placestats

Fertility rate vs. Population growth

Fades after adjusting for income

Across 199 countries, Fertility rate and Population growth rise and fall together at r = +0.64 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). Comparing only countries with similar income (GDP per person) leaves r = +0.53, which could easily be chance (q = 0.16, allowing for the many pairs tested, and allowing for countries in the same region being alike).

Comparing countries across the middle half of population growth, 0.207% to 1.88% per year, fertility rate is 1.06 births per woman higher at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 0.553 births per woman.

Link before adjusting (r)+0.644p = 1.0e-24 · 199 countries
After adjusting for national income+0.529p = 1.2e-15 · likely range [+0.42, +0.62]
p, allowing for regions6.2e-5standard error 0.054 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.158across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Fertility rate · births per womanlink with income -0.81 · proxy
Population growth · % per yearlink with income -0.50 · moderate

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Fertility rate · births per woman →Population growth · % per year →0.5826.03-3.43%4.68%Aruba: 1.61 births per woman, 0.729% per yearAfghanistan: 4.76 births per woman, 2.77% per yearAngola: 5.05 births per woman, 3% per yearAlbania: 1.34 births per woman, -1.17% per yearAndorra: 1.09 births per woman, 1.17% per yearUnited Arab Emirates: 1.21 births per woman, 4.68% per yearArgentina: 1.5 births per woman, 0.339% per yearArmenia: 1.7 births per woman, 1.74% per yearAntigua and Barbuda: 1.58 births per woman, 0.465% per yearAustralia: 1.48 births per woman, 1.53% per yearAustria: 1.31 births per woman, 0.328% per yearAzerbaijan: 1.43 births per woman, 0.432% per yearBurundi: 4.79 births per woman, 2.41% per yearBelgium: 1.44 births per woman, 0.699% per yearBenin: 4.48 births per woman, 2.4% per yearBurkina Faso: 4.11 births per woman, 2.21% per yearBangladesh: 2.14 births per woman, 1.22% per yearBulgaria: 1.72 births per woman, -0.126% per yearBahrain: 1.8 births per woman, 0.734% per yearBahamas, The: 1.37 births per woman, 0.435% per yearBosnia and Herzegovina: 1.49 births per woman, -0.766% per yearBelarus: 1.22 births per woman, -0.512% per yearBelize: 2.02 births per woman, 1.39% per yearBermuda: 1.41 births per woman, -0.125% per yearBolivia: 2.52 births per woman, 1.35% per yearBrazil: 1.61 births per woman, 0.383% per yearBarbados: 1.71 births per woman, 0.0552% per yearBrunei Darussalam: 1.73 births per woman, 0.777% per yearBhutan: 1.45 births per woman, 0.65% per yearBotswana: 2.7 births per woman, 1.61% per yearCentral African Republic: 5.95 births per woman, 3.37% per yearCanada: 1.25 births per woman, 0.939% per yearSwitzerland: 1.29 births per woman, 0.96% per yearChile: 1.14 births per woman, 0.48% per yearChina: 1.01 births per woman, -0.17% per yearCote d'Ivoire: 4.23 births per woman, 2.4% per yearCameroon: 4.26 births per woman, 2.56% per yearCongo, Dem. Rep.: 5.98 births per woman, 3.2% per yearCongo, Rep.: 4.11 births per woman, 2.36% per yearColombia: 1.63 births per woman, 1.01% per yearComoros: 3.82 births per woman, 1.85% per yearCabo Verde: 1.51 births per woman, 0.466% per yearCosta Rica: 1.32 births per woman, 0.448% per yearCuracao: 1.4 births per woman, 0.19% per yearCayman Islands: 1.52 births per woman, 1.85% per yearCyprus: 1.38 births per woman, 0.914% per yearCzechia: 1.36 births per woman, -0.167% per yearGermany: 1.36 births per woman, -0.0304% per yearDjibouti: 2.62 births per woman, 1.31% per yearDominica: 1.48 births per woman, -0.506% per yearDenmark: 1.47 births per woman, 0.537% per yearDominican Republic: 2.22 births per woman, 0.81% per yearAlgeria: 2.72 births per woman, 1.32% per yearEcuador: 1.81 births per woman, 0.848% per yearEgypt, Arab Rep.: 2.73 births per woman, 1.56% per yearSpain: 1.1 births per woman, 1.03% per yearEstonia: 1.18 births per woman, -0.428% per yearEthiopia: 3.91 births per woman, 2.55% per yearFinland: 1.25 births per woman, 0.471% per yearFiji: 2.27 births per woman, 0.469% per yearFrance: 1.61 births per woman, 0.246% per yearFaroe Islands: 1.91 births per woman, 0.475% per yearMicronesia, Fed. Sts.: 2.74 births per woman, 0.461% per yearGabon: 3.59 births per woman, 2.11% per yearUnited Kingdom: 1.55 births per woman, 0.297% per yearGeorgia: 1.8 births per woman, 3.18% per yearGhana: 3.34 births per woman, 1.83% per yearGuinea: 4.13 births per woman, 2.31% per yearGambia, The: 3.91 births per woman, 2.23% per yearGuinea-Bissau: 3.76 births per woman, 2.16% per yearEquatorial Guinea: 4.12 births per woman, 2.4% per yearGreece: 1.24 births per woman, 0.0848% per yearGrenada: 1.47 births per woman, 0.0819% per yearGreenland: 1.71 births per woman, -0.0088% per yearGuatemala: 2.29 births per woman, 1.52% per yearGuyana: 2.4 births per woman, 0.588% per yearHong Kong SAR, China: 0.841 births per woman, -0.335% per yearHonduras: 2.48 births per woman, 1.65% per yearCroatia: 1.46 births per woman, 0.258% per yearHaiti: 2.63 births per woman, 1.13% per yearHungary: 1.41 births per woman, -0.501% per yearIndonesia: 2.12 births per woman, 0.785% per yearIndia: 1.96 births per woman, 0.887% per yearIreland: 1.47 births per woman, 1.63% per yearIran, Islamic Rep.: 1.68 births per woman, 0.924% per yearIraq: 3.22 births per woman, 2.1% per yearIceland: 1.56 births per woman, 1.51% per yearIsrael: 2.87 births per woman, 1.2% per yearItaly: 1.18 births per woman, -0.0629% per yearJamaica: 1.35 births per woman, -0.0739% per yearJordan: 2.6 births per woman, -0.279% per yearJapan: 1.15 births per woman, -0.492% per yearKazakhstan: 2.98 births per woman, 1.21% per yearKenya: 3.17 births per woman, 1.93% per yearKyrgyz Republic: 2.6 births per woman, 1.66% per yearCambodia: 2.55 births per woman, 1.18% per yearKiribati: 3.12 births per woman, 1.45% per yearSt. Kitts and Nevis: 1.53 births per woman, 0.169% per yearKorea, Rep.: 0.748 births per woman, -0.129% per yearKuwait: 1.56 births per woman, -0.655% per yearLao PDR: 2.4 births per woman, 1.32% per yearLebanon: 2.23 births per woman, 0.746% per yearLiberia: 3.86 births per woman, 2.09% per yearLibya: 2.3 births per woman, 1.04% per yearSt. Lucia: 1.39 births per woman, 0.225% per yearSri Lanka: 1.95 births per woman, -0.733% per yearLesotho: 2.66 births per woman, 1.1% per yearLithuania: 1.11 births per woman, 0.0172% per yearLuxembourg: 1.25 births per woman, 1.46% per yearLatvia: 1.24 births per woman, -0.988% per yearMacao SAR, China: 0.582 births per woman, -0.16% per yearMorocco: 2.21 births per woman, 0.914% per yearMoldova: 1.73 births per woman, -1.75% per yearMadagascar: 3.91 births per woman, 2.4% per yearMaldives: 1.56 births per woman, 0.355% per yearMexico: 1.89 births per woman, 0.826% per yearMarshall Islands: 2.86 births per woman, -3.43% per yearNorth Macedonia: 1.4 births per woman, -0.189% per yearMali: 5.51 births per woman, 2.9% per yearMalta: 1.01 births per woman, 1.89% per yearMyanmar: 2.1 births per woman, 0.641% per yearMontenegro: 1.8 births per woman, -0.0635% per yearMongolia: 2.5 births per woman, 1.25% per yearMozambique: 4.69 births per woman, 2.85% per yearMauritania: 4.63 births per woman, 2.78% per yearMauritius: 1.44 births per woman, -0.164% per yearMalawi: 3.59 births per woman, 2.56% per yearMalaysia: 1.54 births per woman, 1.17% per yearNamibia: 3.21 births per woman, 2.05% per yearNiger: 5.93 births per woman, 3.22% per yearNigeria: 4.38 births per woman, 2.06% per yearNicaragua: 2.21 births per woman, 1.31% per yearNetherlands: 1.43 births per woman, 0.522% per yearNorway: 1.45 births per woman, 0.69% per yearNepal: 1.96 births per woman, -0.111% per yearNaoero: 3.29 births per woman, 0.651% per yearNew Zealand: 1.57 births per woman, 0.654% per yearOman: 2.51 births per woman, 3.96% per yearPakistan: 3.55 births per woman, 1.56% per yearPanama: 2.11 births per woman, 1.22% per yearPeru: 1.97 births per woman, 1.04% per yearPhilippines: 1.89 births per woman, 0.811% per yearPalau: 1.88 births per woman, -0.181% per yearPapua New Guinea: 3.07 births per woman, 1.75% per yearPoland: 1.14 births per woman, -0.338% per yearPuerto Rico (US): 0.92 births per woman, -0.554% per yearPortugal: 1.41 births per woman, 1.03% per yearParaguay: 2.42 births per woman, 1.2% per yearWest Bank and Gaza: 3.25 births per woman, 2.33% per yearQatar: 1.72 births per woman, 3.92% per yearRomania: 1.39 births per woman, -0.166% per yearRussian Federation: 1.42 births per woman, -0.109% per yearRwanda: 3.65 births per woman, 2.17% per yearSaudi Arabia: 2.31 births per woman, 4.63% per yearSudan: 4.26 births per woman, 2.38% per yearSenegal: 3.77 births per woman, 2.3% per yearSingapore: 0.97 births per woman, 1.22% per yearSolomon Islands: 3.51 births per woman, 2.35% per yearSierra Leone: 3.7 births per woman, 2.04% per yearEl Salvador: 1.77 births per woman, 0.43% per yearSan Marino: 1.16 births per woman, 0.388% per yearSomalia, Fed. Rep.: 6.01 births per woman, 3.34% per yearSerbia: 1.64 births per woman, -0.568% per yearSao Tome and Principe: 3.6 births per woman, 1.98% per yearSuriname: 2.23 births per woman, 0.851% per yearSlovak Republic: 1.46 births per woman, -0.152% per yearSlovenia: 1.52 births per woman, 0.168% per yearSweden: 1.43 births per woman, 0.254% per yearEswatini: 2.72 births per woman, 1.07% per yearSint Maarten (Dutch part): 1.44 births per woman, 1.31% per yearSeychelles: 1.85 births per woman, 1.13% per yearSyrian Arab Republic: 2.7 births per woman, 3.77% per yearTurks and Caicos Islands: 1.45 births per woman, 0.685% per yearChad: 6.03 births per woman, 3.41% per yearTogo: 4.12 births per woman, 2.18% per yearThailand: 1.2 births per woman, -0.0672% per yearTajikistan: 3.04 births per woman, 1.83% per yearTurkmenistan: 2.66 births per woman, 1.65% per yearTimor-Leste: 2.63 births per woman, 1.27% per yearTonga: 3.1 births per woman, -0.417% per yearTrinidad and Tobago: 1.54 births per woman, -0.0416% per yearTunisia: 1.82 births per woman, 0.58% per yearTurkiye: 1.48 births per woman, 0.42% per yearTuvalu: 3.17 births per woman, -1.61% per yearTanzania: 4.54 births per woman, 2.86% per yearUganda: 4.17 births per woman, 2.7% per yearUkraine: 0.988 births per woman, 2.92% per yearUruguay: 1.4 births per woman, -0.0561% per yearUnited States: 1.63 births per woman, 0.522% per yearUzbekistan: 3.49 births per woman, 1.88% per yearSt. Vincent and the Grenadines: 1.76 births per woman, -0.69% per yearVirgin Islands (U.S.): 1.97 births per woman, -0.562% per yearViet Nam: 1.9 births per woman, 0.603% per yearVanuatu: 3.57 births per woman, 2.23% per yearSamoa: 3.8 births per woman, 0.589% per yearKosovo: 1.54 births per woman, -1.1% per yearSouth Africa: 2.21 births per woman, 1.15% per yearZambia: 4.04 births per woman, 2.77% per yearZimbabwe: 3.67 births per woman, 1.88% per yearALBARECAFMDAMHLQATSAUSOMTCDTONTUV

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted+0.6441.0e-24199
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted+0.6702.9e-27199
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income+0.5291.2e-15199
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income+0.5185.8e-15199

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 199 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.115 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from +0.520 (without SAU) to +0.556 (without UKR). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: UKR (+0.028).

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific31+0.08
Europe & Central Asia53+0.38
Latin America & Caribbean38+0.52
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan22+0.31
Sub-Saharan Africa46+0.89

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third67+0.50
Middle third66+0.47
Richest third66+0.42

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians112+0.53
Muslims50+0.57

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France25+0.68
Never a European colony21+0.70
Spain20+0.78
United Kingdom63+0.46

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = +0.553 after dropping 8 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 35years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

Within countries over time, there is no link that is clearly more than chance (r = +0.078, comparing each country only with itself over the years, and each year only with the same year elsewhere). Whatever the cross-country picture shows, countries whose fertility rate moved did not tend to see their population growth move with it.

Across countries (adjusted)+0.529for comparison
Within countries+0.167each country vs itself
…and vs the same year elsewhere+0.078q = 0.123 · 217 countries
Year-on-year changes+0.006q = 0.840

7,592 country-years (one country in one year), 217 countries, 1990–2024, about 35 years each on average. Share of the variation that happens within countries over time: 53% for Fertility rate, 12% for Population growth. The margins of error allow for each country appearing many times, and for each year’s value being close to the year before.

Year-to-year changes are a cautious test, not a final answer. Looking only at changes from one year to the next removes each country’s own trends. But it also makes measurement mistakes louder, which pulls the results toward zero. A near-zero result here is weak evidence of no link, not proof.

With one measure years behind the other

0.20−0.2-100+10years Population growth trails Fertility rate →lag -10: r = -0.062 (n = 5,423)lag -9: r = -0.047 (n = 5,640)lag -8: r = -0.033 (n = 5,857)lag -7: r = -0.017 (n = 6,074)lag -6: r = -0.004 (n = 6,291)lag -5: r = 0.007 (n = 6,508)lag -4: r = 0.021 (n = 6,725)lag -3: r = 0.036 (n = 6,942)lag -2: r = 0.049 (n = 7,158)lag -1: r = 0.065 (n = 7,375)lag +0: r = 0.078 (n = 7,592)lag +1: r = 0.093 (n = 7,593)lag +2: r = 0.103 (n = 7,377)lag +3: r = 0.106 (n = 7,160)lag +4: r = 0.110 (n = 6,943)lag +5: r = 0.114 (n = 6,726)lag +6: r = 0.115 (n = 6,509)lag +7: r = 0.105 (n = 6,292)lag +8: r = 0.091 (n = 6,075)lag +9: r = 0.082 (n = 5,858)lag +10: r = 0.080 (n = 5,641)

Same year (lag 0): +0.078. A peak away from zero does not show which comes first. These series change slowly — this year’s value is close to last year’s. That makes the curve smooth and nearly symmetric, whatever produced the data. Even a sharp peak at one lag (a gap of some years) would not prove that one measure changes the other.

The data


births per woman
% per year		Years
Chad TCD6.033.41%2024, 2025
Somalia, Fed. Rep. SOM6.013.34%2024, 2025
Congo, Dem. Rep. COD5.983.2%2024, 2025
Central African Republic CAF5.953.37%2024, 2025
Niger NER5.933.22%2024, 2025
Mali MLI5.512.9%2024, 2025
Angola AGO5.053%2024, 2025
Burundi BDI4.792.41%2024, 2025
Afghanistan AFG4.762.77%2024, 2025
Mozambique MOZ4.692.85%2024, 2025
Mauritania MRT4.632.78%2024, 2025
Tanzania TZA4.542.86%2024, 2025
Benin BEN4.482.4%2024, 2025
Nigeria NGA4.382.06%2024, 2025
Sudan SDN4.262.38%2024, 2025

World Bank, World Development Indicators
World Bank, World Development Indicators

Sources

Fertility rate

Fertility rate, total (births per woman)

World Bank · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

Population growth

Population growth (annual %)

World Bank · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2024–2025. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Fertility rate and Population growth

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Fertility rate changes Population growth, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Fertility rate or Population growth