placestats

Child stunting vs. Fertility rate

Fades after adjusting for income

Across 156 countries, Child stunting and Fertility rate rise and fall together at r = +0.71 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). Comparing only countries with similar income (GDP per person) shrinks it to +0.22, which could easily be chance (q = 0.24, allowing for the many pairs tested, and allowing for countries in the same region being alike). So the first figure mostly shows richer countries differing from poorer ones, not a link between these two things. Caution: direction is not consistent across regions.

Comparing countries across the middle half of fertility rate, 1.55 to 3.55 births per woman, child stunting is worse by 14.2% of children under 5 at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 4.92% of children under 5.

Link before adjusting (r)+0.709p = 3.9e-25 · 156 countries
After adjusting for national income+0.222p = 0.005 · likely range [+0.07, +0.37]
p, allowing for regions0.192standard error 0.151 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.244across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Child stunting · % of children under 5link with income -0.80 · proxy
Fertility rate · births per womanlink with income -0.81 · proxy

Both of these rise and fall closely with national income, so a strong link between them before adjusting was close to certain. Read the adjusted figure, not the first one.

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Child stunting · % of children under 5 →Fertility rate · births per woman →1%55.3%0.7486.03Afghanistan: 42% of children under 5, 4.76 births per womanAngola: 47.7% of children under 5, 5.05 births per womanAlbania: 7.4% of children under 5, 1.34 births per womanArgentina: 10.7% of children under 5, 1.5 births per womanArmenia: 6.2% of children under 5, 1.7 births per womanAustralia: 3.1% of children under 5, 1.48 births per womanAzerbaijan: 6.8% of children under 5, 1.43 births per womanBurundi: 55.3% of children under 5, 4.79 births per womanBelgium: 2.6% of children under 5, 1.44 births per womanBenin: 33.2% of children under 5, 4.48 births per womanBurkina Faso: 19.5% of children under 5, 4.11 births per womanBangladesh: 25.1% of children under 5, 2.14 births per womanBulgaria: 5.5% of children under 5, 1.72 births per womanBahrain: 4.6% of children under 5, 1.8 births per womanBosnia and Herzegovina: 7.9% of children under 5, 1.49 births per womanBelarus: 1.1% of children under 5, 1.22 births per womanBelize: 11.7% of children under 5, 2.02 births per womanBolivia: 10.7% of children under 5, 2.52 births per womanBrazil: 8.9% of children under 5, 1.61 births per womanBarbados: 5.8% of children under 5, 1.71 births per womanBrunei Darussalam: 9.9% of children under 5, 1.73 births per womanBhutan: 17.9% of children under 5, 1.45 births per womanBotswana: 21% of children under 5, 2.7 births per womanCentral African Republic: 38.9% of children under 5, 5.95 births per womanChile: 1.7% of children under 5, 1.14 births per womanChina: 4.5% of children under 5, 1.01 births per womanCote d'Ivoire: 20.3% of children under 5, 4.23 births per womanCameroon: 27.2% of children under 5, 4.26 births per womanCongo, Dem. Rep.: 44.1% of children under 5, 5.98 births per womanCongo, Rep.: 16.3% of children under 5, 4.11 births per womanColombia: 11.6% of children under 5, 1.63 births per womanComoros: 17.4% of children under 5, 3.82 births per womanCabo Verde: 5.3% of children under 5, 1.51 births per womanCosta Rica: 10.6% of children under 5, 1.32 births per womanCzechia: 2.4% of children under 5, 1.36 births per womanGermany: 2.2% of children under 5, 1.36 births per womanDjibouti: 20.9% of children under 5, 2.62 births per womanDominican Republic: 5.6% of children under 5, 2.22 births per womanAlgeria: 8.9% of children under 5, 2.72 births per womanEcuador: 17.7% of children under 5, 1.81 births per womanEgypt, Arab Rep.: 12.9% of children under 5, 2.73 births per womanEstonia: 1.3% of children under 5, 1.18 births per womanEthiopia: 35.5% of children under 5, 3.91 births per womanFinland: 1.7% of children under 5, 1.25 births per womanFiji: 7.2% of children under 5, 2.27 births per womanGabon: 13.7% of children under 5, 3.59 births per womanUnited Kingdom: 3.5% of children under 5, 1.55 births per womanGeorgia: 4.7% of children under 5, 1.8 births per womanGhana: 15.6% of children under 5, 3.34 births per womanGuinea: 26.6% of children under 5, 4.13 births per womanGambia, The: 14% of children under 5, 3.91 births per womanGuinea-Bissau: 28.3% of children under 5, 3.76 births per womanEquatorial Guinea: 17.1% of children under 5, 4.12 births per womanGreece: 2% of children under 5, 1.24 births per womanGuatemala: 44.6% of children under 5, 2.29 births per womanGuyana: 7.1% of children under 5, 2.4 births per womanHonduras: 17.9% of children under 5, 2.48 births per womanHaiti: 21.6% of children under 5, 2.63 births per womanIndonesia: 22.6% of children under 5, 2.12 births per womanIndia: 32.9% of children under 5, 1.96 births per womanIreland: 2.2% of children under 5, 1.47 births per womanIran, Islamic Rep.: 4.8% of children under 5, 1.68 births per womanIraq: 9.4% of children under 5, 3.22 births per womanJamaica: 6.9% of children under 5, 1.35 births per womanJordan: 7.7% of children under 5, 2.6 births per womanJapan: 5.2% of children under 5, 1.15 births per womanKazakhstan: 4.4% of children under 5, 2.98 births per womanKenya: 17.9% of children under 5, 3.17 births per womanKyrgyz Republic: 11% of children under 5, 2.6 births per womanCambodia: 22% of children under 5, 2.55 births per womanKiribati: 14.7% of children under 5, 3.12 births per womanKorea, Rep.: 1.8% of children under 5, 0.748 births per womanKuwait: 4.5% of children under 5, 1.56 births per womanLao PDR: 29.9% of children under 5, 2.4 births per womanLebanon: 10.1% of children under 5, 2.23 births per womanLiberia: 26.9% of children under 5, 3.86 births per womanLibya: 9.2% of children under 5, 2.3 births per womanSt. Lucia: 2.8% of children under 5, 1.39 births per womanSri Lanka: 10.1% of children under 5, 1.95 births per womanLesotho: 35% of children under 5, 2.66 births per womanLithuania: 1.6% of children under 5, 1.11 births per womanLatvia: 1.7% of children under 5, 1.24 births per womanMorocco: 13.7% of children under 5, 2.21 births per womanMoldova: 4.2% of children under 5, 1.73 births per womanMadagascar: 38.4% of children under 5, 3.91 births per womanMaldives: 14.2% of children under 5, 1.56 births per womanMexico: 13.1% of children under 5, 1.89 births per womanMarshall Islands: 30% of children under 5, 2.86 births per womanNorth Macedonia: 3.8% of children under 5, 1.4 births per womanMali: 23.2% of children under 5, 5.51 births per womanMalta: 3.5% of children under 5, 1.01 births per womanMyanmar: 24.5% of children under 5, 2.1 births per womanMontenegro: 8% of children under 5, 1.8 births per womanMongolia: 7.1% of children under 5, 2.5 births per womanMozambique: 37% of children under 5, 4.69 births per womanMauritania: 21.5% of children under 5, 4.63 births per womanMauritius: 7.8% of children under 5, 1.44 births per womanMalawi: 33.2% of children under 5, 3.59 births per womanMalaysia: 24.3% of children under 5, 1.54 births per womanNamibia: 16.4% of children under 5, 3.21 births per womanNiger: 48.3% of children under 5, 5.93 births per womanNigeria: 33.8% of children under 5, 4.38 births per womanNetherlands: 1.6% of children under 5, 1.43 births per womanNepal: 26% of children under 5, 1.96 births per womanNaoero: 16% of children under 5, 3.29 births per womanOman: 12.9% of children under 5, 2.51 births per womanPakistan: 33.6% of children under 5, 3.55 births per womanPanama: 14% of children under 5, 2.11 births per womanPeru: 10.6% of children under 5, 1.97 births per womanPhilippines: 27.7% of children under 5, 1.89 births per womanPapua New Guinea: 47.6% of children under 5, 3.07 births per womanPoland: 1% of children under 5, 1.14 births per womanPortugal: 3.2% of children under 5, 1.41 births per womanParaguay: 3.2% of children under 5, 2.42 births per womanWest Bank and Gaza: 8% of children under 5, 3.25 births per womanQatar: 5.4% of children under 5, 1.72 births per womanRomania: 7% of children under 5, 1.39 births per womanRwanda: 29.8% of children under 5, 3.65 births per womanSaudi Arabia: 11.1% of children under 5, 2.31 births per womanSudan: 35.4% of children under 5, 4.26 births per womanSenegal: 17.2% of children under 5, 3.77 births per womanSingapore: 2.8% of children under 5, 0.97 births per womanSolomon Islands: 29.8% of children under 5, 3.51 births per womanSierra Leone: 25.2% of children under 5, 3.7 births per womanEl Salvador: 9.4% of children under 5, 1.77 births per womanSomalia, Fed. Rep.: 23.9% of children under 5, 6.01 births per womanSerbia: 4.6% of children under 5, 1.64 births per womanSao Tome and Principe: 10% of children under 5, 3.6 births per womanSuriname: 8% of children under 5, 2.23 births per womanEswatini: 18.9% of children under 5, 2.72 births per womanSeychelles: 6.2% of children under 5, 1.85 births per womanSyrian Arab Republic: 23.5% of children under 5, 2.7 births per womanTurks and Caicos Islands: 3.2% of children under 5, 1.45 births per womanChad: 31.5% of children under 5, 6.03 births per womanTogo: 23% of children under 5, 4.12 births per womanThailand: 12.3% of children under 5, 1.2 births per womanTajikistan: 13.1% of children under 5, 3.04 births per womanTurkmenistan: 6.5% of children under 5, 2.66 births per womanTimor-Leste: 45.4% of children under 5, 2.63 births per womanTonga: 1.6% of children under 5, 3.1 births per womanTrinidad and Tobago: 7.8% of children under 5, 1.54 births per womanTunisia: 8.9% of children under 5, 1.82 births per womanTurkiye: 5.5% of children under 5, 1.48 births per womanTuvalu: 5.3% of children under 5, 3.17 births per womanTanzania: 29.9% of children under 5, 4.54 births per womanUganda: 23.5% of children under 5, 4.17 births per womanUkraine: 11.7% of children under 5, 0.988 births per womanUruguay: 6.5% of children under 5, 1.4 births per womanUnited States: 4.2% of children under 5, 1.63 births per womanUzbekistan: 6.7% of children under 5, 3.49 births per womanViet Nam: 19.2% of children under 5, 1.9 births per womanVanuatu: 31% of children under 5, 3.57 births per womanSamoa: 8.4% of children under 5, 3.8 births per womanSouth Africa: 24.4% of children under 5, 2.21 births per womanZambia: 32.3% of children under 5, 4.04 births per womanZimbabwe: 23.7% of children under 5, 3.67 births per womanBDICODGTMKORMLINERPNGPOLSGPSOMTLSWSM

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted+0.7093.9e-25156
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted+0.7449.0e-29156
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income+0.2220.005156
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income+0.2350.003156

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 156 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.487 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from +0.164 (without AGO) to +0.251 (without TLS). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: AGO (-0.058).

Fragile: this link may not hold up.
  • direction is not consistent across regions

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific26-0.23
Europe & Central Asia32+0.04
Latin America & Caribbean25+0.29
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan20+0.59
Sub-Saharan Africa46+0.32

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third52+0.02
Middle third52+0.22
Richest third52+0.38

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians86+0.30
Muslims48+0.33

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France25+0.23
Never a European colony21+0.29
Spain18+0.07
United Kingdom52+0.02

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = +0.227 after dropping 1 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 25years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

The link also shows up within countries over time (r = +0.232). It holds even when looking only at changes from one year to the next (r = +0.111). This is the strongest kind of evidence available here: it holds when each country is compared only with itself, and it is not just a product of shared trends.

Across countries (adjusted)+0.222for comparison
Within countries+0.608each country vs itself
…and vs the same year elsewhere+0.232q = 0.004 · 162 countries
Year-on-year changes+0.111q = 0.045
Read with care.
  • Almost all of this indicator's variation is between countries, not within them, so the within-country estimate rests on a small part of the data.
  • Much of the within-country association disappears once shared global year effects are removed, which points to a common worldwide trend rather than a country-level relationship.

4,050 country-years (one country in one year), 162 countries, 2000–2024, about 25 years each on average. Share of the variation that happens within countries over time: 7% for Child stunting, 9% for Fertility rate. The margins of error allow for each country appearing many times, and for each year’s value being close to the year before.

Year-to-year changes are a cautious test, not a final answer. Looking only at changes from one year to the next removes each country’s own trends. But it also makes measurement mistakes louder, which pulls the results toward zero. A near-zero result here is weak evidence of no link, not proof.

With one measure years behind the other

0.40−0.4-100+10years Fertility rate trails Child stunting →lag -10: r = 0.332 (n = 4,050)lag -9: r = 0.327 (n = 4,050)lag -8: r = 0.321 (n = 4,050)lag -7: r = 0.314 (n = 4,050)lag -6: r = 0.306 (n = 4,050)lag -5: r = 0.295 (n = 4,050)lag -4: r = 0.280 (n = 4,050)lag -3: r = 0.267 (n = 4,050)lag -2: r = 0.255 (n = 4,050)lag -1: r = 0.242 (n = 4,050)lag +0: r = 0.232 (n = 4,050)lag +1: r = 0.227 (n = 3,888)lag +2: r = 0.219 (n = 3,726)lag +3: r = 0.209 (n = 3,564)lag +4: r = 0.198 (n = 3,402)lag +5: r = 0.182 (n = 3,240)lag +6: r = 0.167 (n = 3,078)lag +7: r = 0.151 (n = 2,916)lag +8: r = 0.133 (n = 2,754)lag +9: r = 0.114 (n = 2,592)lag +10: r = 0.094 (n = 2,430)

Same year (lag 0): +0.232. A peak away from zero does not show which comes first. These series change slowly — this year’s value is close to last year’s. That makes the curve smooth and nearly symmetric, whatever produced the data. Even a sharp peak at one lag (a gap of some years) would not prove that one measure changes the other.

This curve peaks at the edge of the window (lag -10), so it is still drifting where the search stops. That pattern usually reflects a slow trend left over in the data, not a link with real timing. The peak value should not be read as the “true” link at the right lag.

The data


% of children under 5
births per woman		Years
Burundi BDI55.3%4.792024
Niger NER48.3%5.932024
Angola AGO47.7%5.052024
Papua New Guinea PNG47.6%3.072024
Timor-Leste TLS45.4%2.632024
Guatemala GTM44.6%2.292024
Congo, Dem. Rep. COD44.1%5.982024
Afghanistan AFG42%4.762024
Central African Republic CAF38.9%5.952024
Madagascar MDG38.4%3.912024
Mozambique MOZ37%4.692024
Ethiopia ETH35.5%3.912024
Sudan SDN35.4%4.262024
Lesotho LSO35%2.662024
Nigeria NGA33.8%4.382024

World Bank, World Development Indicators
World Bank, World Development Indicators

Sources

Child stunting

Prevalence of stunting, height for age, modelled estimate (% of children under 5)

UNICEF, WHO and World Bank Joint Child Malnutrition Estimates · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

An estimate from a statistical model. The agencies fit a model to household surveys and predict every country and year. So this is smoother than the surveys behind it, and it has values for years nobody measured. The survey-only series never reaches sixty countries in any year.

Fertility rate

Fertility rate, total (births per woman)

World Bank · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2024. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Child stunting and Fertility rate

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Child stunting changes Fertility rate, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Child stunting or Fertility rate