placestats

Out of school, primary vs. Secondary enrollment

Holds up after adjusting for income

Across 182 countries, Out of school, primary and Secondary enrollment rise and fall together at r = -0.62 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). Comparing only countries with similar income (GDP per person) shrinks it to -0.42 (q = 0.0026, allowing for the many pairs tested). Much of the first figure is that both measures rise with national income, but a moderate negative link remains.

Comparing countries across the middle half of secondary enrollment, 75.8% to 103% gross, out of school, primary is better by 6.35% of primary-age children at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 5.46% of primary-age children.

Link before adjusting (r)-0.616p = 2.0e-20 · 182 countries
After adjusting for national income-0.416p = 5.6e-9 · likely range [-0.53, -0.29]
p, allowing for regions0.044standard error 0.164 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.003across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Out of school, primary · % of primary-age childrenlink with income -0.45 · moderate
Secondary enrollment · % grosslink with income +0.71 · high

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Out of school, primary · % of primary-age children →Secondary enrollment · % gross →0.00387%43.8%15.8%143%Aruba: 1.76% of primary-age children, 124% grossAngola: 36.8% of primary-age children, 51.5% grossAlbania: 0.488% of primary-age children, 108% grossAndorra: 2.41% of primary-age children, 102% grossUnited Arab Emirates: 0.00387% of primary-age children, 102% grossArgentina: 0.735% of primary-age children, 106% grossArmenia: 1.08% of primary-age children, 90.9% grossAntigua and Barbuda: 1.71% of primary-age children, 109% grossAustralia: 0.124% of primary-age children, 132% grossAustria: 1.43% of primary-age children, 101% grossAzerbaijan: 0.0266% of primary-age children, 91.1% grossBurundi: 26.5% of primary-age children, 23.1% grossBelgium: 1.66% of primary-age children, 143% grossBenin: 9.61% of primary-age children, 43.6% grossBurkina Faso: 34.3% of primary-age children, 30% grossBangladesh: 5.86% of primary-age children, 64.3% grossBulgaria: 5.9% of primary-age children, 94.8% grossBahrain: 4.75% of primary-age children, 98.8% grossBahamas, The: 15.9% of primary-age children, 79.5% grossBosnia and Herzegovina: 2.1% of primary-age children, 87.9% grossBelarus: 4.49% of primary-age children, 94.8% grossBelize: 10.7% of primary-age children, 86.5% grossBermuda: 3.41% of primary-age children, 74.4% grossBolivia: 9.25% of primary-age children, 90.5% grossBrazil: 2.19% of primary-age children, 104% grossBarbados: 17.6% of primary-age children, 104% grossBrunei Darussalam: 3.61% of primary-age children, 91.8% grossBhutan: 10.5% of primary-age children, 86.2% grossBotswana: 0.535% of primary-age children, 70.6% grossCentral African Republic: 37.9% of primary-age children, 15.8% grossCanada: 4.99% of primary-age children, 104% grossSwitzerland: 0.143% of primary-age children, 101% grossChile: 2.12% of primary-age children, 106% grossCote d'Ivoire: 12.6% of primary-age children, 65.3% grossCameroon: 3.76% of primary-age children, 44.8% grossCongo, Rep.: 17.1% of primary-age children, 50.5% grossColombia: 7.32% of primary-age children, 102% grossComoros: 20.6% of primary-age children, 54.8% grossCabo Verde: 41.8% of primary-age children, 96.4% grossCosta Rica: 4.49% of primary-age children, 122% grossCuracao: 27.9% of primary-age children, 89.9% grossCayman Islands: 5.17% of primary-age children, 84.8% grossCyprus: 0.425% of primary-age children, 107% grossCzechia: 0.809% of primary-age children, 97.6% grossGermany: 0.274% of primary-age children, 100% grossDominica: 3.95% of primary-age children, 103% grossDenmark: 0.893% of primary-age children, 126% grossDominican Republic: 4.93% of primary-age children, 76.4% grossAlgeria: 1.57% of primary-age children, 105% grossEcuador: 4.72% of primary-age children, 92.8% grossEgypt, Arab Rep.: 3.51% of primary-age children, 84.8% grossSpain: 1.24% of primary-age children, 119% grossEstonia: 3.39% of primary-age children, 109% grossEthiopia: 22.5% of primary-age children, 33.9% grossFinland: 1.77% of primary-age children, 142% grossFiji: 2.39% of primary-age children, 98.1% grossFrance: 0.204% of primary-age children, 104% grossGabon: 28.8% of primary-age children, 70.3% grossUnited Kingdom: 0.0698% of primary-age children, 112% grossGeorgia: 6.17% of primary-age children, 101% grossGhana: 4.77% of primary-age children, 75.7% grossGuinea: 14.7% of primary-age children, 38.6% grossGambia, The: 16.9% of primary-age children, 107% grossGreece: 0.11% of primary-age children, 105% grossGrenada: 4.94% of primary-age children, 101% grossGuatemala: 8.43% of primary-age children, 49.6% grossGuyana: 18% of primary-age children, 91.4% grossHong Kong SAR, China: 1.4% of primary-age children, 107% grossHonduras: 26.6% of primary-age children, 51.8% grossCroatia: 1.81% of primary-age children, 105% grossHungary: 2.81% of primary-age children, 107% grossIndonesia: 0.877% of primary-age children, 97.2% grossIndia: 0.119% of primary-age children, 79.6% grossIreland: 1.81% of primary-age children, 131% grossIran, Islamic Rep.: 0.103% of primary-age children, 85.1% grossIceland: 1.82% of primary-age children, 109% grossIsrael: 2.66% of primary-age children, 98.5% grossItaly: 2.06% of primary-age children, 101% grossJamaica: 4.34% of primary-age children, 84.5% grossJordan: 1.89% of primary-age children, 91.8% grossJapan: 0.0684% of primary-age children, 102% grossKazakhstan: 7.91% of primary-age children, 97.6% grossKenya: 32.9% of primary-age children, 84.3% grossKyrgyz Republic: 2.96% of primary-age children, 91.7% grossCambodia: 3.69% of primary-age children, 58.8% grossKiribati: 8.71% of primary-age children, 90.3% grossKorea, Rep.: 0.0557% of primary-age children, 96.3% grossKuwait: 7.47% of primary-age children, 95.4% grossLao PDR: 10.4% of primary-age children, 50.5% grossLebanon: 22.5% of primary-age children, 63.8% grossLiberia: 38.3% of primary-age children, 37.7% grossSt. Lucia: 7.01% of primary-age children, 87.9% grossSri Lanka: 9.14% of primary-age children, 88% grossLesotho: 32.2% of primary-age children, 59.4% grossLithuania: 0.13% of primary-age children, 105% grossLuxembourg: 0.256% of primary-age children, 109% grossLatvia: 2.74% of primary-age children, 101% grossMacao SAR, China: 10.8% of primary-age children, 94.7% grossMorocco: 0.471% of primary-age children, 90% grossMoldova: 0.463% of primary-age children, 99.3% grossMadagascar: 3.4% of primary-age children, 34.1% grossMaldives: 0.946% of primary-age children, 79.4% grossMexico: 0.363% of primary-age children, 103% grossMarshall Islands: 1.48% of primary-age children, 85.8% grossNorth Macedonia: 3.79% of primary-age children, 90.1% grossMali: 34% of primary-age children, 38.9% grossMalta: 2.64% of primary-age children, 103% grossMyanmar: 1.41% of primary-age children, 77% grossMontenegro: 0.218% of primary-age children, 93.9% grossMongolia: 8.56% of primary-age children, 96.8% grossMozambique: 1% of primary-age children, 37.2% grossMauritania: 11.3% of primary-age children, 36% grossMauritius: 0.785% of primary-age children, 90.7% grossMalawi: 2.09% of primary-age children, 36.6% grossMalaysia: 12% of primary-age children, 80.3% grossNamibia: 0.865% of primary-age children, 82% grossNiger: 40.4% of primary-age children, 19.9% grossNigeria: 24.3% of primary-age children, 46.9% grossNicaragua: 6.66% of primary-age children, 70.2% grossNetherlands: 0.519% of primary-age children, 138% grossNorway: 1.38% of primary-age children, 116% grossNepal: 0.762% of primary-age children, 90.4% grossNaoero: 6.6% of primary-age children, 94.5% grossNew Zealand: 2.62% of primary-age children, 114% grossOman: 5.76% of primary-age children, 95.1% grossPakistan: 17.9% of primary-age children, 48.3% grossPanama: 7.7% of primary-age children, 76.6% grossPeru: 0.156% of primary-age children, 108% grossPhilippines: 11.6% of primary-age children, 85.3% grossPalau: 1.33% of primary-age children, 95.7% grossPapua New Guinea: 4% of primary-age children, 52.1% grossPoland: 0.0917% of primary-age children, 108% grossPuerto Rico (US): 13.3% of primary-age children, 81.5% grossPortugal: 0.508% of primary-age children, 120% grossParaguay: 13.3% of primary-age children, 79.1% grossWest Bank and Gaza: 9.56% of primary-age children, 89.1% grossQatar: 4.62% of primary-age children, 99.6% grossRomania: 15.6% of primary-age children, 81.6% grossRussian Federation: 4.94% of primary-age children, 92.5% grossRwanda: 0.97% of primary-age children, 48.8% grossSaudi Arabia: 0.527% of primary-age children, 111% grossSudan: 43.8% of primary-age children, 43.5% grossSenegal: 24.5% of primary-age children, 44.1% grossSingapore: 0.212% of primary-age children, 103% grossSolomon Islands: 30.1% of primary-age children, 49% grossSierra Leone: 0.888% of primary-age children, 86.9% grossEl Salvador: 8.66% of primary-age children, 62.1% grossSan Marino: 6.13% of primary-age children, 60.4% grossSerbia: 3.33% of primary-age children, 89.8% grossSao Tome and Principe: 2.88% of primary-age children, 90.4% grossSuriname: 16.2% of primary-age children, 76.1% grossSlovak Republic: 1.06% of primary-age children, 93.2% grossSlovenia: 1.45% of primary-age children, 108% grossSweden: 0.57% of primary-age children, 132% grossEswatini: 3.83% of primary-age children, 82% grossSint Maarten (Dutch part): 6.78% of primary-age children, 111% grossSeychelles: 6.8% of primary-age children, 70.8% grossSyrian Arab Republic: 21.8% of primary-age children, 38.7% grossTurks and Caicos Islands: 0.133% of primary-age children, 120% grossChad: 24.8% of primary-age children, 23.5% grossTogo: 0.639% of primary-age children, 63.4% grossThailand: 0.817% of primary-age children, 92.1% grossTajikistan: 4.15% of primary-age children, 86.9% grossTurkmenistan: 4.31% of primary-age children, 94.6% grossTimor-Leste: 6.88% of primary-age children, 84.7% grossTonga: 2.28% of primary-age children, 92.4% grossTrinidad and Tobago: 7.16% of primary-age children, 95.7% grossTunisia: 1.09% of primary-age children, 90.3% grossTurkiye: 0.603% of primary-age children, 118% grossTuvalu: 0.537% of primary-age children, 90.7% grossTanzania: 16.4% of primary-age children, 28.2% grossUkraine: 12.9% of primary-age children, 86.2% grossUruguay: 0.0355% of primary-age children, 119% grossUnited States: 3.98% of primary-age children, 97.5% grossUzbekistan: 0.655% of primary-age children, 98.1% grossSt. Vincent and the Grenadines: 0.59% of primary-age children, 125% grossViet Nam: 1.73% of primary-age children, 93.4% grossVanuatu: 2.53% of primary-age children, 135% grossSamoa: 1.81% of primary-age children, 87.4% grossSouth Africa: 6.06% of primary-age children, 104% grossZambia: 3.51% of primary-age children, 56.8% grossZimbabwe: 10.5% of primary-age children, 52.4% grossBELCAFCPVCUWFINKENMDGMOZMWINERNLDSDN

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted-0.6162.0e-20182
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted-0.5958.3e-19182
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income-0.4165.6e-9182
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income-0.4511.9e-10182

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 182 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.200 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from -0.458 (without CPV) to -0.403 (without NER). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: CPV (-0.042).

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific29-0.45
Europe & Central Asia50-0.40
Latin America & Caribbean35-0.57
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan18-0.81
Sub-Saharan Africa41-0.20

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third61-0.37
Middle third60-0.38
Richest third61-0.55

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians106-0.30
Muslims43-0.66

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France23-0.47
Never a European colony19-0.68
Spain18-0.53
United Kingdom58-0.30

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = -0.401 after dropping 22 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 36years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

The link shows up within countries over time (r = -0.288) but mostly disappears in year-to-year changes (r = -0.144). That points to slow trends particular to each country, not the two measures moving together from year to year.

Across countries (adjusted)-0.416for comparison
Within countries-0.493each country vs itself
…and vs the same year elsewhere-0.288q = 2.0e-5 · 181 countries
Year-on-year changes-0.144q = 0.054
Read with care.
  • Much of the within-country association disappears once shared global year effects are removed, which points to a common worldwide trend rather than a country-level relationship.

3,247 country-years (one country in one year), 181 countries, 1990–2025, about 18 years each on average. Share of the variation that happens within countries over time: 12% for Out of school, primary, 24% for Secondary enrollment. The margins of error allow for each country appearing many times, and for each year’s value being close to the year before.

Year-to-year changes are a cautious test, not a final answer. Looking only at changes from one year to the next removes each country’s own trends. But it also makes measurement mistakes louder, which pulls the results toward zero. A near-zero result here is weak evidence of no link, not proof.

With one measure years behind the other

0.40−0.4-100+10years Secondary enrollment trails Out of school, primary →lag -10: r = 0.053 (n = 2,068)lag -9: r = 0.019 (n = 2,174)lag -8: r = -0.015 (n = 2,251)lag -7: r = -0.058 (n = 2,345)lag -6: r = -0.079 (n = 2,442)lag -5: r = -0.102 (n = 2,529)lag -4: r = -0.142 (n = 2,639)lag -3: r = -0.184 (n = 2,743)lag -2: r = -0.227 (n = 2,858)lag -1: r = -0.251 (n = 2,980)lag +0: r = -0.288 (n = 3,247)lag +1: r = -0.306 (n = 2,930)lag +2: r = -0.310 (n = 2,770)lag +3: r = -0.306 (n = 2,620)lag +4: r = -0.306 (n = 2,469)lag +5: r = -0.312 (n = 2,336)lag +6: r = -0.301 (n = 2,204)lag +7: r = -0.311 (n = 2,071)lag +8: r = -0.299 (n = 1,941)lag +9: r = -0.270 (n = 1,807)lag +10: r = -0.239 (n = 1,697)

Same year (lag 0): -0.288. A peak away from zero does not show which comes first. These series change slowly — this year’s value is close to last year’s. That makes the curve smooth and nearly symmetric, whatever produced the data. Even a sharp peak at one lag (a gap of some years) would not prove that one measure changes the other.

The data


% of primary-age children
% gross		Years
Sudan SDN43.8%43.5%2019
Cabo Verde CPV41.8%96.4%2022
Niger NER40.4%19.9%2024
Liberia LBR38.3%37.7%2022, 2020
Central African Republic CAF37.9%15.8%2012, 2017
Angola AGO36.8%51.5%2023
Burkina Faso BFA34.3%30%2024
Mali MLI34%38.9%2023
Kenya KEN32.9%84.3%2022, 2023
Lesotho LSO32.2%59.4%2024, 2017
Solomon Islands SLB30.1%49%2024, 2012
Gabon GAB28.8%70.3%2019
Curacao CUW27.9%89.9%2024
Honduras HND26.6%51.8%2024
Burundi BDI26.5%23.1%2025

World Bank, World Development Indicators
World Bank, World Development Indicators

Sources

Out of school, primary

Children out of school (% of primary school age)

UNESCO Institute for Statistics · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

Children of primary-school age not enrolled at any level. Treated as measuring the same thing as gross primary enrolment, which is on the site. They are two ways of asking whether children are in school, so their agreement is not a finding.

Secondary enrollment

School enrollment, secondary (% gross)

UNESCO Institute for Statistics · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2010–2025. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Out of school, primary and Secondary enrollment

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Out of school, primary changes Secondary enrollment, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Out of school, primary or Secondary enrollment