placestats

Inequality-adjusted HDI vs. Tobacco use

Holds up after adjusting for income

Across 154 countries, Inequality-adjusted HDI and Tobacco use rise and fall together at r = +0.37 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). It holds up almost unchanged when only countries with similar income (GDP per person) are compared (r = +0.45, q = 0.014, allowing for the many pairs tested). Caution: direction is not consistent across regions.

Comparing countries across the middle half of inequality-adjusted hdi, 0.458 to 0.789 points, tobacco use is worse by 6.45% of adults at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 21.5% of adults.

Link before adjusting (r)+0.373p = 1.9e-6 · 154 countries
After adjusting for national income+0.451p = 5.0e-9 · likely range [+0.31, +0.57]
p, allowing for regions0.001standard error 0.067 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.014across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Inequality-adjusted HDI · index, 0 to 1link with income +0.94 · proxy
Tobacco use · % of adultslink with income +0.24 · independent

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Inequality-adjusted HDI · index, 0 to 1 →Tobacco use · % of adults →0.2520.9233.1%48.8%Afghanistan: 0.321 index, 0 to 1, 22.1% of adultsAlbania: 0.705 index, 0 to 1, 21.4% of adultsAndorra: 0.837 index, 0 to 1, 35.5% of adultsUnited Arab Emirates: 0.866 index, 0 to 1, 9% of adultsArgentina: 0.761 index, 0 to 1, 23.5% of adultsArmenia: 0.743 index, 0 to 1, 26.2% of adultsAustralia: 0.873 index, 0 to 1, 11.6% of adultsAustria: 0.861 index, 0 to 1, 23.8% of adultsAzerbaijan: 0.735 index, 0 to 1, 18.7% of adultsBurundi: 0.286 index, 0 to 1, 10.1% of adultsBelgium: 0.891 index, 0 to 1, 23.5% of adultsBenin: 0.316 index, 0 to 1, 7.4% of adultsBurkina Faso: 0.273 index, 0 to 1, 11.6% of adultsBangladesh: 0.482 index, 0 to 1, 32% of adultsBulgaria: 0.748 index, 0 to 1, 38.7% of adultsBahamas, The: 0.67 index, 0 to 1, 17.3% of adultsBosnia and Herzegovina: 0.689 index, 0 to 1, 37.1% of adultsBelarus: 0.771 index, 0 to 1, 29.2% of adultsBolivia: 0.578 index, 0 to 1, 12.3% of adultsBrazil: 0.594 index, 0 to 1, 11.9% of adultsBrunei Darussalam: 0.756 index, 0 to 1, 14.5% of adultsBhutan: 0.478 index, 0 to 1, 19.6% of adultsBotswana: 0.509 index, 0 to 1, 18% of adultsCanada: 0.867 index, 0 to 1, 11.2% of adultsSwitzerland: 0.894 index, 0 to 1, 23.1% of adultsChile: 0.723 index, 0 to 1, 26.7% of adultsChina: 0.67 index, 0 to 1, 22.8% of adultsCote d'Ivoire: 0.35 index, 0 to 1, 7.3% of adultsCameroon: 0.361 index, 0 to 1, 5.7% of adultsCongo, Dem. Rep.: 0.341 index, 0 to 1, 12.3% of adultsCongo, Rep.: 0.426 index, 0 to 1, 16.2% of adultsColombia: 0.593 index, 0 to 1, 8% of adultsComoros: 0.356 index, 0 to 1, 8.9% of adultsCabo Verde: 0.478 index, 0 to 1, 10.4% of adultsCosta Rica: 0.678 index, 0 to 1, 7.9% of adultsCyprus: 0.841 index, 0 to 1, 32.5% of adultsCzechia: 0.867 index, 0 to 1, 28.4% of adultsGermany: 0.89 index, 0 to 1, 22% of adultsDenmark: 0.909 index, 0 to 1, 15.7% of adultsAlgeria: 0.601 index, 0 to 1, 22.4% of adultsEcuador: 0.64 index, 0 to 1, 10.1% of adultsEgypt, Arab Rep.: 0.582 index, 0 to 1, 25% of adultsSpain: 0.819 index, 0 to 1, 27.6% of adultsEstonia: 0.841 index, 0 to 1, 26.1% of adultsEthiopia: 0.326 index, 0 to 1, 5.2% of adultsFinland: 0.891 index, 0 to 1, 21.4% of adultsFiji: 0.626 index, 0 to 1, 25.8% of adultsFrance: 0.836 index, 0 to 1, 33.6% of adultsGabon: 0.558 index, 0 to 1, 13.3% of adultsUnited Kingdom: 0.869 index, 0 to 1, 12.8% of adultsGeorgia: 0.754 index, 0 to 1, 33% of adultsGhana: 0.399 index, 0 to 1, 3.3% of adultsGambia, The: 0.329 index, 0 to 1, 11.1% of adultsGuinea-Bissau: 0.331 index, 0 to 1, 8.2% of adultsGreece: 0.825 index, 0 to 1, 30.2% of adultsGuatemala: 0.479 index, 0 to 1, 11.2% of adultsHonduras: 0.496 index, 0 to 1, 12.1% of adultsCroatia: 0.828 index, 0 to 1, 34.4% of adultsHaiti: 0.337 index, 0 to 1, 8% of adultsHungary: 0.819 index, 0 to 1, 30.8% of adultsIndonesia: 0.608 index, 0 to 1, 31% of adultsIndia: 0.475 index, 0 to 1, 22.6% of adultsIreland: 0.886 index, 0 to 1, 18.2% of adultsIran, Islamic Rep.: 0.643 index, 0 to 1, 11.9% of adultsIraq: 0.534 index, 0 to 1, 20.1% of adultsIceland: 0.923 index, 0 to 1, 9.2% of adultsIsrael: 0.813 index, 0 to 1, 21.2% of adultsItaly: 0.817 index, 0 to 1, 22.4% of adultsJamaica: 0.59 index, 0 to 1, 11.5% of adultsJordan: 0.637 index, 0 to 1, 34.1% of adultsJapan: 0.845 index, 0 to 1, 17.5% of adultsKazakhstan: 0.766 index, 0 to 1, 21.1% of adultsKenya: 0.456 index, 0 to 1, 9.6% of adultsKyrgyz Republic: 0.649 index, 0 to 1, 22.2% of adultsCambodia: 0.444 index, 0 to 1, 18.6% of adultsKiribati: 0.535 index, 0 to 1, 37.7% of adultsKorea, Rep.: 0.857 index, 0 to 1, 18.6% of adultsLao PDR: 0.462 index, 0 to 1, 25.4% of adultsLiberia: 0.326 index, 0 to 1, 5.2% of adultsSt. Lucia: 0.523 index, 0 to 1, 13.9% of adultsSri Lanka: 0.63 index, 0 to 1, 20.7% of adultsLesotho: 0.357 index, 0 to 1, 28% of adultsLithuania: 0.812 index, 0 to 1, 31.4% of adultsLuxembourg: 0.838 index, 0 to 1, 24.5% of adultsLatvia: 0.812 index, 0 to 1, 34.6% of adultsMorocco: 0.517 index, 0 to 1, 12.5% of adultsMoldova: 0.719 index, 0 to 1, 28.8% of adultsMadagascar: 0.319 index, 0 to 1, 25.6% of adultsMaldives: 0.602 index, 0 to 1, 25.5% of adultsMexico: 0.646 index, 0 to 1, 15.7% of adultsMarshall Islands: 0.626 index, 0 to 1, 29.9% of adultsNorth Macedonia: 0.723 index, 0 to 1, 39.6% of adultsMali: 0.281 index, 0 to 1, 7.4% of adultsMalta: 0.843 index, 0 to 1, 24.6% of adultsMyanmar: 0.477 index, 0 to 1, 43.4% of adultsMontenegro: 0.771 index, 0 to 1, 37.2% of adultsMongolia: 0.647 index, 0 to 1, 29.5% of adultsMozambique: 0.297 index, 0 to 1, 10.5% of adultsMauritania: 0.374 index, 0 to 1, 9.9% of adultsMauritius: 0.669 index, 0 to 1, 17.7% of adultsMalawi: 0.365 index, 0 to 1, 8.9% of adultsMalaysia: 0.707 index, 0 to 1, 16.9% of adultsNiger: 0.265 index, 0 to 1, 7.4% of adultsNigeria: 0.379 index, 0 to 1, 3.1% of adultsNetherlands: 0.892 index, 0 to 1, 20.5% of adultsNorway: 0.909 index, 0 to 1, 12.9% of adultsNepal: 0.437 index, 0 to 1, 28.7% of adultsNaoero: 0.599 index, 0 to 1, 34.8% of adultsNew Zealand: 0.853 index, 0 to 1, 9.3% of adultsOman: 0.75 index, 0 to 1, 8.5% of adultsPakistan: 0.364 index, 0 to 1, 17.9% of adultsPanama: 0.664 index, 0 to 1, 4.8% of adultsPeru: 0.633 index, 0 to 1, 12.4% of adultsPhilippines: 0.597 index, 0 to 1, 19.9% of adultsPalau: 0.616 index, 0 to 1, 23% of adultsPapua New Guinea: 0.423 index, 0 to 1, 39.3% of adultsPoland: 0.817 index, 0 to 1, 21.7% of adultsPortugal: 0.795 index, 0 to 1, 28.6% of adultsParaguay: 0.599 index, 0 to 1, 6.4% of adultsWest Bank and Gaza: 0.538 index, 0 to 1, 35.5% of adultsRomania: 0.758 index, 0 to 1, 29.7% of adultsRussian Federation: 0.758 index, 0 to 1, 27% of adultsRwanda: 0.399 index, 0 to 1, 10.1% of adultsSenegal: 0.34 index, 0 to 1, 5.4% of adultsSingapore: 0.823 index, 0 to 1, 13.8% of adultsSolomon Islands: 0.483 index, 0 to 1, 38.4% of adultsSierra Leone: 0.281 index, 0 to 1, 11.3% of adultsEl Salvador: 0.555 index, 0 to 1, 8.2% of adultsSerbia: 0.772 index, 0 to 1, 39.7% of adultsSao Tome and Principe: 0.478 index, 0 to 1, 8.3% of adultsSlovak Republic: 0.833 index, 0 to 1, 29.5% of adultsSlovenia: 0.885 index, 0 to 1, 20.9% of adultsSweden: 0.886 index, 0 to 1, 20.3% of adultsEswatini: 0.431 index, 0 to 1, 11.5% of adultsSeychelles: 0.755 index, 0 to 1, 17.3% of adultsChad: 0.252 index, 0 to 1, 7.4% of adultsTogo: 0.363 index, 0 to 1, 5.8% of adultsThailand: 0.677 index, 0 to 1, 17.8% of adultsTimor-Leste: 0.451 index, 0 to 1, 48.8% of adultsTonga: 0.682 index, 0 to 1, 32.1% of adultsTunisia: 0.595 index, 0 to 1, 24.4% of adultsTurkiye: 0.708 index, 0 to 1, 31.1% of adultsTuvalu: 0.578 index, 0 to 1, 33.4% of adultsTanzania: 0.391 index, 0 to 1, 7.7% of adultsUganda: 0.4 index, 0 to 1, 7.5% of adultsUkraine: 0.715 index, 0 to 1, 23.7% of adultsUruguay: 0.747 index, 0 to 1, 19.3% of adultsUnited States: 0.832 index, 0 to 1, 15.8% of adultsViet Nam: 0.641 index, 0 to 1, 21.1% of adultsVanuatu: 0.521 index, 0 to 1, 24.9% of adultsSamoa: 0.609 index, 0 to 1, 23.1% of adultsSouth Africa: 0.476 index, 0 to 1, 23.7% of adultsZambia: 0.361 index, 0 to 1, 14.3% of adultsZimbabwe: 0.406 index, 0 to 1, 11% of adultsANDAREBGRISLMLIMMRNERNZLPNGSRBTCDTLS

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted+0.3731.9e-6154
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted+0.3954.1e-7154
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income+0.4515.0e-9154
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income+0.4352.0e-8154

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 154 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: -0.078 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from +0.431 (without SLB) to +0.466 (without ISL). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: SLB (-0.020).

Fragile: this link may not hold up.
  • direction is not consistent across regions

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific28-0.12
Europe & Central Asia46-0.37
Latin America & Caribbean19+0.42
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan14+0.50
Sub-Saharan Africa39+0.31

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third52+0.63
Middle third51+0.44
Richest third51+0.09

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians94+0.48
Muslims35+0.52

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France20+0.68
Never a European colony17+0.09
Spain16+0.63
United Kingdom47+0.41

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = +0.451 after dropping 0 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 14years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

Within countries over time, there is no link that is clearly more than chance (r = +0.058, comparing each country only with itself over the years, and each year only with the same year elsewhere). Whatever the cross-country picture shows, countries whose inequality-adjusted hdi moved did not tend to see their tobacco use move with it.

Across countries (adjusted)+0.451for comparison
Within countries-0.652each country vs itself
…and vs the same year elsewhere+0.058q = 0.723 · 104 countries
Year-on-year changes—q = —
The direction flips. Comparing each country only with itself gives -0.65. Also taking out what happened to the whole world each year gives +0.06. So the first figure was picking up a trend both measures share with worldwide progress, not a link between them.
Read with care.
  • Almost all of this indicator's variation is between countries, not within them, so the within-country estimate rests on a small part of the data.
  • Much of the within-country association disappears once shared global year effects are removed, which points to a common worldwide trend rather than a country-level relationship.

520 country-years (one country in one year), 104 countries, 2010–2023, about 5 years each on average. Share of the variation that happens within countries over time: 1% for Inequality-adjusted HDI, 6% for Tobacco use. The margins of error allow for each country appearing many times, and for each year’s value being close to the year before.

Year-to-year changes are a cautious test, not a final answer. Looking only at changes from one year to the next removes each country’s own trends. But it also makes measurement mistakes louder, which pulls the results toward zero. A near-zero result here is weak evidence of no link, not proof.

With one measure years behind the other

0.10−0.100+5years Tobacco use trails Inequality-adjusted HDI →lag +0: r = 0.058 (n = 520)lag +1: r = 0.050 (n = 680)lag +2: r = 0.066 (n = 655)lag +3: r = 0.071 (n = 630)lag +4: r = 0.085 (n = 590)lag +5: r = 0.029 (n = 520)

Same year (lag 0): +0.058. A peak away from zero does not show which comes first. These series change slowly — this year’s value is close to last year’s. That makes the curve smooth and nearly symmetric, whatever produced the data. Even a sharp peak at one lag (a gap of some years) would not prove that one measure changes the other.

The data


index, 0 to 1
% of adults		Years
Iceland ISL0.9239.2%2023, 2024
Norway NOR0.90912.9%2023, 2024
Denmark DNK0.90915.7%2023, 2024
Switzerland CHE0.89423.1%2023, 2024
Netherlands NLD0.89220.5%2023, 2024
Finland FIN0.89121.4%2023, 2024
Belgium BEL0.89123.5%2023, 2024
Germany DEU0.8922%2023, 2024
Sweden SWE0.88620.3%2023, 2024
Ireland IRL0.88618.2%2023, 2024
Slovenia SVN0.88520.9%2023, 2024
Australia AUS0.87311.6%2023, 2024
United Kingdom GBR0.86912.8%2023, 2024
Czechia CZE0.86728.4%2023, 2024
Canada CAN0.86711.2%2023, 2024

United Nations Development Programme, Human Development Report 2025
World Bank, World Development Indicators

Sources

Inequality-adjusted HDI

Inequality-adjusted Human Development Index

United Nations Development Programme, Human Development Report Office · via Our World in Data · CC BY 3.0 IGO · updated annual · comparable from 2010 only

The HDI marked down for how unequally each of its three parts is spread within the country. The gap between this and the HDI is what inequality costs, and that is the number worth reading. The level itself is the HDI again, with its parts flagged the same way.

Tobacco use

Prevalence of current tobacco use (% of adults, age-standardised)

World Health Organization · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

Published every other year.

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2023–2024. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Inequality-adjusted HDI and Tobacco use

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Inequality-adjusted HDI changes Tobacco use, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Inequality-adjusted HDI or Tobacco use