placestats

Fertility rate vs. Gender Inequality Index

Fades after adjusting for income

Across 169 countries, Fertility rate and Gender Inequality Index rise and fall together at r = +0.81 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). Comparing only countries with similar income (GDP per person) shrinks it to +0.33, which could easily be chance (q = 0.089, allowing for the many pairs tested, and allowing for countries in the same region being alike). So the first figure mostly shows richer countries differing from poorer ones, not a link between these two things.

Comparing countries across the middle half of gender inequality index, 0.157 to 0.49 points, fertility rate is 1.68 births per woman higher at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 0.795 births per woman.

Link before adjusting (r)+0.812p = 7.8e-41 · 169 countries
After adjusting for national income+0.327p = 1.5e-5 · likely range [+0.18, +0.46]
p, allowing for regions0.000standard error 0.039 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.089across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Fertility rate · births per womanlink with income -0.81 · proxy
Gender Inequality Index · index, 0 to 1link with income -0.89 · proxy

Both of these rise and fall closely with national income, so a strong link between them before adjusting was close to certain. Read the adjusted figure, not the first one.

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Fertility rate · births per woman →Gender Inequality Index · index, 0 to 1 →0.7486.030.0030.677Afghanistan: 4.76 births per woman, 0.661 index, 0 to 1Angola: 5.05 births per woman, 0.515 index, 0 to 1Albania: 1.34 births per woman, 0.107 index, 0 to 1United Arab Emirates: 1.21 births per woman, 0.04 index, 0 to 1Argentina: 1.5 births per woman, 0.264 index, 0 to 1Armenia: 1.7 births per woman, 0.18 index, 0 to 1Antigua and Barbuda: 1.58 births per woman, 0.24 index, 0 to 1Australia: 1.48 births per woman, 0.056 index, 0 to 1Austria: 1.31 births per woman, 0.033 index, 0 to 1Azerbaijan: 1.43 births per woman, 0.315 index, 0 to 1Burundi: 4.79 births per woman, 0.501 index, 0 to 1Belgium: 1.44 births per woman, 0.031 index, 0 to 1Benin: 4.48 births per woman, 0.573 index, 0 to 1Burkina Faso: 4.11 births per woman, 0.555 index, 0 to 1Bangladesh: 2.14 births per woman, 0.487 index, 0 to 1Bulgaria: 1.72 births per woman, 0.208 index, 0 to 1Bahrain: 1.8 births per woman, 0.165 index, 0 to 1Bahamas, The: 1.37 births per woman, 0.325 index, 0 to 1Bosnia and Herzegovina: 1.49 births per woman, 0.157 index, 0 to 1Belarus: 1.22 births per woman, 0.08 index, 0 to 1Belize: 2.02 births per woman, 0.428 index, 0 to 1Bolivia: 2.52 births per woman, 0.419 index, 0 to 1Brazil: 1.61 births per woman, 0.39 index, 0 to 1Barbados: 1.71 births per woman, 0.297 index, 0 to 1Brunei Darussalam: 1.73 births per woman, 0.257 index, 0 to 1Bhutan: 1.45 births per woman, 0.278 index, 0 to 1Botswana: 2.7 births per woman, 0.49 index, 0 to 1Canada: 1.25 births per woman, 0.052 index, 0 to 1Switzerland: 1.29 births per woman, 0.01 index, 0 to 1Chile: 1.14 births per woman, 0.102 index, 0 to 1China: 1.01 births per woman, 0.132 index, 0 to 1Cote d'Ivoire: 4.23 births per woman, 0.589 index, 0 to 1Cameroon: 4.26 births per woman, 0.558 index, 0 to 1Congo, Dem. Rep.: 5.98 births per woman, 0.604 index, 0 to 1Congo, Rep.: 4.11 births per woman, 0.565 index, 0 to 1Colombia: 1.63 births per woman, 0.393 index, 0 to 1Comoros: 3.82 births per woman, 0.501 index, 0 to 1Cabo Verde: 1.51 births per woman, 0.298 index, 0 to 1Costa Rica: 1.32 births per woman, 0.217 index, 0 to 1Cyprus: 1.38 births per woman, 0.252 index, 0 to 1Czechia: 1.36 births per woman, 0.088 index, 0 to 1Germany: 1.36 births per woman, 0.057 index, 0 to 1Djibouti: 2.62 births per woman, 0.481 index, 0 to 1Denmark: 1.47 births per woman, 0.003 index, 0 to 1Dominican Republic: 2.22 births per woman, 0.417 index, 0 to 1Algeria: 2.72 births per woman, 0.443 index, 0 to 1Ecuador: 1.81 births per woman, 0.358 index, 0 to 1Egypt, Arab Rep.: 2.73 births per woman, 0.398 index, 0 to 1Spain: 1.1 births per woman, 0.043 index, 0 to 1Estonia: 1.18 births per woman, 0.061 index, 0 to 1Ethiopia: 3.91 births per woman, 0.497 index, 0 to 1Finland: 1.25 births per woman, 0.021 index, 0 to 1Fiji: 2.27 births per woman, 0.35 index, 0 to 1France: 1.61 births per woman, 0.034 index, 0 to 1Gabon: 3.59 births per woman, 0.505 index, 0 to 1United Kingdom: 1.55 births per woman, 0.083 index, 0 to 1Georgia: 1.8 births per woman, 0.257 index, 0 to 1Ghana: 3.34 births per woman, 0.514 index, 0 to 1Guinea: 4.13 births per woman, 0.609 index, 0 to 1Gambia, The: 3.91 births per woman, 0.578 index, 0 to 1Guinea-Bissau: 3.76 births per woman, 0.632 index, 0 to 1Greece: 1.24 births per woman, 0.103 index, 0 to 1Grenada: 1.47 births per woman, 0.226 index, 0 to 1Guatemala: 2.29 births per woman, 0.48 index, 0 to 1Guyana: 2.4 births per woman, 0.427 index, 0 to 1Honduras: 2.48 births per woman, 0.437 index, 0 to 1Croatia: 1.46 births per woman, 0.074 index, 0 to 1Haiti: 2.63 births per woman, 0.618 index, 0 to 1Hungary: 1.41 births per woman, 0.213 index, 0 to 1Indonesia: 2.12 births per woman, 0.423 index, 0 to 1India: 1.96 births per woman, 0.403 index, 0 to 1Ireland: 1.47 births per woman, 0.054 index, 0 to 1Iran, Islamic Rep.: 1.68 births per woman, 0.482 index, 0 to 1Iraq: 3.22 births per woman, 0.558 index, 0 to 1Iceland: 1.56 births per woman, 0.024 index, 0 to 1Israel: 2.87 births per woman, 0.08 index, 0 to 1Italy: 1.18 births per woman, 0.043 index, 0 to 1Jamaica: 1.35 births per woman, 0.358 index, 0 to 1Jordan: 2.6 births per woman, 0.433 index, 0 to 1Japan: 1.15 births per woman, 0.059 index, 0 to 1Kazakhstan: 2.98 births per woman, 0.182 index, 0 to 1Kenya: 3.17 births per woman, 0.526 index, 0 to 1Kyrgyz Republic: 2.6 births per woman, 0.34 index, 0 to 1Cambodia: 2.55 births per woman, 0.506 index, 0 to 1Korea, Rep.: 0.748 births per woman, 0.038 index, 0 to 1Kuwait: 1.56 births per woman, 0.188 index, 0 to 1Lao PDR: 2.4 births per woman, 0.475 index, 0 to 1Lebanon: 2.23 births per woman, 0.36 index, 0 to 1Liberia: 3.86 births per woman, 0.646 index, 0 to 1Libya: 2.3 births per woman, 0.253 index, 0 to 1St. Lucia: 1.39 births per woman, 0.327 index, 0 to 1Sri Lanka: 1.95 births per woman, 0.367 index, 0 to 1Lesotho: 2.66 births per woman, 0.534 index, 0 to 1Lithuania: 1.11 births per woman, 0.07 index, 0 to 1Luxembourg: 1.25 births per woman, 0.044 index, 0 to 1Latvia: 1.24 births per woman, 0.117 index, 0 to 1Morocco: 2.21 births per woman, 0.438 index, 0 to 1Moldova: 1.73 births per woman, 0.146 index, 0 to 1Madagascar: 3.91 births per woman, 0.584 index, 0 to 1Maldives: 1.56 births per woman, 0.309 index, 0 to 1Mexico: 1.89 births per woman, 0.358 index, 0 to 1North Macedonia: 1.4 births per woman, 0.112 index, 0 to 1Mali: 5.51 births per woman, 0.612 index, 0 to 1Malta: 1.01 births per woman, 0.111 index, 0 to 1Myanmar: 2.1 births per woman, 0.478 index, 0 to 1Montenegro: 1.8 births per woman, 0.121 index, 0 to 1Mongolia: 2.5 births per woman, 0.284 index, 0 to 1Mozambique: 4.69 births per woman, 0.479 index, 0 to 1Mauritania: 4.63 births per woman, 0.603 index, 0 to 1Mauritius: 1.44 births per woman, 0.352 index, 0 to 1Malawi: 3.59 births per woman, 0.581 index, 0 to 1Malaysia: 1.54 births per woman, 0.172 index, 0 to 1Namibia: 3.21 births per woman, 0.448 index, 0 to 1Niger: 5.93 births per woman, 0.591 index, 0 to 1Nigeria: 4.38 births per woman, 0.677 index, 0 to 1Nicaragua: 2.21 births per woman, 0.408 index, 0 to 1Netherlands: 1.43 births per woman, 0.013 index, 0 to 1Norway: 1.45 births per woman, 0.004 index, 0 to 1Nepal: 1.96 births per woman, 0.487 index, 0 to 1New Zealand: 1.57 births per woman, 0.082 index, 0 to 1Oman: 2.51 births per woman, 0.222 index, 0 to 1Pakistan: 3.55 births per woman, 0.536 index, 0 to 1Panama: 2.11 births per woman, 0.374 index, 0 to 1Peru: 1.97 births per woman, 0.34 index, 0 to 1Philippines: 1.89 births per woman, 0.351 index, 0 to 1Papua New Guinea: 3.07 births per woman, 0.584 index, 0 to 1Poland: 1.14 births per woman, 0.081 index, 0 to 1Portugal: 1.41 births per woman, 0.076 index, 0 to 1Paraguay: 2.42 births per woman, 0.412 index, 0 to 1Qatar: 1.72 births per woman, 0.195 index, 0 to 1Romania: 1.39 births per woman, 0.227 index, 0 to 1Russian Federation: 1.42 births per woman, 0.169 index, 0 to 1Rwanda: 3.65 births per woman, 0.394 index, 0 to 1Saudi Arabia: 2.31 births per woman, 0.228 index, 0 to 1Sudan: 4.26 births per woman, 0.588 index, 0 to 1Senegal: 3.77 births per woman, 0.49 index, 0 to 1Singapore: 0.97 births per woman, 0.031 index, 0 to 1Solomon Islands: 3.51 births per woman, 0.478 index, 0 to 1Sierra Leone: 3.7 births per woman, 0.566 index, 0 to 1El Salvador: 1.77 births per woman, 0.362 index, 0 to 1Somalia, Fed. Rep.: 6.01 births per woman, 0.675 index, 0 to 1Serbia: 1.64 births per woman, 0.117 index, 0 to 1Sao Tome and Principe: 3.6 births per woman, 0.492 index, 0 to 1Suriname: 2.23 births per woman, 0.391 index, 0 to 1Slovak Republic: 1.46 births per woman, 0.176 index, 0 to 1Slovenia: 1.52 births per woman, 0.042 index, 0 to 1Sweden: 1.43 births per woman, 0.007 index, 0 to 1Eswatini: 2.72 births per woman, 0.484 index, 0 to 1Syrian Arab Republic: 2.7 births per woman, 0.49 index, 0 to 1Chad: 6.03 births per woman, 0.67 index, 0 to 1Togo: 4.12 births per woman, 0.564 index, 0 to 1Thailand: 1.2 births per woman, 0.288 index, 0 to 1Tajikistan: 3.04 births per woman, 0.258 index, 0 to 1Timor-Leste: 2.63 births per woman, 0.394 index, 0 to 1Tonga: 3.1 births per woman, 0.444 index, 0 to 1Trinidad and Tobago: 1.54 births per woman, 0.262 index, 0 to 1Tunisia: 1.82 births per woman, 0.238 index, 0 to 1Turkiye: 1.48 births per woman, 0.227 index, 0 to 1Tanzania: 4.54 births per woman, 0.504 index, 0 to 1Uganda: 4.17 births per woman, 0.524 index, 0 to 1Uruguay: 1.4 births per woman, 0.218 index, 0 to 1United States: 1.63 births per woman, 0.169 index, 0 to 1Uzbekistan: 3.49 births per woman, 0.291 index, 0 to 1Viet Nam: 1.9 births per woman, 0.299 index, 0 to 1Vanuatu: 3.57 births per woman, 0.556 index, 0 to 1Samoa: 3.8 births per woman, 0.416 index, 0 to 1South Africa: 2.21 births per woman, 0.388 index, 0 to 1Zambia: 4.04 births per woman, 0.524 index, 0 to 1Zimbabwe: 3.67 births per woman, 0.519 index, 0 to 1CHECODHTIIRNISRKORNERNPLSGPSOMTCD

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted+0.8127.8e-41169
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted+0.8631.8e-51169
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income+0.3271.5e-5169
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income+0.5024.2e-12169

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 169 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.485 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from +0.296 (without GUY) to +0.343 (without ISR). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: GUY (-0.031).

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific23+0.37
Europe & Central Asia46+0.18
Latin America & Caribbean28+0.78
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan21+0.27
Sub-Saharan Africa43+0.58

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third57+0.46
Middle third56+0.49
Richest third56+0.46

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians101+0.32
Muslims47+0.42

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France24+0.61
Never a European colony20+0.15
Spain18+0.82
United Kingdom56+0.35

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = +0.362 after dropping 4 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 34years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

The link shows up within countries over time (r = +0.159) but mostly disappears in year-to-year changes (r = +0.086). That points to slow trends particular to each country, not the two measures moving together from year to year.

Across countries (adjusted)+0.327for comparison
Within countries+0.573each country vs itself
…and vs the same year elsewhere+0.159q = 0.013 · 169 countries
Year-on-year changes+0.086q = 0.135
Read with care.
  • Almost all of the second indicator's variation is between countries, so the within-country estimate rests on a small part of the data.
  • Much of the within-country association disappears once shared global year effects are removed, which points to a common worldwide trend rather than a country-level relationship.

4,592 country-years (one country in one year), 169 countries, 1990–2023, about 27 years each on average. Share of the variation that happens within countries over time: 13% for Fertility rate, 10% for Gender Inequality Index. The margins of error allow for each country appearing many times, and for each year’s value being close to the year before.

Year-to-year changes are a cautious test, not a final answer. Looking only at changes from one year to the next removes each country’s own trends. But it also makes measurement mistakes louder, which pulls the results toward zero. A near-zero result here is weak evidence of no link, not proof.

With one measure years behind the other

0.20−0.2-100+10years Gender Inequality Index trails Fertility rate →lag -10: r = 0.024 (n = 3,091)lag -9: r = 0.045 (n = 3,245)lag -8: r = 0.063 (n = 3,399)lag -7: r = 0.078 (n = 3,558)lag -6: r = 0.091 (n = 3,723)lag -5: r = 0.103 (n = 3,895)lag -4: r = 0.114 (n = 4,065)lag -3: r = 0.125 (n = 4,232)lag -2: r = 0.137 (n = 4,415)lag -1: r = 0.148 (n = 4,592)lag +0: r = 0.159 (n = 4,592)lag +1: r = 0.161 (n = 4,512)lag +2: r = 0.162 (n = 4,432)lag +3: r = 0.162 (n = 4,352)lag +4: r = 0.164 (n = 4,268)lag +5: r = 0.166 (n = 4,181)lag +6: r = 0.163 (n = 4,080)lag +7: r = 0.161 (n = 3,979)lag +8: r = 0.158 (n = 3,877)lag +9: r = 0.157 (n = 3,770)lag +10: r = 0.157 (n = 3,658)

Same year (lag 0): +0.159. A peak away from zero does not show which comes first. These series change slowly — this year’s value is close to last year’s. That makes the curve smooth and nearly symmetric, whatever produced the data. Even a sharp peak at one lag (a gap of some years) would not prove that one measure changes the other.

The data


births per woman
index, 0 to 1		Years
Chad TCD6.030.672024, 2023
Somalia, Fed. Rep. SOM6.010.6752024, 2023
Congo, Dem. Rep. COD5.980.6042024, 2023
Niger NER5.930.5912024, 2023
Mali MLI5.510.6122024, 2023
Angola AGO5.050.5152024, 2023
Burundi BDI4.790.5012024, 2023
Afghanistan AFG4.760.6612024, 2023
Mozambique MOZ4.690.4792024, 2023
Mauritania MRT4.630.6032024, 2023
Tanzania TZA4.540.5042024, 2023
Benin BEN4.480.5732024, 2023
Nigeria NGA4.380.6772024, 2023
Sudan SDN4.260.5882024, 2023
Cameroon CMR4.260.5582024, 2023

World Bank, World Development Indicators
United Nations Development Programme, Human Development Report 2025

Sources

Fertility rate

Fertility rate, total (births per woman)

World Bank · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

Gender Inequality Index

Gender Inequality Index

United Nations Development Programme, Human Development Report Office · via Our World in Data · CC BY 3.0 IGO · updated annual

Built from deaths in childbirth, births to teenagers, seats in parliament, secondary schooling, and the share of women and men in the workforce. Five of those inputs are on the site and flagged. It is kept out of the gender score, for the same reason the HDI is kept out of the economy score.

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2023–2024. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Fertility rate and Gender Inequality Index

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Fertility rate changes Gender Inequality Index, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Fertility rate or Gender Inequality Index