placestats

Food insecurity vs. Tobacco use

Holds up after adjusting for income

Across 140 countries, Food insecurity and Tobacco use rise and fall together at r = -0.42 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). It holds up almost unchanged when only countries with similar income (GDP per person) are compared (r = -0.39, q = 0.0053, allowing for the many pairs tested). Caution: direction is not consistent across regions.

Comparing countries across the middle half of tobacco use, 11.2% to 26.1% of adults, food insecurity is better by 14.4% of population at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 7.57% of population.

Link before adjusting (r)-0.417p = 3.0e-7 · 140 countries
After adjusting for national income-0.387p = 2.5e-6 · likely range [-0.52, -0.24]
p, allowing for regions0.007standard error 0.097 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.005across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Food insecurity · % of populationlink with income -0.83 · proxy
Tobacco use · % of adultslink with income +0.24 · independent

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Food insecurity · % of population →Tobacco use · % of adults →1.1%89.8%3.1%48.8%Afghanistan: 80.8% of population, 22.1% of adultsAlbania: 33% of population, 21.4% of adultsUnited Arab Emirates: 3.6% of population, 9% of adultsArgentina: 33.8% of population, 23.5% of adultsArmenia: 7.8% of population, 26.2% of adultsAustralia: 13.8% of population, 11.6% of adultsAustria: 4.7% of population, 23.8% of adultsAzerbaijan: 14% of population, 18.7% of adultsBurundi: 70.8% of population, 10.1% of adultsBelgium: 8.1% of population, 23.5% of adultsBenin: 65.6% of population, 7.4% of adultsBurkina Faso: 41.4% of population, 11.6% of adultsBulgaria: 11.6% of population, 38.7% of adultsBahamas, The: 17.2% of population, 17.3% of adultsBosnia and Herzegovina: 9.9% of population, 37.1% of adultsBelarus: 1.1% of population, 29.2% of adultsBelize: 45.5% of population, 8.5% of adultsBrazil: 13.5% of population, 11.9% of adultsBotswana: 53.9% of population, 18% of adultsCanada: 10.2% of population, 11.2% of adultsSwitzerland: 2% of population, 23.1% of adultsChile: 19.2% of population, 26.7% of adultsCote d'Ivoire: 38.4% of population, 7.3% of adultsCameroon: 61.2% of population, 5.7% of adultsCongo, Dem. Rep.: 81.5% of population, 12.3% of adultsColombia: 27.8% of population, 8% of adultsComoros: 79.7% of population, 8.9% of adultsCabo Verde: 32.1% of population, 10.4% of adultsCosta Rica: 15.4% of population, 7.9% of adultsCyprus: 1.4% of population, 32.5% of adultsCzechia: 10% of population, 28.4% of adultsGermany: 4.1% of population, 22% of adultsDenmark: 6.9% of population, 15.7% of adultsAlgeria: 17.6% of population, 22.4% of adultsEcuador: 33.3% of population, 10.1% of adultsEgypt, Arab Rep.: 30.8% of population, 25% of adultsSpain: 6.5% of population, 27.6% of adultsEstonia: 10.8% of population, 26.1% of adultsEthiopia: 61.4% of population, 5.2% of adultsFinland: 13.4% of population, 21.4% of adultsFiji: 29.2% of population, 25.8% of adultsFrance: 8.4% of population, 33.6% of adultsUnited Kingdom: 6.9% of population, 12.8% of adultsGeorgia: 26.6% of population, 33% of adultsGhana: 44.5% of population, 3.3% of adultsGambia, The: 54.8% of population, 11.1% of adultsGuinea-Bissau: 62.5% of population, 8.2% of adultsGreece: 6.6% of population, 30.2% of adultsGuatemala: 48.8% of population, 11.2% of adultsGuyana: 25.5% of population, 11.7% of adultsHonduras: 41.3% of population, 12.1% of adultsCroatia: 6% of population, 34.4% of adultsHaiti: 83.2% of population, 8% of adultsHungary: 15.6% of population, 30.8% of adultsIndonesia: 4.5% of population, 31% of adultsIreland: 4.8% of population, 18.2% of adultsIran, Islamic Rep.: 38.8% of population, 11.9% of adultsIceland: 7.8% of population, 9.2% of adultsIsrael: 9.2% of population, 21.2% of adultsItaly: 1.7% of population, 22.4% of adultsJamaica: 56.4% of population, 11.5% of adultsJapan: 5.8% of population, 17.5% of adultsKazakhstan: 2% of population, 21.1% of adultsKenya: 73.9% of population, 9.6% of adultsKyrgyz Republic: 7% of population, 22.2% of adultsCambodia: 40% of population, 18.6% of adultsKiribati: 42.9% of population, 37.7% of adultsKorea, Rep.: 5.4% of population, 18.6% of adultsKuwait: 8.4% of population, 19.4% of adultsLao PDR: 35.6% of population, 25.4% of adultsLebanon: 42.4% of population, 46.9% of adultsLiberia: 80.8% of population, 5.2% of adultsLibya: 35.1% of population, 24.2% of adultsSt. Lucia: 22.2% of population, 13.9% of adultsSri Lanka: 11.2% of population, 20.7% of adultsLesotho: 59.9% of population, 28% of adultsLithuania: 6.5% of population, 31.4% of adultsLuxembourg: 2.6% of population, 24.5% of adultsLatvia: 11.2% of population, 34.6% of adultsMoldova: 25.1% of population, 28.8% of adultsMadagascar: 72.6% of population, 25.6% of adultsMaldives: 13.4% of population, 25.5% of adultsMexico: 19.3% of population, 15.7% of adultsNorth Macedonia: 15.2% of population, 39.6% of adultsMali: 20.6% of population, 7.4% of adultsMalta: 9.2% of population, 24.6% of adultsMyanmar: 32.7% of population, 43.4% of adultsMontenegro: 10.4% of population, 37.2% of adultsMongolia: 4.8% of population, 29.5% of adultsMauritania: 66.3% of population, 9.9% of adultsMauritius: 31.1% of population, 17.7% of adultsMalawi: 81.7% of population, 8.9% of adultsMalaysia: 16.7% of population, 16.9% of adultsNiger: 50.9% of population, 7.4% of adultsNigeria: 74.8% of population, 3.1% of adultsNetherlands: 7.5% of population, 20.5% of adultsNorway: 7.8% of population, 12.9% of adultsNepal: 36.6% of population, 28.7% of adultsNaoero: 29.9% of population, 34.8% of adultsNew Zealand: 17.3% of population, 9.3% of adultsPakistan: 42.1% of population, 17.9% of adultsPeru: 41% of population, 12.4% of adultsPhilippines: 32.9% of population, 19.9% of adultsPalau: 28.1% of population, 23% of adultsPapua New Guinea: 57.3% of population, 39.3% of adultsPoland: 3.4% of population, 21.7% of adultsPortugal: 11.9% of population, 28.6% of adultsParaguay: 26.2% of population, 6.4% of adultsWest Bank and Gaza: 27% of population, 35.5% of adultsRomania: 18.6% of population, 29.7% of adultsRussian Federation: 2.8% of population, 27% of adultsSenegal: 29.1% of population, 5.4% of adultsSingapore: 9.5% of population, 13.8% of adultsSierra Leone: 89.8% of population, 11.3% of adultsEl Salvador: 45.5% of population, 8.2% of adultsSerbia: 9.5% of population, 39.7% of adultsSao Tome and Principe: 54.6% of population, 8.3% of adultsSlovak Republic: 7.5% of population, 29.5% of adultsSlovenia: 8.2% of population, 20.9% of adultsSweden: 6.9% of population, 20.3% of adultsEswatini: 59% of population, 11.5% of adultsSeychelles: 14.3% of population, 17.3% of adultsChad: 66.3% of population, 7.4% of adultsTogo: 58.5% of population, 5.8% of adultsThailand: 5.4% of population, 17.8% of adultsTimor-Leste: 53.7% of population, 48.8% of adultsTonga: 14.8% of population, 32.1% of adultsTunisia: 25.4% of population, 24.4% of adultsTanzania: 58% of population, 7.7% of adultsUganda: 54.6% of population, 7.5% of adultsUkraine: 32.5% of population, 23.7% of adultsUruguay: 16.2% of population, 19.3% of adultsUnited States: 10.3% of population, 15.8% of adultsUzbekistan: 24.4% of population, 16.3% of adultsViet Nam: 10.7% of population, 21.1% of adultsVanuatu: 23.3% of population, 24.9% of adultsSamoa: 18.6% of population, 23.1% of adultsSouth Africa: 20.7% of population, 23.7% of adultsZambia: 45.3% of population, 14.3% of adultsZimbabwe: 68.8% of population, 11% of adultsAREBGRCRIHTIISLLBNLBRMKDNGAPNGSRBTLS

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted-0.4173.0e-7140
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted-0.4473.0e-8140
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income-0.3872.5e-6140
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income-0.3784.4e-6140

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 140 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.030 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from -0.420 (without MLI) to -0.370 (without NGA). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: MLI (-0.033).

Fragile: this link may not hold up.
  • direction is not consistent across regions
  • much weaker within regions than across them (largely a between-region difference)

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific23+0.15
Europe & Central Asia45-0.11
Latin America & Caribbean19-0.03
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan13-0.20
Sub-Saharan Africa35-0.08

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third47-0.31
Middle third46-0.42
Richest third47-0.30

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians89-0.46
Muslims32-0.25

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France19+0.04
Never a European colony15-0.34
Spain13+0.06
United Kingdom43-0.57

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = -0.407 after dropping 1 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

Loading…

Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 0years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

Not enough history inside each country to look at this over time. That needs countries measured for several years in a row, and at least one of these measures is measured too rarely.

The data


% of population
% of adults		Years
Sierra Leone SLE89.8%11.3%2023, 2024
Haiti HTI83.2%8%2023, 2024
Malawi MWI81.7%8.9%2023, 2024
Congo, Dem. Rep. COD81.5%12.3%2023, 2024
Liberia LBR80.8%5.2%2023, 2024
Afghanistan AFG80.8%22.1%2023, 2024
Comoros COM79.7%8.9%2023, 2024
Nigeria NGA74.8%3.1%2023, 2024
Kenya KEN73.9%9.6%2023, 2024
Madagascar MDG72.6%25.6%2023, 2024
Burundi BDI70.8%10.1%2023, 2024
Zimbabwe ZWE68.8%11%2023, 2024
Chad TCD66.3%7.4%2023, 2024
Mauritania MRT66.3%9.9%2023, 2024
Benin BEN65.6%7.4%2023, 2024

World Bank, World Development Indicators
World Bank, World Development Indicators

Sources

Food insecurity

Prevalence of moderate or severe food insecurity in the population (%)

Food and Agriculture Organization, Food Insecurity Experience Scale · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

Asked of people, in a survey about running out of food, and reported as a three-year average from 2015. It is the one measure of hunger here that comes from what people say they went through, rather than from a model.

Tobacco use

Prevalence of current tobacco use (% of adults, age-standardised)

World Health Organization · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

Published every other year.

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2017–2024. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Food insecurity and Tobacco use

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Food insecurity changes Tobacco use, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Food insecurity or Tobacco use