placestats

Median property tax bill and Congregations per 10,000 people

A county is not a congregation. Counties where more people are counted as adherents (members of a religious group) also tend to differ on the other measure, and that is all. It does not follow that the adherents are the people with the different score. Making that leap is called the ecological fallacy: reading a pattern across places as a fact about individual people. It is as easy to fall into here as with the voting pairs. Two things about the counting matter too. Adherents are counted where their congregation meets, not where they live, so thirty very small counties exceed 100%. And a denomination that did not report is missing, not zero. That undercounts membership most where churches are least formally organised.

Across 3,109 counties, Median property tax bill and Congregations per 10,000 people have a link of -0.52, on a scale from −1 (opposite) to +1 (in step). But compare places with the same population density, income and education, and a very weak link of -0.11 remains. Most of the first figure came from both measures following how urban, rich and educated a place is, not from a link with each other.

Mostly gone after adjusting

Every place, plotted

One dot for each place reporting both measures. Hover over or tap a dot to see its name and values. The thin line is the straight line that best fits the dots. The bold line, shown for counties, is the link after adjusting for density, income and education. A dot far from the lines is a place that does not follow the pattern.

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What each measure is

Median property tax bill

The yearly property tax bill, in dollars, of the middle home-owning household that pays one. Households with no bill are left out, so this is what payers pay, not the average across all owners.

Census ACS 5-year · ACS table B25103_001

Congregations per 10,000 people

How many separate congregations a place has per ten thousand residents. That is a different question from how many people belong. Rural counties have many small churches, and cities have fewer large ones.

· Religion Census 2020 files; 2010 from the ARDA, RCMSCY10 and RCMSST10

Highest and lowest

Where each measure is highest and lowest among the places reporting both (2023), with the other measure beside it. This is shown for every size of place where both are published. Metro-area values are added up from their counties. A measure that cannot be added up across counties, such as a middle value (median), has no metro figure. Counts are shown per 1,000 residents, since raw totals would only list the largest places. Cities and towns and ZIP codes are shown where the Census survey or the CDC publishes them; most other sources stop at the county. They are shown for places of 5,000 residents or more, and only where the survey’s margin of error is small enough for the figure to be usable. The CDC publishes its health estimates for cities in a version adjusted for age, so places with older or younger people can be compared fairly, but not for ZIP codes.

Counties

By median property tax bill

Median property tax billCongregations per 10,000 people
Highest — 16 are at $10,000 or more; five shown.
Bergen County, NJ$10,000 or more6.86
Essex County, NJ$10,000 or more7.58
Hunterdon County, NJ$10,000 or more8.22
Monmouth County, NJ$10,000 or more5.97
Morris County, NJ$10,000 or more6.36
Lowest — 7 are at $200 or less; five shown.
Northwest Arctic Borough, AK$200 or less30.8
Kusilvak Census Area, AK$200 or less28.7
Copper River Census Area, AK$200 or less34.4
Choctaw County, AL$200 or less60
Oglala Lakota County, SD$200 or less17.6

By congregations per 10,000 people

Median property tax billCongregations per 10,000 people
Highest
Blaine County, NE1,211116
Grant County, NE853115
Harding County, NM328107
Sheridan County, ND753103
Boyd County, NE1,26899.4
Lowest
Alpine County, CA3,1900
Manassas Park city, VA4,3291.74
Ocean County, NJ6,4993.63
Kendall County, IL7,5563.64
Bronx County, NY5,3103.96
States

By median property tax bill

Median property tax billCongregations per 10,000 people
Highest
New Jersey9,5416.54
Connecticut6,5758.01
New Hampshire6,5057.61
New York6,4506.85
Massachusetts5,8136.2
Lowest
Alabama73821.4
West Virginia83522.7
Arkansas1,00324.7
Louisiana1,14614.2
Mississippi1,18924.3

By congregations per 10,000 people

Median property tax billCongregations per 10,000 people
Highest
Arkansas1,00324.7
Mississippi1,18924.3
West Virginia83522.7
South Dakota2,59021.9
Alabama73821.4
Lowest
Nevada1,9704.96
California4,9265.96
Massachusetts5,8136.2
Rhode Island4,8546.45
New Jersey9,5416.54
Metro areas — Median property tax bill is not published for metro areas

By congregations per 10,000 people

Median property tax billCongregations per 10,000 people
Highest
Camden, AR—66.1
Arkadelphia, AR—46.2
Magnolia, AR—43.4
El Dorado, AR—41.5
Forrest City, AR—39
Lowest
Las Vegas-Henderson-North Las Vegas, NV—4.2
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA—4.89
Reno, NV—5.15
San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA—5.3
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA—5.31
Cities and towns — Congregations per 10,000 people is not published for cities and towns

By median property tax bill

Median property tax billCongregations per 10,000 people
Highest — 491 are at $10,000 or more; five shown.
Key Biscayne village, FL$10,000 or more—
Palm Beach town, FL$10,000 or more—
Parkland city, FL$10,000 or more—
Pinecrest village, FL$10,000 or more—
Barrington village, IL$10,000 or more—
Lowest — 11 are at $200 or less; five shown.
Vega Alta zona urbana, PR$200 or less—
Las Piedras zona urbana, PR$200 or less—
Juncos zona urbana, PR$200 or less—
Ville Platte city, LA$200 or less—
Tallulah city, LA$200 or less—
ZIP codes — Congregations per 10,000 people is not published for ZIP codes

By median property tax bill

Median property tax billCongregations per 10,000 people
Highest — 712 are at $10,000 or more; five shown.
ZIP 10003 (New York city, NY)$10,000 or more—
ZIP 10005 (New York city, NY)$10,000 or more—
ZIP 10007 (New York city, NY)$10,000 or more—
ZIP 10010 (New York city, NY)$10,000 or more—
ZIP 10011 (New York city, NY)$10,000 or more—
Lowest — 28 are at $200 or less; five shown.
ZIP 00783 (Corozal Municipio, PR)$200 or less—
ZIP 00782 (Comerío Municipio, PR)$200 or less—
ZIP 00777 (Juncos Municipio, PR)$200 or less—
ZIP 00765 (Vieques Municipio, PR)$200 or less—
ZIP 00723 (Patillas Municipio, PR)$200 or less—

Counties furthest from the pattern

Compared with the straight line that best fits all 3,123 counties: the five with far more congregations per 10,000 people than their median property tax bill would suggest, and the five with far less.

Median property tax billCongregations per 10,000 people
Above the line
Blaine County, NE1,211116
Grant County, NE853115
Harding County, NM328107
Sheridan County, ND753103
Boyd County, NE1,26899.4
Below the line
Elliott County, KY6715.44
St. Martin Parish, LA6107.15
Vermilion Parish, LA5388.72
St. Bernard Parish, LA9766.85
Starr County, TX1,0477.13

Two series, one county

Both measures over time for a county you pick. The two charts are stacked, so they share only the years along the bottom. You can pick from the thirty largest counties reporting both. This panel covers 2010–2024, and a measure published only once shows as a single dot.

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Every version of the link

Each row measures the same link, from −1 to +1, in a different way. If the rows mostly agree, the link does not depend on one choice of method.

Before adjusting for anything-0.5173,109 counties reporting both
After adjusting for density, income and education-0.112the part of the link that is not just how urban, rich and educated a place is
Also adjusting for population size-0.057size taken out as well as density
Also comparing only within each state+0.023each county is compared only with others in its own state, so this is no longer a comparison between states
Giving bigger counties more weight-0.032the adjusted link for the average resident rather than the average county. With this weighting, the data counts for about 287 equally weighted counties
Middle value inside single states-0.637the link worked out inside each of 40 states with at least 20 counties reporting
Using ranks, after adjusting-0.344uses each county’s rank, not its value, so a few extreme counties cannot create the link

How much to believe it

Could it be chance?

The p-value is the chance of seeing a link this strong if there were really none. A value of 0.05 or less means the link is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 3.1e-16 means 0.00000000000000031, and the bigger the number after “e-”, the smaller the value. Treating every county as a separate case gives p = 4.3e-10. But counties in the same state tend to resemble each other, so the better figure allows for that: p = 0.034. The site tested 20,910 pairs, and testing so many turns up some flukes. The q-value allows for that too. For this pair it is 9.8e-10.

Do nearby places look alike?

Moran’s I measures how much nearby places look alike: 0 means no map pattern, and higher means neighbours are more similar. For the part of each county that the adjustment leaves unexplained, it is +0.38 (p = 0.001). That unexplained part still clusters on the map. So some regional factor shared by both measures is not accounted for.

Did they change together?

Not measurable: at least one of these is published for too few of the years a change needs (2014–2019 or 2019–2023), or for too few counties in both.

Related pairs

Association only. Nothing here shows that either measure changes the other. This describes counties, not the people in them. Two measures going together across places does not mean the same people have both. How the US county data works · Explore Median property tax bill and Congregations per 10,000 people