placestats

Out of school, primary vs. Slum share of urban population

Holds up after adjusting for income

Across 175 countries, Out of school, primary and Slum share of urban population rise and fall together at r = +0.57 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). Comparing only countries with similar income (GDP per person) shrinks it to +0.34 (q = 0.0025, allowing for the many pairs tested). Much of the first figure is that both measures rise with national income, but a weak positive link remains. Caution: direction is not consistent across regions.

Comparing countries across the middle half of out of school, primary, 0.92% to 9.19% of primary-age children, slum share of urban population is worse by 10.4% of urban population at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 4.97% of urban population.

Link before adjusting (r)+0.566p = 3.5e-16 · 175 countries
After adjusting for national income+0.341p = 4.2e-6 · likely range [+0.20, +0.47]
p, allowing for regions3.0e-5standard error 0.030 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.003across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Out of school, primary · % of primary-age childrenlink with income -0.45 · moderate
Slum share of urban population · % of urban populationlink with income -0.78 · high

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Out of school, primary · % of primary-age children →Slum share of urban population · % of urban population →0.00387%65.6%0%92.5%Aruba: 1.76% of primary-age children, 0% of urban populationAngola: 36.8% of primary-age children, 62.7% of urban populationAlbania: 0.488% of primary-age children, 2.7% of urban populationAndorra: 2.41% of primary-age children, 0% of urban populationUnited Arab Emirates: 0.00387% of primary-age children, 0.113% of urban populationArgentina: 0.735% of primary-age children, 14.5% of urban populationArmenia: 1.08% of primary-age children, 8.39% of urban populationAntigua and Barbuda: 1.71% of primary-age children, 2.65% of urban populationAustralia: 0.124% of primary-age children, 0.035% of urban populationAustria: 1.43% of primary-age children, 0.0466% of urban populationAzerbaijan: 0.0266% of primary-age children, 26.9% of urban populationBurundi: 26.5% of primary-age children, 36.8% of urban populationBelgium: 1.66% of primary-age children, 0% of urban populationBenin: 9.61% of primary-age children, 64% of urban populationBurkina Faso: 34.3% of primary-age children, 87.9% of urban populationBangladesh: 5.86% of primary-age children, 51.5% of urban populationBulgaria: 5.9% of primary-age children, 0.197% of urban populationBahrain: 4.75% of primary-age children, 0% of urban populationBosnia and Herzegovina: 2.1% of primary-age children, 0.313% of urban populationBelarus: 4.49% of primary-age children, 0.004% of urban populationBelize: 10.7% of primary-age children, 15.7% of urban populationBermuda: 3.41% of primary-age children, 0.0776% of urban populationBolivia: 9.25% of primary-age children, 46.6% of urban populationBrazil: 2.19% of primary-age children, 14.9% of urban populationBrunei Darussalam: 3.61% of primary-age children, 21.6% of urban populationBhutan: 10.5% of primary-age children, 44.7% of urban populationBotswana: 0.535% of primary-age children, 39.6% of urban populationCentral African Republic: 37.9% of primary-age children, 68.9% of urban populationCanada: 4.99% of primary-age children, 1.1% of urban populationSwitzerland: 0.143% of primary-age children, 0% of urban populationChile: 2.12% of primary-age children, 7.32% of urban populationCote d'Ivoire: 12.6% of primary-age children, 48.3% of urban populationCameroon: 3.76% of primary-age children, 32.7% of urban populationCongo, Rep.: 17.1% of primary-age children, 75.3% of urban populationColombia: 7.32% of primary-age children, 9.7% of urban populationComoros: 20.6% of primary-age children, 48.5% of urban populationCabo Verde: 41.8% of primary-age children, 46.4% of urban populationCosta Rica: 4.49% of primary-age children, 3.55% of urban populationCayman Islands: 5.17% of primary-age children, 5.48% of urban populationCyprus: 0.425% of primary-age children, 0.272% of urban populationCzechia: 0.809% of primary-age children, 0.0273% of urban populationGermany: 0.274% of primary-age children, 0% of urban populationDenmark: 0.893% of primary-age children, 0% of urban populationDominican Republic: 4.93% of primary-age children, 11.2% of urban populationAlgeria: 1.57% of primary-age children, 13.2% of urban populationEcuador: 4.72% of primary-age children, 57.8% of urban populationEgypt, Arab Rep.: 3.51% of primary-age children, 3.84% of urban populationSpain: 1.24% of primary-age children, 0.046% of urban populationEstonia: 3.39% of primary-age children, 0.345% of urban populationEthiopia: 22.5% of primary-age children, 64.3% of urban populationFinland: 1.77% of primary-age children, 0% of urban populationFiji: 2.39% of primary-age children, 9.4% of urban populationFrance: 0.204% of primary-age children, 0% of urban populationGabon: 28.8% of primary-age children, 38.8% of urban populationUnited Kingdom: 0.0698% of primary-age children, 0.163% of urban populationGeorgia: 6.17% of primary-age children, 7.08% of urban populationGhana: 4.77% of primary-age children, 33.5% of urban populationGuinea: 14.7% of primary-age children, 44% of urban populationGambia, The: 16.9% of primary-age children, 37.1% of urban populationGuinea-Bissau: 30.5% of primary-age children, 59% of urban populationEquatorial Guinea: 65.6% of primary-age children, 64.7% of urban populationGreece: 0.11% of primary-age children, 0.05% of urban populationGuatemala: 8.43% of primary-age children, 37.6% of urban populationGuyana: 18% of primary-age children, 11.3% of urban populationHonduras: 26.6% of primary-age children, 31.5% of urban populationCroatia: 1.81% of primary-age children, 0.527% of urban populationHungary: 2.81% of primary-age children, 7.2% of urban populationIndonesia: 0.877% of primary-age children, 19.4% of urban populationIndia: 0.119% of primary-age children, 5.41% of urban populationIreland: 1.81% of primary-age children, 8.5% of urban populationIran, Islamic Rep.: 0.103% of primary-age children, 44.7% of urban populationIceland: 1.82% of primary-age children, 0% of urban populationItaly: 2.06% of primary-age children, 0.02% of urban populationJamaica: 4.34% of primary-age children, 0.883% of urban populationJordan: 1.89% of primary-age children, 23.4% of urban populationJapan: 0.0684% of primary-age children, 2% of urban populationKazakhstan: 7.91% of primary-age children, 0.794% of urban populationKenya: 32.9% of primary-age children, 40.5% of urban populationKyrgyz Republic: 2.96% of primary-age children, 2.44% of urban populationCambodia: 3.69% of primary-age children, 42.3% of urban populationKiribati: 8.71% of primary-age children, 5.93% of urban populationKorea, Rep.: 0.0557% of primary-age children, 4.5% of urban populationKuwait: 7.47% of primary-age children, 0% of urban populationLao PDR: 10.4% of primary-age children, 54.8% of urban populationLebanon: 22.5% of primary-age children, 4.53% of urban populationLiberia: 38.3% of primary-age children, 60.5% of urban populationSt. Lucia: 7.01% of primary-age children, 0.441% of urban populationSri Lanka: 9.14% of primary-age children, 44.7% of urban populationLesotho: 32.2% of primary-age children, 25.6% of urban populationLithuania: 0.13% of primary-age children, 0.509% of urban populationLuxembourg: 0.256% of primary-age children, 0.0173% of urban populationLatvia: 2.74% of primary-age children, 0.593% of urban populationMorocco: 0.471% of primary-age children, 10.9% of urban populationMoldova: 0.463% of primary-age children, 6.5% of urban populationMadagascar: 3.4% of primary-age children, 65.7% of urban populationMaldives: 0.946% of primary-age children, 34.8% of urban populationMexico: 0.363% of primary-age children, 17.6% of urban populationMarshall Islands: 1.48% of primary-age children, 2.38% of urban populationNorth Macedonia: 3.79% of primary-age children, 0.278% of urban populationMali: 34% of primary-age children, 92.5% of urban populationMalta: 2.64% of primary-age children, 0.0375% of urban populationMyanmar: 1.41% of primary-age children, 58.3% of urban populationMontenegro: 0.218% of primary-age children, 8.77% of urban populationMongolia: 8.56% of primary-age children, 17.9% of urban populationMozambique: 1% of primary-age children, 55% of urban populationMauritania: 11.3% of primary-age children, 58.6% of urban populationMauritius: 0.785% of primary-age children, 48.7% of urban populationMalawi: 2.09% of primary-age children, 38% of urban populationMalaysia: 12% of primary-age children, 0.2% of urban populationNamibia: 0.865% of primary-age children, 41.4% of urban populationNiger: 40.4% of primary-age children, 70.4% of urban populationNigeria: 24.3% of primary-age children, 48.5% of urban populationNicaragua: 6.66% of primary-age children, 5.52% of urban populationNetherlands: 0.519% of primary-age children, 0% of urban populationNorway: 1.38% of primary-age children, 0% of urban populationNepal: 0.762% of primary-age children, 40.1% of urban populationNaoero: 6.6% of primary-age children, 0.597% of urban populationNew Zealand: 2.62% of primary-age children, 0% of urban populationOman: 5.76% of primary-age children, 0% of urban populationPakistan: 17.9% of primary-age children, 56% of urban populationPanama: 7.7% of primary-age children, 16.3% of urban populationPeru: 0.156% of primary-age children, 45.1% of urban populationPhilippines: 11.6% of primary-age children, 35.9% of urban populationPalau: 1.33% of primary-age children, 0.618% of urban populationPapua New Guinea: 4% of primary-age children, 22.3% of urban populationPoland: 0.0917% of primary-age children, 4.22% of urban populationPortugal: 0.508% of primary-age children, 0.059% of urban populationParaguay: 13.3% of primary-age children, 15.1% of urban populationWest Bank and Gaza: 9.56% of primary-age children, 19.5% of urban populationQatar: 4.62% of primary-age children, 0% of urban populationRomania: 15.6% of primary-age children, 2.52% of urban populationRussian Federation: 4.94% of primary-age children, 2.62% of urban populationRwanda: 0.97% of primary-age children, 38.3% of urban populationSaudi Arabia: 0.527% of primary-age children, 0.55% of urban populationSudan: 43.8% of primary-age children, 73.7% of urban populationSenegal: 24.5% of primary-age children, 46.4% of urban populationSingapore: 0.212% of primary-age children, 0% of urban populationSolomon Islands: 30.1% of primary-age children, 1.95% of urban populationSierra Leone: 0.888% of primary-age children, 49.3% of urban populationEl Salvador: 8.66% of primary-age children, 16.5% of urban populationSerbia: 3.33% of primary-age children, 1.42% of urban populationSao Tome and Principe: 2.88% of primary-age children, 82.4% of urban populationSuriname: 16.2% of primary-age children, 15.8% of urban populationSlovak Republic: 1.06% of primary-age children, 0.066% of urban populationSlovenia: 1.45% of primary-age children, 0.527% of urban populationSweden: 0.57% of primary-age children, 0.336% of urban populationEswatini: 3.83% of primary-age children, 17% of urban populationSint Maarten (Dutch part): 6.78% of primary-age children, 2.89% of urban populationSeychelles: 6.8% of primary-age children, 48.7% of urban populationSyrian Arab Republic: 21.8% of primary-age children, 41.1% of urban populationTurks and Caicos Islands: 0.133% of primary-age children, 0.631% of urban populationChad: 24.8% of primary-age children, 82% of urban populationTogo: 0.639% of primary-age children, 38.5% of urban populationThailand: 0.817% of primary-age children, 2% of urban populationTajikistan: 4.15% of primary-age children, 0.05% of urban populationTurkmenistan: 4.31% of primary-age children, 8.38% of urban populationTimor-Leste: 6.88% of primary-age children, 33.9% of urban populationTonga: 2.28% of primary-age children, 0.308% of urban populationTrinidad and Tobago: 7.16% of primary-age children, 8.63% of urban populationTunisia: 1.09% of primary-age children, 7.64% of urban populationTurkiye: 0.603% of primary-age children, 14.1% of urban populationTuvalu: 0.537% of primary-age children, 50.9% of urban populationTanzania: 16.4% of primary-age children, 70.1% of urban populationUganda: 4.12% of primary-age children, 52.7% of urban populationUkraine: 12.9% of primary-age children, 1.1% of urban populationUruguay: 0.0355% of primary-age children, 1.3% of urban populationUnited States: 3.98% of primary-age children, 0.0932% of urban populationUzbekistan: 0.655% of primary-age children, 7.1% of urban populationSt. Vincent and the Grenadines: 0.59% of primary-age children, 2.76% of urban populationViet Nam: 1.73% of primary-age children, 32.5% of urban populationVanuatu: 2.53% of primary-age children, 3.06% of urban populationSamoa: 1.81% of primary-age children, 34.6% of urban populationSouth Africa: 6.06% of primary-age children, 24.2% of urban populationZambia: 3.51% of primary-age children, 48.3% of urban populationZimbabwe: 10.5% of primary-age children, 54.9% of urban populationAREAUSCPVGNQGRCMDGMLIMMRSDNSLBSTP

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted+0.5663.5e-16175
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted+0.4677.3e-11175
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income+0.3414.2e-6175
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income+0.1650.029175

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 175 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.225 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from +0.293 (without GNQ) to +0.376 (without SLB). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: GNQ (-0.047).

Fragile: this link may not hold up.
  • direction is not consistent across regions

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific27-0.20
Europe & Central Asia49-0.17
Latin America & Caribbean29+0.14
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan17+0.08
Sub-Saharan Africa44+0.36

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third59+0.35
Middle third58+0.36
Richest third58+0.28

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians103+0.30
Muslims44+0.48

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France23+0.35
Never a European colony19+0.35
Spain19+0.50
United Kingdom54+0.08

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = +0.215 after dropping 22 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 23years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

Within countries over time, there is no link that is clearly more than chance (r = +0.120, comparing each country only with itself over the years, and each year only with the same year elsewhere). Whatever the cross-country picture shows, countries whose out of school, primary moved did not tend to see their slum share of urban population move with it.

Across countries (adjusted)+0.341for comparison
Within countries+0.263each country vs itself
…and vs the same year elsewhere+0.120q = 0.203 · 137 countries
Year-on-year changes—q = —
Read with care.
  • Almost all of the second indicator's variation is between countries, so the within-country estimate rests on a small part of the data.

1,192 country-years (one country in one year), 137 countries, 2000–2022, about 9 years each on average. Share of the variation that happens within countries over time: 21% for Out of school, primary, 9% for Slum share of urban population. The margins of error allow for each country appearing many times, and for each year’s value being close to the year before.

Year-to-year changes are a cautious test, not a final answer. Looking only at changes from one year to the next removes each country’s own trends. But it also makes measurement mistakes louder, which pulls the results toward zero. A near-zero result here is weak evidence of no link, not proof.

With one measure years behind the other

0.30−0.3-100+10years Slum share of urban population trails Out of school, primary →lag -10: r = 0.017 (n = 774)lag -9: r = 0.017 (n = 797)lag -8: r = -0.001 (n = 877)lag -7: r = 0.022 (n = 899)lag -6: r = 0.007 (n = 988)lag -5: r = 0.066 (n = 1,000)lag -4: r = 0.054 (n = 1,075)lag -3: r = 0.128 (n = 1,108)lag -2: r = 0.114 (n = 1,196)lag -1: r = 0.159 (n = 1,212)lag +0: r = 0.120 (n = 1,192)lag +1: r = 0.138 (n = 1,156)lag +2: r = 0.147 (n = 1,087)lag +3: r = 0.146 (n = 1,065)lag +4: r = 0.149 (n = 996)lag +5: r = 0.169 (n = 967)lag +6: r = 0.193 (n = 932)lag +7: r = 0.214 (n = 886)lag +8: r = 0.216 (n = 829)lag +9: r = 0.213 (n = 792)lag +10: r = 0.202 (n = 745)

Same year (lag 0): +0.120. A peak away from zero does not show which comes first. These series change slowly — this year’s value is close to last year’s. That makes the curve smooth and nearly symmetric, whatever produced the data. Even a sharp peak at one lag (a gap of some years) would not prove that one measure changes the other.

The largest value on this curve (+0.22 at lag +8) is higher than the same-year one by 0.10. That gap is not a finding. It is the largest of 21 closely related estimates, and picking the biggest of many tests always makes it look bigger. That is exactly why nothing on this site is ranked or chosen by lag.

The data


% of primary-age children
% of urban population		Years
Equatorial Guinea GNQ65.6%64.7%2015, 2022
Sudan SDN43.8%73.7%2019, 2022
Cabo Verde CPV41.8%46.4%2022
Niger NER40.4%70.4%2024, 2022
Liberia LBR38.3%60.5%2022
Central African Republic CAF37.9%68.9%2012, 2022
Angola AGO36.8%62.7%2023, 2022
Burkina Faso BFA34.3%87.9%2024, 2022
Mali MLI34%92.5%2023, 2022
Kenya KEN32.9%40.5%2022
Lesotho LSO32.2%25.6%2024, 2022
Guinea-Bissau GNB30.5%59%2010, 2022
Solomon Islands SLB30.1%1.95%2024, 2022
Gabon GAB28.8%38.8%2019, 2022
Honduras HND26.6%31.5%2024, 2018

World Bank, World Development Indicators
World Bank, World Development Indicators

Sources

Out of school, primary

Children out of school (% of primary school age)

UNESCO Institute for Statistics · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

Children of primary-school age not enrolled at any level. Treated as measuring the same thing as gross primary enrolment, which is on the site. They are two ways of asking whether children are in school, so their agreement is not a finding.

Slum share of urban population

Population living in slums (% of urban population)

UN-Habitat · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2010–2025. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Out of school, primary and Slum share of urban population

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Out of school, primary changes Slum share of urban population, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Out of school, primary or Slum share of urban population