Average test score and Theft rate
Where Average test score is higher, Theft rate tends to be lower. The link is weak: -0.30 across 2,034 counties, on a scale from −1 (opposite) to +1 (in step). That figure compares places with the same population density, income and education, so those differences can't explain it. It holds inside states too. Measured separately within each of 36 states, the middle value of the link is -0.09.
Holds after adjusting
Every place, plotted
One dot for each place reporting both measures. Hover over or tap a dot to see its name and values. The thin line is the straight line that best fits the dots. The bold line, shown for counties, is the link after adjusting for density, income and education. A dot far from the lines is a place that does not follow the pattern.
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What each measure is
Average test score
How far above or below the national average children here score on tests, in grade levels. Minus one means about a year behind. It reflects everything in children's lives, not only their schools.
Stanford Education Data Archive · SEDA cs_mn_avg_ol
Theft rate
Thefts in the year, per 100,000 residents, from the FBI. This covers shoplifting, pickpocketing and stealing from cars or bikes, but not the theft of a vehicle itself. It counts only crimes reported to police or found by them, so crimes nobody reports are missing. For a state, the figure is the FBI's estimate, which fills in for police agencies that did not report. For a county, it is only what the agencies reported, and it is shown only where agencies that reported for all 12 months serve at least 90% of the people who live there.
FBI Uniform Crime Reporting program (Crime Data Explorer) · FBI Crime Data Explorer: states, estimated_crimes larceny; counties, Return A master file, actual offenses
Highest and lowest
Where each measure is highest and lowest among the places reporting both (2023), with the other measure beside it. This is shown for every size of place where both are published. Metro-area values are added up from their counties. A measure that cannot be added up across counties, such as a middle value (median), has no metro figure. Counts are shown per 1,000 residents, since raw totals would only list the largest places. Cities and towns and ZIP codes are shown where the Census survey or the CDC publishes them; most other sources stop at the county. They are shown for places of 5,000 residents or more, and only where the survey’s margin of error is small enough for the figure to be usable. The CDC publishes its health estimates for cities in a version adjusted for age, so places with older or younger people can be compared fairly, but not for ZIP codes.
Counties
By average test score
| Average test score | Theft rate | |
|---|---|---|
| Highest | ||
| Forsyth County, GA | 0.713 | 348 |
| Norfolk County, MA | 0.652 | 735 |
| Morris County, NJ | 0.627 | 571 |
| Williamson County, TN | 0.621 | 619 |
| Hamilton County, IN | 0.619 | 586 |
| Lowest | ||
| St. Helena Parish, LA | -1.16 | 1,159 |
| Sioux County, ND | -1.15 | 27.4 |
| Greene County, AL | -0.952 | 777 |
| North Slope Borough, AK | -0.952 | 252 |
| Lee County, SC | -0.944 | 1,711 |
By theft rate
| Average test score | Theft rate | |
|---|---|---|
| Highest | ||
| San Francisco County, CA | -0.0706 | 4,195 |
| Martin County, TX | -0.228 | 3,965 |
| Shelby County, TN | -0.36 | 3,811 |
| Gilpin County, CO | 0.12 | 3,709 |
| St. Louis city, MO | -0.663 | 3,457 |
| Lowest | ||
| Presidio County, TX | -0.296 | 0 |
| King County, TX | 0.226 | 0 |
| Griggs County, ND | 0.194 | 0 |
| Thomas County, NE | 0.324 | 0 |
| Stanton County, NE | 0.124 | 0 |
States — Average test score is not published for states
By theft rate
| Average test score | Theft rate | |
|---|---|---|
| Highest | ||
| District of Columbia | — | 2,959 |
| Colorado | — | 1,899 |
| Oregon | — | 1,844 |
| New Mexico | — | 1,839 |
| Louisiana | — | 1,780 |
| Lowest | ||
| Idaho | — | 599 |
| New Hampshire | — | 789 |
| Rhode Island | — | 858 |
| Massachusetts | — | 866 |
| West Virginia | — | 916 |
Metro areas
By average test score
| Average test score | Theft rate | |
|---|---|---|
| Highest | ||
| Vineyard Haven, MA | 0.583 | 578 |
| Sheridan, WY | 0.536 | 663 |
| Lewisburg, PA | 0.521 | 481 |
| Alexandria, MN | 0.453 | 632 |
| Boulder, CO | 0.45 | 2,011 |
| Lowest | ||
| Forrest City, AR | -0.774 | 1,362 |
| Shawano, WI | -0.756 | 602 |
| Selma, AL | -0.724 | 1,070 |
| Eufaula, AL-GA | -0.647 | 1,265 |
| Clearlake, CA | -0.613 | 862 |
By theft rate
| Average test score | Theft rate | |
|---|---|---|
| Highest | ||
| Memphis, TN-MS-AR | -0.294 | 3,077 |
| Great Falls, MT | 0.236 | 3,039 |
| Wichita, KS | -0.037 | 2,952 |
| Lumberton, NC | -0.453 | 2,805 |
| Cordele, GA | -0.256 | 2,696 |
| Lowest | ||
| Lexington, NE | -0.187 | 0 |
| Columbus, IN | 0.198 | 9.66 |
| Las Vegas, NM | -0.451 | 90.3 |
| Bedford, IN | -0.0437 | 135 |
| Pikeville, KY | 0.107 | 162 |
Counties furthest from the pattern
Compared with the straight line that best fits all 2,040 counties: the five with far more theft rate than their average test score would suggest, and the five with far less.
| Average test score | Theft rate | |
|---|---|---|
| Above the line | ||
| San Francisco County, CA | -0.0706 | 4,195 |
| Martin County, TX | -0.228 | 3,965 |
| Gilpin County, CO | 0.12 | 3,709 |
| Shelby County, TN | -0.36 | 3,811 |
| Multnomah County, OR | -0.117 | 3,454 |
| Below the line | ||
| Sioux County, ND | -1.15 | 27.4 |
| Amite County, MS | -0.809 | 25.5 |
| Roberts County, SD | -0.555 | 36 |
| Dewey County, SD | -0.552 | 60.4 |
| Owsley County, KY | -0.353 | 0 |
Two series, one county
Both measures over time for a county you pick. The two charts are stacked, so they share only the years along the bottom. You can pick from the thirty largest counties reporting both. This panel covers 2010–2024, and a measure published only once shows as a single dot.
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Every version of the link
Each row measures the same link, from −1 to +1, in a different way. If the rows mostly agree, the link does not depend on one choice of method.
| Before adjusting for anything | -0.147 | 2,034 counties reporting both |
| After adjusting for density, income and education | -0.300 | the part of the link that is not just how urban, rich and educated a place is |
| Also adjusting for population size | -0.267 | size taken out as well as density |
| Also comparing only within each state | -0.191 | each county is compared only with others in its own state, so this is no longer a comparison between states |
| Giving bigger counties more weight | -0.440 | the adjusted link for the average resident rather than the average county. With this weighting, the data counts for about 211 equally weighted counties |
| Middle value inside single states | -0.095 | the link worked out inside each of 36 states with at least 20 counties reporting |
| Using ranks, after adjusting | -0.297 | uses each county’s rank, not its value, so a few extreme counties cannot create the link |
How much to believe it
Could it be chance?
The p-value is the chance of seeing a link this strong if there were really none. A value of 0.05 or less means the link is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 3.1e-16 means 0.00000000000000031, and the bigger the number after “e-”, the smaller the value. Treating every county as a separate case gives p = 1.6e-43. But counties in the same state tend to resemble each other, so the better figure allows for that: p = 3.2e-9. The site tested 29,403 pairs, and testing so many turns up some flukes. The q-value allows for that too. For this pair it is 9.4e-43.
Do nearby places look alike?
Moran’s I measures how much nearby places look alike: 0 means no map pattern, and higher means neighbours are more similar. For the part of each county that the adjustment leaves unexplained, it is +0.25 (p = 0.001). That unexplained part still clusters on the map. So some regional factor shared by both measures is not accounted for.
Did they change together?
Not measurable: at least one of these is published for too few of the years a change needs (2014–2019 or 2019–2023), or for too few counties in both.
Related pairs
- Housing insecurity and Average test score — -0.71
- Food insecurity and Average test score — -0.70
- Lack of reliable transportation and Average test score — -0.69
- Share White, not Hispanic and Average test score — +0.66
- Lacking social and emotional support and Average test score — -0.65
- Threat of utility shut-off and Average test score — -0.65
- Received food stamps and Average test score — -0.64
- Material security score and Average test score — +0.62
Association only. Nothing here shows that either measure changes the other. This describes counties, not the people in them. Two measures going together across places does not mean the same people have both. How the US county data works · Explore Average test score and Theft rate