placestats

Road traffic deaths vs. Vulnerable employment

Holds up after adjusting for income

Across 173 countries, Road traffic deaths and Vulnerable employment rise and fall together at r = +0.64 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). Comparing only countries with similar income (GDP per person) shrinks it to +0.16 (q = 0.020, allowing for the many pairs tested). Much of the first figure is that both measures rise with national income, but a very weak positive link remains.

Comparing countries across the middle half of road traffic deaths, 8.1 to 25.5 per 100,000 population, vulnerable employment is worse by 27.3% of employment at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 4.92% of employment.

Link before adjusting (r)+0.644p = 1.2e-21 · 173 countries
After adjusting for national income+0.159p = 0.037 · likely range [+0.01, +0.30]
p, allowing for regions0.001standard error 0.026 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.020across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Road traffic deaths · per 100,000 populationlink with income -0.71 · high
Vulnerable employment · % of employmentlink with income -0.87 · proxy

Both of these rise and fall closely with national income, so a strong link between them before adjusting was close to certain. Read the adjusted figure, not the first one.

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Road traffic deaths · per 100,000 population →Vulnerable employment · % of employment →1.664.60.456%90.2%Afghanistan: 15.9 per 100,000 population, 81.8% of employmentAngola: 26.1 per 100,000 population, 66.3% of employmentAlbania: 11.7 per 100,000 population, 46% of employmentUnited Arab Emirates: 8.9 per 100,000 population, 1.5% of employmentArgentina: 14.1 per 100,000 population, 22.3% of employmentArmenia: 20 per 100,000 population, 32.8% of employmentAustralia: 4.9 per 100,000 population, 9.12% of employmentAustria: 4.9 per 100,000 population, 7.85% of employmentAzerbaijan: 6.7 per 100,000 population, 53.8% of employmentBurundi: 35.5 per 100,000 population, 83.7% of employmentBelgium: 5.8 per 100,000 population, 11% of employmentBenin: 26.8 per 100,000 population, 78.5% of employmentBurkina Faso: 31 per 100,000 population, 80.6% of employmentBangladesh: 15.3 per 100,000 population, 57.3% of employmentBulgaria: 9.2 per 100,000 population, 6.92% of employmentBahrain: 5.2 per 100,000 population, 0.749% of employmentBahamas, The: 7.7 per 100,000 population, 15.9% of employmentBosnia and Herzegovina: 13.5 per 100,000 population, 18.1% of employmentBelarus: 7.6 per 100,000 population, 6.33% of employmentBelize: 22.6 per 100,000 population, 29.8% of employmentBolivia: 21.1 per 100,000 population, 62.7% of employmentBrazil: 16 per 100,000 population, 26.1% of employmentBarbados: 8.2 per 100,000 population, 18.8% of employmentBrunei Darussalam: 7.5 per 100,000 population, 4.48% of employmentBhutan: 16.2 per 100,000 population, 69% of employmentBotswana: 26.4 per 100,000 population, 25.6% of employmentCentral African Republic: 37.7 per 100,000 population, 79.4% of employmentCanada: 5.3 per 100,000 population, 9.56% of employmentSwitzerland: 2.2 per 100,000 population, 9.6% of employmentChile: 14.9 per 100,000 population, 20.9% of employmentChina: 17.4 per 100,000 population, 33.4% of employmentCote d'Ivoire: 24.1 per 100,000 population, 69.4% of employmentCameroon: 30.2 per 100,000 population, 67.6% of employmentCongo, Dem. Rep.: 34.9 per 100,000 population, 81.5% of employmentCongo, Rep.: 29.7 per 100,000 population, 75.9% of employmentColombia: 15.4 per 100,000 population, 43% of employmentComoros: 26.6 per 100,000 population, 56.8% of employmentCabo Verde: 26.8 per 100,000 population, 34.3% of employmentCosta Rica: 14.8 per 100,000 population, 23.4% of employmentCyprus: 5.8 per 100,000 population, 8.38% of employmentCzechia: 5.9 per 100,000 population, 13.5% of employmentGermany: 3.8 per 100,000 population, 4.34% of employmentDjibouti: 23.5 per 100,000 population, 30.3% of employmentDenmark: 3.7 per 100,000 population, 5.4% of employmentDominican Republic: 64.6 per 100,000 population, 38% of employmentAlgeria: 20.9 per 100,000 population, 25.6% of employmentEcuador: 20.1 per 100,000 population, 50.1% of employmentEgypt, Arab Rep.: 10.1 per 100,000 population, 23.9% of employmentSpain: 3.9 per 100,000 population, 10.1% of employmentEstonia: 4.5 per 100,000 population, 7.09% of employmentEthiopia: 28.2 per 100,000 population, 84.1% of employmentFinland: 3.9 per 100,000 population, 9.46% of employmentFiji: 13.5 per 100,000 population, 32.8% of employmentFrance: 5.1 per 100,000 population, 8.5% of employmentGabon: 23.9 per 100,000 population, 29.8% of employmentUnited Kingdom: 3.2 per 100,000 population, 11.5% of employmentGeorgia: 12.4 per 100,000 population, 42.4% of employmentGhana: 25.7 per 100,000 population, 60% of employmentGuinea: 29.7 per 100,000 population, 79.2% of employmentGambia, The: 29.6 per 100,000 population, 63.5% of employmentGuinea-Bissau: 32.2 per 100,000 population, 74.9% of employmentEquatorial Guinea: 27.2 per 100,000 population, 23.1% of employmentGreece: 8.3 per 100,000 population, 23.1% of employmentGuatemala: 22.9 per 100,000 population, 36.2% of employmentGuyana: 22.3 per 100,000 population, 25.3% of employmentHonduras: 16.1 per 100,000 population, 33.9% of employmentCroatia: 7.9 per 100,000 population, 6.35% of employmentHaiti: 18.8 per 100,000 population, 76% of employmentHungary: 7.7 per 100,000 population, 7.83% of employmentIndonesia: 11.3 per 100,000 population, 50% of employmentIndia: 15.6 per 100,000 population, 71.6% of employmentIreland: 3.1 per 100,000 population, 9.64% of employmentIran, Islamic Rep.: 21.5 per 100,000 population, 39.5% of employmentIraq: 27.3 per 100,000 population, 27.1% of employmentIceland: 2 per 100,000 population, 8.4% of employmentIsrael: 3.9 per 100,000 population, 7.7% of employmentItaly: 5.3 per 100,000 population, 14.3% of employmentJamaica: 15.1 per 100,000 population, 31.6% of employmentJordan: 17 per 100,000 population, 7.86% of employmentJapan: 3.6 per 100,000 population, 7.49% of employmentKazakhstan: 12.7 per 100,000 population, 24.8% of employmentKenya: 28.3 per 100,000 population, 63.8% of employmentKyrgyz Republic: 12.7 per 100,000 population, 29% of employmentCambodia: 19.6 per 100,000 population, 52.3% of employmentKorea, Rep.: 8.6 per 100,000 population, 17.7% of employmentKuwait: 15.4 per 100,000 population, 2.4% of employmentLao PDR: 17.9 per 100,000 population, 76.4% of employmentLebanon: 16.4 per 100,000 population, 19.4% of employmentLiberia: 38.9 per 100,000 population, 76.9% of employmentLibya: 21.3 per 100,000 population, 21.6% of employmentSt. Lucia: 29.8 per 100,000 population, 22% of employmentSri Lanka: 19.7 per 100,000 population, 39.2% of employmentLesotho: 31.9 per 100,000 population, 32.6% of employmentLithuania: 8.1 per 100,000 population, 10.4% of employmentLuxembourg: 4.1 per 100,000 population, 6.95% of employmentLatvia: 8.1 per 100,000 population, 8.62% of employmentMorocco: 17 per 100,000 population, 35.5% of employmentMoldova: 7.3 per 100,000 population, 58.6% of employmentMadagascar: 29.2 per 100,000 population, 84.4% of employmentMaldives: 1.6 per 100,000 population, 16.9% of employmentMexico: 12.8 per 100,000 population, 25.3% of employmentNorth Macedonia: 5.1 per 100,000 population, 12.3% of employmentMali: 22.7 per 100,000 population, 75.8% of employmentMalta: 4.1 per 100,000 population, 10.1% of employmentMyanmar: 20.4 per 100,000 population, 62.9% of employmentMontenegro: 7.6 per 100,000 population, 14.3% of employmentMongolia: 21 per 100,000 population, 38.4% of employmentMozambique: 30 per 100,000 population, 83.7% of employmentMauritania: 25.6 per 100,000 population, 53.3% of employmentMauritius: 12.2 per 100,000 population, 14.9% of employmentMalawi: 33.4 per 100,000 population, 59.9% of employmentMalaysia: 22.5 per 100,000 population, 21.9% of employmentNamibia: 34.8 per 100,000 population, 29.9% of employmentNiger: 25.5 per 100,000 population, 83.7% of employmentNigeria: 20.7 per 100,000 population, 66.5% of employmentNicaragua: 16.9 per 100,000 population, 38.9% of employmentNetherlands: 4 per 100,000 population, 13.4% of employmentNorway: 2.1 per 100,000 population, 4.17% of employmentNepal: 16.3 per 100,000 population, 77% of employmentNew Zealand: 9.6 per 100,000 population, 12.6% of employmentOman: 10.6 per 100,000 population, 3.81% of employmentPakistan: 13 per 100,000 population, 55.5% of employmentPanama: 13.9 per 100,000 population, 37.9% of employmentPeru: 13.6 per 100,000 population, 47.5% of employmentPhilippines: 12 per 100,000 population, 33.6% of employmentPapua New Guinea: 12.6 per 100,000 population, 71.2% of employmentPoland: 9.4 per 100,000 population, 15% of employmentPortugal: 8.2 per 100,000 population, 9.66% of employmentParaguay: 22 per 100,000 population, 36.1% of employmentWest Bank and Gaza: 5.3 per 100,000 population, 18.4% of employmentQatar: 7.3 per 100,000 population, 0.456% of employmentRomania: 10.3 per 100,000 population, 13% of employmentRussian Federation: 12 per 100,000 population, 4.93% of employmentRwanda: 29.4 per 100,000 population, 39.4% of employmentSaudi Arabia: 35.9 per 100,000 population, 1.66% of employmentSudan: 26.8 per 100,000 population, 39.7% of employmentSenegal: 23.5 per 100,000 population, 63% of employmentSingapore: 2.1 per 100,000 population, 9.3% of employmentSolomon Islands: 16.5 per 100,000 population, 68.7% of employmentSierra Leone: 33 per 100,000 population, 86% of employmentEl Salvador: 20.9 per 100,000 population, 30.8% of employmentSomalia, Fed. Rep.: 27.4 per 100,000 population, 46% of employmentSerbia: 7.5 per 100,000 population, 23.9% of employmentSao Tome and Principe: 27.9 per 100,000 population, 35% of employmentSuriname: 15.3 per 100,000 population, 18.4% of employmentSlovak Republic: 6.1 per 100,000 population, 11.8% of employmentSlovenia: 5.1 per 100,000 population, 10.6% of employmentSweden: 3.1 per 100,000 population, 6.87% of employmentEswatini: 33.5 per 100,000 population, 28.4% of employmentSyrian Arab Republic: 14.9 per 100,000 population, 38.9% of employmentChad: 32.4 per 100,000 population, 90.2% of employmentTogo: 28.7 per 100,000 population, 75% of employmentThailand: 32.2 per 100,000 population, 48% of employmentTajikistan: 15.7 per 100,000 population, 28% of employmentTurkmenistan: 13.5 per 100,000 population, 28.3% of employmentTimor-Leste: 11.9 per 100,000 population, 58.6% of employmentTonga: 33 per 100,000 population, 33.7% of employmentTrinidad and Tobago: 9.3 per 100,000 population, 21.2% of employmentTunisia: 16.5 per 100,000 population, 17.9% of employmentTurkiye: 6.7 per 100,000 population, 23.9% of employmentTanzania: 31.1 per 100,000 population, 83.7% of employmentUganda: 29.4 per 100,000 population, 74.4% of employmentUkraine: 10.2 per 100,000 population, 19% of employmentUruguay: 14.8 per 100,000 population, 24.4% of employmentUnited States: 12.7 per 100,000 population, 3.81% of employmentUzbekistan: 11.7 per 100,000 population, 33.3% of employmentSt. Vincent and the Grenadines: 7.4 per 100,000 population, 22% of employmentViet Nam: 30.6 per 100,000 population, 51.4% of employmentVanuatu: 14.9 per 100,000 population, 58% of employmentSamoa: 13 per 100,000 population, 41.6% of employmentSouth Africa: 22.2 per 100,000 population, 11.7% of employmentZambia: 20.5 per 100,000 population, 70.2% of employmentZimbabwe: 41.2 per 100,000 population, 68.2% of employmentAFGBHRCAFDOMISLLBRMDANAMNORPNGSAU

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted+0.6441.2e-21173
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted+0.7171.2e-28173
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income+0.1590.037173
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income+0.1920.012173

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 173 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.485 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from +0.119 (without PSE) to +0.177 (without SAU). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: PSE (-0.039).

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific23+0.21
Europe & Central Asia48+0.06
Latin America & Caribbean27+0.29
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan22+0.05
Sub-Saharan Africa45+0.02

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third58+0.29
Middle third57+0.07
Richest third58+0.17

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians104+0.11
Muslims49+0.23

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France25+0.40
Never a European colony21+0.11
Spain19+0.16
United Kingdom55+0.03

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = +0.146 after dropping 1 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 20years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

Within countries over time, there is no link that is clearly more than chance (r = -0.079, comparing each country only with itself over the years, and each year only with the same year elsewhere). Whatever the cross-country picture shows, countries whose road traffic deaths moved did not tend to see their vulnerable employment move with it.

Across countries (adjusted)+0.159for comparison
Within countries+0.064each country vs itself
…and vs the same year elsewhere-0.079q = 0.221 · 178 countries
Year-on-year changes-0.031q = 0.248
Read with care.
  • Almost all of the second indicator's variation is between countries, so the within-country estimate rests on a small part of the data.

3,560 country-years (one country in one year), 178 countries, 2000–2019, about 20 years each on average. Share of the variation that happens within countries over time: 13% for Road traffic deaths, 1% for Vulnerable employment. The margins of error allow for each country appearing many times, and for each year’s value being close to the year before.

Year-to-year changes are a cautious test, not a final answer. Looking only at changes from one year to the next removes each country’s own trends. But it also makes measurement mistakes louder, which pulls the results toward zero. A near-zero result here is weak evidence of no link, not proof.

With one measure years behind the other

0.10−0.1-100+10years Vulnerable employment trails Road traffic deaths →lag -10: r = -0.034 (n = 3,382)lag -9: r = -0.024 (n = 3,560)lag -8: r = -0.019 (n = 3,560)lag -7: r = -0.015 (n = 3,560)lag -6: r = -0.021 (n = 3,560)lag -5: r = -0.033 (n = 3,560)lag -4: r = -0.041 (n = 3,560)lag -3: r = -0.055 (n = 3,560)lag -2: r = -0.065 (n = 3,560)lag -1: r = -0.070 (n = 3,560)lag +0: r = -0.079 (n = 3,560)lag +1: r = -0.073 (n = 3,560)lag +2: r = -0.067 (n = 3,560)lag +3: r = -0.058 (n = 3,559)lag +4: r = -0.056 (n = 3,557)lag +5: r = -0.051 (n = 3,553)lag +6: r = -0.050 (n = 3,549)lag +7: r = -0.040 (n = 3,371)lag +8: r = -0.033 (n = 3,193)lag +9: r = -0.030 (n = 3,015)lag +10: r = -0.019 (n = 2,837)

Same year (lag 0): -0.079. A peak away from zero does not show which comes first. These series change slowly — this year’s value is close to last year’s. That makes the curve smooth and nearly symmetric, whatever produced the data. Even a sharp peak at one lag (a gap of some years) would not prove that one measure changes the other.

The data


per 100,000 population
% of employment		Years
Dominican Republic DOM64.638%2019, 2025
Zimbabwe ZWE41.268.2%2019, 2025
Liberia LBR38.976.9%2019, 2025
Central African Republic CAF37.779.4%2019, 2025
Saudi Arabia SAU35.91.66%2019, 2025
Burundi BDI35.583.7%2019, 2025
Congo, Dem. Rep. COD34.981.5%2019, 2025
Namibia NAM34.829.9%2019, 2025
Eswatini SWZ33.528.4%2019, 2025
Malawi MWI33.459.9%2019, 2025
Tonga TON3333.7%2019, 2025
Sierra Leone SLE3386%2019, 2025
Chad TCD32.490.2%2019, 2025
Thailand THA32.248%2019, 2025
Guinea-Bissau GNB32.274.9%2019, 2025

World Bank, World Development Indicators
World Bank, World Development Indicators

Sources

Road traffic deaths

Mortality from road traffic injury (per 100,000 population)

World Health Organization · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

The World Bank's copy stops at 2019.

Vulnerable employment

Vulnerable employment, total (% of total employment)

International Labour Organization · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

Self-employed workers and unpaid family workers, who have no employer and usually no protection. The ILO estimates it with a model for every country and year, which is why it is complete where surveys are not.

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2016–2025. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Road traffic deaths and Vulnerable employment

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Road traffic deaths changes Vulnerable employment, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Road traffic deaths or Vulnerable employment