placestats

Expected schooling vs. Population growth

Fades after adjusting for income

Across 187 countries, Expected schooling and Population growth rise and fall together at r = -0.51 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). Comparing only countries with similar income (GDP per person) shrinks it to -0.29, which could easily be chance (q = 0.12, allowing for the many pairs tested, and allowing for countries in the same region being alike). So the first figure mostly shows richer countries differing from poorer ones, not a link between these two things.

Comparing countries across the middle half of expected schooling, 11.5 to 15.9 years, population growth is 0.927% per year lower at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 0.748% per year.

Link before adjusting (r)-0.514p = 5.2e-14 · 187 countries
After adjusting for national income-0.288p = 6.5e-5 · likely range [-0.42, -0.15]
p, allowing for regions0.024standard error 0.097 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.120across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Expected schooling · yearslink with income +0.81 · proxy
Population growth · % per yearlink with income -0.50 · moderate

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Expected schooling · years →Population growth · % per year →6.2120.8-3.43%4.68%Afghanistan: 10.8 years, 2.77% per yearAngola: 12.2 years, 3% per yearAlbania: 14.5 years, -1.17% per yearAndorra: 14.5 years, 1.17% per yearUnited Arab Emirates: 15.6 years, 4.68% per yearArgentina: 18.8 years, 0.339% per yearArmenia: 14.4 years, 1.74% per yearAntigua and Barbuda: 15.5 years, 0.465% per yearAustralia: 20.7 years, 1.53% per yearAustria: 16.3 years, 0.328% per yearAzerbaijan: 12.9 years, 0.432% per yearBurundi: 9.83 years, 2.41% per yearBelgium: 19 years, 0.699% per yearBenin: 10.4 years, 2.4% per yearBurkina Faso: 8.73 years, 2.21% per yearBangladesh: 12.3 years, 1.22% per yearBulgaria: 15.3 years, -0.126% per yearBahrain: 15.9 years, 0.734% per yearBahamas, The: 11.9 years, 0.435% per yearBosnia and Herzegovina: 13.2 years, -0.766% per yearBelarus: 13.7 years, -0.512% per yearBelize: 12 years, 1.39% per yearBolivia: 15.6 years, 1.35% per yearBrazil: 15.8 years, 0.383% per yearBarbados: 16.6 years, 0.0552% per yearBrunei Darussalam: 13.7 years, 0.777% per yearBhutan: 13.2 years, 0.65% per yearBotswana: 11.4 years, 1.61% per yearCentral African Republic: 7.44 years, 3.37% per yearCanada: 15.9 years, 0.939% per yearSwitzerland: 16.7 years, 0.96% per yearChile: 16.9 years, 0.48% per yearChina: 15.5 years, -0.17% per yearCote d'Ivoire: 11.4 years, 2.4% per yearCameroon: 10.8 years, 2.56% per yearCongo, Dem. Rep.: 10.9 years, 3.2% per yearCongo, Rep.: 12.7 years, 2.36% per yearColombia: 14.3 years, 1.01% per yearComoros: 13.3 years, 1.85% per yearCabo Verde: 11.4 years, 0.466% per yearCosta Rica: 16.3 years, 0.448% per yearCyprus: 16.2 years, 0.914% per yearCzechia: 16.8 years, -0.167% per yearGermany: 17.3 years, -0.0304% per yearDjibouti: 6.21 years, 1.31% per yearDominica: 14.2 years, -0.506% per yearDenmark: 18.7 years, 0.537% per yearDominican Republic: 13.6 years, 0.81% per yearAlgeria: 15.5 years, 1.32% per yearEcuador: 14.9 years, 0.848% per yearEgypt, Arab Rep.: 13.1 years, 1.56% per yearSpain: 17.8 years, 1.03% per yearEstonia: 16 years, -0.428% per yearEthiopia: 9.22 years, 2.55% per yearFinland: 19.5 years, 0.471% per yearFiji: 13.8 years, 0.469% per yearFrance: 16.1 years, 0.246% per yearMicronesia, Fed. Sts.: 11.5 years, 0.461% per yearGabon: 12.5 years, 2.11% per yearUnited Kingdom: 17.8 years, 0.297% per yearGeorgia: 16.8 years, 3.18% per yearGhana: 11.4 years, 1.83% per yearGuinea: 10.4 years, 2.31% per yearGambia, The: 8.98 years, 2.23% per yearGuinea-Bissau: 10.6 years, 2.16% per yearEquatorial Guinea: 12.5 years, 2.4% per yearGreece: 20.8 years, 0.0848% per yearGrenada: 16.6 years, 0.0819% per yearGuatemala: 10.7 years, 1.52% per yearGuyana: 13 years, 0.588% per yearHong Kong SAR, China: 16.9 years, -0.335% per yearHonduras: 10.2 years, 1.65% per yearCroatia: 16.3 years, 0.258% per yearHaiti: 10.9 years, 1.13% per yearHungary: 15.5 years, -0.501% per yearIndonesia: 13.3 years, 0.785% per yearIndia: 13 years, 0.887% per yearIreland: 19.2 years, 1.63% per yearIran, Islamic Rep.: 14 years, 0.924% per yearIraq: 12.4 years, 2.1% per yearIceland: 18.9 years, 1.51% per yearIsrael: 14.9 years, 1.2% per yearItaly: 16.7 years, -0.0629% per yearJamaica: 12.4 years, -0.0739% per yearJordan: 13.1 years, -0.279% per yearJapan: 15.5 years, -0.492% per yearKazakhstan: 14 years, 1.21% per yearKenya: 11.5 years, 1.93% per yearKyrgyz Republic: 12.7 years, 1.66% per yearCambodia: 11.2 years, 1.18% per yearKiribati: 11.9 years, 1.45% per yearSt. Kitts and Nevis: 18.4 years, 0.169% per yearKorea, Rep.: 16.6 years, -0.129% per yearKuwait: 15.9 years, -0.655% per yearLao PDR: 9.61 years, 1.32% per yearLebanon: 11.7 years, 0.746% per yearLiberia: 10.5 years, 2.09% per yearLibya: 12.9 years, 1.04% per yearSt. Lucia: 12.7 years, 0.225% per yearSri Lanka: 13.1 years, -0.733% per yearLesotho: 11 years, 1.1% per yearLithuania: 16.5 years, 0.0172% per yearLuxembourg: 14.4 years, 1.46% per yearLatvia: 16.5 years, -0.988% per yearMorocco: 15.1 years, 0.914% per yearMoldova: 14.6 years, -1.75% per yearMadagascar: 9.06 years, 2.4% per yearMaldives: 12.8 years, 0.355% per yearMexico: 14.5 years, 0.826% per yearMarshall Islands: 16.4 years, -3.43% per yearNorth Macedonia: 14.8 years, -0.189% per yearMali: 7.01 years, 2.9% per yearMalta: 15.9 years, 1.89% per yearMyanmar: 11.5 years, 0.641% per yearMontenegro: 15.5 years, -0.0635% per yearMongolia: 13.6 years, 1.25% per yearMozambique: 10.8 years, 2.85% per yearMauritania: 7.95 years, 2.78% per yearMauritius: 14.2 years, -0.164% per yearMalawi: 9.9 years, 2.56% per yearMalaysia: 12.7 years, 1.17% per yearNamibia: 11.8 years, 2.05% per yearNiger: 8.31 years, 3.22% per yearNigeria: 10.5 years, 2.06% per yearNicaragua: 11.5 years, 1.31% per yearNetherlands: 18.6 years, 0.522% per yearNorway: 18.8 years, 0.69% per yearNepal: 13.8 years, -0.111% per yearNaoero: 12.8 years, 0.651% per yearNew Zealand: 19.3 years, 0.654% per yearOman: 13.4 years, 3.96% per yearPakistan: 7.9 years, 1.56% per yearPanama: 13.3 years, 1.22% per yearPeru: 14.9 years, 1.04% per yearPhilippines: 12.8 years, 0.811% per yearPalau: 14.1 years, -0.181% per yearPapua New Guinea: 11.5 years, 1.75% per yearPoland: 16.7 years, -0.338% per yearPortugal: 17.5 years, 1.03% per yearParaguay: 14 years, 1.2% per yearWest Bank and Gaza: 13 years, 2.33% per yearQatar: 13.1 years, 3.92% per yearRomania: 14.1 years, -0.166% per yearRussian Federation: 13.2 years, -0.109% per yearRwanda: 12.6 years, 2.17% per yearSaudi Arabia: 16.9 years, 4.63% per yearSudan: 8.62 years, 2.38% per yearSenegal: 9.14 years, 2.3% per yearSingapore: 16.7 years, 1.22% per yearSolomon Islands: 11.3 years, 2.35% per yearSierra Leone: 9.06 years, 2.04% per yearEl Salvador: 11.1 years, 0.43% per yearSan Marino: 14.6 years, 0.388% per yearSomalia, Fed. Rep.: 7.49 years, 3.34% per yearSerbia: 15 years, -0.568% per yearSao Tome and Principe: 12.9 years, 1.98% per yearSuriname: 11 years, 0.851% per yearSlovak Republic: 14.9 years, -0.152% per yearSlovenia: 17.5 years, 0.168% per yearSweden: 19 years, 0.254% per yearEswatini: 15.2 years, 1.07% per yearSeychelles: 18.2 years, 1.13% per yearSyrian Arab Republic: 7.42 years, 3.77% per yearChad: 8.35 years, 3.41% per yearTogo: 13.1 years, 2.18% per yearThailand: 15.4 years, -0.0672% per yearTajikistan: 10.8 years, 1.83% per yearTurkmenistan: 13.2 years, 1.65% per yearTimor-Leste: 13.3 years, 1.27% per yearTonga: 17.8 years, -0.417% per yearTrinidad and Tobago: 14.2 years, -0.0416% per yearTunisia: 14.7 years, 0.58% per yearTurkiye: 19.8 years, 0.42% per yearTuvalu: 12.4 years, -1.61% per yearTanzania: 8.59 years, 2.86% per yearUganda: 11.6 years, 2.7% per yearUkraine: 13.3 years, 2.92% per yearUruguay: 17.5 years, -0.0561% per yearUnited States: 15.9 years, 0.522% per yearUzbekistan: 12.5 years, 1.88% per yearSt. Vincent and the Grenadines: 16.3 years, -0.69% per yearViet Nam: 15.5 years, 0.603% per yearVanuatu: 11.8 years, 2.23% per yearSamoa: 12.4 years, 0.589% per yearSouth Africa: 13.8 years, 1.15% per yearZambia: 11 years, 2.77% per yearZimbabwe: 11.1 years, 1.88% per yearARECAFDJIGEOGRCMDAMHLSAUSOMSYRTUV

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted-0.5145.2e-14187
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted-0.5832.1e-18187
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income-0.2886.5e-5187
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income-0.3285.0e-6187

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 187 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.226 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from -0.306 (without GEO) to -0.252 (without MHL). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: MHL (+0.036).

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific30-0.34
Europe & Central Asia50+0.01
Latin America & Caribbean31-0.39
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan22-0.25
Sub-Saharan Africa46-0.36

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third63-0.53
Middle third62-0.11
Richest third62-0.16

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians108-0.13
Muslims49-0.27

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France25-0.39
Never a European colony21-0.21
Spain20-0.47
United Kingdom63-0.35

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = -0.269 after dropping 3 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 34years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

Within countries over time, there is no link that is clearly more than chance (r = +0.013, comparing each country only with itself over the years, and each year only with the same year elsewhere). Whatever the cross-country picture shows, countries whose expected schooling moved did not tend to see their population growth move with it.

Across countries (adjusted)-0.288for comparison
Within countries-0.105each country vs itself
…and vs the same year elsewhere+0.013q = 0.772 · 194 countries
Year-on-year changes+0.018q = 0.706

6,305 country-years (one country in one year), 194 countries, 1990–2023, about 33 years each on average. Share of the variation that happens within countries over time: 20% for Expected schooling, 49% for Population growth. The margins of error allow for each country appearing many times, and for each year’s value being close to the year before.

Year-to-year changes are a cautious test, not a final answer. Looking only at changes from one year to the next removes each country’s own trends. But it also makes measurement mistakes louder, which pulls the results toward zero. A near-zero result here is weak evidence of no link, not proof.

With one measure years behind the other

0.10−0.1-100+10years Population growth trails Expected schooling →lag -10: r = 0.007 (n = 4,590)lag -9: r = 0.006 (n = 4,764)lag -8: r = 0.014 (n = 4,937)lag -7: r = 0.016 (n = 5,110)lag -6: r = 0.014 (n = 5,283)lag -5: r = 0.019 (n = 5,456)lag -4: r = 0.027 (n = 5,626)lag -3: r = 0.036 (n = 5,796)lag -2: r = 0.031 (n = 5,966)lag -1: r = 0.021 (n = 6,135)lag +0: r = 0.013 (n = 6,305)lag +1: r = -0.017 (n = 6,306)lag +2: r = -0.033 (n = 6,307)lag +3: r = -0.033 (n = 6,113)lag +4: r = -0.028 (n = 5,919)lag +5: r = -0.022 (n = 5,725)lag +6: r = -0.012 (n = 5,531)lag +7: r = -0.004 (n = 5,337)lag +8: r = 0.001 (n = 5,143)lag +9: r = 0.009 (n = 4,949)lag +10: r = 0.026 (n = 4,755)

Same year (lag 0): +0.013. A peak away from zero does not show which comes first. These series change slowly — this year’s value is close to last year’s. That makes the curve smooth and nearly symmetric, whatever produced the data. Even a sharp peak at one lag (a gap of some years) would not prove that one measure changes the other.

The data


years
% per year		Years
Greece GRC20.80.0848%2023, 2025
Australia AUS20.71.53%2023, 2025
Turkiye TUR19.80.42%2023, 2025
Finland FIN19.50.471%2023, 2025
New Zealand NZL19.30.654%2023, 2025
Ireland IRL19.21.63%2023, 2025
Belgium BEL190.699%2023, 2025
Sweden SWE190.254%2023, 2025
Iceland ISL18.91.51%2023, 2025
Argentina ARG18.80.339%2023, 2025
Norway NOR18.80.69%2023, 2025
Denmark DNK18.70.537%2023, 2025
Netherlands NLD18.60.522%2023, 2025
St. Kitts and Nevis KNA18.40.169%2023, 2025
Seychelles SYC18.21.13%2023, 2025

United Nations Development Programme, Human Development Report 2025
World Bank, World Development Indicators

Sources

Expected schooling

Expected years of schooling

United Nations Development Programme, Human Development Report Office · via Our World in Data · CC BY 3.0 IGO · updated annual

The years a child starting school today can expect to spend in it, if current enrolment rates hold. It is a forecast built from the same UNESCO enrolment figures the site already has, so it moves with them.

Population growth

Population growth (annual %)

World Bank · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2023–2025. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Expected schooling and Population growth

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Expected schooling changes Population growth, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Expected schooling or Population growth