placestats

Fertility rate vs. Food insecurity

Fades after adjusting for income

Across 155 countries, Fertility rate and Food insecurity rise and fall together at r = +0.76 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). Comparing only countries with similar income (GDP per person) shrinks it to +0.19, which could easily be chance (q = 0.17, allowing for the many pairs tested, and allowing for countries in the same region being alike). So the first figure mostly shows richer countries differing from poorer ones, not a link between these two things. Caution: direction is not consistent across regions.

Comparing countries across the middle half of fertility rate, 1.44 to 3.15 births per woman, food insecurity is worse by 24.5% of population at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 6.26% of population.

Link before adjusting (r)+0.756p = 5.5e-30 · 155 countries
After adjusting for national income+0.190p = 0.018 · likely range [+0.03, +0.34]
p, allowing for regions0.044standard error 0.075 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.169across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Fertility rate · births per womanlink with income -0.81 · proxy
Food insecurity · % of populationlink with income -0.83 · proxy

Both of these rise and fall closely with national income, so a strong link between them before adjusting was close to certain. Read the adjusted figure, not the first one.

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Fertility rate · births per woman →Food insecurity · % of population →0.7486.031.1%89.8%Afghanistan: 4.76 births per woman, 80.8% of populationAngola: 5.05 births per woman, 78.5% of populationAlbania: 1.34 births per woman, 33% of populationUnited Arab Emirates: 1.21 births per woman, 3.6% of populationArgentina: 1.5 births per woman, 33.8% of populationArmenia: 1.7 births per woman, 7.8% of populationAntigua and Barbuda: 1.58 births per woman, 13.5% of populationAustralia: 1.48 births per woman, 13.8% of populationAustria: 1.31 births per woman, 4.7% of populationAzerbaijan: 1.43 births per woman, 14% of populationBurundi: 4.79 births per woman, 70.8% of populationBelgium: 1.44 births per woman, 8.1% of populationBenin: 4.48 births per woman, 65.6% of populationBurkina Faso: 4.11 births per woman, 41.4% of populationBulgaria: 1.72 births per woman, 11.6% of populationBahamas, The: 1.37 births per woman, 17.2% of populationBosnia and Herzegovina: 1.49 births per woman, 9.9% of populationBelarus: 1.22 births per woman, 1.1% of populationBelize: 2.02 births per woman, 45.5% of populationBrazil: 1.61 births per woman, 13.5% of populationBarbados: 1.71 births per woman, 31.1% of populationBotswana: 2.7 births per woman, 53.9% of populationCentral African Republic: 5.95 births per woman, 88.1% of populationCanada: 1.25 births per woman, 10.2% of populationSwitzerland: 1.29 births per woman, 2% of populationChile: 1.14 births per woman, 19.2% of populationCote d'Ivoire: 4.23 births per woman, 38.4% of populationCameroon: 4.26 births per woman, 61.2% of populationCongo, Dem. Rep.: 5.98 births per woman, 81.5% of populationColombia: 1.63 births per woman, 27.8% of populationComoros: 3.82 births per woman, 79.7% of populationCabo Verde: 1.51 births per woman, 32.1% of populationCosta Rica: 1.32 births per woman, 15.4% of populationCyprus: 1.38 births per woman, 1.4% of populationCzechia: 1.36 births per woman, 10% of populationGermany: 1.36 births per woman, 4.1% of populationDjibouti: 2.62 births per woman, 49.2% of populationDominica: 1.48 births per woman, 34.4% of populationDenmark: 1.47 births per woman, 6.9% of populationDominican Republic: 2.22 births per woman, 43.8% of populationAlgeria: 2.72 births per woman, 17.6% of populationEcuador: 1.81 births per woman, 33.3% of populationEgypt, Arab Rep.: 2.73 births per woman, 30.8% of populationSpain: 1.1 births per woman, 6.5% of populationEstonia: 1.18 births per woman, 10.8% of populationEthiopia: 3.91 births per woman, 61.4% of populationFinland: 1.25 births per woman, 13.4% of populationFiji: 2.27 births per woman, 29.2% of populationFrance: 1.61 births per woman, 8.4% of populationUnited Kingdom: 1.55 births per woman, 6.9% of populationGeorgia: 1.8 births per woman, 26.6% of populationGhana: 3.34 births per woman, 44.5% of populationGambia, The: 3.91 births per woman, 54.8% of populationGuinea-Bissau: 3.76 births per woman, 62.5% of populationGreece: 1.24 births per woman, 6.6% of populationGrenada: 1.47 births per woman, 17.3% of populationGuatemala: 2.29 births per woman, 48.8% of populationGuyana: 2.4 births per woman, 25.5% of populationHonduras: 2.48 births per woman, 41.3% of populationCroatia: 1.46 births per woman, 6% of populationHaiti: 2.63 births per woman, 83.2% of populationHungary: 1.41 births per woman, 15.6% of populationIndonesia: 2.12 births per woman, 4.5% of populationIreland: 1.47 births per woman, 4.8% of populationIran, Islamic Rep.: 1.68 births per woman, 38.8% of populationIceland: 1.56 births per woman, 7.8% of populationIsrael: 2.87 births per woman, 9.2% of populationItaly: 1.18 births per woman, 1.7% of populationJamaica: 1.35 births per woman, 56.4% of populationJapan: 1.15 births per woman, 5.8% of populationKazakhstan: 2.98 births per woman, 2% of populationKenya: 3.17 births per woman, 73.9% of populationKyrgyz Republic: 2.6 births per woman, 7% of populationCambodia: 2.55 births per woman, 40% of populationKiribati: 3.12 births per woman, 42.9% of populationSt. Kitts and Nevis: 1.53 births per woman, 21.1% of populationKorea, Rep.: 0.748 births per woman, 5.4% of populationKuwait: 1.56 births per woman, 8.4% of populationLao PDR: 2.4 births per woman, 35.6% of populationLebanon: 2.23 births per woman, 42.4% of populationLiberia: 3.86 births per woman, 80.8% of populationLibya: 2.3 births per woman, 35.1% of populationSt. Lucia: 1.39 births per woman, 22.2% of populationSri Lanka: 1.95 births per woman, 11.2% of populationLesotho: 2.66 births per woman, 59.9% of populationLithuania: 1.11 births per woman, 6.5% of populationLuxembourg: 1.25 births per woman, 2.6% of populationLatvia: 1.24 births per woman, 11.2% of populationMoldova: 1.73 births per woman, 25.1% of populationMadagascar: 3.91 births per woman, 72.6% of populationMaldives: 1.56 births per woman, 13.4% of populationMexico: 1.89 births per woman, 19.3% of populationNorth Macedonia: 1.4 births per woman, 15.2% of populationMali: 5.51 births per woman, 20.6% of populationMalta: 1.01 births per woman, 9.2% of populationMyanmar: 2.1 births per woman, 32.7% of populationMontenegro: 1.8 births per woman, 10.4% of populationMongolia: 2.5 births per woman, 4.8% of populationMauritania: 4.63 births per woman, 66.3% of populationMauritius: 1.44 births per woman, 31.1% of populationMalawi: 3.59 births per woman, 81.7% of populationMalaysia: 1.54 births per woman, 16.7% of populationNamibia: 3.21 births per woman, 55.9% of populationNiger: 5.93 births per woman, 50.9% of populationNigeria: 4.38 births per woman, 74.8% of populationNetherlands: 1.43 births per woman, 7.5% of populationNorway: 1.45 births per woman, 7.8% of populationNepal: 1.96 births per woman, 36.6% of populationNaoero: 3.29 births per woman, 29.9% of populationNew Zealand: 1.57 births per woman, 17.3% of populationPakistan: 3.55 births per woman, 42.1% of populationPeru: 1.97 births per woman, 41% of populationPhilippines: 1.89 births per woman, 32.9% of populationPalau: 1.88 births per woman, 28.1% of populationPapua New Guinea: 3.07 births per woman, 57.3% of populationPoland: 1.14 births per woman, 3.4% of populationPortugal: 1.41 births per woman, 11.9% of populationParaguay: 2.42 births per woman, 26.2% of populationWest Bank and Gaza: 3.25 births per woman, 27% of populationRomania: 1.39 births per woman, 18.6% of populationRussian Federation: 1.42 births per woman, 2.8% of populationSenegal: 3.77 births per woman, 29.1% of populationSingapore: 0.97 births per woman, 9.5% of populationSierra Leone: 3.7 births per woman, 89.8% of populationEl Salvador: 1.77 births per woman, 45.5% of populationSomalia, Fed. Rep.: 6.01 births per woman, 79.5% of populationSerbia: 1.64 births per woman, 9.5% of populationSao Tome and Principe: 3.6 births per woman, 54.6% of populationSuriname: 2.23 births per woman, 35.8% of populationSlovak Republic: 1.46 births per woman, 7.5% of populationSlovenia: 1.52 births per woman, 8.2% of populationSweden: 1.43 births per woman, 6.9% of populationEswatini: 2.72 births per woman, 59% of populationSeychelles: 1.85 births per woman, 14.3% of populationChad: 6.03 births per woman, 66.3% of populationTogo: 4.12 births per woman, 58.5% of populationThailand: 1.2 births per woman, 5.4% of populationTajikistan: 3.04 births per woman, 25.1% of populationTimor-Leste: 2.63 births per woman, 53.7% of populationTonga: 3.1 births per woman, 14.8% of populationTrinidad and Tobago: 1.54 births per woman, 27.6% of populationTunisia: 1.82 births per woman, 25.4% of populationTanzania: 4.54 births per woman, 58% of populationUganda: 4.17 births per woman, 54.6% of populationUkraine: 0.988 births per woman, 32.5% of populationUruguay: 1.4 births per woman, 16.2% of populationUnited States: 1.63 births per woman, 10.3% of populationUzbekistan: 3.49 births per woman, 24.4% of populationSt. Vincent and the Grenadines: 1.76 births per woman, 33.3% of populationViet Nam: 1.9 births per woman, 10.7% of populationVanuatu: 3.57 births per woman, 23.3% of populationSamoa: 3.8 births per woman, 18.6% of populationSouth Africa: 2.21 births per woman, 20.7% of populationZambia: 4.04 births per woman, 45.3% of populationZimbabwe: 3.67 births per woman, 68.8% of populationBLRCAFCODHTIITAJAMKAZKORMLINERSLESOM

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted+0.7565.5e-30155
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted+0.7441.5e-28155
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income+0.1900.018155
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income+0.1400.084155

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 155 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.566 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from +0.138 (without AGO) to +0.248 (without MLI). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: MLI (+0.057).

Fragile: this link may not hold up.
  • direction is not consistent across regions

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific23-0.15
Europe & Central Asia46-0.17
Latin America & Caribbean28+0.39
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan14+0.01
Sub-Saharan Africa39+0.11

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third52+0.20
Middle third51-0.00
Richest third52+0.12

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians98+0.29
Muslims35+0.08

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France21-0.22
Never a European colony16+0.09
Spain14+0.35
United Kingdom52+0.20

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = +0.186 after dropping 5 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 9years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

Within countries over time, there is no link that is clearly more than chance (r = -0.089, comparing each country only with itself over the years, and each year only with the same year elsewhere). Whatever the cross-country picture shows, countries whose fertility rate moved did not tend to see their food insecurity move with it.

Across countries (adjusted)+0.190for comparison
Within countries-0.287each country vs itself
…and vs the same year elsewhere-0.089q = 0.612 · 126 countries
Year-on-year changes-0.090q = 0.302
Read with care.
  • Almost all of this indicator's variation is between countries, not within them, so the within-country estimate rests on a small part of the data.

1,051 country-years (one country in one year), 126 countries, 2015–2023, about 8 years each on average. Share of the variation that happens within countries over time: 1% for Fertility rate, 3% for Food insecurity. The margins of error allow for each country appearing many times, and for each year’s value being close to the year before.

Year-to-year changes are a cautious test, not a final answer. Looking only at changes from one year to the next removes each country’s own trends. But it also makes measurement mistakes louder, which pulls the results toward zero. A near-zero result here is weak evidence of no link, not proof.

With one measure years behind the other

0.30−0.3-50+10years Food insecurity trails Fertility rate →lag -5: r = -0.060 (n = 480)lag -4: r = -0.080 (n = 586)lag -3: r = -0.087 (n = 749)lag -2: r = -0.080 (n = 900)lag -1: r = -0.082 (n = 1,051)lag +0: r = -0.089 (n = 1,051)lag +1: r = -0.097 (n = 1,051)lag +2: r = -0.105 (n = 1,051)lag +3: r = -0.105 (n = 1,051)lag +4: r = -0.130 (n = 1,051)lag +5: r = -0.150 (n = 1,051)lag +6: r = -0.162 (n = 1,051)lag +7: r = -0.181 (n = 1,051)lag +8: r = -0.205 (n = 1,051)lag +9: r = -0.228 (n = 1,051)lag +10: r = -0.243 (n = 1,051)

Same year (lag 0): -0.089. A peak away from zero does not show which comes first. These series change slowly — this year’s value is close to last year’s. That makes the curve smooth and nearly symmetric, whatever produced the data. Even a sharp peak at one lag (a gap of some years) would not prove that one measure changes the other.

This curve peaks at the edge of the window (lag +10), so it is still drifting where the search stops. That pattern usually reflects a slow trend left over in the data, not a link with real timing. The peak value should not be read as the “true” link at the right lag.

The data


births per woman
% of population		Years
Chad TCD6.0366.3%2024, 2023
Somalia, Fed. Rep. SOM6.0179.5%2024, 2021
Congo, Dem. Rep. COD5.9881.5%2024, 2023
Central African Republic CAF5.9588.1%2024, 2022
Niger NER5.9350.9%2024, 2023
Mali MLI5.5120.6%2024, 2023
Angola AGO5.0578.5%2024, 2021
Burundi BDI4.7970.8%2024, 2023
Afghanistan AFG4.7680.8%2024, 2023
Mauritania MRT4.6366.3%2024, 2023
Tanzania TZA4.5458%2024, 2023
Benin BEN4.4865.6%2024, 2023
Nigeria NGA4.3874.8%2024, 2023
Cameroon CMR4.2661.2%2024, 2023
Cote d'Ivoire CIV4.2338.4%2024, 2023

World Bank, World Development Indicators
World Bank, World Development Indicators

Sources

Fertility rate

Fertility rate, total (births per woman)

World Bank · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

Food insecurity

Prevalence of moderate or severe food insecurity in the population (%)

Food and Agriculture Organization, Food Insecurity Experience Scale · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

Asked of people, in a survey about running out of food, and reported as a three-year average from 2015. It is the one measure of hunger here that comes from what people say they went through, rather than from a model.

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2017–2024. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Fertility rate and Food insecurity

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Fertility rate changes Food insecurity, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Fertility rate or Food insecurity