placestats

Population growth vs. Pupil-teacher ratio

Fades after adjusting for income

Across 180 countries, Population growth and Pupil-teacher ratio rise and fall together at r = +0.56 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). Comparing only countries with similar income (GDP per person) shrinks it to +0.35, which could easily be chance (q = 0.19, allowing for the many pairs tested, and allowing for countries in the same region being alike). So the first figure mostly shows richer countries differing from poorer ones, not a link between these two things. Caution: direction is not consistent across regions.

Comparing countries across the middle half of population growth, 0.257% to 1.89% per year, pupil-teacher ratio is worse by 9.91 pupils per teacher at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 4.29 pupils per teacher.

Link before adjusting (r)+0.563p = 1.9e-16 · 180 countries
After adjusting for national income+0.354p = 1.1e-6 · likely range [+0.22, +0.48]
p, allowing for regions0.056standard error 0.150 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.193across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Population growth · % per yearlink with income -0.50 · moderate
Pupil-teacher ratio · pupils per teacherlink with income -0.83 · proxy

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Population growth · % per year →Pupil-teacher ratio · pupils per teacher →-1.75%4.68%6.9383.4Aruba: 0.729% per year, 14.8 pupils per teacherAfghanistan: 2.77% per year, 48.8 pupils per teacherAngola: 3% per year, 50 pupils per teacherAlbania: -1.17% per year, 17.6 pupils per teacherAndorra: 1.17% per year, 10.5 pupils per teacherUnited Arab Emirates: 4.68% per year, 24.5 pupils per teacherArmenia: 1.74% per year, 15.4 pupils per teacherAntigua and Barbuda: 0.465% per year, 12.4 pupils per teacherAustria: 0.328% per year, 10 pupils per teacherAzerbaijan: 0.432% per year, 15.4 pupils per teacherBurundi: 2.41% per year, 42.5 pupils per teacherBelgium: 0.699% per year, 11.3 pupils per teacherBenin: 2.4% per year, 39.2 pupils per teacherBurkina Faso: 2.21% per year, 39.7 pupils per teacherBangladesh: 1.22% per year, 30.1 pupils per teacherBulgaria: -0.126% per year, 15.2 pupils per teacherBahrain: 0.734% per year, 11.9 pupils per teacherBahamas, The: 0.435% per year, 19.4 pupils per teacherBosnia and Herzegovina: -0.766% per year, 16.9 pupils per teacherBelarus: -0.512% per year, 19.2 pupils per teacherBelize: 1.39% per year, 19.8 pupils per teacherBermuda: -0.125% per year, 10.4 pupils per teacherBolivia: 1.35% per year, 17.8 pupils per teacherBrazil: 0.383% per year, 20.2 pupils per teacherBarbados: 0.0552% per year, 14 pupils per teacherBrunei Darussalam: 0.777% per year, 9.9 pupils per teacherBhutan: 0.65% per year, 34.7 pupils per teacherBotswana: 1.61% per year, 23.7 pupils per teacherCentral African Republic: 3.37% per year, 83.4 pupils per teacherSwitzerland: 0.96% per year, 9.93 pupils per teacherChile: 0.48% per year, 17.8 pupils per teacherChina: -0.17% per year, 16.4 pupils per teacherCote d'Ivoire: 2.4% per year, 41.8 pupils per teacherCameroon: 2.56% per year, 44.8 pupils per teacherCongo, Dem. Rep.: 3.2% per year, 33.2 pupils per teacherCongo, Rep.: 2.36% per year, 44.4 pupils per teacherColombia: 1.01% per year, 23.3 pupils per teacherComoros: 1.85% per year, 28.1 pupils per teacherCabo Verde: 0.466% per year, 21.1 pupils per teacherCosta Rica: 0.448% per year, 12.2 pupils per teacherCayman Islands: 1.85% per year, 15.7 pupils per teacherCyprus: 0.914% per year, 12 pupils per teacherCzechia: -0.167% per year, 18.9 pupils per teacherGermany: -0.0304% per year, 12.3 pupils per teacherDjibouti: 1.31% per year, 29.4 pupils per teacherDominica: -0.506% per year, 13.1 pupils per teacherDenmark: 0.537% per year, 10.7 pupils per teacherDominican Republic: 0.81% per year, 18.9 pupils per teacherAlgeria: 1.32% per year, 24.3 pupils per teacherEcuador: 0.848% per year, 24.3 pupils per teacherEgypt, Arab Rep.: 1.56% per year, 23.7 pupils per teacherSpain: 1.03% per year, 13.1 pupils per teacherEstonia: -0.428% per year, 11.3 pupils per teacherEthiopia: 2.55% per year, 55.1 pupils per teacherFinland: 0.471% per year, 13.7 pupils per teacherFiji: 0.469% per year, 28 pupils per teacherFrance: 0.246% per year, 18.2 pupils per teacherMicronesia, Fed. Sts.: 0.461% per year, 19.7 pupils per teacherGabon: 2.11% per year, 24.5 pupils per teacherUnited Kingdom: 0.297% per year, 15.1 pupils per teacherGeorgia: 3.18% per year, 8.98 pupils per teacherGhana: 1.83% per year, 27 pupils per teacherGuinea: 2.31% per year, 47.1 pupils per teacherGambia, The: 2.23% per year, 36.1 pupils per teacherGuinea-Bissau: 2.16% per year, 51.9 pupils per teacherEquatorial Guinea: 2.4% per year, 23.2 pupils per teacherGreece: 0.0848% per year, 9.38 pupils per teacherGrenada: 0.0819% per year, 16.4 pupils per teacherGuatemala: 1.52% per year, 20.3 pupils per teacherGuyana: 0.588% per year, 23.2 pupils per teacherHong Kong SAR, China: -0.335% per year, 13.3 pupils per teacherHonduras: 1.65% per year, 25.6 pupils per teacherCroatia: 0.258% per year, 13.5 pupils per teacherHungary: -0.501% per year, 10.8 pupils per teacherIndonesia: 0.785% per year, 17 pupils per teacherIndia: 0.887% per year, 32.7 pupils per teacherIreland: 1.63% per year, 16.1 pupils per teacherIran, Islamic Rep.: 0.924% per year, 28.5 pupils per teacherIceland: 1.51% per year, 10.1 pupils per teacherIsrael: 1.2% per year, 12.1 pupils per teacherItaly: -0.0629% per year, 11.5 pupils per teacherJamaica: -0.0739% per year, 24.8 pupils per teacherJordan: -0.279% per year, 18.5 pupils per teacherJapan: -0.492% per year, 15.7 pupils per teacherKazakhstan: 1.21% per year, 17.2 pupils per teacherKenya: 1.93% per year, 30.7 pupils per teacherKyrgyz Republic: 1.66% per year, 25 pupils per teacherCambodia: 1.18% per year, 41.7 pupils per teacherKiribati: 1.45% per year, 25.5 pupils per teacherSt. Kitts and Nevis: 0.169% per year, 13.9 pupils per teacherKorea, Rep.: -0.129% per year, 16.3 pupils per teacherKuwait: -0.655% per year, 8.88 pupils per teacherLao PDR: 1.32% per year, 22.3 pupils per teacherLebanon: 0.746% per year, 12.5 pupils per teacherLiberia: 2.09% per year, 22.3 pupils per teacherSt. Lucia: 0.225% per year, 14.7 pupils per teacherSri Lanka: -0.733% per year, 21.7 pupils per teacherLesotho: 1.1% per year, 32.9 pupils per teacherLithuania: 0.0172% per year, 13.5 pupils per teacherLuxembourg: 1.46% per year, 8.3 pupils per teacherLatvia: -0.988% per year, 11.5 pupils per teacherMacao SAR, China: -0.16% per year, 13.5 pupils per teacherMorocco: 0.914% per year, 26.8 pupils per teacherMoldova: -1.75% per year, 17.9 pupils per teacherMadagascar: 2.4% per year, 39.8 pupils per teacherMaldives: 0.355% per year, 10.2 pupils per teacherMexico: 0.826% per year, 26.6 pupils per teacherNorth Macedonia: -0.189% per year, 14.9 pupils per teacherMali: 2.9% per year, 37.8 pupils per teacherMalta: 1.89% per year, 12.9 pupils per teacherMyanmar: 0.641% per year, 24.4 pupils per teacherMongolia: 1.25% per year, 30.4 pupils per teacherMozambique: 2.85% per year, 55.3 pupils per teacherMauritania: 2.78% per year, 34.3 pupils per teacherMauritius: -0.164% per year, 16.2 pupils per teacherMalawi: 2.56% per year, 58.7 pupils per teacherMalaysia: 1.17% per year, 11.7 pupils per teacherNamibia: 2.05% per year, 25.1 pupils per teacherNiger: 3.22% per year, 36.3 pupils per teacherNigeria: 2.06% per year, 37.6 pupils per teacherNicaragua: 1.31% per year, 30.2 pupils per teacherNetherlands: 0.522% per year, 11.8 pupils per teacherNorway: 0.69% per year, 8.59 pupils per teacherNepal: -0.111% per year, 19.7 pupils per teacherNaoero: 0.651% per year, 40.2 pupils per teacherNew Zealand: 0.654% per year, 14.9 pupils per teacherOman: 3.96% per year, 9.67 pupils per teacherPakistan: 1.56% per year, 44.1 pupils per teacherPanama: 1.22% per year, 22 pupils per teacherPeru: 1.04% per year, 17.4 pupils per teacherPhilippines: 0.811% per year, 29.1 pupils per teacherPapua New Guinea: 1.75% per year, 35.5 pupils per teacherPoland: -0.338% per year, 10.2 pupils per teacherPuerto Rico (US): -0.554% per year, 13.5 pupils per teacherPortugal: 1.03% per year, 12.4 pupils per teacherParaguay: 1.2% per year, 24.2 pupils per teacherWest Bank and Gaza: 2.33% per year, 24.5 pupils per teacherQatar: 3.92% per year, 12.2 pupils per teacherRomania: -0.166% per year, 19.3 pupils per teacherRussian Federation: -0.109% per year, 21.3 pupils per teacherRwanda: 2.17% per year, 59.5 pupils per teacherSaudi Arabia: 4.63% per year, 13.8 pupils per teacherSenegal: 2.3% per year, 36.3 pupils per teacherSingapore: 1.22% per year, 14.7 pupils per teacherSolomon Islands: 2.35% per year, 25.4 pupils per teacherSierra Leone: 2.04% per year, 27.5 pupils per teacherEl Salvador: 0.43% per year, 26.9 pupils per teacherSan Marino: 0.388% per year, 6.93 pupils per teacherSerbia: -0.568% per year, 14.3 pupils per teacherSao Tome and Principe: 1.98% per year, 31.2 pupils per teacherSuriname: 0.851% per year, 13.4 pupils per teacherSlovak Republic: -0.152% per year, 15.5 pupils per teacherSlovenia: 0.168% per year, 13.8 pupils per teacherSweden: 0.254% per year, 12.2 pupils per teacherEswatini: 1.07% per year, 26.6 pupils per teacherSint Maarten (Dutch part): 1.31% per year, 11.3 pupils per teacherSeychelles: 1.13% per year, 14.5 pupils per teacherTurks and Caicos Islands: 0.685% per year, 17.7 pupils per teacherChad: 3.41% per year, 56.9 pupils per teacherTogo: 2.18% per year, 40.1 pupils per teacherThailand: -0.0672% per year, 16.6 pupils per teacherTajikistan: 1.83% per year, 22.3 pupils per teacherTimor-Leste: 1.27% per year, 26.9 pupils per teacherTonga: -0.417% per year, 21.6 pupils per teacherTunisia: 0.58% per year, 16.9 pupils per teacherTurkiye: 0.42% per year, 17 pupils per teacherTuvalu: -1.61% per year, 15.6 pupils per teacherTanzania: 2.86% per year, 50.6 pupils per teacherUganda: 2.7% per year, 42.7 pupils per teacherUkraine: 2.92% per year, 13 pupils per teacherUruguay: -0.0561% per year, 11 pupils per teacherUnited States: 0.522% per year, 14.2 pupils per teacherUzbekistan: 1.88% per year, 21.5 pupils per teacherSt. Vincent and the Grenadines: -0.69% per year, 14.4 pupils per teacherViet Nam: 0.603% per year, 20.3 pupils per teacherVanuatu: 2.23% per year, 26.6 pupils per teacherSamoa: 0.589% per year, 30.2 pupils per teacherSouth Africa: 1.15% per year, 30.3 pupils per teacherZambia: 2.77% per year, 42.1 pupils per teacherZimbabwe: 1.88% per year, 36.4 pupils per teacherCAFLVAMDAMWIOMNQATRWASAUTCDTUV

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted+0.5631.9e-16180
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted+0.5521.0e-15180
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income+0.3541.1e-6180
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income+0.2640.000180

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 180 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.209 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from +0.330 (without TUV) to +0.381 (without OMN). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: OMN (+0.027).

Fragile: this link may not hold up.
  • direction is not consistent across regions

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific28+0.29
Europe & Central Asia48-0.18
Latin America & Caribbean33+0.38
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan19+0.44
Sub-Saharan Africa44+0.44

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third60+0.54
Middle third60+0.05
Richest third60+0.16

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians104+0.33
Muslims43+0.42

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France23+0.46
Never a European colony20+0.03
Spain19+0.30
United Kingdom56+0.52

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = +0.322 after dropping 9 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 30years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

Within countries over time, there is no link that is clearly more than chance (r = -0.006, comparing each country only with itself over the years, and each year only with the same year elsewhere). Whatever the cross-country picture shows, countries whose population growth moved did not tend to see their pupil-teacher ratio move with it.

Across countries (adjusted)+0.354for comparison
Within countries+0.033each country vs itself
…and vs the same year elsewhere-0.006q = 0.899 · 191 countries
Year-on-year changes-0.020q = 0.388
Read with care.
  • Almost all of the second indicator's variation is between countries, so the within-country estimate rests on a small part of the data.

3,746 country-years (one country in one year), 191 countries, 1990–2019, about 20 years each on average. Share of the variation that happens within countries over time: 45% for Population growth, 10% for Pupil-teacher ratio. The margins of error allow for each country appearing many times, and for each year’s value being close to the year before.

Year-to-year changes are a cautious test, not a final answer. Looking only at changes from one year to the next removes each country’s own trends. But it also makes measurement mistakes louder, which pulls the results toward zero. A near-zero result here is weak evidence of no link, not proof.

With one measure years behind the other

0.10−0.1-100+10years Pupil-teacher ratio trails Population growth →lag -10: r = 0.013 (n = 3,357)lag -9: r = 0.011 (n = 3,503)lag -8: r = 0.002 (n = 3,653)lag -7: r = -0.027 (n = 3,742)lag -6: r = -0.051 (n = 3,746)lag -5: r = -0.031 (n = 3,746)lag -4: r = -0.017 (n = 3,746)lag -3: r = -0.023 (n = 3,747)lag -2: r = -0.012 (n = 3,747)lag -1: r = -0.012 (n = 3,746)lag +0: r = -0.006 (n = 3,746)lag +1: r = -0.028 (n = 3,639)lag +2: r = -0.017 (n = 3,520)lag +3: r = -0.004 (n = 3,397)lag +4: r = -0.013 (n = 3,281)lag +5: r = -0.009 (n = 3,154)lag +6: r = 0.005 (n = 3,035)lag +7: r = 0.006 (n = 2,932)lag +8: r = 0.019 (n = 2,836)lag +9: r = 0.049 (n = 2,714)lag +10: r = 0.060 (n = 2,558)

Same year (lag 0): -0.006. A peak away from zero does not show which comes first. These series change slowly — this year’s value is close to last year’s. That makes the curve smooth and nearly symmetric, whatever produced the data. Even a sharp peak at one lag (a gap of some years) would not prove that one measure changes the other.

This curve peaks at the edge of the window (lag +10), so it is still drifting where the search stops. That pattern usually reflects a slow trend left over in the data, not a link with real timing. The peak value should not be read as the “true” link at the right lag.

The data


% per year
pupils per teacher		Years
United Arab Emirates ARE4.68%24.52025, 2016
Saudi Arabia SAU4.63%13.82025, 2018
Oman OMN3.96%9.672025, 2018
Qatar QAT3.92%12.22025, 2018
Chad TCD3.41%56.92025, 2016
Central African Republic CAF3.37%83.42025, 2016
Niger NER3.22%36.32025, 2017
Congo, Dem. Rep. COD3.2%33.22025, 2015
Georgia GEO3.18%8.982025, 2018
Angola AGO3%502025, 2015
Ukraine UKR2.92%132025, 2018
Mali MLI2.9%37.82025, 2018
Tanzania TZA2.86%50.62025, 2018
Mozambique MOZ2.85%55.32025, 2018
Mauritania MRT2.78%34.32025, 2018

World Bank, World Development Indicators
World Bank, World Development Indicators

Sources

Population growth

Population growth (annual %)

World Bank · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

Pupil-teacher ratio

Pupil-teacher ratio, primary

UNESCO Institute for Statistics · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

The World Bank's copy stops at 2019.

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2010–2025. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Population growth and Pupil-teacher ratio

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Population growth changes Pupil-teacher ratio, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Population growth or Pupil-teacher ratio