | — |
| ZIP 92310 (San Bernardino County, CA) | 0% | — |
Counties furthest from the pattern
Compared with the straight line that best fits all 3,140 counties: the five with far more people per tax return than their share aged 65 and over would suggest, and the five with far less.
| Share aged 65 and over | People per tax return | |
|---|---|---|
| Above the line | ||
| Jefferson County, ID | 11.5% | 2 |
| Sterling County, TX | 13.2% | 2 |
| Juab County, UT | 12.6% | 2 |
| Gaines County, TX | 9.41% | 2 |
| Franklin County, ID | 14.1% | 2 |
| Below the line | ||
| Suffolk County, MA | 13% | 1 |
| New York County, NY | 17.8% | 1 |
| District of Columbia, DC | 12.7% | 2 |
| Denver County, CO | 12.3% | 2 |
| Richmond city, VA | 13.6% | 2 |
Two series, one county
Both measures over time for a county you pick. The two charts are stacked, so they share only the years along the bottom. You can pick from the thirty largest counties reporting both. This panel covers 2010–2024, and a measure published only once shows as a single dot.
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Every version of the link
Each row measures the same link, from −1 to +1, in a different way. If the rows mostly agree, the link does not depend on one choice of method.
| Before adjusting for anything | -0.305 | 3,121 counties reporting both |
| After adjusting for density, income and education | -0.471 | the part of the link that is not just how urban, rich and educated a place is |
| Also adjusting for population size | -0.480 | size taken out as well as density |
| Also comparing only within each state | -0.437 | each county is compared only with others in its own state, so this is no longer a comparison between states |
| Giving bigger counties more weight | -0.527 | the adjusted link for the average resident rather than the average county. With this weighting, the data counts for about 287 equally weighted counties |
| Middle value inside single states | -0.230 | the link worked out inside each of 40 states with at least 20 counties reporting |
| Using ranks, after adjusting | -0.452 | uses each county’s rank, not its value, so a few extreme counties cannot create the link |
How much to believe it
Could it be chance?
The p-value is the chance of seeing a link this strong if there were really none. A value of 0.05 or less means the link is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 3.1e-16 means 0.00000000000000031, and the bigger the number after “e-”, the smaller the value. Treating every county as a separate case gives p = 3.8e-172. But counties in the same state tend to resemble each other, so the better figure allows for that: p = 5.5e-10. The site tested 20,910 pairs, and testing so many turns up some flukes. The q-value allows for that too. For this pair it is 4.1e-171.
Do nearby places look alike?
Moran’s I measures how much nearby places look alike: 0 means no map pattern, and higher means neighbours are more similar. For the part of each county that the adjustment leaves unexplained, it is +0.43 (p = 0.001). That unexplained part still clusters on the map. So some regional factor shared by both measures is not accounted for.
Did they change together?
The figures above compare counties at one moment. This asks a different question: where share aged 65 and over rose most, did people per tax returnmove too? Each county’s change is compared with the average change in its own state. That takes out ups and downs that hit a whole region at once. Each change is the gap between two estimates that both contain some error. That error pulls these links towards zero, so a weak one is weak partly for that reason. The q column shows whether a link could be a fluke, allowing for the many pairs tested: 0.05 or less means it is unlikely to be chance.
| Period | Counties | Change together | Within states | q |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014–2019 the main test: each Census survey figure averages five years, and these two do not overlap; before the pandemic | 3,140 | -0.09 | +0.03 | 0.677 |
| 2019–2023 a repeat check: its two five-year survey figures both include 2019, and it covers the COVID years | 3,140 | -0.09 | -0.04 | 0.081 |
Over the main period, any link between the changes could easily be chance. How change is measured.
Related pairs
- Median age and Share aged 65 and over — +0.93
- Share aged 65 and over and Share never married — -0.56
- Share aged 65 and over and Share widowed — +0.55
- Homeownership rate and Share aged 65 and over — +0.53
- Share aged 65 and over and Returns reporting capital gains — +0.53
- Median age and People per tax return — -0.49
- Per capita income and People per tax return — -0.45
- Republican share of the two-party vote, 2008 and People per tax return — +0.45
Association only. Nothing here shows that either measure changes the other. This describes counties, not the people in them. Two measures going together across places does not mean the same people have both. How the US county data works · Explore Share aged 65 and over and People per tax return