Share of births to unmarried women and Homicide rate, annual
Where Share of births to unmarried women is higher, Homicide rate, annual tends to be higher. The link is moderate: +0.45 across 388 counties, on a scale from −1 (opposite) to +1 (in step). That figure compares places with the same population density, income and education, so those differences can't explain it.
Holds after adjusting
Every place, plotted
One dot for each place reporting both measures. Hover over or tap a dot to see its name and values. The thin line is the straight line that best fits the dots. The bold line, shown for counties, is the link after adjusting for density, income and education. A dot far from the lines is a place that does not follow the pattern.
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What each measure is
Share of births to unmarried women
Of women who gave birth in the past year, the percentage who were not married: never married, widowed or divorced. A separated woman counts as married. The middle county is 31.8%. It is a share of women who gave birth, not of all women, so it says nothing about how many births there were.
Census ACS 5-year · ACS table B13002_007, divided by women who gave birth in the past year
Homicide rate, annual
Deaths recorded as homicide in the year, per 100,000 residents, from death certificates (CDC WONDER). It is shown only for places and years with 10 or more homicides, so small counties appear rarely or never.
CDC WONDER mortality · CDC WONDER underlying cause of death, homicide by intent, by county and year
Highest and lowest
Where each measure is highest and lowest among the places reporting both (2023), with the other measure beside it. This is shown for every size of place where both are published. Metro-area values are added up from their counties. A measure that cannot be added up across counties, such as a middle value (median), has no metro figure. Counts are shown per 1,000 residents, since raw totals would only list the largest places. Cities and towns and ZIP codes are shown where the Census survey or the CDC publishes them; most other sources stop at the county. They are shown for places of 5,000 residents or more, and only where the survey’s margin of error is small enough for the figure to be usable. The CDC publishes its health estimates for cities in a version adjusted for age, so places with older or younger people can be compared fairly, but not for ZIP codes.
Counties
By share of births to unmarried women
| Share of births to unmarried women | Homicide rate, annual | |
|---|---|---|
| Highest | ||
| Holmes County, MS | 85.7% | 95.1 |
| Bladen County, NC | 76.8% | 33.9 |
| Petersburg city, VA | 76.1% | 33 |
| Coahoma County, MS | 71.2% | 69.7 |
| Vance County, NC | 70.2% | 30.7 |
| Lowest | ||
| Dane County, WI | 11.5% | 2.95 |
| Clackamas County, OR | 12.2% | 3.31 |
| Norfolk County, MA | 13.3% | 1.65 |
| Fairfax County, VA | 13.8% | 1.75 |
| Chester County, PA | 14% | 2 |
By homicide rate, annual
| Share of births to unmarried women | Homicide rate, annual | |
|---|---|---|
| Highest | ||
| Holmes County, MS | 85.7% | 95.1 |
| Oglala Lakota County, SD | 56.9% | 81.9 |
| Coahoma County, MS | 71.2% | 69.7 |
| Washington County, MS | 64.1% | 69.1 |
| Dallas County, AL | 42.2% | 66.4 |
| Lowest | ||
| Nassau County, NY | 18.4% | 1.01 |
| DuPage County, IL | 23.1% | 1.19 |
| Westchester County, NY | 20.2% | 1.31 |
| Middlesex County, MA | 18.6% | 1.35 |
| Norfolk County, MA | 13.3% | 1.65 |
States
By share of births to unmarried women
| Share of births to unmarried women | Homicide rate, annual | |
|---|---|---|
| Highest | ||
| Louisiana | 46.3% | 18.3 |
| Mississippi | 45.5% | 18.5 |
| New Mexico | 43.2% | 13.7 |
| District of Columbia | 41.4% | 35.9 |
| South Carolina | 38.6% | 10.5 |
| Lowest | ||
| Utah | 14.1% | 2.22 |
| Idaho | 20% | 2.49 |
| Colorado | 21.8% | 6.26 |
| North Dakota | 23.1% | 3.06 |
| Washington | 23.4% | 5.3 |
By homicide rate, annual
| Share of births to unmarried women | Homicide rate, annual | |
|---|---|---|
| Highest | ||
| District of Columbia | 41.4% | 35.9 |
| Mississippi | 45.5% | 18.5 |
| Louisiana | 46.3% | 18.3 |
| Alabama | 38.3% | 14 |
| New Mexico | 43.2% | 13.7 |
| Lowest | ||
| New Hampshire | 24.6% | 2.07 |
| Utah | 14.1% | 2.22 |
| Idaho | 20% | 2.49 |
| Massachusetts | 26.8% | 2.6 |
| Rhode Island | 33% | 2.74 |
Metro areas
By share of births to unmarried women
| Share of births to unmarried women | Homicide rate, annual | |
|---|---|---|
| Highest | ||
| Clarksdale, MS | 71.2% | 69.7 |
| Henderson, NC | 70.2% | 30.7 |
| Orangeburg, SC | 69.3% | 20.5 |
| Greenville, MS | 64.1% | 69.1 |
| Macon-Bibb County, GA | 63.8% | 21.1 |
| Lowest | ||
| Madison, WI | 12.8% | 2.95 |
| Ogden, UT | 16.3% | 4.41 |
| San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA | 17.4% | 2.45 |
| Colorado Springs, CO | 17.7% | 7.52 |
| Lancaster, PA | 18.5% | 2.86 |
By homicide rate, annual
| Share of births to unmarried women | Homicide rate, annual | |
|---|---|---|
| Highest | ||
| Clarksdale, MS | 71.2% | 69.7 |
| Greenville, MS | 64.1% | 69.1 |
| Selma, AL | 42.2% | 66.4 |
| Pine Bluff, AR | 60.5% | 48.7 |
| Lumberton, NC | 57.1% | 42.6 |
| Lowest | ||
| Worcester, MA | 33.2% | 1.73 |
| Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH | 21.2% | 2.33 |
| San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA | 17.4% | 2.45 |
| San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA | 25% | 2.57 |
| Manchester-Nashua, NH | 26.3% | 2.57 |
Cities and towns — Homicide rate, annual is not published for cities and towns
By share of births to unmarried women
| Share of births to unmarried women | Homicide rate, annual | |
|---|---|---|
| Highest | ||
| Beverly Hills CDP, FL | 100% | — |
| Daytona Beach Shores city, FL | 100% | — |
| Florida Ridge CDP, FL | 100% | — |
| Fussels Corner CDP, FL | 100% | — |
| Hernando CDP, FL | 100% | — |
| Lowest | ||
| Winsted CDP, CT | 0% | — |
| Terryville CDP, CT | 0% | — |
| Storrs CDP, CT | 0% | — |
| Staples CDP, CT | 0% | — |
| Southwood Acres CDP, CT | 0% | — |
ZIP codes — Homicide rate, annual is not published for ZIP codes
By share of births to unmarried women
| Share of births to unmarried women | Homicide rate, annual | |
|---|---|---|
| Highest | ||
| ZIP 10038 (New York city, NY) | 100% | — |
| ZIP 11980 (Yaphank CDP, NY) | 100% | — |
| ZIP 12222 (Albany city, NY) | 100% | — |
| ZIP 13214 (De Witt CDP, NY) | 100% | — |
| ZIP 13244 (Syracuse city, NY) | 100% | — |
| Lowest | ||
| ZIP 08889 (Hunterdon County, NJ) | 0% | — |
| ZIP 08886 (Warren County, NJ) | 0% | — |
| ZIP 08872 (Sayreville borough, NJ) | 0% | — |
| ZIP 08867 (Hunterdon County, NJ) | 0% | — |
| ZIP 08863 (Fords CDP, NJ) | 0% | — |
Counties furthest from the pattern
Compared with the straight line that best fits all 388 counties: the five with far more homicide rate, annual than their share of births to unmarried women would suggest, and the five with far less.
| Share of births to unmarried women | Homicide rate, annual | |
|---|---|---|
| Above the line | ||
| Oglala Lakota County, SD | 56.9% | 81.9 |
| Holmes County, MS | 85.7% | 95.1 |
| Dallas County, AL | 42.2% | 66.4 |
| Washington County, MS | 64.1% | 69.1 |
| Coahoma County, MS | 71.2% | 69.7 |
| Below the line | ||
| Winnebago County, IL | 55.7% | 8.9 |
| Cleveland County, NC | 59% | 11.8 |
| Gregg County, TX | 52% | 7.92 |
| Webb County, TX | 44.4% | 3.72 |
| Lorain County, OH | 48.2% | 6.29 |
Two series, one county
Both measures over time for a county you pick. The two charts are stacked, so they share only the years along the bottom. You can pick from the thirty largest counties reporting both. This panel covers 2010–2024, and a measure published only once shows as a single dot.
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Every version of the link
Each row measures the same link, from −1 to +1, in a different way. If the rows mostly agree, the link does not depend on one choice of method.
| Before adjusting for anything | +0.651 | 388 counties reporting both |
| After adjusting for density, income and education | +0.445 | the part of the link that is not just how urban, rich and educated a place is |
| Also adjusting for population size | +0.402 | size taken out as well as density |
| Also comparing only within each state | +0.428 | each county is compared only with others in its own state, so this is no longer a comparison between states |
| Giving bigger counties more weight | +0.473 | the adjusted link for the average resident rather than the average county. With this weighting, the data counts for about 128 equally weighted counties |
| Middle value inside single states | +0.649 | the link worked out inside each of 5 states with at least 20 counties reporting |
| Using ranks, after adjusting | +0.286 | uses each county’s rank, not its value, so a few extreme counties cannot create the link |
How much to believe it
Could it be chance?
The p-value is the chance of seeing a link this strong if there were really none. A value of 0.05 or less means the link is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 3.1e-16 means 0.00000000000000031, and the bigger the number after “e-”, the smaller the value. Treating every county as a separate case gives p = 3.9e-20. But counties in the same state tend to resemble each other, so the better figure allows for that: p = 0.000. The site tested 20,910 pairs, and testing so many turns up some flukes. The q-value allows for that too. For this pair it is 1.2e-19.
Do nearby places look alike?
Moran’s I measures how much nearby places look alike: 0 means no map pattern, and higher means neighbours are more similar. For the part of each county that the adjustment leaves unexplained, it is +0.23 (p = 0.001). That unexplained part still clusters on the map. So some regional factor shared by both measures is not accounted for.
Did they change together?
The figures above compare counties at one moment. This asks a different question: where share of births to unmarried women rose most, did homicide rate, annualmove too? Each county’s change is compared with the average change in its own state. That takes out ups and downs that hit a whole region at once. Each change is the gap between two estimates that both contain some error. That error pulls these links towards zero, so a weak one is weak partly for that reason. The q column shows whether a link could be a fluke, allowing for the many pairs tested: 0.05 or less means it is unlikely to be chance.
| Period | Counties | Change together | Within states | q |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014–2019 the main test: each Census survey figure averages five years, and these two do not overlap; before the pandemic | 254 | -0.15 | -0.16 | 0.306 |
| 2019–2023 a repeat check: its two five-year survey figures both include 2019, and it covers the COVID years | 293 | -0.05 | -0.08 | 0.680 |
Over the main period, any link between the changes could easily be chance. How change is measured.
Related pairs
- Stroke and Homicide rate, annual — +0.80
- Threat of utility shut-off and Homicide rate, annual — +0.72
- Children in single-parent households and Homicide rate, annual — +0.71
- Share Black, not Hispanic and Homicide rate, annual — +0.69
- Child mortality and Homicide rate, annual — +0.69
- Self-care disability and Homicide rate, annual — +0.68
- Health score and Homicide rate, annual — -0.68
- Independent-living disability and Homicide rate, annual — +0.68
Association only. Nothing here shows that either measure changes the other. This describes counties, not the people in them. Two measures going together across places does not mean the same people have both. How the US county data works · Explore Share of births to unmarried women and Homicide rate, annual