placestats

Extreme poverty rate vs. Population growth

Fades after adjusting for income

Across 163 countries, Extreme poverty rate and Population growth rise and fall together at r = +0.56 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). Comparing only countries with similar income (GDP per person) shrinks it to +0.35, which could easily be chance (q = 0.12, allowing for the many pairs tested, and allowing for countries in the same region being alike). So the first figure mostly shows richer countries differing from poorer ones, not a link between these two things.

Comparing countries across the middle half of extreme poverty rate, 0.4% to 17.9% of population, population growth is 0.599% per year higher at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 0.502% per year.

Link before adjusting (r)+0.562p = 5.8e-15 · 163 countries
After adjusting for national income+0.351p = 4.6e-6 · likely range [+0.21, +0.48]
p, allowing for regions0.026standard error 0.119 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.124across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Extreme poverty rate · % of populationlink with income -0.83 · proxy
Population growth · % per yearlink with income -0.50 · moderate

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Extreme poverty rate · % of population →Population growth · % per year →0%85.3%-3.43%4.68%Angola: 39.3% of population, 3% per yearAlbania: 0.3% of population, -1.17% per yearUnited Arab Emirates: 0% of population, 4.68% per yearArgentina: 1% of population, 0.339% per yearArmenia: 0.8% of population, 1.74% per yearAustralia: 0.9% of population, 1.53% per yearAustria: 0.5% of population, 0.328% per yearBurundi: 74.2% of population, 2.41% per yearBelgium: 0.1% of population, 0.699% per yearBenin: 27.2% of population, 2.4% per yearBurkina Faso: 42.1% of population, 2.21% per yearBangladesh: 5.9% of population, 1.22% per yearBulgaria: 1% of population, -0.126% per yearBosnia and Herzegovina: 0.3% of population, -0.766% per yearBelarus: 0% of population, -0.512% per yearBelize: 1% of population, 1.39% per yearBolivia: 2.1% of population, 1.35% per yearBrazil: 3% of population, 0.383% per yearBarbados: 1.7% of population, 0.0552% per yearBhutan: 0% of population, 0.65% per yearBotswana: 21.4% of population, 1.61% per yearCentral African Republic: 71.6% of population, 3.37% per yearCanada: 0.3% of population, 0.939% per yearSwitzerland: 0.2% of population, 0.96% per yearChile: 0.4% of population, 0.48% per yearChina: 0% of population, -0.17% per yearCote d'Ivoire: 20.8% of population, 2.4% per yearCameroon: 26.7% of population, 2.56% per yearCongo, Dem. Rep.: 85.3% of population, 3.2% per yearCongo, Rep.: 39.2% of population, 2.36% per yearColombia: 8.5% of population, 1.01% per yearComoros: 5.1% of population, 1.85% per yearCabo Verde: 14.6% of population, 0.466% per yearCosta Rica: 0.8% of population, 0.448% per yearCyprus: 0% of population, 0.914% per yearCzechia: 0% of population, -0.167% per yearGermany: 0.7% of population, -0.0304% per yearDjibouti: 25.4% of population, 1.31% per yearDenmark: 0.4% of population, 0.537% per yearDominican Republic: 0.8% of population, 0.81% per yearAlgeria: 0% of population, 1.32% per yearEcuador: 3.4% of population, 0.848% per yearEgypt, Arab Rep.: 1.4% of population, 1.56% per yearSpain: 0.8% of population, 1.03% per yearEstonia: 0.3% of population, -0.428% per yearEthiopia: 38.6% of population, 2.55% per yearFinland: 0.2% of population, 0.471% per yearFiji: 4.7% of population, 0.469% per yearFrance: 0.1% of population, 0.246% per yearMicronesia, Fed. Sts.: 26.1% of population, 0.461% per yearGabon: 3.8% of population, 2.11% per yearUnited Kingdom: 0.4% of population, 0.297% per yearGeorgia: 4.2% of population, 3.18% per yearGhana: 39% of population, 1.83% per yearGuinea: 11.7% of population, 2.31% per yearGambia, The: 22% of population, 2.23% per yearGuinea-Bissau: 39.9% of population, 2.16% per yearEquatorial Guinea: 8.8% of population, 2.4% per yearGreece: 0.6% of population, 0.0848% per yearGrenada: 0.8% of population, 0.0819% per yearGuatemala: 9.7% of population, 1.52% per yearHonduras: 15.7% of population, 1.65% per yearCroatia: 0.3% of population, 0.258% per yearHaiti: 40.4% of population, 1.13% per yearHungary: 0.9% of population, -0.501% per yearIndonesia: 4% of population, 0.785% per yearIndia: 5.3% of population, 0.887% per yearIreland: 0.1% of population, 1.63% per yearIran, Islamic Rep.: 2.5% of population, 0.924% per yearIraq: 0.5% of population, 2.1% per yearIceland: 0.1% of population, 1.51% per yearIsrael: 0.4% of population, 1.2% per yearItaly: 0.9% of population, -0.0629% per yearJamaica: 1.4% of population, -0.0739% per yearJordan: 0.1% of population, -0.279% per yearJapan: 1.2% of population, -0.492% per yearKazakhstan: 0% of population, 1.21% per yearKenya: 45.5% of population, 1.93% per yearKyrgyz Republic: 2.2% of population, 1.66% per yearKiribati: 0.9% of population, 1.45% per yearKorea, Rep.: 0.1% of population, -0.129% per yearLao PDR: 7.1% of population, 1.32% per yearLebanon: 5.8% of population, 0.746% per yearLiberia: 33.6% of population, 2.09% per yearSt. Lucia: 0.1% of population, 0.225% per yearSri Lanka: 2.7% of population, -0.733% per yearLesotho: 41.9% of population, 1.1% per yearLithuania: 1.1% of population, 0.0172% per yearLuxembourg: 0.1% of population, 1.46% per yearLatvia: 0.4% of population, -0.988% per yearMorocco: 3.7% of population, 0.914% per yearMoldova: 0.1% of population, -1.75% per yearMadagascar: 69.2% of population, 2.4% per yearMaldives: 0% of population, 0.355% per yearMexico: 1.6% of population, 0.826% per yearMarshall Islands: 2.1% of population, -3.43% per yearNorth Macedonia: 3.9% of population, -0.189% per yearMali: 36.1% of population, 2.9% per yearMalta: 0.4% of population, 1.89% per yearMyanmar: 10.3% of population, 0.641% per yearMontenegro: 2.5% of population, -0.0635% per yearMongolia: 0.4% of population, 1.25% per yearMozambique: 81.4% of population, 2.85% per yearMauritania: 10.2% of population, 2.78% per yearMauritius: 0.5% of population, -0.164% per yearMalawi: 75.4% of population, 2.56% per yearMalaysia: 0% of population, 1.17% per yearNamibia: 22.9% of population, 2.05% per yearNiger: 60.5% of population, 3.22% per yearNigeria: 41.8% of population, 2.06% per yearNicaragua: 6.6% of population, 1.31% per yearNetherlands: 0.1% of population, 0.522% per yearNorway: 0.2% of population, 0.69% per yearNepal: 2.4% of population, -0.111% per yearNaoero: 9.7% of population, 0.651% per yearPakistan: 23% of population, 1.56% per yearPanama: 3.1% of population, 1.22% per yearPeru: 5.1% of population, 1.04% per yearPhilippines: 5.3% of population, 0.811% per yearPoland: 0.2% of population, -0.338% per yearPortugal: 0.4% of population, 1.03% per yearParaguay: 2.1% of population, 1.2% per yearWest Bank and Gaza: 2.1% of population, 2.33% per yearQatar: 0% of population, 3.92% per yearRomania: 0.7% of population, -0.166% per yearRussian Federation: 0.1% of population, -0.109% per yearRwanda: 38.6% of population, 2.17% per yearSudan: 10.1% of population, 2.38% per yearSenegal: 17.9% of population, 2.3% per yearSolomon Islands: 40.3% of population, 2.35% per yearSierra Leone: 41.5% of population, 2.04% per yearEl Salvador: 4.6% of population, 0.43% per yearSerbia: 1.1% of population, -0.568% per yearSao Tome and Principe: 13% of population, 1.98% per yearSuriname: 2.2% of population, 0.851% per yearSlovak Republic: 0.5% of population, -0.152% per yearSlovenia: 0% of population, 0.168% per yearSweden: 0.8% of population, 0.254% per yearEswatini: 44.5% of population, 1.07% per yearSeychelles: 0.7% of population, 1.13% per yearSyrian Arab Republic: 18% of population, 3.77% per yearChad: 39.5% of population, 3.41% per yearTogo: 34.7% of population, 2.18% per yearThailand: 0% of population, -0.0672% per yearTajikistan: 6.1% of population, 1.83% per yearTimor-Leste: 44% of population, 1.27% per yearTonga: 0.4% of population, -0.417% per yearTunisia: 0.7% of population, 0.58% per yearTurkiye: 0.2% of population, 0.42% per yearTuvalu: 9% of population, -1.61% per yearTanzania: 51.3% of population, 2.86% per yearUganda: 59.8% of population, 2.7% per yearUkraine: 0% of population, 2.92% per yearUruguay: 0.2% of population, -0.0561% per yearUnited States: 1.1% of population, 0.522% per yearUzbekistan: 2.3% of population, 1.88% per yearViet Nam: 1.6% of population, 0.603% per yearVanuatu: 19.5% of population, 2.23% per yearSamoa: 4.5% of population, 0.589% per yearKosovo: 10% of population, -1.1% per yearSouth Africa: 17.4% of population, 1.15% per yearZambia: 71.7% of population, 2.77% per yearZimbabwe: 49.2% of population, 1.88% per yearALBAREBDICAFCODGEOMDAMHLMOZQATTUV

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted+0.5625.8e-15163
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted+0.5682.5e-15163
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income+0.3514.6e-6163
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income+0.2450.002163

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 163 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.211 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from +0.335 (without MHL) to +0.365 (without SYR). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: MHL (-0.016).

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific23+0.36
Europe & Central Asia47+0.02
Latin America & Caribbean24+0.06
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan16+0.31
Sub-Saharan Africa45+0.14

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third55+0.29
Middle third54+0.22
Richest third54+0.28

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians103+0.40
Muslims40+0.30

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France24-0.00
Never a European colony16+0.23
Spain20+0.02
United Kingdom48+0.51

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = +0.314 after dropping 14 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

Loading…

Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 36years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

Within countries over time, there is no link that is clearly more than chance (r = +0.045, comparing each country only with itself over the years, and each year only with the same year elsewhere). Whatever the cross-country picture shows, countries whose extreme poverty rate moved did not tend to see their population growth move with it.

Across countries (adjusted)+0.351for comparison
Within countries+0.111each country vs itself
…and vs the same year elsewhere+0.045q = 0.575 · 120 countries
Year-on-year changes+0.038q = 0.596

2,111 country-years (one country in one year), 120 countries, 1990–2025, about 18 years each on average. Share of the variation that happens within countries over time: 21% for Extreme poverty rate, 17% for Population growth. The margins of error allow for each country appearing many times, and for each year’s value being close to the year before.

Year-to-year changes are a cautious test, not a final answer. Looking only at changes from one year to the next removes each country’s own trends. But it also makes measurement mistakes louder, which pulls the results toward zero. A near-zero result here is weak evidence of no link, not proof.

With one measure years behind the other

0.10−0.1-100+10years Population growth trails Extreme poverty rate →lag -10: r = 0.014 (n = 1,686)lag -9: r = 0.059 (n = 1,736)lag -8: r = 0.032 (n = 1,795)lag -7: r = 0.026 (n = 1,838)lag -6: r = -0.027 (n = 1,892)lag -5: r = -0.032 (n = 1,936)lag -4: r = 0.018 (n = 1,969)lag -3: r = 0.027 (n = 2,011)lag -2: r = -0.002 (n = 2,053)lag -1: r = 0.019 (n = 2,084)lag +0: r = 0.045 (n = 2,111)lag +1: r = 0.040 (n = 2,107)lag +2: r = 0.030 (n = 2,083)lag +3: r = 0.023 (n = 2,024)lag +4: r = 0.035 (n = 1,944)lag +5: r = 0.035 (n = 1,849)lag +6: r = 0.035 (n = 1,773)lag +7: r = 0.059 (n = 1,693)lag +8: r = 0.068 (n = 1,596)lag +9: r = 0.079 (n = 1,527)lag +10: r = 0.094 (n = 1,442)

Same year (lag 0): +0.045. A peak away from zero does not show which comes first. These series change slowly — this year’s value is close to last year’s. That makes the curve smooth and nearly symmetric, whatever produced the data. Even a sharp peak at one lag (a gap of some years) would not prove that one measure changes the other.

This curve peaks at the edge of the window (lag +10), so it is still drifting where the search stops. That pattern usually reflects a slow trend left over in the data, not a link with real timing. The peak value should not be read as the “true” link at the right lag.

The data


% of population
% per year		Years
Congo, Dem. Rep. COD85.3%3.2%2020, 2025
Mozambique MOZ81.4%2.85%2022, 2025
Malawi MWI75.4%2.56%2019, 2025
Burundi BDI74.2%2.41%2020, 2025
Zambia ZMB71.7%2.77%2022, 2025
Central African Republic CAF71.6%3.37%2021, 2025
Madagascar MDG69.2%2.4%2021, 2025
Niger NER60.5%3.22%2021, 2025
Uganda UGA59.8%2.7%2019, 2025
Tanzania TZA51.3%2.86%2018, 2025
Zimbabwe ZWE49.2%1.88%2019, 2025
Kenya KEN45.5%1.93%2022, 2025
Eswatini SWZ44.5%1.07%2016, 2025
Timor-Leste TLS44%1.27%2014, 2025
Burkina Faso BFA42.1%2.21%2021, 2025

World Bank, World Development Indicators
World Bank, World Development Indicators

Sources

Extreme poverty rate

Poverty headcount ratio at $3.00 a day (2021 PPP) (% of population)

World Bank · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

Population growth

Population growth (annual %)

World Bank · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2010–2025. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Extreme poverty rate and Population growth

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Extreme poverty rate changes Population growth, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Extreme poverty rate or Population growth