Poverty rate (model-based)
The percentage of people in poverty, as an estimate from a statistical model, not a direct count. The Census Bureau combines survey answers with tax and food-assistance records, to get figures that small counties' survey answers cannot give on their own.
Reported for3,143areas, in 51 states — none in PR
Link to density0.18not mostly about how urban a place is
Nearby places alike0.56Moran’s I: strongly, neighbouring places tend to be similar
Typerate%
How it has moved
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Every state, every year
One row per state and one column per year, sorted by the latest value. It shows states, not counties: nobody can scan 3,222 rows, and the pattern only shows when it all fits on one screen.
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Where it comes from
Census SAIPE · Census SAIPE SAEPOVRTALL_PT
When areas are combined, each gets weight by the number of people whose poverty status the Census can check.
Combining areas: an average weighted by population for whom poverty status is determined.
What it goes with
The strongest links that have a page of their own. Unadjusted is the link before adjusting for anything, from −1 (opposite) to +1 (in step). Adjusted compares places with the same population density, income and education levels, so those differences can’t explain the link. This list leaves out the 96 pairs built from the same numbers or the same model as this measure, since they are bound to match.
| Measure | Unadjusted | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|
| Poverty rate (model-based) and Returns claiming the earned income creditWhere Poverty rate (model-based) is higher, Returns claiming the earned income credit tends to be higher: a strong link that holds when only places with similar density, income and education are compared, and inside states as well. Returns claiming the earned income credit by US county | +0.84 | +0.71 |
| Poverty rate (model-based) and Homicide rate, annualWhere Poverty rate (model-based) is higher, Homicide rate, annual tends to be higher: a moderate link that holds when only places with similar density, income and education are compared. Homicide rate, annual by US county | +0.73 | +0.56 |
| Poverty rate (model-based) and Children in single-parent householdsWhere Poverty rate (model-based) is higher, Children in single-parent households tends to be higher: a moderate link that holds when only places with similar density, income and education are compared, and inside states as well. Children in single-parent households by US county | +0.70 | +0.55 |
| Poverty rate (model-based) and Homicide rateWhere Poverty rate (model-based) is higher, Homicide rate tends to be higher: a moderate link that holds when only places with similar density, income and education are compared, and inside states as well. Homicide rate by US county | +0.70 | +0.55 |
| Poverty rate (model-based) and Average test scoreWhere Poverty rate (model-based) is higher, Average test score tends to be lower: a moderate link that holds when only places with similar density, income and education are compared, and inside states as well. Average test score by US county | -0.71 | -0.54 |
| Poverty rate (model-based) and Social connection scoreWhere Poverty rate (model-based) is higher, Social connection score tends to be lower: a moderate link that holds when only places with similar density, income and education are compared, and inside states as well. Social connection score by US county | -0.57 | -0.54 |
| Poverty rate (model-based) and Premature mortalityWhere Poverty rate (model-based) is higher, Premature mortality tends to be higher: a moderate link that holds when only places with similar density, income and education are compared, and inside states as well. Premature mortality by US county | +0.76 | +0.52 |
| Poverty rate (model-based) and Years of potential life lostWhere Poverty rate (model-based) is higher, Years of potential life lost tends to be higher: a moderate link that holds when only places with similar density, income and education are compared, and inside states as well. Years of potential life lost by US county | +0.73 | +0.49 |
| Poverty rate (model-based) and Economic connectednessWhere Poverty rate (model-based) is higher, Economic connectedness tends to be lower: a moderate link that holds when only places with similar density, income and education are compared, and inside states as well. Economic connectedness by US county | -0.71 | -0.47 |
| Poverty rate (model-based) and Economy scoreWhere Poverty rate (model-based) is higher, Economy score tends to be lower: a moderate link that holds when only places with similar density, income and education are compared, and inside states as well. Economy score by US county | -0.78 | -0.44 |
Population makeup
How this measure varies with the racial and ethnic makeup of counties. Every group is shown, whatever its rank. These are links across counties: they describe places, not people. They say nothing about any person’s risk or behaviour based on their race. Counties with a larger share of one group also differ in much else, such as income, segregation, region and history. The adjusted figure only accounts for density, income and education.
| Share of residents | Unadjusted | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|
| Poverty rate (model-based) and Share White, not HispanicNot an independent finding: one is modelled from the other. It is an estimate from a statistical model that uses the other as an input, so part of the match is built in. Share White, not Hispanic by US county | -0.43 | -0.57 |
| Poverty rate (model-based) and Share Black, not HispanicNot an independent finding: one is modelled from the other. It is an estimate from a statistical model that uses the other as an input, so part of the match is built in. Share Black, not Hispanic by US county | +0.54 | +0.47 |
| Poverty rate (model-based) and Share Hispanic or Latino, any raceNot an independent finding: one is modelled from the other. It is an estimate from a statistical model that uses the other as an input, so part of the match is built in. Share Hispanic or Latino, any race by US county | +0.11 | +0.24 |
| Poverty rate (model-based) and Share Asian, not HispanicNot an independent finding: one is modelled from the other. It is an estimate from a statistical model that uses the other as an input, so part of the match is built in. Share Asian, not Hispanic by US county | -0.20 | +0.29 |
| Poverty rate (model-based) and Share American Indian or Alaska Native, not HispanicNot an independent finding: one is modelled from the other. It is an estimate from a statistical model that uses the other as an input, so part of the match is built in. Share American Indian or Alaska Native, not Hispanic by US county | +0.37 | +0.44 |
Highest and lowest
Of 3,143 counties reporting it. These are the two ends of a national ranking. For most measures, that ranking mostly sorts places by income and how urban they are. That is why the place pages compare each place with similar places instead.
Highest
- Issaquena County, MS — 49.6%
- Martin County, KY — 48.1%
- East Carroll Parish, LA — 46.5%
- Ziebach County, SD — 46.2%
- Lee County, AR — 38.7%
Lowest
- Lincoln County, SD — 3.3%
- Douglas County, CO — 3.7%
- Los Alamos County, NM — 3.8%
- Loudoun County, VA — 4.1%
- Morgan County, UT — 4.3%
The middle area reports 13.6%. The middle half of counties falls between 10.6% and 17.4% (the 25th to 75th percentile).
All measures · Explore its pairs · How the US county data works