placestats

Road traffic deaths vs. Tobacco use

Holds up after adjusting for income

Across 162 countries, Road traffic deaths and Tobacco use rise and fall together at r = -0.45 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). It holds up almost unchanged when only countries with similar income (GDP per person) are compared (r = -0.45, q = 0.022, allowing for the many pairs tested). Caution: direction is not consistent across regions.

Comparing countries across the middle half of tobacco use, 11.2% to 26% of adults, road traffic deaths is better by 6.55 per 100,000 population at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 4.64 per 100,000 population.

Link before adjusting (r)-0.453p = 1.5e-9 · 162 countries
After adjusting for national income-0.450p = 2.2e-9 · likely range [-0.57, -0.32]
p, allowing for regions2.5e-5standard error 0.039 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.022across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Road traffic deaths · per 100,000 populationlink with income -0.71 · high
Tobacco use · % of adultslink with income +0.24 · independent

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Road traffic deaths · per 100,000 population →Tobacco use · % of adults →1.641.23.1%48.8%Afghanistan: 15.9 per 100,000 population, 22.1% of adultsAlbania: 11.7 per 100,000 population, 21.4% of adultsAndorra: 7.6 per 100,000 population, 35.5% of adultsUnited Arab Emirates: 8.9 per 100,000 population, 9% of adultsArgentina: 14.1 per 100,000 population, 23.5% of adultsArmenia: 20 per 100,000 population, 26.2% of adultsAustralia: 4.9 per 100,000 population, 11.6% of adultsAustria: 4.9 per 100,000 population, 23.8% of adultsAzerbaijan: 6.7 per 100,000 population, 18.7% of adultsBurundi: 35.5 per 100,000 population, 10.1% of adultsBelgium: 5.8 per 100,000 population, 23.5% of adultsBenin: 26.8 per 100,000 population, 7.4% of adultsBurkina Faso: 31 per 100,000 population, 11.6% of adultsBangladesh: 15.3 per 100,000 population, 32% of adultsBulgaria: 9.2 per 100,000 population, 38.7% of adultsBahrain: 5.2 per 100,000 population, 15.4% of adultsBahamas, The: 7.7 per 100,000 population, 17.3% of adultsBosnia and Herzegovina: 13.5 per 100,000 population, 37.1% of adultsBelarus: 7.6 per 100,000 population, 29.2% of adultsBelize: 22.6 per 100,000 population, 8.5% of adultsBolivia: 21.1 per 100,000 population, 12.3% of adultsBrazil: 16 per 100,000 population, 11.9% of adultsBrunei Darussalam: 7.5 per 100,000 population, 14.5% of adultsBhutan: 16.2 per 100,000 population, 19.6% of adultsBotswana: 26.4 per 100,000 population, 18% of adultsCanada: 5.3 per 100,000 population, 11.2% of adultsSwitzerland: 2.2 per 100,000 population, 23.1% of adultsChile: 14.9 per 100,000 population, 26.7% of adultsChina: 17.4 per 100,000 population, 22.8% of adultsCote d'Ivoire: 24.1 per 100,000 population, 7.3% of adultsCameroon: 30.2 per 100,000 population, 5.7% of adultsCongo, Dem. Rep.: 34.9 per 100,000 population, 12.3% of adultsCongo, Rep.: 29.7 per 100,000 population, 16.2% of adultsColombia: 15.4 per 100,000 population, 8% of adultsComoros: 26.6 per 100,000 population, 8.9% of adultsCabo Verde: 26.8 per 100,000 population, 10.4% of adultsCosta Rica: 14.8 per 100,000 population, 7.9% of adultsCyprus: 5.8 per 100,000 population, 32.5% of adultsCzechia: 5.9 per 100,000 population, 28.4% of adultsGermany: 3.8 per 100,000 population, 22% of adultsDenmark: 3.7 per 100,000 population, 15.7% of adultsAlgeria: 20.9 per 100,000 population, 22.4% of adultsEcuador: 20.1 per 100,000 population, 10.1% of adultsEgypt, Arab Rep.: 10.1 per 100,000 population, 25% of adultsSpain: 3.9 per 100,000 population, 27.6% of adultsEstonia: 4.5 per 100,000 population, 26.1% of adultsEthiopia: 28.2 per 100,000 population, 5.2% of adultsFinland: 3.9 per 100,000 population, 21.4% of adultsFiji: 13.5 per 100,000 population, 25.8% of adultsFrance: 5.1 per 100,000 population, 33.6% of adultsGabon: 23.9 per 100,000 population, 13.3% of adultsUnited Kingdom: 3.2 per 100,000 population, 12.8% of adultsGeorgia: 12.4 per 100,000 population, 33% of adultsGhana: 25.7 per 100,000 population, 3.3% of adultsGambia, The: 29.6 per 100,000 population, 11.1% of adultsGuinea-Bissau: 32.2 per 100,000 population, 8.2% of adultsGreece: 8.3 per 100,000 population, 30.2% of adultsGuatemala: 22.9 per 100,000 population, 11.2% of adultsGuyana: 22.3 per 100,000 population, 11.7% of adultsHonduras: 16.1 per 100,000 population, 12.1% of adultsCroatia: 7.9 per 100,000 population, 34.4% of adultsHaiti: 18.8 per 100,000 population, 8% of adultsHungary: 7.7 per 100,000 population, 30.8% of adultsIndonesia: 11.3 per 100,000 population, 31% of adultsIndia: 15.6 per 100,000 population, 22.6% of adultsIreland: 3.1 per 100,000 population, 18.2% of adultsIran, Islamic Rep.: 21.5 per 100,000 population, 11.9% of adultsIraq: 27.3 per 100,000 population, 20.1% of adultsIceland: 2 per 100,000 population, 9.2% of adultsIsrael: 3.9 per 100,000 population, 21.2% of adultsItaly: 5.3 per 100,000 population, 22.4% of adultsJamaica: 15.1 per 100,000 population, 11.5% of adultsJordan: 17 per 100,000 population, 34.1% of adultsJapan: 3.6 per 100,000 population, 17.5% of adultsKazakhstan: 12.7 per 100,000 population, 21.1% of adultsKenya: 28.3 per 100,000 population, 9.6% of adultsKyrgyz Republic: 12.7 per 100,000 population, 22.2% of adultsCambodia: 19.6 per 100,000 population, 18.6% of adultsKiribati: 1.9 per 100,000 population, 37.7% of adultsKorea, Rep.: 8.6 per 100,000 population, 18.6% of adultsKuwait: 15.4 per 100,000 population, 19.4% of adultsLao PDR: 17.9 per 100,000 population, 25.4% of adultsLebanon: 16.4 per 100,000 population, 46.9% of adultsLiberia: 38.9 per 100,000 population, 5.2% of adultsLibya: 21.3 per 100,000 population, 24.2% of adultsSt. Lucia: 29.8 per 100,000 population, 13.9% of adultsSri Lanka: 19.7 per 100,000 population, 20.7% of adultsLesotho: 31.9 per 100,000 population, 28% of adultsLithuania: 8.1 per 100,000 population, 31.4% of adultsLuxembourg: 4.1 per 100,000 population, 24.5% of adultsLatvia: 8.1 per 100,000 population, 34.6% of adultsMorocco: 17 per 100,000 population, 12.5% of adultsMoldova: 7.3 per 100,000 population, 28.8% of adultsMadagascar: 29.2 per 100,000 population, 25.6% of adultsMaldives: 1.6 per 100,000 population, 25.5% of adultsMexico: 12.8 per 100,000 population, 15.7% of adultsMarshall Islands: 5.7 per 100,000 population, 29.9% of adultsNorth Macedonia: 5.1 per 100,000 population, 39.6% of adultsMali: 22.7 per 100,000 population, 7.4% of adultsMalta: 4.1 per 100,000 population, 24.6% of adultsMyanmar: 20.4 per 100,000 population, 43.4% of adultsMontenegro: 7.6 per 100,000 population, 37.2% of adultsMongolia: 21 per 100,000 population, 29.5% of adultsMozambique: 30 per 100,000 population, 10.5% of adultsMauritania: 25.6 per 100,000 population, 9.9% of adultsMauritius: 12.2 per 100,000 population, 17.7% of adultsMalawi: 33.4 per 100,000 population, 8.9% of adultsMalaysia: 22.5 per 100,000 population, 16.9% of adultsNiger: 25.5 per 100,000 population, 7.4% of adultsNigeria: 20.7 per 100,000 population, 3.1% of adultsNetherlands: 4 per 100,000 population, 20.5% of adultsNorway: 2.1 per 100,000 population, 12.9% of adultsNepal: 16.3 per 100,000 population, 28.7% of adultsNew Zealand: 9.6 per 100,000 population, 9.3% of adultsOman: 10.6 per 100,000 population, 8.5% of adultsPakistan: 13 per 100,000 population, 17.9% of adultsPanama: 13.9 per 100,000 population, 4.8% of adultsPeru: 13.6 per 100,000 population, 12.4% of adultsPhilippines: 12 per 100,000 population, 19.9% of adultsPalau: 4.78 per 100,000 population, 23% of adultsPapua New Guinea: 12.6 per 100,000 population, 39.3% of adultsPoland: 9.4 per 100,000 population, 21.7% of adultsPortugal: 8.2 per 100,000 population, 28.6% of adultsParaguay: 22 per 100,000 population, 6.4% of adultsWest Bank and Gaza: 5.3 per 100,000 population, 35.5% of adultsQatar: 7.3 per 100,000 population, 12.5% of adultsRomania: 10.3 per 100,000 population, 29.7% of adultsRussian Federation: 12 per 100,000 population, 27% of adultsRwanda: 29.4 per 100,000 population, 10.1% of adultsSaudi Arabia: 35.9 per 100,000 population, 14.7% of adultsSenegal: 23.5 per 100,000 population, 5.4% of adultsSingapore: 2.1 per 100,000 population, 13.8% of adultsSolomon Islands: 16.5 per 100,000 population, 38.4% of adultsSierra Leone: 33 per 100,000 population, 11.3% of adultsEl Salvador: 20.9 per 100,000 population, 8.2% of adultsSerbia: 7.5 per 100,000 population, 39.7% of adultsSao Tome and Principe: 27.9 per 100,000 population, 8.3% of adultsSlovak Republic: 6.1 per 100,000 population, 29.5% of adultsSlovenia: 5.1 per 100,000 population, 20.9% of adultsSweden: 3.1 per 100,000 population, 20.3% of adultsEswatini: 33.5 per 100,000 population, 11.5% of adultsSeychelles: 11.3 per 100,000 population, 17.3% of adultsChad: 32.4 per 100,000 population, 7.4% of adultsTogo: 28.7 per 100,000 population, 5.8% of adultsThailand: 32.2 per 100,000 population, 17.8% of adultsTurkmenistan: 13.5 per 100,000 population, 5.4% of adultsTimor-Leste: 11.9 per 100,000 population, 48.8% of adultsTonga: 33 per 100,000 population, 32.1% of adultsTunisia: 16.5 per 100,000 population, 24.4% of adultsTurkiye: 6.7 per 100,000 population, 31.1% of adultsTanzania: 31.1 per 100,000 population, 7.7% of adultsUganda: 29.4 per 100,000 population, 7.5% of adultsUkraine: 10.2 per 100,000 population, 23.7% of adultsUruguay: 14.8 per 100,000 population, 19.3% of adultsUnited States: 12.7 per 100,000 population, 15.8% of adultsUzbekistan: 11.7 per 100,000 population, 16.3% of adultsViet Nam: 30.6 per 100,000 population, 21.1% of adultsVanuatu: 14.9 per 100,000 population, 24.9% of adultsSamoa: 13 per 100,000 population, 23.1% of adultsSouth Africa: 22.2 per 100,000 population, 23.7% of adultsZambia: 20.5 per 100,000 population, 14.3% of adultsZimbabwe: 41.2 per 100,000 population, 11% of adultsBDIISLKIRLBNLBRMKDMMRNORSGPTLSTONZWE

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted-0.4531.5e-9162
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted-0.4683.6e-10162
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income-0.4502.2e-9162
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income-0.4271.7e-8162

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 162 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.003 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from -0.473 (without TON) to -0.426 (without KIR). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: KIR (+0.024).

Fragile: this link may not hold up.
  • direction is not consistent across regions
  • much weaker within regions than across them (largely a between-region difference)

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific26-0.15
Europe & Central Asia48+0.11
Latin America & Caribbean21-0.28
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan20-0.15
Sub-Saharan Africa39-0.02

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third54-0.62
Middle third54-0.38
Richest third54-0.25

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians96-0.52
Muslims43-0.41

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France21-0.36
Never a European colony20-0.31
Spain16-0.39
United Kingdom51-0.47

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = -0.432 after dropping 1 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 16years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

Within countries over time, there is no link that is clearly more than chance (r = -0.040, comparing each country only with itself over the years, and each year only with the same year elsewhere). Whatever the cross-country picture shows, countries whose road traffic deaths moved did not tend to see their tobacco use move with it.

Across countries (adjusted)-0.450for comparison
Within countries+0.217each country vs itself
…and vs the same year elsewhere-0.040q = 0.679 · 160 countries
Year-on-year changes—q = —
Read with care.
  • Almost all of this indicator's variation is between countries, not within them, so the within-country estimate rests on a small part of the data.

800 country-years (one country in one year), 160 countries, 2000–2015, about 5 years each on average. Share of the variation that happens within countries over time: 10% for Road traffic deaths, 11% for Tobacco use. The margins of error allow for each country appearing many times, and for each year’s value being close to the year before.

Year-to-year changes are a cautious test, not a final answer. Looking only at changes from one year to the next removes each country’s own trends. But it also makes measurement mistakes louder, which pulls the results toward zero. A near-zero result here is weak evidence of no link, not proof.

With one measure years behind the other

0.10−0.1-40+10years Tobacco use trails Road traffic deaths →lag -4: r = -0.041 (n = 800)lag -3: r = -0.035 (n = 800)lag -2: r = -0.052 (n = 800)lag -1: r = -0.025 (n = 800)lag +0: r = -0.040 (n = 800)lag +1: r = -0.007 (n = 800)lag +2: r = -0.014 (n = 800)lag +3: r = -0.017 (n = 960)lag +4: r = 0.001 (n = 1,120)lag +5: r = -0.014 (n = 1,280)lag +6: r = -0.006 (n = 1,120)lag +7: r = 0.007 (n = 1,120)lag +8: r = -0.026 (n = 960)lag +9: r = -0.002 (n = 960)lag +10: r = -0.006 (n = 960)

Same year (lag 0): -0.040. A peak away from zero does not show which comes first. These series change slowly — this year’s value is close to last year’s. That makes the curve smooth and nearly symmetric, whatever produced the data. Even a sharp peak at one lag (a gap of some years) would not prove that one measure changes the other.

The data


per 100,000 population
% of adults		Years
Zimbabwe ZWE41.211%2019, 2024
Liberia LBR38.95.2%2019, 2024
Saudi Arabia SAU35.914.7%2019, 2024
Burundi BDI35.510.1%2019, 2024
Congo, Dem. Rep. COD34.912.3%2019, 2024
Eswatini SWZ33.511.5%2019, 2024
Malawi MWI33.48.9%2019, 2024
Tonga TON3332.1%2019, 2024
Sierra Leone SLE3311.3%2019, 2024
Chad TCD32.47.4%2019, 2024
Thailand THA32.217.8%2019, 2024
Guinea-Bissau GNB32.28.2%2019, 2024
Lesotho LSO31.928%2019, 2024
Tanzania TZA31.17.7%2019, 2024
Burkina Faso BFA3111.6%2019, 2024

World Bank, World Development Indicators
World Bank, World Development Indicators

Sources

Road traffic deaths

Mortality from road traffic injury (per 100,000 population)

World Health Organization · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

The World Bank's copy stops at 2019.

Tobacco use

Prevalence of current tobacco use (% of adults, age-standardised)

World Health Organization · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

Published every other year.

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2013–2024. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Road traffic deaths and Tobacco use

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Road traffic deaths changes Tobacco use, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Road traffic deaths or Tobacco use