placestats

Informal employment vs. Population growth

Fades after adjusting for income

Across 140 countries, Informal employment and Population growth rise and fall together at r = +0.64 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). Comparing only countries with similar income (GDP per person) shrinks it to +0.33, which could easily be chance (q = 0.15, allowing for the many pairs tested, and allowing for countries in the same region being alike). So the first figure mostly shows richer countries differing from poorer ones, not a link between these two things.

Comparing countries across the middle half of informal employment, 16% to 83.9% of employment, population growth is 1.46% per year higher at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 1.22% per year.

Link before adjusting (r)+0.645p = 8.0e-18 · 140 countries
After adjusting for national income+0.332p = 6.7e-5 · likely range [+0.17, +0.47]
p, allowing for regions0.034standard error 0.115 · 6 regions
Check for luck (q)0.146across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Informal employment · % of employmentlink with income -0.88 · proxy
Population growth · % per yearlink with income -0.50 · moderate

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Informal employment · % of employment →Population growth · % per year →0.63%98.5%-3.43%3.41%Afghanistan: 86.1% of employment, 2.77% per yearAngola: 95.3% of employment, 3% per yearArgentina: 51.6% of employment, 0.339% per yearArmenia: 76.1% of employment, 1.74% per yearAntigua and Barbuda: 12.8% of employment, 0.465% per yearAustria: 1.32% of employment, 0.328% per yearBurundi: 98% of employment, 2.41% per yearBelgium: 1.37% of employment, 0.699% per yearBenin: 96.3% of employment, 2.4% per yearBurkina Faso: 93.8% of employment, 2.21% per yearBangladesh: 84% of employment, 1.22% per yearBulgaria: 1.2% of employment, -0.126% per yearBahamas, The: 18.3% of employment, 0.435% per yearBosnia and Herzegovina: 16.6% of employment, -0.766% per yearBolivia: 83.9% of employment, 1.35% per yearBrazil: 35.6% of employment, 0.383% per yearBarbados: 61.8% of employment, 0.0552% per yearBrunei Darussalam: 21.4% of employment, 0.777% per yearBotswana: 75.6% of employment, 1.61% per yearSwitzerland: 1.48% of employment, 0.96% per yearChile: 26.4% of employment, 0.48% per yearCote d'Ivoire: 92.1% of employment, 2.4% per yearCameroon: 87.1% of employment, 2.56% per yearCongo, Dem. Rep.: 96.3% of employment, 3.2% per yearColombia: 56% of employment, 1.01% per yearComoros: 88.8% of employment, 1.85% per yearCabo Verde: 60.6% of employment, 0.466% per yearCosta Rica: 36.1% of employment, 0.448% per yearCyprus: 1.68% of employment, 0.914% per yearCzechia: 2.26% of employment, -0.167% per yearGermany: 2.49% of employment, -0.0304% per yearDjibouti: 47.6% of employment, 1.31% per yearDenmark: 2.82% of employment, 0.537% per yearDominican Republic: 54.7% of employment, 0.81% per yearEcuador: 68.5% of employment, 0.848% per yearEgypt, Arab Rep.: 68.6% of employment, 1.56% per yearSpain: 2.2% of employment, 1.03% per yearEstonia: 2.4% of employment, -0.428% per yearEthiopia: 77.7% of employment, 2.55% per yearFinland: 2.19% of employment, 0.471% per yearFiji: 45.7% of employment, 0.469% per yearFrance: 3.15% of employment, 0.246% per yearUnited Kingdom: 6.51% of employment, 0.297% per yearGeorgia: 51.5% of employment, 3.18% per yearGhana: 78% of employment, 1.83% per yearGambia, The: 83.9% of employment, 2.23% per yearGuinea-Bissau: 94.8% of employment, 2.16% per yearGreece: 3.58% of employment, 0.0848% per yearGrenada: 48% of employment, 0.0819% per yearGuatemala: 75.9% of employment, 1.52% per yearGuyana: 51% of employment, 0.588% per yearHonduras: 82.6% of employment, 1.65% per yearCroatia: 1.17% of employment, 0.258% per yearHaiti: 91.6% of employment, 1.13% per yearHungary: 1.31% of employment, -0.501% per yearIndonesia: 81% of employment, 0.785% per yearIndia: 88.1% of employment, 0.887% per yearIreland: 1.9% of employment, 1.63% per yearIraq: 67.6% of employment, 2.1% per yearIceland: 1.97% of employment, 1.51% per yearItaly: 3.42% of employment, -0.0629% per yearJamaica: 54.6% of employment, -0.0739% per yearJordan: 55.1% of employment, -0.279% per yearKenya: 86.5% of employment, 1.93% per yearKyrgyz Republic: 57.5% of employment, 1.66% per yearCambodia: 89.4% of employment, 1.18% per yearKiribati: 61.5% of employment, 1.45% per yearKorea, Rep.: 29.1% of employment, -0.129% per yearLao PDR: 90.5% of employment, 1.32% per yearLebanon: 55.5% of employment, 0.746% per yearLiberia: 89.3% of employment, 2.09% per yearSt. Lucia: 28.3% of employment, 0.225% per yearSri Lanka: 67.6% of employment, -0.733% per yearLesotho: 89.1% of employment, 1.1% per yearLithuania: 3.2% of employment, 0.0172% per yearLuxembourg: 1.93% of employment, 1.46% per yearLatvia: 2.17% of employment, -0.988% per yearMoldova: 52.2% of employment, -1.75% per yearMadagascar: 96.1% of employment, 2.4% per yearMaldives: 47.3% of employment, 0.355% per yearMexico: 56.4% of employment, 0.826% per yearMarshall Islands: 32.6% of employment, -3.43% per yearNorth Macedonia: 11.1% of employment, -0.189% per yearMali: 94.4% of employment, 2.9% per yearMalta: 0.63% of employment, 1.89% per yearMyanmar: 80.7% of employment, 0.641% per yearMongolia: 27.1% of employment, 1.25% per yearMozambique: 95.5% of employment, 2.85% per yearMauritania: 89.3% of employment, 2.78% per yearMauritius: 23.4% of employment, -0.164% per yearMalawi: 92.7% of employment, 2.56% per yearNamibia: 55.6% of employment, 2.05% per yearNiger: 98.5% of employment, 3.22% per yearNigeria: 93.1% of employment, 2.06% per yearNicaragua: 81.8% of employment, 1.31% per yearNetherlands: 2.63% of employment, 0.522% per yearNorway: 1.43% of employment, 0.69% per yearNepal: 81.5% of employment, -0.111% per yearNaoero: 47.9% of employment, 0.651% per yearPakistan: 88.7% of employment, 1.56% per yearPanama: 58.7% of employment, 1.22% per yearPeru: 70.5% of employment, 1.04% per yearPalau: 7.27% of employment, -0.181% per yearPoland: 8.62% of employment, -0.338% per yearPortugal: 4.73% of employment, 1.03% per yearParaguay: 64.5% of employment, 1.2% per yearWest Bank and Gaza: 48.8% of employment, 2.33% per yearRomania: 2.21% of employment, -0.166% per yearRussian Federation: 19.3% of employment, -0.109% per yearRwanda: 84.3% of employment, 2.17% per yearSudan: 94.2% of employment, 2.38% per yearSenegal: 89.2% of employment, 2.3% per yearSierra Leone: 93.1% of employment, 2.04% per yearEl Salvador: 64% of employment, 0.43% per yearSomalia, Fed. Rep.: 81.9% of employment, 3.34% per yearSerbia: 17.8% of employment, -0.568% per yearSuriname: 50.9% of employment, 0.851% per yearSlovak Republic: 4.37% of employment, -0.152% per yearSlovenia: 0.7% of employment, 0.168% per yearSweden: 2.83% of employment, 0.254% per yearEswatini: 53.3% of employment, 1.07% per yearSeychelles: 14.2% of employment, 1.13% per yearChad: 96.9% of employment, 3.41% per yearTogo: 92.3% of employment, 2.18% per yearThailand: 63.2% of employment, -0.0672% per yearTajikistan: 63.6% of employment, 1.83% per yearTimor-Leste: 80.6% of employment, 1.27% per yearTonga: 59.2% of employment, -0.417% per yearTunisia: 36.9% of employment, 0.58% per yearTurkiye: 27.7% of employment, 0.42% per yearTuvalu: 20.1% of employment, -1.61% per yearTanzania: 90.8% of employment, 2.86% per yearUganda: 94.5% of employment, 2.7% per yearUruguay: 28.5% of employment, -0.0561% per yearViet Nam: 67% of employment, 0.603% per yearVanuatu: 72.4% of employment, 2.23% per yearSamoa: 51.5% of employment, 0.589% per yearSouth Africa: 34.8% of employment, 1.15% per yearZambia: 82.7% of employment, 2.77% per yearZimbabwe: 85% of employment, 1.88% per yearCODGEOIRLLKALVAMDAMHLMLTNERTCDTUV

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted+0.6458.0e-18140
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted+0.6941.8e-21140
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income+0.3326.7e-5140
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income+0.3774.6e-6140

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 140 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.313 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from +0.277 (without TUV) to +0.352 (without LKA). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: TUV (-0.055).

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific19+0.53
Europe & Central Asia40+0.54
Latin America & Caribbean26+0.59
Sub-Saharan Africa40+0.45

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third47+0.62
Middle third46+0.42
Richest third47+0.39

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians90+0.32
Muslims31+0.41

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France19+0.43
Never a European colony12-0.02
Spain16+0.70
United Kingdom43+0.38

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = +0.293 after dropping 1 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 26years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

Within countries over time, there is no link that is clearly more than chance (r = -0.052, comparing each country only with itself over the years, and each year only with the same year elsewhere). Whatever the cross-country picture shows, countries whose informal employment moved did not tend to see their population growth move with it.

Across countries (adjusted)+0.332for comparison
Within countries+0.017each country vs itself
…and vs the same year elsewhere-0.052q = 0.473 · 82 countries
Year-on-year changes-0.019q = 0.677
Read with care.
  • Almost all of this indicator's variation is between countries, not within them, so the within-country estimate rests on a small part of the data.

1,190 country-years (one country in one year), 82 countries, 2000–2025, about 15 years each on average. Share of the variation that happens within countries over time: 2% for Informal employment, 15% for Population growth. The margins of error allow for each country appearing many times, and for each year’s value being close to the year before.

Year-to-year changes are a cautious test, not a final answer. Looking only at changes from one year to the next removes each country’s own trends. But it also makes measurement mistakes louder, which pulls the results toward zero. A near-zero result here is weak evidence of no link, not proof.

With one measure years behind the other

0.20−0.2-100+10years Population growth trails Informal employment →lag -10: r = 0.175 (n = 1,190)lag -9: r = 0.166 (n = 1,190)lag -8: r = 0.103 (n = 1,190)lag -7: r = 0.093 (n = 1,190)lag -6: r = 0.067 (n = 1,190)lag -5: r = 0.030 (n = 1,190)lag -4: r = -0.010 (n = 1,190)lag -3: r = -0.053 (n = 1,190)lag -2: r = -0.052 (n = 1,190)lag -1: r = -0.037 (n = 1,190)lag +0: r = -0.052 (n = 1,190)lag +1: r = -0.072 (n = 1,181)lag +2: r = -0.084 (n = 1,118)lag +3: r = -0.102 (n = 1,037)lag +4: r = -0.126 (n = 959)lag +5: r = -0.123 (n = 877)lag +6: r = -0.122 (n = 810)lag +7: r = -0.099 (n = 736)lag +8: r = -0.070 (n = 663)lag +9: r = -0.105 (n = 590)lag +10: r = -0.098 (n = 526)

Same year (lag 0): -0.052. A peak away from zero does not show which comes first. These series change slowly — this year’s value is close to last year’s. That makes the curve smooth and nearly symmetric, whatever produced the data. Even a sharp peak at one lag (a gap of some years) would not prove that one measure changes the other.

This curve peaks at the edge of the window (lag -10), so it is still drifting where the search stops. That pattern usually reflects a slow trend left over in the data, not a link with real timing. The peak value should not be read as the “true” link at the right lag.

The data


% of employment
% per year		Years
Niger NER98.5%3.22%2022, 2025
Burundi BDI98%2.41%2014, 2025
Chad TCD96.9%3.41%2018, 2025
Benin BEN96.3%2.4%2022, 2025
Congo, Dem. Rep. COD96.3%3.2%2020, 2025
Madagascar MDG96.1%2.4%2022, 2025
Mozambique MOZ95.5%2.85%2015, 2025
Angola AGO95.3%3%2024, 2025
Guinea-Bissau GNB94.8%2.16%2022, 2025
Uganda UGA94.5%2.7%2021, 2025
Mali MLI94.4%2.9%2023, 2025
Sudan SDN94.2%2.38%2022, 2025
Burkina Faso BFA93.8%2.21%2024, 2025
Nigeria NGA93.1%2.06%2024, 2025
Sierra Leone SLE93.1%2.04%2018, 2025

United Nations Global SDG Indicators Database; series compiled by the International Labour Organization (8.3.1) and the UN Office on Drugs and Crime (16.3.2)
World Bank, World Development Indicators

Sources

Informal employment

Share of employment that is informal

International Labour Organization · via Our World in Data · CC BY 3.0 IGO · updated annual

Workers with no contract, no social protection or no registered employer, as the ILO (the UN's labour agency) makes them comparable across national labour force surveys. The World Bank's copy of this series was retired, so it comes from the UN's database for the Sustainable Development Goals.

Population growth

Population growth (annual %)

World Bank · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2012–2025. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 6 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Informal employment and Population growth

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Informal employment changes Population growth, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Informal employment or Population growth