Republican swing, 2000 to 2024 and Health score
Across 2,905 counties, Republican swing, 2000 to 2024 and Health score have a link of -0.52, on a scale from −1 (opposite) to +1 (in step). But compare places with the same population density, income and education, and what is left could easily be chance. Most of the first figure came from both measures following how urban, rich and educated a place is, not from a link with each other.
Mostly gone after adjusting
Every place, plotted
One dot for each place reporting both measures. Hover over or tap a dot to see its name and values. The thin line is the straight line that best fits the dots. The bold line, shown for counties, is the link after adjusting for density, income and education. A dot far from the lines is a place that does not follow the pattern.
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What each measure is
Republican swing, 2000 to 2024
The change in the Republican share of the two-party presidential vote from 2000 to 2024, in percentage points. Positive means the area moved toward Republicans. That is a different question from which party it votes for.
MIT Election Data and Science Lab · MIT county presidential returns
Health score
One number for a county's health. It averages illness, health habits, preventive care and death rates, each put on the same scale and turned so higher is better. Twenty-six of its thirty measures are CDC PLACES estimates from a statistical model. So measures are averaged within each publisher first, and PLACES counts once, not twenty-six times.
· derived from 41 measures (BRFSS, CDC, CHR)
Highest and lowest
Where each measure is highest and lowest among the places reporting both (2023), with the other measure beside it. This is shown for every size of place where both are published. Metro-area values are added up from their counties. A measure that cannot be added up across counties, such as a middle value (median), has no metro figure. Counts are shown per 1,000 residents, since raw totals would only list the largest places. Cities and towns and ZIP codes are shown where the Census survey or the CDC publishes them; most other sources stop at the county. They are shown for places of 5,000 residents or more, and only where the survey’s margin of error is small enough for the figure to be usable. The CDC publishes its health estimates for cities in a version adjusted for age, so places with older or younger people can be compared fairly, but not for ZIP codes.
Counties
By republican swing, 2000 to 2024
| Republican swing, 2000 to 2024 | Health score | |
|---|---|---|
| Highest | ||
| Jackson County, TN | 52 | -0.789 |
| Grundy County, TN | 50.6 | -0.866 |
| Smith County, TN | 50 | -0.388 |
| Mingo County, WV | 48.4 | -2.02 |
| McDowell County, WV | 48 | -2.16 |
| Lowest | ||
| Rockdale County, GA | -39 | 0.0198 |
| Henry County, GA | -33.2 | 0.183 |
| Douglas County, GA | -28.7 | 0.105 |
| Teton County, WY | -25.5 | 1.59 |
| Ouray County, CO | -25.3 | 1.33 |
By health score
| Republican swing, 2000 to 2024 | Health score | |
|---|---|---|
| Highest | ||
| Pitkin County, CO | -10.9 | 2.09 |
| Manassas Park city, VA | -18.5 | 1.88 |
| Summit County, CO | -15 | 1.81 |
| Teton County, WY | -25.5 | 1.59 |
| Los Alamos County, NM | -23.2 | 1.55 |
| Lowest | ||
| Todd County, SD | -8.45 | -2.84 |
| Buffalo County, SD | 0.69 | -2.51 |
| East Carroll Parish, LA | 3.26 | -2.21 |
| McDowell County, WV | 48 | -2.16 |
| Corson County, SD | 2.64 | -2.12 |
States — Republican swing, 2000 to 2024 is not published for states
By health score
| Republican swing, 2000 to 2024 | Health score | |
|---|---|---|
| Highest | ||
| Hawaii | — | 0.896 |
| Massachusetts | — | 0.83 |
| Connecticut | — | 0.789 |
| New Jersey | — | 0.766 |
| Minnesota | — | 0.688 |
| Lowest | ||
| West Virginia | — | -1.69 |
| Louisiana | — | -1.24 |
| Mississippi | — | -1.24 |
| Arkansas | — | -0.993 |
| Alabama | — | -0.988 |
Metro areas
By republican swing, 2000 to 2024
| Republican swing, 2000 to 2024 | Health score | |
|---|---|---|
| Highest | ||
| Scottsboro, AL | 37.7 | -0.56 |
| McMinnville, TN | 35.4 | -0.615 |
| Rio Grande City-Roma, TX | 35 | -1.36 |
| Lewisburg, TN | 34 | -0.352 |
| Paragould, AR | 33.1 | -0.62 |
| Lowest | ||
| Jackson, WY-ID | -25.1 | 1.02 |
| Los Alamos, NM | -23.2 | 1.76 |
| Boulder, CO | -20.7 | 1.47 |
| Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX | -20.6 | 0.888 |
| Lawrence, KS | -17.6 | 1.2 |
By health score
| Republican swing, 2000 to 2024 | Health score | |
|---|---|---|
| Highest | ||
| Los Alamos, NM | -23.2 | 1.76 |
| Breckenridge, CO | -12.9 | 1.5 |
| Bridgeport-Stamford-Danbury, CT | -4.73 | 1.48 |
| Boulder, CO | -20.7 | 1.47 |
| Heber, UT | -12 | 1.46 |
| Lowest | ||
| Zapata, TX | 24.3 | -1.95 |
| Lumberton, NC | 24.3 | -1.77 |
| Minden, LA | 12.1 | -1.73 |
| Cleveland, MS | 1.56 | -1.68 |
| Durant, OK | 27.4 | -1.67 |
Counties furthest from the pattern
Compared with the straight line that best fits all 2,923 counties: the five with far more health score than their republican swing, 2000 to 2024 would suggest, and the five with far less.
| Republican swing, 2000 to 2024 | Health score | |
|---|---|---|
| Above the line | ||
| Pitkin County, CO | -10.9 | 2.09 |
| Nassau County, NY | 12.2 | 1.2 |
| Dickinson County, IA | 16.6 | 1.02 |
| Northeastern Connecticut Planning Region, CT | 13.8 | 1.07 |
| Bergen County, NJ | 5.3 | 1.27 |
| Below the line | ||
| Todd County, SD | -8.45 | -2.84 |
| Buffalo County, SD | 0.69 | -2.51 |
| Humphreys County, MS | -12.7 | -2.02 |
| Mellette County, SD | -8.68 | -1.97 |
| East Carroll Parish, LA | 3.26 | -2.21 |
Two series, one county
Both measures over time for a county you pick. The two charts are stacked, so they share only the years along the bottom. You can pick from the thirty largest counties reporting both. This panel covers 2010–2024, and a measure published only once shows as a single dot.
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Every version of the link
Each row measures the same link, from −1 to +1, in a different way. If the rows mostly agree, the link does not depend on one choice of method.
| Before adjusting for anything | -0.516 | 2,905 counties reporting both |
| After adjusting for density, income and education | -0.052 | the part of the link that is not just how urban, rich and educated a place is |
| Also adjusting for population size | -0.043 | size taken out as well as density |
| Also comparing only within each state | +0.022 | each county is compared only with others in its own state, so this is no longer a comparison between states |
| Giving bigger counties more weight | -0.001 | the adjusted link for the average resident rather than the average county. With this weighting, the data counts for about 262 equally weighted counties |
| Middle value inside single states | -0.559 | the link worked out inside each of 37 states with at least 20 counties reporting |
| Using ranks, after adjusting | -0.063 | uses each county’s rank, not its value, so a few extreme counties cannot create the link |
How much to believe it
Could it be chance?
The p-value is the chance of seeing a link this strong if there were really none. A value of 0.05 or less means the link is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 3.1e-16 means 0.00000000000000031, and the bigger the number after “e-”, the smaller the value. Treating every county as a separate case gives p = 0.005. But counties in the same state tend to resemble each other, so the better figure allows for that: p = 0.510. The site tested 20,910 pairs, and testing so many turns up some flukes. The q-value allows for that too. For this pair it is 0.007.
Do nearby places look alike?
Moran’s I measures how much nearby places look alike: 0 means no map pattern, and higher means neighbours are more similar. For the part of each county that the adjustment leaves unexplained, it is +0.42 (p = 0.001). That unexplained part still clusters on the map. So some regional factor shared by both measures is not accounted for.
Did they change together?
Not measurable: at least one of these is published for too few of the years a change needs (2014–2019 or 2019–2023), or for too few counties in both.
Related pairs
- Health score and Homicide rate, annual — -0.68
- Health score and Safety score — +0.59
- Material security score and Health score — +0.58
- Homicide rate and Health score — -0.58
- Returns claiming the earned income credit and Health score — -0.55
- Share with a bachelor's degree or higher and Republican swing, 2000 to 2024 — -0.54
- Motor vehicle crash deaths and Health score — -0.50
- Firearm fatalities and Health score — -0.47
Association only. Nothing here shows that either measure changes the other. This describes counties, not the people in them. Two measures going together across places does not mean the same people have both. How the US county data works · Explore Republican swing, 2000 to 2024 and Health score