placestats

Population growth vs. Religious attendance

Holds up after adjusting for income

A country is not a person. Countries where more people are counted as belonging to this group also tend to differ on the other measure, and that is all. It does not follow that the people in the group are the people with the different score. Making that leap is called the ecological fallacy: reading a pattern across places as a fact about individual people. It is the most common misuse of this kind of data. Religion also varies strongly with region, history and national income, so much of what looks religious here is really those. That is what the adjusted figures are for. The religion shares are estimates for two years only, and the survey questions are asked in rounds that can be ten years apart.

Across 105 countries, Population growth and Religious attendance rise and fall together at r = +0.50 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). Comparing only countries with similar income (GDP per person) shrinks it to +0.29 (q = 0.036, allowing for the many pairs tested). Much of the first figure is that both measures rise with national income, but a weak positive link remains.

Comparing countries across the middle half of religious attendance, 17.3% to 58.1% of respondents, population growth is 0.84% per year higher at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 0.566% per year.

Link before adjusting (r)+0.496p = 7.4e-8 · 105 countries
After adjusting for national income+0.285p = 0.003 · likely range [+0.10, +0.45]
p, allowing for regions0.058standard error 0.122 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.036across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Population growth · % per yearlink with income -0.50 · moderate
Religious attendance · % of respondentslink with income -0.66 · high

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Population growth · % per year →Religious attendance · % of respondents →-1.75%3.18%2.79%93%Albania: -1.17% per year, 14.8% of respondentsAndorra: 1.17% per year, 16% of respondentsArgentina: 0.339% per year, 36% of respondentsArmenia: 1.74% per year, 35.8% of respondentsAustralia: 1.53% per year, 17.5% of respondentsAustria: 0.328% per year, 26.8% of respondentsAzerbaijan: 0.432% per year, 13.9% of respondentsBelgium: 0.699% per year, 18.9% of respondentsBurkina Faso: 2.21% per year, 76.9% of respondentsBangladesh: 1.22% per year, 54.2% of respondentsBulgaria: -0.126% per year, 17.3% of respondentsBosnia and Herzegovina: -0.766% per year, 43.3% of respondentsBelarus: -0.512% per year, 19.9% of respondentsBolivia: 1.35% per year, 65% of respondentsBrazil: 0.383% per year, 59.6% of respondentsCanada: 0.939% per year, 16.4% of respondentsSwitzerland: 0.96% per year, 16.2% of respondentsChile: 0.48% per year, 31% of respondentsChina: -0.17% per year, 2.79% of respondentsColombia: 1.01% per year, 58.3% of respondentsCyprus: 0.914% per year, 50.2% of respondentsCzechia: -0.167% per year, 10% of respondentsGermany: -0.0304% per year, 19.2% of respondentsDenmark: 0.537% per year, 6.48% of respondentsAlgeria: 1.32% per year, 53.5% of respondentsEcuador: 0.848% per year, 61.3% of respondentsEgypt, Arab Rep.: 1.56% per year, 58.8% of respondentsSpain: 1.03% per year, 22.8% of respondentsEstonia: -0.428% per year, 8% of respondentsEthiopia: 2.55% per year, 93% of respondentsFinland: 0.471% per year, 11.1% of respondentsFrance: 0.246% per year, 12.4% of respondentsUnited Kingdom: 0.297% per year, 16.1% of respondentsGeorgia: 3.18% per year, 33.7% of respondentsGhana: 1.83% per year, 83.8% of respondentsGreece: 0.0848% per year, 44.5% of respondentsGuatemala: 1.52% per year, 63.4% of respondentsHong Kong SAR, China: -0.335% per year, 16.1% of respondentsCroatia: 0.258% per year, 33.7% of respondentsHaiti: 1.13% per year, 38.6% of respondentsHungary: -0.501% per year, 17.3% of respondentsIndonesia: 0.785% per year, 77.8% of respondentsIndia: 0.887% per year, 62.7% of respondentsIreland: 1.63% per year, 53.3% of respondentsIran, Islamic Rep.: 0.924% per year, 43.2% of respondentsIraq: 2.1% per year, 43.7% of respondentsIceland: 1.51% per year, 8.48% of respondentsItaly: -0.0629% per year, 40.7% of respondentsJordan: -0.279% per year, 56.4% of respondentsJapan: -0.492% per year, 12.3% of respondentsKazakhstan: 1.21% per year, 32.8% of respondentsKenya: 1.93% per year, 84.6% of respondentsKyrgyz Republic: 1.66% per year, 39.2% of respondentsKorea, Rep.: -0.129% per year, 22.8% of respondentsLebanon: 0.746% per year, 53.3% of respondentsLibya: 1.04% per year, 54% of respondentsLithuania: 0.0172% per year, 30% of respondentsLuxembourg: 1.46% per year, 22.7% of respondentsLatvia: -0.988% per year, 12.8% of respondentsMacao SAR, China: -0.16% per year, 9.5% of respondentsMorocco: 0.914% per year, 58.1% of respondentsMoldova: -1.75% per year, 27.8% of respondentsMaldives: 0.355% per year, 64.8% of respondentsMexico: 0.826% per year, 60.6% of respondentsNorth Macedonia: -0.189% per year, 40.1% of respondentsMali: 2.9% per year, 73.9% of respondentsMalta: 1.89% per year, 81.5% of respondentsMyanmar: 0.641% per year, 43.5% of respondentsMontenegro: -0.0635% per year, 36.7% of respondentsMongolia: 1.25% per year, 14.1% of respondentsMalaysia: 1.17% per year, 60.3% of respondentsNigeria: 2.06% per year, 90.3% of respondentsNicaragua: 1.31% per year, 54.2% of respondentsNetherlands: 0.522% per year, 14.3% of respondentsNorway: 0.69% per year, 11.8% of respondentsNew Zealand: 0.654% per year, 16.8% of respondentsPakistan: 1.56% per year, 60.9% of respondentsPeru: 1.04% per year, 57.1% of respondentsPhilippines: 0.811% per year, 81.8% of respondentsPoland: -0.338% per year, 64.3% of respondentsPuerto Rico (US): -0.554% per year, 53.5% of respondentsPortugal: 1.03% per year, 29.7% of respondentsWest Bank and Gaza: 2.33% per year, 58.5% of respondentsRomania: -0.166% per year, 46% of respondentsRussian Federation: -0.109% per year, 16.3% of respondentsRwanda: 2.17% per year, 78.2% of respondentsSingapore: 1.22% per year, 42.6% of respondentsSerbia: -0.568% per year, 20.1% of respondentsSlovak Republic: -0.152% per year, 36.1% of respondentsSlovenia: 0.168% per year, 23.8% of respondentsSweden: 0.254% per year, 9.65% of respondentsThailand: -0.0672% per year, 38.1% of respondentsTajikistan: 1.83% per year, 40.7% of respondentsTrinidad and Tobago: -0.0416% per year, 57.8% of respondentsTunisia: 0.58% per year, 43.5% of respondentsTurkiye: 0.42% per year, 39.5% of respondentsUkraine: 2.92% per year, 29.1% of respondentsUruguay: -0.0561% per year, 13.3% of respondentsUnited States: 0.522% per year, 39% of respondentsUzbekistan: 1.88% per year, 41.7% of respondentsViet Nam: 0.603% per year, 17.2% of respondentsKosovo: -1.1% per year, 48.7% of respondentsSouth Africa: 1.15% per year, 69% of respondentsZambia: 2.77% per year, 80.9% of respondentsZimbabwe: 1.88% per year, 84.8% of respondentsALBETHGEOISLLVAMDAMLIPOLUKRXKXZMB

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted+0.4967.4e-8105
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted+0.4812.0e-7105
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income+0.2850.003105
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income+0.3040.002105

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 105 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.211 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from +0.242 (without MLT) to +0.318 (without UKR). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: MLT (-0.044).

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific15+0.38
Europe & Central Asia49+0.10
Latin America & Caribbean14+0.45
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan12+0.31

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third35+0.15
Middle third35+0.30
Richest third35+0.20

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians62+0.27
Muslims27+0.24

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Never a European colony15+0.29
Spain12+0.39
United Kingdom23+0.19

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = +0.285 after dropping 0 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 0years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

Not enough history inside each country to look at this over time. That needs countries measured for several years in a row, and at least one of these measures is measured too rarely.

The data


% per year
% of respondents		Years
Georgia GEO3.18%33.7%2025, 2022
Ukraine UKR2.92%29.1%2025, 2022
Mali MLI2.9%73.9%2025, 2010
Zambia ZMB2.77%80.9%2025, 2010
Ethiopia ETH2.55%93%2025, 2022
West Bank and Gaza PSE2.33%58.5%2025, 2014
Burkina Faso BFA2.21%76.9%2025, 2010
Rwanda RWA2.17%78.2%2025, 2014
Iraq IRQ2.1%43.7%2025, 2022
Nigeria NGA2.06%90.3%2025, 2022
Kenya KEN1.93%84.6%2025, 2022
Malta MLT1.89%81.5%2025, 2010
Zimbabwe ZWE1.88%84.8%2025, 2022
Uzbekistan UZB1.88%41.7%2025, 2022
Ghana GHA1.83%83.8%2025, 2014

World Bank, World Development Indicators
Haerpfer, C. et al., World Values Survey; EVS, European Values Study

Sources

Population growth

Population growth (annual %)

World Bank · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

Religious attendance

Share attending religious services frequently

World Values Survey Association and European Values Study · via Our World in Data · Free for non-commercial use with attribution · updated irregular (survey waves, roughly every 5 years)

The share who attend religious services at least once a month. This measures taking part, not belief or belonging to a religion. Those are three different things, and they can differ sharply. A country can be almost entirely religious by belonging and yet rarely attend anything. No "better" direction is set, and none could be defended. Attendance describes how people live. It does not show whether a country is doing well, and calling either end the good one would be a claim this site has no basis for. The survey runs in waves, not every year, so data for each country are sparse and uneven.

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2010–2025. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Population growth and Religious attendance

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Population growth changes Religious attendance, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Population growth or Religious attendance