placestats

Birth rate vs. Population growth

Fades after adjusting for income

Across 199 countries, Birth rate and Population growth rise and fall together at r = +0.66 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). Comparing only countries with similar income (GDP per person) leaves r = +0.60, which could easily be chance (q = 0.10, allowing for the many pairs tested, and allowing for countries in the same region being alike).

Comparing countries across the middle half of population growth, 0.207% to 1.88% per year, birth rate is 8.81 per 1,000 people higher at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 4.48 per 1,000 people.

Link before adjusting (r)+0.664p = 1.2e-26 · 199 countries
After adjusting for national income+0.597p = 1.8e-20 · likely range [+0.50, +0.68]
p, allowing for regions0.000standard error 0.067 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.100across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Birth rate · per 1,000 peoplelink with income -0.85 · proxy
Population growth · % per yearlink with income -0.50 · moderate

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Birth rate · per 1,000 people →Population growth · % per year →4.246.2-3.43%4.68%Aruba: 7.59 per 1,000 people, 0.729% per yearAfghanistan: 35 per 1,000 people, 2.77% per yearAngola: 37.2 per 1,000 people, 3% per yearAlbania: 10.1 per 1,000 people, -1.17% per yearAndorra: 6.85 per 1,000 people, 1.17% per yearUnited Arab Emirates: 9.82 per 1,000 people, 4.68% per yearArgentina: 11.1 per 1,000 people, 0.339% per yearArmenia: 11.1 per 1,000 people, 1.74% per yearAntigua and Barbuda: 11.7 per 1,000 people, 0.465% per yearAustralia: 10.7 per 1,000 people, 1.53% per yearAustria: 8.4 per 1,000 people, 0.328% per yearAzerbaijan: 10 per 1,000 people, 0.432% per yearBurundi: 33.2 per 1,000 people, 2.41% per yearBelgium: 9.2 per 1,000 people, 0.699% per yearBenin: 33.4 per 1,000 people, 2.4% per yearBurkina Faso: 31.3 per 1,000 people, 2.21% per yearBangladesh: 20 per 1,000 people, 1.22% per yearBulgaria: 8.3 per 1,000 people, -0.126% per yearBahrain: 12 per 1,000 people, 0.734% per yearBahamas, The: 10.8 per 1,000 people, 0.435% per yearBosnia and Herzegovina: 7.72 per 1,000 people, -0.766% per yearBelarus: 7.03 per 1,000 people, -0.512% per yearBelize: 18.1 per 1,000 people, 1.39% per yearBermuda: 7.92 per 1,000 people, -0.125% per yearBolivia: 21 per 1,000 people, 1.35% per yearBrazil: 12.1 per 1,000 people, 0.383% per yearBarbados: 11.1 per 1,000 people, 0.0552% per yearBrunei Darussalam: 13.3 per 1,000 people, 0.777% per yearBhutan: 12.5 per 1,000 people, 0.65% per yearBotswana: 24.4 per 1,000 people, 1.61% per yearCentral African Republic: 46.2 per 1,000 people, 3.37% per yearCanada: 8.9 per 1,000 people, 0.939% per yearSwitzerland: 8.7 per 1,000 people, 0.96% per yearChile: 8.72 per 1,000 people, 0.48% per yearChina: 6.77 per 1,000 people, -0.17% per yearCote d'Ivoire: 31.6 per 1,000 people, 2.4% per yearCameroon: 33.3 per 1,000 people, 2.56% per yearCongo, Dem. Rep.: 40.9 per 1,000 people, 3.2% per yearCongo, Rep.: 30.4 per 1,000 people, 2.36% per yearColombia: 13.3 per 1,000 people, 1.01% per yearComoros: 28.2 per 1,000 people, 1.85% per yearCabo Verde: 12.2 per 1,000 people, 0.466% per yearCosta Rica: 9.99 per 1,000 people, 0.448% per yearCuracao: 7.2 per 1,000 people, 0.19% per yearCayman Islands: 11.6 per 1,000 people, 1.85% per yearCyprus: 10.5 per 1,000 people, 0.914% per yearCzechia: 7.7 per 1,000 people, -0.167% per yearGermany: 8.1 per 1,000 people, -0.0304% per yearDjibouti: 20.9 per 1,000 people, 1.31% per yearDominica: 11 per 1,000 people, -0.506% per yearDenmark: 9.5 per 1,000 people, 0.537% per yearDominican Republic: 17.6 per 1,000 people, 0.81% per yearAlgeria: 18.8 per 1,000 people, 1.32% per yearEcuador: 14.8 per 1,000 people, 0.848% per yearEgypt, Arab Rep.: 20.9 per 1,000 people, 1.56% per yearSpain: 6.5 per 1,000 people, 1.03% per yearEstonia: 7.1 per 1,000 people, -0.428% per yearEthiopia: 31.5 per 1,000 people, 2.55% per yearFinland: 7.8 per 1,000 people, 0.471% per yearFiji: 17.9 per 1,000 people, 0.469% per yearFrance: 9.7 per 1,000 people, 0.246% per yearFaroe Islands: 10.8 per 1,000 people, 0.475% per yearMicronesia, Fed. Sts.: 22.3 per 1,000 people, 0.461% per yearGabon: 27.1 per 1,000 people, 2.11% per yearUnited Kingdom: 9.89 per 1,000 people, 0.297% per yearGeorgia: 11.3 per 1,000 people, 3.18% per yearGhana: 25.9 per 1,000 people, 1.83% per yearGuinea: 33.3 per 1,000 people, 2.31% per yearGambia, The: 29.9 per 1,000 people, 2.23% per yearGuinea-Bissau: 29.6 per 1,000 people, 2.16% per yearEquatorial Guinea: 30 per 1,000 people, 2.4% per yearGreece: 6.6 per 1,000 people, 0.0848% per yearGrenada: 11.5 per 1,000 people, 0.0819% per yearGreenland: 12 per 1,000 people, -0.0088% per yearGuatemala: 20.6 per 1,000 people, 1.52% per yearGuyana: 19.9 per 1,000 people, 0.588% per yearHong Kong SAR, China: 4.9 per 1,000 people, -0.335% per yearHonduras: 21.6 per 1,000 people, 1.65% per yearCroatia: 8.3 per 1,000 people, 0.258% per yearHaiti: 21.9 per 1,000 people, 1.13% per yearHungary: 8.2 per 1,000 people, -0.501% per yearIndonesia: 15.8 per 1,000 people, 0.785% per yearIndia: 16 per 1,000 people, 0.887% per yearIreland: 10 per 1,000 people, 1.63% per yearIran, Islamic Rep.: 12.6 per 1,000 people, 0.924% per yearIraq: 25.6 per 1,000 people, 2.1% per yearIceland: 11.2 per 1,000 people, 1.51% per yearIsrael: 18.6 per 1,000 people, 1.2% per yearItaly: 6.3 per 1,000 people, -0.0629% per yearJamaica: 11.4 per 1,000 people, -0.0739% per yearJordan: 20.5 per 1,000 people, -0.279% per yearJapan: 5.7 per 1,000 people, -0.492% per yearKazakhstan: 19.5 per 1,000 people, 1.21% per yearKenya: 27 per 1,000 people, 1.93% per yearKyrgyz Republic: 19.4 per 1,000 people, 1.66% per yearCambodia: 20.3 per 1,000 people, 1.18% per yearKiribati: 25.3 per 1,000 people, 1.45% per yearSt. Kitts and Nevis: 11.7 per 1,000 people, 0.169% per yearKorea, Rep.: 4.7 per 1,000 people, -0.129% per yearKuwait: 10 per 1,000 people, -0.655% per yearLao PDR: 20.9 per 1,000 people, 1.32% per yearLebanon: 16 per 1,000 people, 0.746% per yearLiberia: 30.6 per 1,000 people, 2.09% per yearLibya: 16.5 per 1,000 people, 1.04% per yearSt. Lucia: 11.2 per 1,000 people, 0.225% per yearSri Lanka: 10.1 per 1,000 people, -0.733% per yearLesotho: 23.8 per 1,000 people, 1.1% per yearLithuania: 6.6 per 1,000 people, 0.0172% per yearLuxembourg: 9.5 per 1,000 people, 1.46% per yearLatvia: 6.9 per 1,000 people, -0.988% per yearMacao SAR, China: 5.3 per 1,000 people, -0.16% per yearMorocco: 16.4 per 1,000 people, 0.914% per yearMoldova: 10.6 per 1,000 people, -1.75% per yearMadagascar: 31.7 per 1,000 people, 2.4% per yearMaldives: 10.6 per 1,000 people, 0.355% per yearMexico: 15.5 per 1,000 people, 0.826% per yearMarshall Islands: 20.1 per 1,000 people, -3.43% per yearNorth Macedonia: 8.8 per 1,000 people, -0.189% per yearMali: 39.5 per 1,000 people, 2.9% per yearMalta: 7.7 per 1,000 people, 1.89% per yearMyanmar: 16.5 per 1,000 people, 0.641% per yearMontenegro: 11.2 per 1,000 people, -0.0635% per yearMongolia: 16.9 per 1,000 people, 1.25% per yearMozambique: 37 per 1,000 people, 2.85% per yearMauritania: 34 per 1,000 people, 2.78% per yearMauritius: 10.3 per 1,000 people, -0.164% per yearMalawi: 31.1 per 1,000 people, 2.56% per yearMalaysia: 12.4 per 1,000 people, 1.17% per yearNamibia: 25.9 per 1,000 people, 2.05% per yearNiger: 41.4 per 1,000 people, 3.22% per yearNigeria: 32.5 per 1,000 people, 2.06% per yearNicaragua: 19.1 per 1,000 people, 1.31% per yearNetherlands: 9.2 per 1,000 people, 0.522% per yearNorway: 9.7 per 1,000 people, 0.69% per yearNepal: 19 per 1,000 people, -0.111% per yearNaoero: 24.6 per 1,000 people, 0.651% per yearNew Zealand: 11 per 1,000 people, 0.654% per yearOman: 16.8 per 1,000 people, 3.96% per yearPakistan: 27.4 per 1,000 people, 1.56% per yearPanama: 15.9 per 1,000 people, 1.22% per yearPeru: 15.8 per 1,000 people, 1.04% per yearPhilippines: 15.9 per 1,000 people, 0.811% per yearPalau: 10.7 per 1,000 people, -0.181% per yearPapua New Guinea: 24.3 per 1,000 people, 1.75% per yearPoland: 6.9 per 1,000 people, -0.338% per yearPuerto Rico (US): 5.7 per 1,000 people, -0.554% per yearPortugal: 7.9 per 1,000 people, 1.03% per yearParaguay: 19.7 per 1,000 people, 1.2% per yearWest Bank and Gaza: 26.5 per 1,000 people, 2.33% per yearQatar: 9.52 per 1,000 people, 3.92% per yearRomania: 7.5 per 1,000 people, -0.166% per yearRussian Federation: 8.4 per 1,000 people, -0.109% per yearRwanda: 28.1 per 1,000 people, 2.17% per yearSaudi Arabia: 16.5 per 1,000 people, 4.63% per yearSudan: 33 per 1,000 people, 2.38% per yearSenegal: 29.2 per 1,000 people, 2.3% per yearSingapore: 7.4 per 1,000 people, 1.22% per yearSolomon Islands: 26.7 per 1,000 people, 2.35% per yearSierra Leone: 30.1 per 1,000 people, 2.04% per yearEl Salvador: 15.6 per 1,000 people, 0.43% per yearSan Marino: 4.2 per 1,000 people, 0.388% per yearSomalia, Fed. Rep.: 42.3 per 1,000 people, 3.34% per yearSerbia: 9.2 per 1,000 people, -0.568% per yearSao Tome and Principe: 28.1 per 1,000 people, 1.98% per yearSuriname: 17.2 per 1,000 people, 0.851% per yearSlovak Republic: 8.5 per 1,000 people, -0.152% per yearSlovenia: 7.9 per 1,000 people, 0.168% per yearSweden: 9.3 per 1,000 people, 0.254% per yearEswatini: 23.6 per 1,000 people, 1.07% per yearSint Maarten (Dutch part): 9.09 per 1,000 people, 1.31% per yearSeychelles: 11 per 1,000 people, 1.13% per yearSyrian Arab Republic: 23.2 per 1,000 people, 3.77% per yearTurks and Caicos Islands: 10.5 per 1,000 people, 0.685% per yearChad: 43.3 per 1,000 people, 3.41% per yearTogo: 32.1 per 1,000 people, 2.18% per yearThailand: 8.12 per 1,000 people, -0.0672% per yearTajikistan: 25.3 per 1,000 people, 1.83% per yearTurkmenistan: 20.9 per 1,000 people, 1.65% per yearTimor-Leste: 21.8 per 1,000 people, 1.27% per yearTonga: 23 per 1,000 people, -0.417% per yearTrinidad and Tobago: 10.5 per 1,000 people, -0.0416% per yearTunisia: 13.4 per 1,000 people, 0.58% per yearTurkiye: 11 per 1,000 people, 0.42% per yearTuvalu: 22 per 1,000 people, -1.61% per yearTanzania: 34.8 per 1,000 people, 2.86% per yearUganda: 34.4 per 1,000 people, 2.7% per yearUkraine: 5.47 per 1,000 people, 2.92% per yearUruguay: 9.8 per 1,000 people, -0.0561% per yearUnited States: 10.6 per 1,000 people, 0.522% per yearUzbekistan: 25.6 per 1,000 people, 1.88% per yearSt. Vincent and the Grenadines: 12 per 1,000 people, -0.69% per yearVirgin Islands (U.S.): 11.1 per 1,000 people, -0.562% per yearViet Nam: 13.4 per 1,000 people, 0.603% per yearVanuatu: 27.7 per 1,000 people, 2.23% per yearSamoa: 25 per 1,000 people, 0.589% per yearKosovo: 11.9 per 1,000 people, -1.1% per yearSouth Africa: 18.5 per 1,000 people, 1.15% per yearZambia: 32.7 per 1,000 people, 2.77% per yearZimbabwe: 29.9 per 1,000 people, 1.88% per yearARECAFLVAMDAMHLQATSAUSOMTCDTONTUV

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted+0.6641.2e-26199
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted+0.7027.3e-31199
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income+0.5971.8e-20199
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income+0.5991.0e-20199

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 199 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.067 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from +0.589 (without SAU) to +0.633 (without UKR). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: UKR (+0.036).

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific31+0.29
Europe & Central Asia53+0.44
Latin America & Caribbean38+0.62
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan22+0.41
Sub-Saharan Africa46+0.91

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third67+0.60
Middle third66+0.51
Richest third66+0.49

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians112+0.60
Muslims50+0.62

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France25+0.73
Never a European colony21+0.70
Spain20+0.84
United Kingdom63+0.55

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = +0.629 after dropping 3 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 35years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

Within countries over time, there is no link that is clearly more than chance (r = +0.118, comparing each country only with itself over the years, and each year only with the same year elsewhere). Whatever the cross-country picture shows, countries whose birth rate moved did not tend to see their population growth move with it.

Across countries (adjusted)+0.597for comparison
Within countries+0.198each country vs itself
…and vs the same year elsewhere+0.118q = 0.054 · 217 countries
Year-on-year changes-0.103q = 0.113

7,592 country-years (one country in one year), 217 countries, 1990–2024, about 35 years each on average. Share of the variation that happens within countries over time: 53% for Birth rate, 11% for Population growth. The margins of error allow for each country appearing many times, and for each year’s value being close to the year before.

Year-to-year changes are a cautious test, not a final answer. Looking only at changes from one year to the next removes each country’s own trends. But it also makes measurement mistakes louder, which pulls the results toward zero. A near-zero result here is weak evidence of no link, not proof.

With one measure years behind the other

0.20−0.2-100+10years Population growth trails Birth rate →lag -10: r = -0.047 (n = 5,423)lag -9: r = -0.024 (n = 5,640)lag -8: r = 0.002 (n = 5,857)lag -7: r = 0.029 (n = 6,074)lag -6: r = 0.051 (n = 6,291)lag -5: r = 0.072 (n = 6,508)lag -4: r = 0.098 (n = 6,725)lag -3: r = 0.124 (n = 6,942)lag -2: r = 0.151 (n = 7,158)lag -1: r = 0.169 (n = 7,375)lag +0: r = 0.118 (n = 7,592)lag +1: r = 0.111 (n = 7,593)lag +2: r = 0.182 (n = 7,377)lag +3: r = 0.183 (n = 7,160)lag +4: r = 0.176 (n = 6,943)lag +5: r = 0.169 (n = 6,726)lag +6: r = 0.162 (n = 6,509)lag +7: r = 0.151 (n = 6,292)lag +8: r = 0.134 (n = 6,075)lag +9: r = 0.116 (n = 5,858)lag +10: r = 0.114 (n = 5,641)

Same year (lag 0): +0.118. A peak away from zero does not show which comes first. These series change slowly — this year’s value is close to last year’s. That makes the curve smooth and nearly symmetric, whatever produced the data. Even a sharp peak at one lag (a gap of some years) would not prove that one measure changes the other.

The largest value on this curve (+0.18 at lag +3) is higher than the same-year one by 0.06. That gap is not a finding. It is the largest of 21 closely related estimates, and picking the biggest of many tests always makes it look bigger. That is exactly why nothing on this site is ranked or chosen by lag.

The data


per 1,000 people
% per year		Years
Central African Republic CAF46.23.37%2024, 2025
Chad TCD43.33.41%2024, 2025
Somalia, Fed. Rep. SOM42.33.34%2024, 2025
Niger NER41.43.22%2024, 2025
Congo, Dem. Rep. COD40.93.2%2024, 2025
Mali MLI39.52.9%2024, 2025
Angola AGO37.23%2024, 2025
Mozambique MOZ372.85%2024, 2025
Afghanistan AFG352.77%2024, 2025
Tanzania TZA34.82.86%2024, 2025
Uganda UGA34.42.7%2024, 2025
Mauritania MRT342.78%2024, 2025
Benin BEN33.42.4%2024, 2025
Cameroon CMR33.32.56%2024, 2025
Guinea GIN33.32.31%2024, 2025

World Bank, World Development Indicators
World Bank, World Development Indicators

Sources

Birth rate

Birth rate, crude (per 1,000 people)

World Bank · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

Population growth

Population growth (annual %)

World Bank · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2024–2025. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Birth rate and Population growth

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Birth rate changes Population growth, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Birth rate or Population growth