placestats

Slum share of urban population vs. Tobacco use

Holds up after adjusting for income

Across 162 countries, Slum share of urban population and Tobacco use rise and fall together at r = -0.40 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). It holds up almost unchanged when only countries with similar income (GDP per person) are compared (r = -0.38, q = 0.038, allowing for the many pairs tested). Caution: much weaker within regions than across them (largely a between-region difference).

Comparing countries across the middle half of tobacco use, 11.2% to 26.6% of adults, slum share of urban population is better by 14.7% of urban population at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 9.81% of urban population.

Link before adjusting (r)-0.396p = 1.8e-7 · 162 countries
After adjusting for national income-0.385p = 4.7e-7 · likely range [-0.51, -0.24]
p, allowing for regions0.003standard error 0.078 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.038across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Slum share of urban population · % of urban populationlink with income -0.78 · high
Tobacco use · % of adultslink with income +0.24 · independent

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Slum share of urban population · % of urban population →Tobacco use · % of adults →0%92.5%3.1%48.8%Afghanistan: 71.6% of urban population, 22.1% of adultsAlbania: 2.7% of urban population, 21.4% of adultsAndorra: 0% of urban population, 35.5% of adultsUnited Arab Emirates: 0.113% of urban population, 9% of adultsArgentina: 14.5% of urban population, 23.5% of adultsArmenia: 8.39% of urban population, 26.2% of adultsAustralia: 0.035% of urban population, 11.6% of adultsAustria: 0.0466% of urban population, 23.8% of adultsAzerbaijan: 26.9% of urban population, 18.7% of adultsBurundi: 36.8% of urban population, 10.1% of adultsBelgium: 0% of urban population, 23.5% of adultsBenin: 64% of urban population, 7.4% of adultsBurkina Faso: 87.9% of urban population, 11.6% of adultsBangladesh: 51.5% of urban population, 32% of adultsBulgaria: 0.197% of urban population, 38.7% of adultsBahrain: 0% of urban population, 15.4% of adultsBosnia and Herzegovina: 0.313% of urban population, 37.1% of adultsBelarus: 0.004% of urban population, 29.2% of adultsBelize: 15.7% of urban population, 8.5% of adultsBolivia: 46.6% of urban population, 12.3% of adultsBrazil: 14.9% of urban population, 11.9% of adultsBrunei Darussalam: 21.6% of urban population, 14.5% of adultsBhutan: 44.7% of urban population, 19.6% of adultsBotswana: 39.6% of urban population, 18% of adultsCanada: 1.1% of urban population, 11.2% of adultsSwitzerland: 0% of urban population, 23.1% of adultsChile: 7.32% of urban population, 26.7% of adultsChina: 26.3% of urban population, 22.8% of adultsCote d'Ivoire: 48.3% of urban population, 7.3% of adultsCameroon: 32.7% of urban population, 5.7% of adultsCongo, Dem. Rep.: 78.4% of urban population, 12.3% of adultsCongo, Rep.: 75.3% of urban population, 16.2% of adultsColombia: 9.7% of urban population, 8% of adultsComoros: 48.5% of urban population, 8.9% of adultsCabo Verde: 46.4% of urban population, 10.4% of adultsCosta Rica: 3.55% of urban population, 7.9% of adultsCyprus: 0.272% of urban population, 32.5% of adultsCzechia: 0.0273% of urban population, 28.4% of adultsGermany: 0% of urban population, 22% of adultsDenmark: 0% of urban population, 15.7% of adultsAlgeria: 13.2% of urban population, 22.4% of adultsEcuador: 57.8% of urban population, 10.1% of adultsEgypt, Arab Rep.: 3.84% of urban population, 25% of adultsSpain: 0.046% of urban population, 27.6% of adultsEstonia: 0.345% of urban population, 26.1% of adultsEthiopia: 64.3% of urban population, 5.2% of adultsFinland: 0% of urban population, 21.4% of adultsFiji: 9.4% of urban population, 25.8% of adultsFrance: 0% of urban population, 33.6% of adultsGabon: 38.8% of urban population, 13.3% of adultsUnited Kingdom: 0.163% of urban population, 12.8% of adultsGeorgia: 7.08% of urban population, 33% of adultsGhana: 33.5% of urban population, 3.3% of adultsGambia, The: 37.1% of urban population, 11.1% of adultsGuinea-Bissau: 59% of urban population, 8.2% of adultsGreece: 0.05% of urban population, 30.2% of adultsGuatemala: 37.6% of urban population, 11.2% of adultsGuyana: 11.3% of urban population, 11.7% of adultsHonduras: 31.5% of urban population, 12.1% of adultsCroatia: 0.527% of urban population, 34.4% of adultsHaiti: 51.1% of urban population, 8% of adultsHungary: 7.2% of urban population, 30.8% of adultsIndonesia: 19.4% of urban population, 31% of adultsIndia: 5.41% of urban population, 22.6% of adultsIreland: 8.5% of urban population, 18.2% of adultsIran, Islamic Rep.: 44.7% of urban population, 11.9% of adultsIraq: 49.3% of urban population, 20.1% of adultsIceland: 0% of urban population, 9.2% of adultsItaly: 0.02% of urban population, 22.4% of adultsJamaica: 0.883% of urban population, 11.5% of adultsJordan: 23.4% of urban population, 34.1% of adultsJapan: 2% of urban population, 17.5% of adultsKazakhstan: 0.794% of urban population, 21.1% of adultsKenya: 40.5% of urban population, 9.6% of adultsKyrgyz Republic: 2.44% of urban population, 22.2% of adultsCambodia: 42.3% of urban population, 18.6% of adultsKiribati: 5.93% of urban population, 37.7% of adultsKorea, Rep.: 4.5% of urban population, 18.6% of adultsKuwait: 0% of urban population, 19.4% of adultsLao PDR: 54.8% of urban population, 25.4% of adultsLebanon: 4.53% of urban population, 46.9% of adultsLiberia: 60.5% of urban population, 5.2% of adultsLibya: 16.6% of urban population, 24.2% of adultsSt. Lucia: 0.441% of urban population, 13.9% of adultsSri Lanka: 44.7% of urban population, 20.7% of adultsLesotho: 25.6% of urban population, 28% of adultsLithuania: 0.509% of urban population, 31.4% of adultsLuxembourg: 0.0173% of urban population, 24.5% of adultsLatvia: 0.593% of urban population, 34.6% of adultsMorocco: 10.9% of urban population, 12.5% of adultsMoldova: 6.5% of urban population, 28.8% of adultsMadagascar: 65.7% of urban population, 25.6% of adultsMaldives: 34.8% of urban population, 25.5% of adultsMexico: 17.6% of urban population, 15.7% of adultsMarshall Islands: 2.38% of urban population, 29.9% of adultsNorth Macedonia: 0.278% of urban population, 39.6% of adultsMali: 92.5% of urban population, 7.4% of adultsMalta: 0.0375% of urban population, 24.6% of adultsMyanmar: 58.3% of urban population, 43.4% of adultsMontenegro: 8.77% of urban population, 37.2% of adultsMongolia: 17.9% of urban population, 29.5% of adultsMozambique: 55% of urban population, 10.5% of adultsMauritania: 58.6% of urban population, 9.9% of adultsMauritius: 48.7% of urban population, 17.7% of adultsMalawi: 38% of urban population, 8.9% of adultsMalaysia: 0.2% of urban population, 16.9% of adultsNiger: 70.4% of urban population, 7.4% of adultsNigeria: 48.5% of urban population, 3.1% of adultsNetherlands: 0% of urban population, 20.5% of adultsNorway: 0% of urban population, 12.9% of adultsNepal: 40.1% of urban population, 28.7% of adultsNaoero: 0.597% of urban population, 34.8% of adultsNew Zealand: 0% of urban population, 9.3% of adultsOman: 0% of urban population, 8.5% of adultsPakistan: 56% of urban population, 17.9% of adultsPanama: 16.3% of urban population, 4.8% of adultsPeru: 45.1% of urban population, 12.4% of adultsPhilippines: 35.9% of urban population, 19.9% of adultsPalau: 0.618% of urban population, 23% of adultsPapua New Guinea: 22.3% of urban population, 39.3% of adultsPoland: 4.22% of urban population, 21.7% of adultsPortugal: 0.059% of urban population, 28.6% of adultsParaguay: 15.1% of urban population, 6.4% of adultsWest Bank and Gaza: 19.5% of urban population, 35.5% of adultsQatar: 0% of urban population, 12.5% of adultsRomania: 2.52% of urban population, 29.7% of adultsRussian Federation: 2.62% of urban population, 27% of adultsRwanda: 38.3% of urban population, 10.1% of adultsSaudi Arabia: 0.55% of urban population, 14.7% of adultsSenegal: 46.4% of urban population, 5.4% of adultsSingapore: 0% of urban population, 13.8% of adultsSolomon Islands: 1.95% of urban population, 38.4% of adultsSierra Leone: 49.3% of urban population, 11.3% of adultsEl Salvador: 16.5% of urban population, 8.2% of adultsSerbia: 1.42% of urban population, 39.7% of adultsSao Tome and Principe: 82.4% of urban population, 8.3% of adultsSlovak Republic: 0.066% of urban population, 29.5% of adultsSlovenia: 0.527% of urban population, 20.9% of adultsSweden: 0.336% of urban population, 20.3% of adultsEswatini: 17% of urban population, 11.5% of adultsSeychelles: 48.7% of urban population, 17.3% of adultsChad: 82% of urban population, 7.4% of adultsTogo: 38.5% of urban population, 5.8% of adultsThailand: 2% of urban population, 17.8% of adultsTurkmenistan: 8.38% of urban population, 5.4% of adultsTimor-Leste: 33.9% of urban population, 48.8% of adultsTonga: 0.308% of urban population, 32.1% of adultsTunisia: 7.64% of urban population, 24.4% of adultsTurkiye: 14.1% of urban population, 31.1% of adultsTuvalu: 50.9% of urban population, 33.4% of adultsTanzania: 70.1% of urban population, 7.7% of adultsUganda: 52.7% of urban population, 7.5% of adultsUkraine: 1.1% of urban population, 23.7% of adultsUruguay: 1.3% of urban population, 19.3% of adultsUnited States: 0.0932% of urban population, 15.8% of adultsUzbekistan: 7.1% of urban population, 16.3% of adultsViet Nam: 32.5% of urban population, 21.1% of adultsVanuatu: 3.06% of urban population, 24.9% of adultsSamoa: 34.6% of urban population, 23.1% of adultsSouth Africa: 24.2% of urban population, 23.7% of adultsZambia: 48.3% of urban population, 14.3% of adultsZimbabwe: 54.9% of urban population, 11% of adultsARELBNMKDMLIMMROMNSRBSTPTCDTKMTLSTUV

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted-0.3961.8e-7162
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted-0.3796.6e-7162
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income-0.3854.7e-7162
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income-0.3184.0e-5162

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 162 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.011 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from -0.413 (without MMR) to -0.359 (without SLB). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: MMR (-0.028).

Fragile: this link may not hold up.
  • much weaker within regions than across them (largely a between-region difference)

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific28+0.03
Europe & Central Asia48-0.19
Latin America & Caribbean20-0.07
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan19-0.52
Sub-Saharan Africa39-0.14

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third54-0.43
Middle third54-0.36
Richest third54-0.18

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians95-0.48
Muslims43-0.41

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France21-0.32
Never a European colony20-0.09
Spain16-0.03
United Kingdom51-0.26

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = -0.385 after dropping 0 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 0years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

Not enough history inside each country to look at this over time. That needs countries measured for several years in a row, and at least one of these measures is measured too rarely.

The data


% of urban population
% of adults		Years
Mali MLI92.5%7.4%2022, 2024
Burkina Faso BFA87.9%11.6%2022, 2024
Sao Tome and Principe STP82.4%8.3%2022, 2024
Chad TCD82%7.4%2022, 2024
Congo, Dem. Rep. COD78.4%12.3%2022, 2024
Congo, Rep. COG75.3%16.2%2022, 2024
Afghanistan AFG71.6%22.1%2022, 2024
Niger NER70.4%7.4%2022, 2024
Tanzania TZA70.1%7.7%2022, 2024
Madagascar MDG65.7%25.6%2022, 2024
Ethiopia ETH64.3%5.2%2022, 2024
Benin BEN64%7.4%2022, 2024
Liberia LBR60.5%5.2%2022, 2024
Guinea-Bissau GNB59%8.2%2022, 2024
Mauritania MRT58.6%9.9%2022, 2024

World Bank, World Development Indicators
World Bank, World Development Indicators

Sources

Slum share of urban population

Population living in slums (% of urban population)

UN-Habitat · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

Tobacco use

Prevalence of current tobacco use (% of adults, age-standardised)

World Health Organization · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

Published every other year.

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2012–2024. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Slum share of urban population and Tobacco use

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Slum share of urban population changes Tobacco use, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Slum share of urban population or Tobacco use