placestats

Birth registration vs. Child stunting

Holds up after adjusting for income

Across 143 countries, Birth registration and Child stunting rise and fall together at r = -0.71 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). Comparing only countries with similar income (GDP per person) shrinks it to -0.42 (q = 0.035, allowing for the many pairs tested). Much of the first figure is that both measures rise with national income, but a moderate negative link remains. Caution: direction is not consistent across regions.

Comparing countries across the middle half of child stunting, 5.55% to 24.4% of children under 5, birth registration is worse by 24.6% of children under 5 at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 17.5% of children under 5.

Link before adjusting (r)-0.709p = 3.8e-23 · 143 countries
After adjusting for national income-0.424p = 1.4e-7 · likely range [-0.55, -0.28]
p, allowing for regions0.037standard error 0.159 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.035across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Birth registration · % of children under 5link with income +0.87 · proxy
Child stunting · % of children under 5link with income -0.80 · proxy

Both of these rise and fall closely with national income, so a strong link between them before adjusting was close to certain. Read the adjusted figure, not the first one.

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Birth registration · % of children under 5 →Child stunting · % of children under 5 →2.7%100%1%55.3%Afghanistan: 42.3% of children under 5, 42% of children under 5Angola: 25% of children under 5, 47.7% of children under 5Albania: 98.4% of children under 5, 7.4% of children under 5Argentina: 99.7% of children under 5, 10.7% of children under 5Armenia: 99.3% of children under 5, 6.2% of children under 5Australia: 100% of children under 5, 3.1% of children under 5Burundi: 83.5% of children under 5, 55.3% of children under 5Belgium: 100% of children under 5, 2.6% of children under 5Benin: 85.6% of children under 5, 33.2% of children under 5Burkina Faso: 76.9% of children under 5, 19.5% of children under 5Bangladesh: 56% of children under 5, 25.1% of children under 5Bulgaria: 100% of children under 5, 5.5% of children under 5Bahrain: 100% of children under 5, 4.6% of children under 5Belarus: 100% of children under 5, 1.1% of children under 5Belize: 95.7% of children under 5, 11.7% of children under 5Bolivia: 91.9% of children under 5, 10.7% of children under 5Brazil: 96.4% of children under 5, 8.9% of children under 5Barbados: 98.7% of children under 5, 5.8% of children under 5Brunei Darussalam: 99.9% of children under 5, 9.9% of children under 5Bhutan: 99.9% of children under 5, 17.9% of children under 5Botswana: 87.5% of children under 5, 21% of children under 5Central African Republic: 44.8% of children under 5, 38.9% of children under 5Chile: 99.4% of children under 5, 1.7% of children under 5Cote d'Ivoire: 71.7% of children under 5, 20.3% of children under 5Cameroon: 61.9% of children under 5, 27.2% of children under 5Congo, Dem. Rep.: 40.1% of children under 5, 44.1% of children under 5Congo, Rep.: 95.9% of children under 5, 16.3% of children under 5Colombia: 96.8% of children under 5, 11.6% of children under 5Comoros: 87.3% of children under 5, 17.4% of children under 5Cabo Verde: 91.4% of children under 5, 5.3% of children under 5Costa Rica: 99.6% of children under 5, 10.6% of children under 5Czechia: 100% of children under 5, 2.4% of children under 5Germany: 100% of children under 5, 2.2% of children under 5Dominican Republic: 92.2% of children under 5, 5.6% of children under 5Algeria: 99.6% of children under 5, 8.9% of children under 5Ecuador: 87.2% of children under 5, 17.7% of children under 5Egypt, Arab Rep.: 99.4% of children under 5, 12.9% of children under 5Estonia: 100% of children under 5, 1.3% of children under 5Ethiopia: 2.7% of children under 5, 35.5% of children under 5Finland: 100% of children under 5, 1.7% of children under 5Fiji: 86.6% of children under 5, 7.2% of children under 5Gabon: 89.6% of children under 5, 13.7% of children under 5United Kingdom: 100% of children under 5, 3.5% of children under 5Georgia: 98.5% of children under 5, 4.7% of children under 5Ghana: 70.6% of children under 5, 15.6% of children under 5Guinea: 62% of children under 5, 26.6% of children under 5Gambia, The: 59% of children under 5, 14% of children under 5Guinea-Bissau: 46% of children under 5, 28.3% of children under 5Equatorial Guinea: 53.5% of children under 5, 17.1% of children under 5Greece: 100% of children under 5, 2% of children under 5Guatemala: 96.4% of children under 5, 44.6% of children under 5Guyana: 98.1% of children under 5, 7.1% of children under 5Honduras: 97% of children under 5, 17.9% of children under 5Haiti: 84.8% of children under 5, 21.6% of children under 5Indonesia: 77% of children under 5, 22.6% of children under 5India: 89.1% of children under 5, 32.9% of children under 5Ireland: 100% of children under 5, 2.2% of children under 5Iran, Islamic Rep.: 98.6% of children under 5, 4.8% of children under 5Iraq: 98.8% of children under 5, 9.4% of children under 5Jamaica: 98% of children under 5, 6.9% of children under 5Jordan: 98% of children under 5, 7.7% of children under 5Japan: 100% of children under 5, 5.2% of children under 5Kazakhstan: 99.7% of children under 5, 4.4% of children under 5Kenya: 66.9% of children under 5, 17.9% of children under 5Kyrgyz Republic: 98.9% of children under 5, 11% of children under 5Cambodia: 73.3% of children under 5, 22% of children under 5Kiribati: 91.6% of children under 5, 14.7% of children under 5Lao PDR: 73% of children under 5, 29.9% of children under 5Lebanon: 98.9% of children under 5, 10.1% of children under 5Liberia: 66.3% of children under 5, 26.9% of children under 5St. Lucia: 92% of children under 5, 2.8% of children under 5Lesotho: 44.5% of children under 5, 35% of children under 5Lithuania: 100% of children under 5, 1.6% of children under 5Latvia: 100% of children under 5, 1.7% of children under 5Morocco: 96.9% of children under 5, 13.7% of children under 5Moldova: 99.6% of children under 5, 4.2% of children under 5Madagascar: 73.8% of children under 5, 38.4% of children under 5Maldives: 98.8% of children under 5, 14.2% of children under 5Mexico: 97% of children under 5, 13.1% of children under 5Marshall Islands: 83.8% of children under 5, 30% of children under 5North Macedonia: 99.8% of children under 5, 3.8% of children under 5Mali: 86.7% of children under 5, 23.2% of children under 5Malta: 100% of children under 5, 3.5% of children under 5Myanmar: 81.3% of children under 5, 24.5% of children under 5Montenegro: 99.4% of children under 5, 8% of children under 5Mongolia: 99.6% of children under 5, 7.1% of children under 5Mozambique: 55% of children under 5, 37% of children under 5Mauritania: 44.8% of children under 5, 21.5% of children under 5Malawi: 67.2% of children under 5, 33.2% of children under 5Namibia: 78.1% of children under 5, 16.4% of children under 5Niger: 63.9% of children under 5, 48.3% of children under 5Nigeria: 42.6% of children under 5, 33.8% of children under 5Netherlands: 100% of children under 5, 1.6% of children under 5Nepal: 77.2% of children under 5, 26% of children under 5Naoero: 95.9% of children under 5, 16% of children under 5Oman: 100% of children under 5, 12.9% of children under 5Pakistan: 42.2% of children under 5, 33.6% of children under 5Panama: 96.7% of children under 5, 14% of children under 5Peru: 96.4% of children under 5, 10.6% of children under 5Philippines: 91.8% of children under 5, 27.7% of children under 5Papua New Guinea: 13.4% of children under 5, 47.6% of children under 5Poland: 100% of children under 5, 1% of children under 5Portugal: 100% of children under 5, 3.2% of children under 5Paraguay: 71% of children under 5, 3.2% of children under 5West Bank and Gaza: 99.2% of children under 5, 8% of children under 5Qatar: 100% of children under 5, 5.4% of children under 5Romania: 100% of children under 5, 7% of children under 5Rwanda: 85.6% of children under 5, 29.8% of children under 5Saudi Arabia: 99.2% of children under 5, 11.1% of children under 5Sudan: 67.3% of children under 5, 35.4% of children under 5Senegal: 78.7% of children under 5, 17.2% of children under 5Singapore: 99.9% of children under 5, 2.8% of children under 5Solomon Islands: 88% of children under 5, 29.8% of children under 5Sierra Leone: 90.4% of children under 5, 25.2% of children under 5El Salvador: 91.2% of children under 5, 9.4% of children under 5Somalia, Fed. Rep.: 5.9% of children under 5, 23.9% of children under 5Serbia: 99.9% of children under 5, 4.6% of children under 5Sao Tome and Principe: 98.6% of children under 5, 10% of children under 5Suriname: 98.3% of children under 5, 8% of children under 5Eswatini: 53.5% of children under 5, 18.9% of children under 5Turks and Caicos Islands: 99.2% of children under 5, 3.2% of children under 5Chad: 25.7% of children under 5, 31.5% of children under 5Togo: 82.9% of children under 5, 23% of children under 5Thailand: 99.8% of children under 5, 12.3% of children under 5Tajikistan: 95.8% of children under 5, 13.1% of children under 5Turkmenistan: 99.9% of children under 5, 6.5% of children under 5Timor-Leste: 60.4% of children under 5, 45.4% of children under 5Tonga: 97.7% of children under 5, 1.6% of children under 5Trinidad and Tobago: 96.5% of children under 5, 7.8% of children under 5Tunisia: 99.9% of children under 5, 8.9% of children under 5Turkiye: 98.4% of children under 5, 5.5% of children under 5Tuvalu: 87.2% of children under 5, 5.3% of children under 5Tanzania: 26.4% of children under 5, 29.9% of children under 5Uganda: 32.2% of children under 5, 23.5% of children under 5Ukraine: 99.8% of children under 5, 11.7% of children under 5Uruguay: 99.8% of children under 5, 6.5% of children under 5United States: 100% of children under 5, 4.2% of children under 5Viet Nam: 96.1% of children under 5, 19.2% of children under 5Vanuatu: 43.4% of children under 5, 31% of children under 5Samoa: 66.9% of children under 5, 8.4% of children under 5South Africa: 88.6% of children under 5, 24.4% of children under 5Zambia: 14% of children under 5, 32.3% of children under 5Zimbabwe: 48.7% of children under 5, 23.7% of children under 5AGOBDIBLRESTETHGTMNERPNGPOLSOMZMB

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted-0.7093.8e-23143
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted-0.8222.6e-36143
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income-0.4241.4e-7143
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income-0.4511.7e-8143

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 143 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.285 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from -0.470 (without BDI) to -0.377 (without AGO). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: AGO (+0.048).

Fragile: this link may not hold up.
  • direction is not consistent across regions

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific23-0.62
Europe & Central Asia29-0.26
Latin America & Caribbean25+0.21
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan16-0.92
Sub-Saharan Africa44-0.29

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third48-0.41
Middle third47-0.47
Richest third48-0.09

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians85-0.42
Muslims40-0.55

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France23-0.38
Never a European colony17-0.73
Spain18+0.12
United Kingdom46-0.49

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = -0.445 after dropping 9 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 0years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

Not enough history inside each country to look at this over time. That needs countries measured for several years in a row, and at least one of these measures is measured too rarely.

The data


% of children under 5
% of children under 5		Years
United States USA100%4.2%2022, 2024
Romania ROU100%7%2020, 2024
Qatar QAT100%5.4%2020, 2024
Portugal PRT100%3.2%2020, 2024
Poland POL100%1%2017, 2024
Oman OMN100%12.9%2018, 2024
Netherlands NLD100%1.6%2022, 2024
Malta MLT100%3.5%2022, 2024
Latvia LVA100%1.7%2022, 2024
Lithuania LTU100%1.6%2020, 2024
Japan JPN100%5.2%2022, 2024
Ireland IRL100%2.2%2022, 2024
Greece GRC100%2%2022, 2024
United Kingdom GBR100%3.5%2022, 2024
Finland FIN100%1.7%2022, 2024

World Bank, World Development Indicators
World Bank, World Development Indicators

Sources

Birth registration

Completeness of birth registration (%)

UNICEF · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

A measure of how far the state reaches: whether it knows a child exists. Based on surveys and sparse. It is near 100 across the rich world, so all the variation is at the other end.

Child stunting

Prevalence of stunting, height for age, modelled estimate (% of children under 5)

UNICEF, WHO and World Bank Joint Child Malnutrition Estimates · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

An estimate from a statistical model. The agencies fit a model to household surveys and predict every country and year. So this is smoother than the surveys behind it, and it has values for years nobody measured. The survey-only series never reaches sixty countries in any year.

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2010–2024. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Birth registration and Child stunting

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Birth registration changes Child stunting, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Birth registration or Child stunting