placestats

Population growth vs. Tobacco use

Holds up after adjusting for income

Across 164 countries, Population growth and Tobacco use rise and fall together at r = -0.46 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). It holds up almost unchanged when only countries with similar income (GDP per person) are compared (r = -0.43, q = 0.030, allowing for the many pairs tested).

Comparing countries across the middle half of population growth, 0.32% to 1.89% per year, tobacco use is better by 5.99% of adults at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 5.96% of adults.

Link before adjusting (r)-0.459p = 6.2e-10 · 164 countries
After adjusting for national income-0.426p = 1.4e-8 · likely range [-0.54, -0.29]
p, allowing for regions0.002standard error 0.081 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.030across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Population growth · % per yearlink with income -0.50 · moderate
Tobacco use · % of adultslink with income +0.24 · independent

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Population growth · % per year →Tobacco use · % of adults →-3.43%4.68%3.1%48.8%Afghanistan: 2.77% per year, 22.1% of adultsAlbania: -1.17% per year, 21.4% of adultsAndorra: 1.17% per year, 35.5% of adultsUnited Arab Emirates: 4.68% per year, 9% of adultsArgentina: 0.339% per year, 23.5% of adultsArmenia: 1.74% per year, 26.2% of adultsAustralia: 1.53% per year, 11.6% of adultsAustria: 0.328% per year, 23.8% of adultsAzerbaijan: 0.432% per year, 18.7% of adultsBurundi: 2.41% per year, 10.1% of adultsBelgium: 0.699% per year, 23.5% of adultsBenin: 2.4% per year, 7.4% of adultsBurkina Faso: 2.21% per year, 11.6% of adultsBangladesh: 1.22% per year, 32% of adultsBulgaria: -0.126% per year, 38.7% of adultsBahrain: 0.734% per year, 15.4% of adultsBahamas, The: 0.435% per year, 17.3% of adultsBosnia and Herzegovina: -0.766% per year, 37.1% of adultsBelarus: -0.512% per year, 29.2% of adultsBelize: 1.39% per year, 8.5% of adultsBolivia: 1.35% per year, 12.3% of adultsBrazil: 0.383% per year, 11.9% of adultsBrunei Darussalam: 0.777% per year, 14.5% of adultsBhutan: 0.65% per year, 19.6% of adultsBotswana: 1.61% per year, 18% of adultsCanada: 0.939% per year, 11.2% of adultsSwitzerland: 0.96% per year, 23.1% of adultsChile: 0.48% per year, 26.7% of adultsChina: -0.17% per year, 22.8% of adultsCote d'Ivoire: 2.4% per year, 7.3% of adultsCameroon: 2.56% per year, 5.7% of adultsCongo, Dem. Rep.: 3.2% per year, 12.3% of adultsCongo, Rep.: 2.36% per year, 16.2% of adultsColombia: 1.01% per year, 8% of adultsComoros: 1.85% per year, 8.9% of adultsCabo Verde: 0.466% per year, 10.4% of adultsCosta Rica: 0.448% per year, 7.9% of adultsCyprus: 0.914% per year, 32.5% of adultsCzechia: -0.167% per year, 28.4% of adultsGermany: -0.0304% per year, 22% of adultsDenmark: 0.537% per year, 15.7% of adultsAlgeria: 1.32% per year, 22.4% of adultsEcuador: 0.848% per year, 10.1% of adultsEgypt, Arab Rep.: 1.56% per year, 25% of adultsSpain: 1.03% per year, 27.6% of adultsEstonia: -0.428% per year, 26.1% of adultsEthiopia: 2.55% per year, 5.2% of adultsFinland: 0.471% per year, 21.4% of adultsFiji: 0.469% per year, 25.8% of adultsFrance: 0.246% per year, 33.6% of adultsGabon: 2.11% per year, 13.3% of adultsUnited Kingdom: 0.297% per year, 12.8% of adultsGeorgia: 3.18% per year, 33% of adultsGhana: 1.83% per year, 3.3% of adultsGambia, The: 2.23% per year, 11.1% of adultsGuinea-Bissau: 2.16% per year, 8.2% of adultsGreece: 0.0848% per year, 30.2% of adultsGuatemala: 1.52% per year, 11.2% of adultsGuyana: 0.588% per year, 11.7% of adultsHonduras: 1.65% per year, 12.1% of adultsCroatia: 0.258% per year, 34.4% of adultsHaiti: 1.13% per year, 8% of adultsHungary: -0.501% per year, 30.8% of adultsIndonesia: 0.785% per year, 31% of adultsIndia: 0.887% per year, 22.6% of adultsIreland: 1.63% per year, 18.2% of adultsIran, Islamic Rep.: 0.924% per year, 11.9% of adultsIraq: 2.1% per year, 20.1% of adultsIceland: 1.51% per year, 9.2% of adultsIsrael: 1.2% per year, 21.2% of adultsItaly: -0.0629% per year, 22.4% of adultsJamaica: -0.0739% per year, 11.5% of adultsJordan: -0.279% per year, 34.1% of adultsJapan: -0.492% per year, 17.5% of adultsKazakhstan: 1.21% per year, 21.1% of adultsKenya: 1.93% per year, 9.6% of adultsKyrgyz Republic: 1.66% per year, 22.2% of adultsCambodia: 1.18% per year, 18.6% of adultsKiribati: 1.45% per year, 37.7% of adultsKorea, Rep.: -0.129% per year, 18.6% of adultsKuwait: -0.655% per year, 19.4% of adultsLao PDR: 1.32% per year, 25.4% of adultsLebanon: 0.746% per year, 46.9% of adultsLiberia: 2.09% per year, 5.2% of adultsLibya: 1.04% per year, 24.2% of adultsSt. Lucia: 0.225% per year, 13.9% of adultsSri Lanka: -0.733% per year, 20.7% of adultsLesotho: 1.1% per year, 28% of adultsLithuania: 0.0172% per year, 31.4% of adultsLuxembourg: 1.46% per year, 24.5% of adultsLatvia: -0.988% per year, 34.6% of adultsMorocco: 0.914% per year, 12.5% of adultsMoldova: -1.75% per year, 28.8% of adultsMadagascar: 2.4% per year, 25.6% of adultsMaldives: 0.355% per year, 25.5% of adultsMexico: 0.826% per year, 15.7% of adultsMarshall Islands: -3.43% per year, 29.9% of adultsNorth Macedonia: -0.189% per year, 39.6% of adultsMali: 2.9% per year, 7.4% of adultsMalta: 1.89% per year, 24.6% of adultsMyanmar: 0.641% per year, 43.4% of adultsMontenegro: -0.0635% per year, 37.2% of adultsMongolia: 1.25% per year, 29.5% of adultsMozambique: 2.85% per year, 10.5% of adultsMauritania: 2.78% per year, 9.9% of adultsMauritius: -0.164% per year, 17.7% of adultsMalawi: 2.56% per year, 8.9% of adultsMalaysia: 1.17% per year, 16.9% of adultsNiger: 3.22% per year, 7.4% of adultsNigeria: 2.06% per year, 3.1% of adultsNetherlands: 0.522% per year, 20.5% of adultsNorway: 0.69% per year, 12.9% of adultsNepal: -0.111% per year, 28.7% of adultsNaoero: 0.651% per year, 34.8% of adultsNew Zealand: 0.654% per year, 9.3% of adultsOman: 3.96% per year, 8.5% of adultsPakistan: 1.56% per year, 17.9% of adultsPanama: 1.22% per year, 4.8% of adultsPeru: 1.04% per year, 12.4% of adultsPhilippines: 0.811% per year, 19.9% of adultsPalau: -0.181% per year, 23% of adultsPapua New Guinea: 1.75% per year, 39.3% of adultsPoland: -0.338% per year, 21.7% of adultsPortugal: 1.03% per year, 28.6% of adultsParaguay: 1.2% per year, 6.4% of adultsWest Bank and Gaza: 2.33% per year, 35.5% of adultsQatar: 3.92% per year, 12.5% of adultsRomania: -0.166% per year, 29.7% of adultsRussian Federation: -0.109% per year, 27% of adultsRwanda: 2.17% per year, 10.1% of adultsSaudi Arabia: 4.63% per year, 14.7% of adultsSenegal: 2.3% per year, 5.4% of adultsSingapore: 1.22% per year, 13.8% of adultsSolomon Islands: 2.35% per year, 38.4% of adultsSierra Leone: 2.04% per year, 11.3% of adultsEl Salvador: 0.43% per year, 8.2% of adultsSerbia: -0.568% per year, 39.7% of adultsSao Tome and Principe: 1.98% per year, 8.3% of adultsSlovak Republic: -0.152% per year, 29.5% of adultsSlovenia: 0.168% per year, 20.9% of adultsSweden: 0.254% per year, 20.3% of adultsEswatini: 1.07% per year, 11.5% of adultsSeychelles: 1.13% per year, 17.3% of adultsChad: 3.41% per year, 7.4% of adultsTogo: 2.18% per year, 5.8% of adultsThailand: -0.0672% per year, 17.8% of adultsTurkmenistan: 1.65% per year, 5.4% of adultsTimor-Leste: 1.27% per year, 48.8% of adultsTonga: -0.417% per year, 32.1% of adultsTunisia: 0.58% per year, 24.4% of adultsTurkiye: 0.42% per year, 31.1% of adultsTuvalu: -1.61% per year, 33.4% of adultsTanzania: 2.86% per year, 7.7% of adultsUganda: 2.7% per year, 7.5% of adultsUkraine: 2.92% per year, 23.7% of adultsUruguay: -0.0561% per year, 19.3% of adultsUnited States: 0.522% per year, 15.8% of adultsUzbekistan: 1.88% per year, 16.3% of adultsViet Nam: 0.603% per year, 21.1% of adultsVanuatu: 2.23% per year, 24.9% of adultsSamoa: 0.589% per year, 23.1% of adultsSouth Africa: 1.15% per year, 23.7% of adultsZambia: 2.77% per year, 14.3% of adultsZimbabwe: 1.88% per year, 11% of adultsARECRIGEOJAMMHLOMNSAUSLBSRBTLSTUV

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted-0.4596.2e-10164
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted-0.4999.9e-12164
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income-0.4261.4e-8164
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income-0.4521.4e-9164

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 164 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.033 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from -0.450 (without GEO) to -0.412 (without TUV). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: GEO (-0.024).

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific28-0.07
Europe & Central Asia48-0.36
Latin America & Caribbean21-0.37
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan20-0.38
Sub-Saharan Africa39-0.38

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third55-0.48
Middle third54-0.24
Richest third55-0.41

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians96-0.35
Muslims43-0.54

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France21-0.53
Never a European colony20-0.25
Spain16-0.46
United Kingdom53-0.43

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = -0.417 after dropping 3 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 25years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

Within countries over time, there is no link that is clearly more than chance (r = -0.025, comparing each country only with itself over the years, and each year only with the same year elsewhere). Whatever the cross-country picture shows, countries whose population growth moved did not tend to see their tobacco use move with it.

Across countries (adjusted)-0.426for comparison
Within countries+0.079each country vs itself
…and vs the same year elsewhere-0.025q = 0.713 · 166 countries
Year-on-year changes-0.021q = 0.781

1,493 country-years (one country in one year), 166 countries, 2000–2024, about 9 years each on average. Share of the variation that happens within countries over time: 35% for Population growth, 18% for Tobacco use. The margins of error allow for each country appearing many times, and for each year’s value being close to the year before.

Year-to-year changes are a cautious test, not a final answer. Looking only at changes from one year to the next removes each country’s own trends. But it also makes measurement mistakes louder, which pulls the results toward zero. A near-zero result here is weak evidence of no link, not proof.

With one measure years behind the other

0.20−0.2-100+10years Tobacco use trails Population growth →lag -10: r = -0.026 (n = 830)lag -9: r = -0.102 (n = 830)lag -8: r = -0.095 (n = 830)lag -7: r = -0.098 (n = 825)lag -6: r = -0.133 (n = 830)lag -5: r = -0.068 (n = 996)lag -4: r = -0.065 (n = 996)lag -3: r = -0.055 (n = 1,162)lag -2: r = -0.065 (n = 1,327)lag -1: r = -0.071 (n = 1,494)lag +0: r = -0.025 (n = 1,493)lag +1: r = -0.050 (n = 1,493)lag +2: r = -0.082 (n = 1,493)lag +3: r = -0.069 (n = 1,494)lag +4: r = -0.066 (n = 1,494)lag +5: r = -0.126 (n = 1,494)lag +6: r = -0.091 (n = 1,494)lag +7: r = -0.020 (n = 1,494)lag +8: r = 0.010 (n = 1,494)lag +9: r = 0.063 (n = 1,493)lag +10: r = 0.049 (n = 1,493)

Same year (lag 0): -0.025. A peak away from zero does not show which comes first. These series change slowly — this year’s value is close to last year’s. That makes the curve smooth and nearly symmetric, whatever produced the data. Even a sharp peak at one lag (a gap of some years) would not prove that one measure changes the other.

The largest value on this curve (-0.13 at lag -6) is higher than the same-year one by 0.11. That gap is not a finding. It is the largest of 21 closely related estimates, and picking the biggest of many tests always makes it look bigger. That is exactly why nothing on this site is ranked or chosen by lag.

The data


% per year
% of adults		Years
United Arab Emirates ARE4.68%9%2025, 2024
Saudi Arabia SAU4.63%14.7%2025, 2024
Oman OMN3.96%8.5%2025, 2024
Qatar QAT3.92%12.5%2025, 2024
Chad TCD3.41%7.4%2025, 2024
Niger NER3.22%7.4%2025, 2024
Congo, Dem. Rep. COD3.2%12.3%2025, 2024
Georgia GEO3.18%33%2025, 2024
Ukraine UKR2.92%23.7%2025, 2024
Mali MLI2.9%7.4%2025, 2024
Tanzania TZA2.86%7.7%2025, 2024
Mozambique MOZ2.85%10.5%2025, 2024
Mauritania MRT2.78%9.9%2025, 2024
Zambia ZMB2.77%14.3%2025, 2024
Afghanistan AFG2.77%22.1%2025, 2024

World Bank, World Development Indicators
World Bank, World Development Indicators

Sources

Population growth

Population growth (annual %)

World Bank · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

Tobacco use

Prevalence of current tobacco use (% of adults, age-standardised)

World Health Organization · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

Published every other year.

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2024–2025. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Population growth and Tobacco use

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Population growth changes Tobacco use, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Population growth or Tobacco use