placestats

Fertility rate vs. Fixed broadband

Fades after adjusting for income

Across 196 countries, Fertility rate and Fixed broadband rise and fall together at r = -0.73 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). Comparing only countries with similar income (GDP per person) shrinks it to -0.16, which could easily be chance (q = 0.091, allowing for the many pairs tested, and allowing for countries in the same region being alike). So the first figure mostly shows richer countries differing from poorer ones, not a link between these two things.

Comparing countries across the middle half of fertility rate, 1.45 to 3.13 births per woman, fixed broadband is worse by 16.2 per 100 people at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 3.48 per 100 people.

Link before adjusting (r)-0.730p = 7.5e-34 · 196 countries
After adjusting for national income-0.155p = 0.030 · likely range [-0.29, -0.01]
p, allowing for regions0.015standard error 0.046 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.091across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Fertility rate · births per womanlink with income -0.81 · proxy
Fixed broadband · per 100 peoplelink with income +0.88 · proxy

Both of these rise and fall closely with national income, so a strong link between them before adjusting was close to certain. Read the adjusted figure, not the first one.

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Fertility rate · births per woman →Fixed broadband · per 100 people →0.5826.03056.4Aruba: 1.61 births per woman, 17.5 per 100 peopleAfghanistan: 4.76 births per woman, 0.0801 per 100 peopleAngola: 5.05 births per woman, 0.363 per 100 peopleAlbania: 1.34 births per woman, 24.9 per 100 peopleAndorra: 1.09 births per woman, 52.4 per 100 peopleUnited Arab Emirates: 1.21 births per woman, 40.8 per 100 peopleArgentina: 1.5 births per woman, 26.1 per 100 peopleArmenia: 1.7 births per woman, 20.3 per 100 peopleAntigua and Barbuda: 1.58 births per woman, 10.7 per 100 peopleAustralia: 1.48 births per woman, 36.5 per 100 peopleAustria: 1.31 births per woman, 30.1 per 100 peopleAzerbaijan: 1.43 births per woman, 21.8 per 100 peopleBurundi: 4.79 births per woman, 0.0203 per 100 peopleBelgium: 1.44 births per woman, 44.2 per 100 peopleBenin: 4.48 births per woman, 0.277 per 100 peopleBurkina Faso: 4.11 births per woman, 0.851 per 100 peopleBangladesh: 2.14 births per woman, 8.09 per 100 peopleBulgaria: 1.72 births per woman, 37 per 100 peopleBahrain: 1.8 births per woman, 17 per 100 peopleBahamas, The: 1.37 births per woman, 25.3 per 100 peopleBosnia and Herzegovina: 1.49 births per woman, 29.4 per 100 peopleBelarus: 1.22 births per woman, 36.3 per 100 peopleBelize: 2.02 births per woman, 9.75 per 100 peopleBermuda: 1.41 births per woman, 51.3 per 100 peopleBolivia: 2.52 births per woman, 12.1 per 100 peopleBrazil: 1.61 births per woman, 24.1 per 100 peopleBarbados: 1.71 births per woman, 37.5 per 100 peopleBrunei Darussalam: 1.73 births per woman, 21.2 per 100 peopleBhutan: 1.45 births per woman, 2.92 per 100 peopleBotswana: 2.7 births per woman, 7.44 per 100 peopleCentral African Republic: 5.95 births per woman, 0.0161 per 100 peopleCanada: 1.25 births per woman, 42.5 per 100 peopleSwitzerland: 1.29 births per woman, 47 per 100 peopleChile: 1.14 births per woman, 23.7 per 100 peopleChina: 1.01 births per woman, 47.2 per 100 peopleCote d'Ivoire: 4.23 births per woman, 1.6 per 100 peopleCameroon: 4.26 births per woman, 2.13 per 100 peopleCongo, Dem. Rep.: 5.98 births per woman, 0.032 per 100 peopleCongo, Rep.: 4.11 births per woman, 1.27 per 100 peopleColombia: 1.63 births per woman, 17.2 per 100 peopleComoros: 3.82 births per woman, 0.388 per 100 peopleCabo Verde: 1.51 births per woman, 8.31 per 100 peopleCosta Rica: 1.32 births per woman, 23.3 per 100 peopleCuracao: 1.4 births per woman, 31.5 per 100 peopleCayman Islands: 1.52 births per woman, 56.4 per 100 peopleCyprus: 1.38 births per woman, 37.6 per 100 peopleCzechia: 1.36 births per woman, 38.9 per 100 peopleGermany: 1.36 births per woman, 45.6 per 100 peopleDjibouti: 2.62 births per woman, 1.47 per 100 peopleDominica: 1.48 births per woman, 20.9 per 100 peopleDenmark: 1.47 births per woman, 43.4 per 100 peopleDominican Republic: 2.22 births per woman, 11.2 per 100 peopleAlgeria: 2.72 births per woman, 13.3 per 100 peopleEcuador: 1.81 births per woman, 17.2 per 100 peopleEgypt, Arab Rep.: 2.73 births per woman, 11.7 per 100 peopleSpain: 1.1 births per woman, 39.2 per 100 peopleEstonia: 1.18 births per woman, 35.4 per 100 peopleEthiopia: 3.91 births per woman, 0.594 per 100 peopleFinland: 1.25 births per woman, 36.5 per 100 peopleFiji: 2.27 births per woman, 1.8 per 100 peopleFrance: 1.61 births per woman, 48.9 per 100 peopleFaroe Islands: 1.91 births per woman, 34.6 per 100 peopleMicronesia, Fed. Sts.: 2.74 births per woman, 5.82 per 100 peopleGabon: 3.59 births per woman, 4.69 per 100 peopleUnited Kingdom: 1.55 births per woman, 42.2 per 100 peopleGeorgia: 1.8 births per woman, 30.4 per 100 peopleGhana: 3.34 births per woman, 0.665 per 100 peopleGuinea: 4.13 births per woman, 0.00628 per 100 peopleGambia, The: 3.91 births per woman, 0.519 per 100 peopleGuinea-Bissau: 3.76 births per woman, 0.386 per 100 peopleEquatorial Guinea: 4.12 births per woman, 0.101 per 100 peopleGreece: 1.24 births per woman, 44.7 per 100 peopleGrenada: 1.47 births per woman, 29.8 per 100 peopleGreenland: 1.71 births per woman, 32 per 100 peopleGuatemala: 2.29 births per woman, 5.34 per 100 peopleGuyana: 2.4 births per woman, 12.9 per 100 peopleHong Kong SAR, China: 0.841 births per woman, 40.3 per 100 peopleHonduras: 2.48 births per woman, 4.58 per 100 peopleCroatia: 1.46 births per woman, 29.6 per 100 peopleHaiti: 2.63 births per woman, 0.307 per 100 peopleHungary: 1.41 births per woman, 37.5 per 100 peopleIndonesia: 2.12 births per woman, 4.92 per 100 peopleIndia: 1.96 births per woman, 3.15 per 100 peopleIreland: 1.47 births per woman, 32.3 per 100 peopleIran, Islamic Rep.: 1.68 births per woman, 12.1 per 100 peopleIraq: 3.22 births per woman, 17.6 per 100 peopleIceland: 1.56 births per woman, 37.5 per 100 peopleIsrael: 2.87 births per woman, 29.2 per 100 peopleItaly: 1.18 births per woman, 31.8 per 100 peopleJamaica: 1.35 births per woman, 16 per 100 peopleJordan: 2.6 births per woman, 7.02 per 100 peopleJapan: 1.15 births per woman, 38.6 per 100 peopleKazakhstan: 2.98 births per woman, 15.3 per 100 peopleKenya: 3.17 births per woman, 3.04 per 100 peopleKyrgyz Republic: 2.6 births per woman, 7.8 per 100 peopleCambodia: 2.55 births per woman, 4.15 per 100 peopleKiribati: 3.12 births per woman, 0.0349 per 100 peopleSt. Kitts and Nevis: 1.53 births per woman, 46.7 per 100 peopleKorea, Rep.: 0.748 births per woman, 47.8 per 100 peopleKuwait: 1.56 births per woman, 1.01 per 100 peopleLao PDR: 2.4 births per woman, 2.72 per 100 peopleLebanon: 2.23 births per woman, 7.29 per 100 peopleLiberia: 3.86 births per woman, 0.275 per 100 peopleLibya: 2.3 births per woman, 4.52 per 100 peopleSt. Lucia: 1.39 births per woman, 13.6 per 100 peopleSri Lanka: 1.95 births per woman, 8.47 per 100 peopleLesotho: 2.66 births per woman, 0.379 per 100 peopleLithuania: 1.11 births per woman, 27.8 per 100 peopleLuxembourg: 1.25 births per woman, 40.3 per 100 peopleLatvia: 1.24 births per woman, 25.8 per 100 peopleMacao SAR, China: 0.582 births per woman, 29.9 per 100 peopleMorocco: 2.21 births per woman, 7.3 per 100 peopleMoldova: 1.73 births per woman, 29.6 per 100 peopleMadagascar: 3.91 births per woman, 0.124 per 100 peopleMaldives: 1.56 births per woman, 19.6 per 100 peopleMexico: 1.89 births per woman, 21.7 per 100 peopleMarshall Islands: 2.86 births per woman, 2.35 per 100 peopleNorth Macedonia: 1.4 births per woman, 29.9 per 100 peopleMali: 5.51 births per woman, 0.774 per 100 peopleMalta: 1.01 births per woman, 44.5 per 100 peopleMyanmar: 2.1 births per woman, 2.87 per 100 peopleMontenegro: 1.8 births per woman, 32.3 per 100 peopleMongolia: 2.5 births per woman, 15.8 per 100 peopleMozambique: 4.69 births per woman, 0.142 per 100 peopleMauritania: 4.63 births per woman, 0.947 per 100 peopleMauritius: 1.44 births per woman, 28 per 100 peopleMalawi: 3.59 births per woman, 0.0864 per 100 peopleMalaysia: 1.54 births per woman, 13.5 per 100 peopleNamibia: 3.21 births per woman, 2.83 per 100 peopleNiger: 5.93 births per woman, 0.111 per 100 peopleNigeria: 4.38 births per woman, 0.0787 per 100 peopleNicaragua: 2.21 births per woman, 5.78 per 100 peopleNetherlands: 1.43 births per woman, 43 per 100 peopleNorway: 1.45 births per woman, 45.2 per 100 peopleNepal: 1.96 births per woman, 10.1 per 100 peopleNaoero: 3.29 births per woman, 9.96 per 100 peopleNew Zealand: 1.57 births per woman, 38 per 100 peopleOman: 2.51 births per woman, 11.1 per 100 peoplePakistan: 3.55 births per woman, 1.47 per 100 peoplePanama: 2.11 births per woman, 18.1 per 100 peoplePeru: 1.97 births per woman, 11.7 per 100 peoplePhilippines: 1.89 births per woman, 7.14 per 100 peoplePalau: 1.88 births per woman, 7.33 per 100 peoplePapua New Guinea: 3.07 births per woman, 0.233 per 100 peoplePoland: 1.14 births per woman, 25.4 per 100 peoplePuerto Rico (US): 0.92 births per woman, 28 per 100 peoplePortugal: 1.41 births per woman, 45.2 per 100 peopleParaguay: 2.42 births per woman, 12.9 per 100 peopleWest Bank and Gaza: 3.25 births per woman, 8.16 per 100 peopleQatar: 1.72 births per woman, 11.8 per 100 peopleRomania: 1.39 births per woman, 35.8 per 100 peopleRussian Federation: 1.42 births per woman, 27.1 per 100 peopleRwanda: 3.65 births per woman, 0.596 per 100 peopleSaudi Arabia: 2.31 births per woman, 44.1 per 100 peopleSudan: 4.26 births per woman, 0.0604 per 100 peopleSenegal: 3.77 births per woman, 4.04 per 100 peopleSingapore: 0.97 births per woman, 27.8 per 100 peopleSolomon Islands: 3.51 births per woman, 0.107 per 100 peopleSierra Leone: 3.7 births per woman, 0.00227 per 100 peopleEl Salvador: 1.77 births per woman, 12.5 per 100 peopleSan Marino: 1.16 births per woman, 35.8 per 100 peopleSomalia, Fed. Rep.: 6.01 births per woman, 0.723 per 100 peopleSerbia: 1.64 births per woman, 33.4 per 100 peopleSao Tome and Principe: 3.6 births per woman, 2.99 per 100 peopleSuriname: 2.23 births per woman, 18.8 per 100 peopleSlovak Republic: 1.46 births per woman, 33.8 per 100 peopleSlovenia: 1.52 births per woman, 34.2 per 100 peopleSweden: 1.43 births per woman, 40.6 per 100 peopleEswatini: 2.72 births per woman, 2.51 per 100 peopleSeychelles: 1.85 births per woman, 31.6 per 100 peopleSyrian Arab Republic: 2.7 births per woman, 6.86 per 100 peopleChad: 6.03 births per woman, 0 per 100 peopleTogo: 4.12 births per woman, 1.42 per 100 peopleThailand: 1.2 births per woman, 14.9 per 100 peopleTajikistan: 3.04 births per woman, 0.984 per 100 peopleTurkmenistan: 2.66 births per woman, 5.22 per 100 peopleTimor-Leste: 2.63 births per woman, 0.006 per 100 peopleTonga: 3.1 births per woman, 8.17 per 100 peopleTrinidad and Tobago: 1.54 births per woman, 27 per 100 peopleTunisia: 1.82 births per woman, 15 per 100 peopleTurkiye: 1.48 births per woman, 23.4 per 100 peopleTuvalu: 3.17 births per woman, 4.52 per 100 peopleTanzania: 4.54 births per woman, 0.246 per 100 peopleUganda: 4.17 births per woman, 0.208 per 100 peopleUkraine: 0.988 births per woman, 21.7 per 100 peopleUruguay: 1.4 births per woman, 33 per 100 peopleUnited States: 1.63 births per woman, 38.9 per 100 peopleUzbekistan: 3.49 births per woman, 34.7 per 100 peopleSt. Vincent and the Grenadines: 1.76 births per woman, 29.5 per 100 peopleVirgin Islands (U.S.): 1.97 births per woman, 10.1 per 100 peopleViet Nam: 1.9 births per woman, 23.7 per 100 peopleVanuatu: 3.57 births per woman, 1.16 per 100 peopleSamoa: 3.8 births per woman, 0.878 per 100 peopleSouth Africa: 2.21 births per woman, 5.35 per 100 peopleZambia: 4.04 births per woman, 0.79 per 100 peopleZimbabwe: 3.67 births per woman, 1.94 per 100 peopleANDBTNCODCPVCYMKORKWTSOMTCDUZB

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted-0.7307.5e-34196
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted-0.8362.0e-52196
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income-0.1550.030196
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income-0.4332.7e-10196

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 196 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.575 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from -0.172 (without UZB) to -0.131 (without GUY). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: GUY (+0.024).

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific31-0.39
Europe & Central Asia52-0.21
Latin America & Caribbean36-0.46
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan22+0.03
Sub-Saharan Africa46-0.31

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third66-0.43
Middle third65-0.26
Richest third65-0.38

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians112-0.26
Muslims49-0.08

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France25-0.32
Never a European colony21-0.22
Spain20-0.69
United Kingdom63-0.21

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = -0.240 after dropping 5 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 27years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

The link also shows up within countries over time (r = +0.484). It holds even when looking only at changes from one year to the next (r = +0.168). This is the strongest kind of evidence available here: it holds when each country is compared only with itself, and it is not just a product of shared trends.

Across countries (adjusted)-0.155for comparison
Within countries-0.185each country vs itself
…and vs the same year elsewhere+0.484q = 0.000 · 206 countries
Year-on-year changes+0.168q = 0.000
The direction flips. Comparing each country only with itself gives -0.18. Also taking out what happened to the whole world each year gives +0.48. So the first figure was picking up a trend both measures share with worldwide progress, not a link between them.
Read with care.
  • Almost all of this indicator's variation is between countries, not within them, so the within-country estimate rests on a small part of the data.
  • The association is much weaker in year-on-year changes than in levels, which points to shared country-specific trends.

4,325 country-years (one country in one year), 206 countries, 1998–2024, about 21 years each on average. Share of the variation that happens within countries over time: 5% for Fertility rate, 35% for Fixed broadband. The margins of error allow for each country appearing many times, and for each year’s value being close to the year before.

Year-to-year changes are a cautious test, not a final answer. Looking only at changes from one year to the next removes each country’s own trends. But it also makes measurement mistakes louder, which pulls the results toward zero. A near-zero result here is weak evidence of no link, not proof.

With one measure years behind the other

0.50−0.5-100+10years Fixed broadband trails Fertility rate →lag -10: r = 0.318 (n = 2,401)lag -9: r = 0.330 (n = 2,602)lag -8: r = 0.350 (n = 2,808)lag -7: r = 0.366 (n = 3,013)lag -6: r = 0.384 (n = 3,195)lag -5: r = 0.398 (n = 3,397)lag -4: r = 0.416 (n = 3,597)lag -3: r = 0.435 (n = 3,800)lag -2: r = 0.454 (n = 4,005)lag -1: r = 0.472 (n = 4,174)lag +0: r = 0.484 (n = 4,325)lag +1: r = 0.483 (n = 4,325)lag +2: r = 0.482 (n = 4,325)lag +3: r = 0.486 (n = 4,325)lag +4: r = 0.490 (n = 4,325)lag +5: r = 0.495 (n = 4,325)lag +6: r = 0.498 (n = 4,325)lag +7: r = 0.499 (n = 4,325)lag +8: r = 0.495 (n = 4,325)lag +9: r = 0.486 (n = 4,315)lag +10: r = 0.470 (n = 4,301)

Same year (lag 0): +0.484. A peak away from zero does not show which comes first. These series change slowly — this year’s value is close to last year’s. That makes the curve smooth and nearly symmetric, whatever produced the data. Even a sharp peak at one lag (a gap of some years) would not prove that one measure changes the other.

The data


births per woman
per 100 people		Years
Chad TCD6.0302024
Somalia, Fed. Rep. SOM6.010.7232024, 2023
Congo, Dem. Rep. COD5.980.0322024
Central African Republic CAF5.950.01612024, 2022
Niger NER5.930.1112024
Mali MLI5.510.7742024, 2022
Angola AGO5.050.3632024
Burundi BDI4.790.02032024, 2023
Afghanistan AFG4.760.08012024, 2023
Mozambique MOZ4.690.1422024
Mauritania MRT4.630.9472024
Tanzania TZA4.540.2462024
Benin BEN4.480.2772024
Nigeria NGA4.380.07872024
Sudan SDN4.260.06042024, 2022

World Bank, World Development Indicators
World Bank, World Development Indicators

Sources

Fertility rate

Fertility rate, total (births per woman)

World Bank · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

Fixed broadband

Fixed broadband subscriptions (per 100 people)

International Telecommunication Union · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

Subscriptions, not people. A household line counts once, however many people use it. A country that went straight to mobile data can be well connected with few of these lines. Internet users, already on the site, is the measure of people.

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2021–2024. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Fertility rate and Fixed broadband

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Fertility rate changes Fixed broadband, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Fertility rate or Fixed broadband