placestats

Child stunting vs. Population growth

Holds up after adjusting for income

Across 156 countries, Child stunting and Population growth rise and fall together at r = +0.52 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). Comparing only countries with similar income (GDP per person) shrinks it to +0.27 (q = 0.036, allowing for the many pairs tested). Much of the first figure is that both measures rise with national income, but a weak positive link remains.

Comparing countries across the middle half of population growth, 0.431% to 2.12% per year, child stunting is worse by 8.77% of children under 5 at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 3.27% of children under 5.

Link before adjusting (r)+0.519p = 4.1e-12 · 156 countries
After adjusting for national income+0.265p = 0.001 · likely range [+0.11, +0.41]
p, allowing for regions0.013standard error 0.076 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.036across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Child stunting · % of children under 5link with income -0.80 · proxy
Population growth · % per yearlink with income -0.50 · moderate

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Child stunting · % of children under 5 →Population growth · % per year →1%55.3%-3.43%4.63%Afghanistan: 42% of children under 5, 2.77% per yearAngola: 47.7% of children under 5, 3% per yearAlbania: 7.4% of children under 5, -1.17% per yearArgentina: 10.7% of children under 5, 0.339% per yearArmenia: 6.2% of children under 5, 1.74% per yearAustralia: 3.1% of children under 5, 1.53% per yearAzerbaijan: 6.8% of children under 5, 0.432% per yearBurundi: 55.3% of children under 5, 2.41% per yearBelgium: 2.6% of children under 5, 0.699% per yearBenin: 33.2% of children under 5, 2.4% per yearBurkina Faso: 19.5% of children under 5, 2.21% per yearBangladesh: 25.1% of children under 5, 1.22% per yearBulgaria: 5.5% of children under 5, -0.126% per yearBahrain: 4.6% of children under 5, 0.734% per yearBosnia and Herzegovina: 7.9% of children under 5, -0.766% per yearBelarus: 1.1% of children under 5, -0.512% per yearBelize: 11.7% of children under 5, 1.39% per yearBolivia: 10.7% of children under 5, 1.35% per yearBrazil: 8.9% of children under 5, 0.383% per yearBarbados: 5.8% of children under 5, 0.0552% per yearBrunei Darussalam: 9.9% of children under 5, 0.777% per yearBhutan: 17.9% of children under 5, 0.65% per yearBotswana: 21% of children under 5, 1.61% per yearCentral African Republic: 38.9% of children under 5, 3.37% per yearChile: 1.7% of children under 5, 0.48% per yearChina: 4.5% of children under 5, -0.17% per yearCote d'Ivoire: 20.3% of children under 5, 2.4% per yearCameroon: 27.2% of children under 5, 2.56% per yearCongo, Dem. Rep.: 44.1% of children under 5, 3.2% per yearCongo, Rep.: 16.3% of children under 5, 2.36% per yearColombia: 11.6% of children under 5, 1.01% per yearComoros: 17.4% of children under 5, 1.85% per yearCabo Verde: 5.3% of children under 5, 0.466% per yearCosta Rica: 10.6% of children under 5, 0.448% per yearCzechia: 2.4% of children under 5, -0.167% per yearGermany: 2.2% of children under 5, -0.0304% per yearDjibouti: 20.9% of children under 5, 1.31% per yearDominican Republic: 5.6% of children under 5, 0.81% per yearAlgeria: 8.9% of children under 5, 1.32% per yearEcuador: 17.7% of children under 5, 0.848% per yearEgypt, Arab Rep.: 12.9% of children under 5, 1.56% per yearEstonia: 1.3% of children under 5, -0.428% per yearEthiopia: 35.5% of children under 5, 2.55% per yearFinland: 1.7% of children under 5, 0.471% per yearFiji: 7.2% of children under 5, 0.469% per yearGabon: 13.7% of children under 5, 2.11% per yearUnited Kingdom: 3.5% of children under 5, 0.297% per yearGeorgia: 4.7% of children under 5, 3.18% per yearGhana: 15.6% of children under 5, 1.83% per yearGuinea: 26.6% of children under 5, 2.31% per yearGambia, The: 14% of children under 5, 2.23% per yearGuinea-Bissau: 28.3% of children under 5, 2.16% per yearEquatorial Guinea: 17.1% of children under 5, 2.4% per yearGreece: 2% of children under 5, 0.0848% per yearGuatemala: 44.6% of children under 5, 1.52% per yearGuyana: 7.1% of children under 5, 0.588% per yearHonduras: 17.9% of children under 5, 1.65% per yearHaiti: 21.6% of children under 5, 1.13% per yearIndonesia: 22.6% of children under 5, 0.785% per yearIndia: 32.9% of children under 5, 0.887% per yearIreland: 2.2% of children under 5, 1.63% per yearIran, Islamic Rep.: 4.8% of children under 5, 0.924% per yearIraq: 9.4% of children under 5, 2.1% per yearJamaica: 6.9% of children under 5, -0.0739% per yearJordan: 7.7% of children under 5, -0.279% per yearJapan: 5.2% of children under 5, -0.492% per yearKazakhstan: 4.4% of children under 5, 1.21% per yearKenya: 17.9% of children under 5, 1.93% per yearKyrgyz Republic: 11% of children under 5, 1.66% per yearCambodia: 22% of children under 5, 1.18% per yearKiribati: 14.7% of children under 5, 1.45% per yearKorea, Rep.: 1.8% of children under 5, -0.129% per yearKuwait: 4.5% of children under 5, -0.655% per yearLao PDR: 29.9% of children under 5, 1.32% per yearLebanon: 10.1% of children under 5, 0.746% per yearLiberia: 26.9% of children under 5, 2.09% per yearLibya: 9.2% of children under 5, 1.04% per yearSt. Lucia: 2.8% of children under 5, 0.225% per yearSri Lanka: 10.1% of children under 5, -0.733% per yearLesotho: 35% of children under 5, 1.1% per yearLithuania: 1.6% of children under 5, 0.0172% per yearLatvia: 1.7% of children under 5, -0.988% per yearMorocco: 13.7% of children under 5, 0.914% per yearMoldova: 4.2% of children under 5, -1.75% per yearMadagascar: 38.4% of children under 5, 2.4% per yearMaldives: 14.2% of children under 5, 0.355% per yearMexico: 13.1% of children under 5, 0.826% per yearMarshall Islands: 30% of children under 5, -3.43% per yearNorth Macedonia: 3.8% of children under 5, -0.189% per yearMali: 23.2% of children under 5, 2.9% per yearMalta: 3.5% of children under 5, 1.89% per yearMyanmar: 24.5% of children under 5, 0.641% per yearMontenegro: 8% of children under 5, -0.0635% per yearMongolia: 7.1% of children under 5, 1.25% per yearMozambique: 37% of children under 5, 2.85% per yearMauritania: 21.5% of children under 5, 2.78% per yearMauritius: 7.8% of children under 5, -0.164% per yearMalawi: 33.2% of children under 5, 2.56% per yearMalaysia: 24.3% of children under 5, 1.17% per yearNamibia: 16.4% of children under 5, 2.05% per yearNiger: 48.3% of children under 5, 3.22% per yearNigeria: 33.8% of children under 5, 2.06% per yearNetherlands: 1.6% of children under 5, 0.522% per yearNepal: 26% of children under 5, -0.111% per yearNaoero: 16% of children under 5, 0.651% per yearOman: 12.9% of children under 5, 3.96% per yearPakistan: 33.6% of children under 5, 1.56% per yearPanama: 14% of children under 5, 1.22% per yearPeru: 10.6% of children under 5, 1.04% per yearPhilippines: 27.7% of children under 5, 0.811% per yearPapua New Guinea: 47.6% of children under 5, 1.75% per yearPoland: 1% of children under 5, -0.338% per yearPortugal: 3.2% of children under 5, 1.03% per yearParaguay: 3.2% of children under 5, 1.2% per yearWest Bank and Gaza: 8% of children under 5, 2.33% per yearQatar: 5.4% of children under 5, 3.92% per yearRomania: 7% of children under 5, -0.166% per yearRwanda: 29.8% of children under 5, 2.17% per yearSaudi Arabia: 11.1% of children under 5, 4.63% per yearSudan: 35.4% of children under 5, 2.38% per yearSenegal: 17.2% of children under 5, 2.3% per yearSingapore: 2.8% of children under 5, 1.22% per yearSolomon Islands: 29.8% of children under 5, 2.35% per yearSierra Leone: 25.2% of children under 5, 2.04% per yearEl Salvador: 9.4% of children under 5, 0.43% per yearSomalia, Fed. Rep.: 23.9% of children under 5, 3.34% per yearSerbia: 4.6% of children under 5, -0.568% per yearSao Tome and Principe: 10% of children under 5, 1.98% per yearSuriname: 8% of children under 5, 0.851% per yearEswatini: 18.9% of children under 5, 1.07% per yearSeychelles: 6.2% of children under 5, 1.13% per yearSyrian Arab Republic: 23.5% of children under 5, 3.77% per yearTurks and Caicos Islands: 3.2% of children under 5, 0.685% per yearChad: 31.5% of children under 5, 3.41% per yearTogo: 23% of children under 5, 2.18% per yearThailand: 12.3% of children under 5, -0.0672% per yearTajikistan: 13.1% of children under 5, 1.83% per yearTurkmenistan: 6.5% of children under 5, 1.65% per yearTimor-Leste: 45.4% of children under 5, 1.27% per yearTonga: 1.6% of children under 5, -0.417% per yearTrinidad and Tobago: 7.8% of children under 5, -0.0416% per yearTunisia: 8.9% of children under 5, 0.58% per yearTurkiye: 5.5% of children under 5, 0.42% per yearTuvalu: 5.3% of children under 5, -1.61% per yearTanzania: 29.9% of children under 5, 2.86% per yearUganda: 23.5% of children under 5, 2.7% per yearUkraine: 11.7% of children under 5, 2.92% per yearUruguay: 6.5% of children under 5, -0.0561% per yearUnited States: 4.2% of children under 5, 0.522% per yearUzbekistan: 6.7% of children under 5, 1.88% per yearViet Nam: 19.2% of children under 5, 0.603% per yearVanuatu: 31% of children under 5, 2.23% per yearSamoa: 8.4% of children under 5, 0.589% per yearSouth Africa: 24.4% of children under 5, 1.15% per yearZambia: 32.3% of children under 5, 2.77% per yearZimbabwe: 23.7% of children under 5, 1.88% per yearAGOBDIGEOLVAMDAMHLNERQATSAUTLSTUV

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted+0.5194.1e-12156
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted+0.6233.9e-18156
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income+0.2650.001156
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income+0.3263.5e-5156

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 156 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.253 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from +0.234 (without TUV) to +0.326 (without MHL). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: MHL (+0.061).

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific26+0.28
Europe & Central Asia32+0.36
Latin America & Caribbean25+0.43
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan20+0.48
Sub-Saharan Africa46+0.28

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third52+0.11
Middle third52+0.25
Richest third52+0.39

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians86+0.37
Muslims48+0.29

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France25+0.23
Never a European colony21+0.33
Spain18+0.24
United Kingdom52+0.40

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = +0.335 after dropping 2 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 25years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

Within countries over time, there is no link that is clearly more than chance (r = -0.038, comparing each country only with itself over the years, and each year only with the same year elsewhere). Whatever the cross-country picture shows, countries whose child stunting moved did not tend to see their population growth move with it.

Across countries (adjusted)+0.265for comparison
Within countries+0.092each country vs itself
…and vs the same year elsewhere-0.038q = 0.259 · 162 countries
Year-on-year changes-0.013q = 0.464
Read with care.
  • Almost all of the second indicator's variation is between countries, so the within-country estimate rests on a small part of the data.

4,049 country-years (one country in one year), 162 countries, 2000–2024, about 25 years each on average. Share of the variation that happens within countries over time: 38% for Child stunting, 9% for Population growth. The margins of error allow for each country appearing many times, and for each year’s value being close to the year before.

Year-to-year changes are a cautious test, not a final answer. Looking only at changes from one year to the next removes each country’s own trends. But it also makes measurement mistakes louder, which pulls the results toward zero. A near-zero result here is weak evidence of no link, not proof.

With one measure years behind the other

0.10−0.1-100+10years Population growth trails Child stunting →lag -10: r = 0.044 (n = 4,049)lag -9: r = 0.039 (n = 4,050)lag -8: r = 0.026 (n = 4,050)lag -7: r = 0.016 (n = 4,050)lag -6: r = 0.006 (n = 4,050)lag -5: r = -0.002 (n = 4,050)lag -4: r = -0.009 (n = 4,050)lag -3: r = -0.030 (n = 4,050)lag -2: r = -0.039 (n = 4,049)lag -1: r = -0.037 (n = 4,049)lag +0: r = -0.038 (n = 4,049)lag +1: r = -0.041 (n = 4,049)lag +2: r = -0.038 (n = 3,887)lag +3: r = -0.035 (n = 3,725)lag +4: r = -0.031 (n = 3,563)lag +5: r = -0.026 (n = 3,401)lag +6: r = -0.026 (n = 3,239)lag +7: r = -0.017 (n = 3,077)lag +8: r = -0.003 (n = 2,915)lag +9: r = 0.013 (n = 2,753)lag +10: r = 0.024 (n = 2,591)

Same year (lag 0): -0.038. A peak away from zero does not show which comes first. These series change slowly — this year’s value is close to last year’s. That makes the curve smooth and nearly symmetric, whatever produced the data. Even a sharp peak at one lag (a gap of some years) would not prove that one measure changes the other.

This curve peaks at the edge of the window (lag -10), so it is still drifting where the search stops. That pattern usually reflects a slow trend left over in the data, not a link with real timing. The peak value should not be read as the “true” link at the right lag.

The data


% of children under 5
% per year		Years
Burundi BDI55.3%2.41%2024, 2025
Niger NER48.3%3.22%2024, 2025
Angola AGO47.7%3%2024, 2025
Papua New Guinea PNG47.6%1.75%2024, 2025
Timor-Leste TLS45.4%1.27%2024, 2025
Guatemala GTM44.6%1.52%2024, 2025
Congo, Dem. Rep. COD44.1%3.2%2024, 2025
Afghanistan AFG42%2.77%2024, 2025
Central African Republic CAF38.9%3.37%2024, 2025
Madagascar MDG38.4%2.4%2024, 2025
Mozambique MOZ37%2.85%2024, 2025
Ethiopia ETH35.5%2.55%2024, 2025
Sudan SDN35.4%2.38%2024, 2025
Lesotho LSO35%1.1%2024, 2025
Nigeria NGA33.8%2.06%2024, 2025

World Bank, World Development Indicators
World Bank, World Development Indicators

Sources

Child stunting

Prevalence of stunting, height for age, modelled estimate (% of children under 5)

UNICEF, WHO and World Bank Joint Child Malnutrition Estimates · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

An estimate from a statistical model. The agencies fit a model to household surveys and predict every country and year. So this is smoother than the surveys behind it, and it has values for years nobody measured. The survey-only series never reaches sixty countries in any year.

Population growth

Population growth (annual %)

World Bank · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2024–2025. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Child stunting and Population growth

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Child stunting changes Population growth, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Child stunting or Population growth