placestats

Pupil-teacher ratio vs. Vulnerable employment

Fades after adjusting for income

Across 164 countries, Pupil-teacher ratio and Vulnerable employment rise and fall together at r = +0.78 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). Comparing only countries with similar income (GDP per person) shrinks it to +0.27, which could easily be chance (q = 0.14, allowing for the many pairs tested, and allowing for countries in the same region being alike). So the first figure mostly shows richer countries differing from poorer ones, not a link between these two things. Caution: direction is not consistent across regions.

Comparing countries across the middle half of pupil-teacher ratio, 13.8 to 30.1 pupils per teacher, vulnerable employment is worse by 25.6% of employment at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 7.65% of employment.

Link before adjusting (r)+0.777p = 2.5e-34 · 164 countries
After adjusting for national income+0.272p = 0.000 · likely range [+0.12, +0.41]
p, allowing for regions0.032standard error 0.098 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.142across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Pupil-teacher ratio · pupils per teacherlink with income -0.83 · proxy
Vulnerable employment · % of employmentlink with income -0.87 · proxy

Both of these rise and fall closely with national income, so a strong link between them before adjusting was close to certain. Read the adjusted figure, not the first one.

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Pupil-teacher ratio · pupils per teacher →Vulnerable employment · % of employment →8.383.40.456%90.2%Afghanistan: 48.8 pupils per teacher, 81.8% of employmentAngola: 50 pupils per teacher, 66.3% of employmentAlbania: 17.6 pupils per teacher, 46% of employmentUnited Arab Emirates: 24.5 pupils per teacher, 1.5% of employmentArmenia: 15.4 pupils per teacher, 32.8% of employmentAustria: 10 pupils per teacher, 7.85% of employmentAzerbaijan: 15.4 pupils per teacher, 53.8% of employmentBurundi: 42.5 pupils per teacher, 83.7% of employmentBelgium: 11.3 pupils per teacher, 11% of employmentBenin: 39.2 pupils per teacher, 78.5% of employmentBurkina Faso: 39.7 pupils per teacher, 80.6% of employmentBangladesh: 30.1 pupils per teacher, 57.3% of employmentBulgaria: 15.2 pupils per teacher, 6.92% of employmentBahrain: 11.9 pupils per teacher, 0.749% of employmentBahamas, The: 19.4 pupils per teacher, 15.9% of employmentBosnia and Herzegovina: 16.9 pupils per teacher, 18.1% of employmentBelarus: 19.2 pupils per teacher, 6.33% of employmentBelize: 19.8 pupils per teacher, 29.8% of employmentBolivia: 17.8 pupils per teacher, 62.7% of employmentBrazil: 20.2 pupils per teacher, 26.1% of employmentBarbados: 14 pupils per teacher, 18.8% of employmentBrunei Darussalam: 9.9 pupils per teacher, 4.48% of employmentBhutan: 34.7 pupils per teacher, 69% of employmentBotswana: 23.7 pupils per teacher, 25.6% of employmentCentral African Republic: 83.4 pupils per teacher, 79.4% of employmentSwitzerland: 9.93 pupils per teacher, 9.6% of employmentChile: 17.8 pupils per teacher, 20.9% of employmentChina: 16.4 pupils per teacher, 33.4% of employmentCote d'Ivoire: 41.8 pupils per teacher, 69.4% of employmentCameroon: 44.8 pupils per teacher, 67.6% of employmentCongo, Dem. Rep.: 33.2 pupils per teacher, 81.5% of employmentCongo, Rep.: 44.4 pupils per teacher, 75.9% of employmentColombia: 23.3 pupils per teacher, 43% of employmentComoros: 28.1 pupils per teacher, 56.8% of employmentCabo Verde: 21.1 pupils per teacher, 34.3% of employmentCosta Rica: 12.2 pupils per teacher, 23.4% of employmentCyprus: 12 pupils per teacher, 8.38% of employmentCzechia: 18.9 pupils per teacher, 13.5% of employmentGermany: 12.3 pupils per teacher, 4.34% of employmentDjibouti: 29.4 pupils per teacher, 30.3% of employmentDenmark: 10.7 pupils per teacher, 5.4% of employmentDominican Republic: 18.9 pupils per teacher, 38% of employmentAlgeria: 24.3 pupils per teacher, 25.6% of employmentEcuador: 24.3 pupils per teacher, 50.1% of employmentEgypt, Arab Rep.: 23.7 pupils per teacher, 23.9% of employmentSpain: 13.1 pupils per teacher, 10.1% of employmentEstonia: 11.3 pupils per teacher, 7.09% of employmentEthiopia: 55.1 pupils per teacher, 84.1% of employmentFinland: 13.7 pupils per teacher, 9.46% of employmentFiji: 28 pupils per teacher, 32.8% of employmentFrance: 18.2 pupils per teacher, 8.5% of employmentGabon: 24.5 pupils per teacher, 29.8% of employmentUnited Kingdom: 15.1 pupils per teacher, 11.5% of employmentGeorgia: 8.98 pupils per teacher, 42.4% of employmentGhana: 27 pupils per teacher, 60% of employmentGuinea: 47.1 pupils per teacher, 79.2% of employmentGambia, The: 36.1 pupils per teacher, 63.5% of employmentGuinea-Bissau: 51.9 pupils per teacher, 74.9% of employmentEquatorial Guinea: 23.2 pupils per teacher, 23.1% of employmentGreece: 9.38 pupils per teacher, 23.1% of employmentGuatemala: 20.3 pupils per teacher, 36.2% of employmentGuyana: 23.2 pupils per teacher, 25.3% of employmentHong Kong SAR, China: 13.3 pupils per teacher, 5.76% of employmentHonduras: 25.6 pupils per teacher, 33.9% of employmentCroatia: 13.5 pupils per teacher, 6.35% of employmentHungary: 10.8 pupils per teacher, 7.83% of employmentIndonesia: 17 pupils per teacher, 50% of employmentIndia: 32.7 pupils per teacher, 71.6% of employmentIreland: 16.1 pupils per teacher, 9.64% of employmentIran, Islamic Rep.: 28.5 pupils per teacher, 39.5% of employmentIceland: 10.1 pupils per teacher, 8.4% of employmentIsrael: 12.1 pupils per teacher, 7.7% of employmentItaly: 11.5 pupils per teacher, 14.3% of employmentJamaica: 24.8 pupils per teacher, 31.6% of employmentJordan: 18.5 pupils per teacher, 7.86% of employmentJapan: 15.7 pupils per teacher, 7.49% of employmentKazakhstan: 17.2 pupils per teacher, 24.8% of employmentKenya: 30.7 pupils per teacher, 63.8% of employmentKyrgyz Republic: 25 pupils per teacher, 29% of employmentCambodia: 41.7 pupils per teacher, 52.3% of employmentKorea, Rep.: 16.3 pupils per teacher, 17.7% of employmentKuwait: 8.88 pupils per teacher, 2.4% of employmentLao PDR: 22.3 pupils per teacher, 76.4% of employmentLebanon: 12.5 pupils per teacher, 19.4% of employmentLiberia: 22.3 pupils per teacher, 76.9% of employmentSt. Lucia: 14.7 pupils per teacher, 22% of employmentSri Lanka: 21.7 pupils per teacher, 39.2% of employmentLesotho: 32.9 pupils per teacher, 32.6% of employmentLithuania: 13.5 pupils per teacher, 10.4% of employmentLuxembourg: 8.3 pupils per teacher, 6.95% of employmentLatvia: 11.5 pupils per teacher, 8.62% of employmentMacao SAR, China: 13.5 pupils per teacher, 3.33% of employmentMorocco: 26.8 pupils per teacher, 35.5% of employmentMoldova: 17.9 pupils per teacher, 58.6% of employmentMadagascar: 39.8 pupils per teacher, 84.4% of employmentMaldives: 10.2 pupils per teacher, 16.9% of employmentMexico: 26.6 pupils per teacher, 25.3% of employmentNorth Macedonia: 14.9 pupils per teacher, 12.3% of employmentMali: 37.8 pupils per teacher, 75.8% of employmentMalta: 12.9 pupils per teacher, 10.1% of employmentMyanmar: 24.4 pupils per teacher, 62.9% of employmentMongolia: 30.4 pupils per teacher, 38.4% of employmentMozambique: 55.3 pupils per teacher, 83.7% of employmentMauritania: 34.3 pupils per teacher, 53.3% of employmentMauritius: 16.2 pupils per teacher, 14.9% of employmentMalawi: 58.7 pupils per teacher, 59.9% of employmentMalaysia: 11.7 pupils per teacher, 21.9% of employmentNamibia: 25.1 pupils per teacher, 29.9% of employmentNiger: 36.3 pupils per teacher, 83.7% of employmentNigeria: 37.6 pupils per teacher, 66.5% of employmentNicaragua: 30.2 pupils per teacher, 38.9% of employmentNetherlands: 11.8 pupils per teacher, 13.4% of employmentNorway: 8.59 pupils per teacher, 4.17% of employmentNepal: 19.7 pupils per teacher, 77% of employmentNew Zealand: 14.9 pupils per teacher, 12.6% of employmentOman: 9.67 pupils per teacher, 3.81% of employmentPakistan: 44.1 pupils per teacher, 55.5% of employmentPanama: 22 pupils per teacher, 37.9% of employmentPeru: 17.4 pupils per teacher, 47.5% of employmentPhilippines: 29.1 pupils per teacher, 33.6% of employmentPapua New Guinea: 35.5 pupils per teacher, 71.2% of employmentPoland: 10.2 pupils per teacher, 15% of employmentPuerto Rico (US): 13.5 pupils per teacher, 10.3% of employmentPortugal: 12.4 pupils per teacher, 9.66% of employmentParaguay: 24.2 pupils per teacher, 36.1% of employmentWest Bank and Gaza: 24.5 pupils per teacher, 18.4% of employmentQatar: 12.2 pupils per teacher, 0.456% of employmentRomania: 19.3 pupils per teacher, 13% of employmentRussian Federation: 21.3 pupils per teacher, 4.93% of employmentRwanda: 59.5 pupils per teacher, 39.4% of employmentSaudi Arabia: 13.8 pupils per teacher, 1.66% of employmentSenegal: 36.3 pupils per teacher, 63% of employmentSingapore: 14.7 pupils per teacher, 9.3% of employmentSolomon Islands: 25.4 pupils per teacher, 68.7% of employmentSierra Leone: 27.5 pupils per teacher, 86% of employmentEl Salvador: 26.9 pupils per teacher, 30.8% of employmentSerbia: 14.3 pupils per teacher, 23.9% of employmentSao Tome and Principe: 31.2 pupils per teacher, 35% of employmentSuriname: 13.4 pupils per teacher, 18.4% of employmentSlovak Republic: 15.5 pupils per teacher, 11.8% of employmentSlovenia: 13.8 pupils per teacher, 10.6% of employmentSweden: 12.2 pupils per teacher, 6.87% of employmentEswatini: 26.6 pupils per teacher, 28.4% of employmentChad: 56.9 pupils per teacher, 90.2% of employmentTogo: 40.1 pupils per teacher, 75% of employmentThailand: 16.6 pupils per teacher, 48% of employmentTajikistan: 22.3 pupils per teacher, 28% of employmentTimor-Leste: 26.9 pupils per teacher, 58.6% of employmentTonga: 21.6 pupils per teacher, 33.7% of employmentTunisia: 16.9 pupils per teacher, 17.9% of employmentTurkiye: 17 pupils per teacher, 23.9% of employmentTanzania: 50.6 pupils per teacher, 83.7% of employmentUganda: 42.7 pupils per teacher, 74.4% of employmentUkraine: 13 pupils per teacher, 19% of employmentUruguay: 11 pupils per teacher, 24.4% of employmentUnited States: 14.2 pupils per teacher, 3.81% of employmentUzbekistan: 21.5 pupils per teacher, 33.3% of employmentSt. Vincent and the Grenadines: 14.4 pupils per teacher, 22% of employmentViet Nam: 20.3 pupils per teacher, 51.4% of employmentVanuatu: 26.6 pupils per teacher, 58% of employmentSamoa: 30.2 pupils per teacher, 41.6% of employmentSouth Africa: 30.3 pupils per teacher, 11.7% of employmentZambia: 42.1 pupils per teacher, 70.2% of employmentZimbabwe: 36.4 pupils per teacher, 68.2% of employmentCAFETHKWTLAOLBRMWINORNPLOMNRWATCD

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted+0.7772.5e-34164
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted+0.8051.4e-38164
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income+0.2720.000164
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income+0.2640.001164

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 164 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.504 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from +0.253 (without PSE) to +0.319 (without RWA). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: RWA (+0.046).

Fragile: this link may not hold up.
  • direction is not consistent across regions

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific24-0.05
Europe & Central Asia46-0.12
Latin America & Caribbean25+0.24
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan19+0.78
Sub-Saharan Africa43+0.18

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third55+0.25
Middle third54+0.23
Richest third55+0.31

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians99+0.20
Muslims43+0.52

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France23+0.21
Never a European colony20+0.20
Spain18-0.19
United Kingdom48+0.40

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = +0.380 after dropping 6 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 29years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

Within countries over time, there is no link that is clearly more than chance (r = +0.094, comparing each country only with itself over the years, and each year only with the same year elsewhere). Whatever the cross-country picture shows, countries whose pupil-teacher ratio moved did not tend to see their vulnerable employment move with it.

Across countries (adjusted)+0.272for comparison
Within countries+0.290each country vs itself
…and vs the same year elsewhere+0.094q = 0.150 · 173 countries
Year-on-year changes+0.019q = 0.390
Read with care.
  • Almost all of this indicator's variation is between countries, not within them, so the within-country estimate rests on a small part of the data.

3,366 country-years (one country in one year), 173 countries, 1991–2019, about 20 years each on average. Share of the variation that happens within countries over time: 10% for Pupil-teacher ratio, 1% for Vulnerable employment. The margins of error allow for each country appearing many times, and for each year’s value being close to the year before.

Year-to-year changes are a cautious test, not a final answer. Looking only at changes from one year to the next removes each country’s own trends. But it also makes measurement mistakes louder, which pulls the results toward zero. A near-zero result here is weak evidence of no link, not proof.

With one measure years behind the other

0.20−0.2-100+10years Vulnerable employment trails Pupil-teacher ratio →lag -10: r = 0.038 (n = 2,219)lag -9: r = 0.039 (n = 2,343)lag -8: r = 0.070 (n = 2,488)lag -7: r = 0.074 (n = 2,604)lag -6: r = 0.080 (n = 2,693)lag -5: r = 0.090 (n = 2,791)lag -4: r = 0.094 (n = 2,903)lag -3: r = 0.112 (n = 3,022)lag -2: r = 0.117 (n = 3,135)lag -1: r = 0.104 (n = 3,251)lag +0: r = 0.094 (n = 3,366)lag +1: r = 0.083 (n = 3,468)lag +2: r = 0.071 (n = 3,468)lag +3: r = 0.059 (n = 3,468)lag +4: r = 0.045 (n = 3,467)lag +5: r = 0.035 (n = 3,465)lag +6: r = 0.028 (n = 3,463)lag +7: r = 0.018 (n = 3,457)lag +8: r = 0.010 (n = 3,377)lag +9: r = -0.006 (n = 3,237)lag +10: r = -0.027 (n = 3,103)

Same year (lag 0): +0.094. A peak away from zero does not show which comes first. These series change slowly — this year’s value is close to last year’s. That makes the curve smooth and nearly symmetric, whatever produced the data. Even a sharp peak at one lag (a gap of some years) would not prove that one measure changes the other.

The data


pupils per teacher
% of employment		Years
Central African Republic CAF83.479.4%2016, 2025
Rwanda RWA59.539.4%2018, 2025
Malawi MWI58.759.9%2018, 2025
Chad TCD56.990.2%2016, 2025
Mozambique MOZ55.383.7%2018, 2025
Ethiopia ETH55.184.1%2011, 2025
Guinea-Bissau GNB51.974.9%2010, 2025
Tanzania TZA50.683.7%2018, 2025
Angola AGO5066.3%2015, 2025
Afghanistan AFG48.881.8%2018, 2025
Guinea GIN47.179.2%2016, 2025
Cameroon CMR44.867.6%2018, 2025
Congo, Rep. COG44.475.9%2012, 2025
Pakistan PAK44.155.5%2018, 2025
Uganda UGA42.774.4%2017, 2025

World Bank, World Development Indicators
World Bank, World Development Indicators

Sources

Pupil-teacher ratio

Pupil-teacher ratio, primary

UNESCO Institute for Statistics · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

The World Bank's copy stops at 2019.

Vulnerable employment

Vulnerable employment, total (% of total employment)

International Labour Organization · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

Self-employed workers and unpaid family workers, who have no employer and usually no protection. The ILO estimates it with a model for every country and year, which is why it is complete where surveys are not.

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2010–2025. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Pupil-teacher ratio and Vulnerable employment

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Pupil-teacher ratio changes Vulnerable employment, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Pupil-teacher ratio or Vulnerable employment