Effective property tax rate and Firearm fatalities
Where Effective property tax rate is higher, Firearm fatalities tends to be lower. The link is weak: -0.32 across 1,990 counties, on a scale from −1 (opposite) to +1 (in step). That figure compares places with the same population density, income and education, so those differences can't explain it. It holds inside states too. Measured separately within each of 33 states, the middle value of the link is -0.08.
Holds after adjusting
Every place, plotted
One dot for each place reporting both measures. Hover over or tap a dot to see its name and values. The thin line is the straight line that best fits the dots. The bold line, shown for counties, is the link after adjusting for density, income and education. A dot far from the lines is a place that does not follow the pattern.
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What each measure is
Effective property tax rate
The middle property tax bill as a percentage of the middle home value. This is the usual 'effective rate': what a typical owner pays each year per dollar of home value. The middle county is 0.82%, ranging from under 0.2% in rural Alaska and Louisiana to over 3% in southern New Jersey and upstate New York. It is the one tax rate here that really varies from county to county, not only from state to state. Even so, much of the gap follows state lines: New Jersey and New York counties sit near 2.2%, and Hawaii and Alabama counties near 0.3%, almost whichever county you pick.
Census ACS 5-year · ACS table B25103_001, divided by median home value
Firearm fatalities
Deaths involving a gun per 100,000 people. Most are suicides and homicides, counted together.
County Health Rankings · County Health Rankings v148
Highest and lowest
Where each measure is highest and lowest among the places reporting both (2023), with the other measure beside it. This is shown for every size of place where both are published. Metro-area values are added up from their counties. A measure that cannot be added up across counties, such as a middle value (median), has no metro figure. Counts are shown per 1,000 residents, since raw totals would only list the largest places. Cities and towns and ZIP codes are shown where the Census survey or the CDC publishes them; most other sources stop at the county. They are shown for places of 5,000 residents or more, and only where the survey’s margin of error is small enough for the figure to be usable. The CDC publishes its health estimates for cities in a version adjusted for age, so places with older or younger people can be compared fairly, but not for ZIP codes.
Counties
By effective property tax rate
| Effective property tax rate | Firearm fatalities | |
|---|---|---|
| Highest | ||
| Camden County, NJ | 3.08 | 7.43 |
| Salem County, NJ | 3.03 | 12 |
| Allegany County, NY | 2.94 | 11.7 |
| Gloucester County, NJ | 2.81 | 5.18 |
| Monroe County, NY | 2.79 | 9.4 |
| Lowest | ||
| East Feliciana Parish, LA | 0.153 | 34.4 |
| Maui County, HI | 0.168 | 4.45 |
| Avoyelles Parish, LA | 0.203 | 27.7 |
| Bibb County, AL | 0.204 | 21.5 |
| Randolph County, AL | 0.224 | 23 |
By firearm fatalities
| Effective property tax rate | Firearm fatalities | |
|---|---|---|
| Highest | ||
| Phillips County, AR | 0.656 | 79.5 |
| Leflore County, MS | 1.06 | 70.5 |
| Wilcox County, AL | 0.367 | 63.8 |
| Lowndes County, AL | 0.408 | 61.1 |
| Petersburg city, VA | 0.918 | 60.6 |
| Lowest | ||
| Middlesex County, MA | 1.05 | 1.86 |
| Norfolk County, MA | 1.09 | 2.18 |
| Middlesex County, NJ | 2.2 | 2.52 |
| Queens County, NY | 0.877 | 2.54 |
| Western Connecticut Planning Region, CT | 1.47 | 2.57 |
States
By effective property tax rate
| Effective property tax rate | Firearm fatalities | |
|---|---|---|
| Highest | ||
| New Jersey | 2.23 | 4.81 |
| Illinois | 2.07 | 13.1 |
| Connecticut | 1.92 | 6.11 |
| New Hampshire | 1.77 | 10.5 |
| Vermont | 1.71 | 12.4 |
| Lowest | ||
| Hawaii | 0.27 | 4.32 |
| Alabama | 0.378 | 23.7 |
| Nevada | 0.485 | 18.2 |
| Colorado | 0.487 | 16.5 |
| South Carolina | 0.507 | 20.4 |
By firearm fatalities
| Effective property tax rate | Firearm fatalities | |
|---|---|---|
| Highest | ||
| Mississippi | 0.737 | 27.1 |
| Louisiana | 0.549 | 24.9 |
| New Mexico | 0.719 | 24.1 |
| Wyoming | 0.582 | 23.8 |
| Alabama | 0.378 | 23.7 |
| Lowest | ||
| Massachusetts | 1.11 | 3.7 |
| Hawaii | 0.27 | 4.32 |
| Rhode Island | 1.32 | 4.47 |
| New Jersey | 2.23 | 4.81 |
| New York | 1.6 | 4.9 |
Metro areas — Effective property tax rate is not published for metro areas
By firearm fatalities
| Effective property tax rate | Firearm fatalities | |
|---|---|---|
| Highest | ||
| Greenwood, MS | — | 61.5 |
| Greenville, MS | — | 58.3 |
| Selma, AL | — | 48.4 |
| Pine Bluff, AR | — | 43.9 |
| Payson, AZ | — | 40.4 |
| Lowest | ||
| Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH | — | 3.48 |
| Worcester, MA | — | 3.49 |
| Urban Honolulu, HI | — | 3.58 |
| New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ | — | 3.65 |
| Bridgeport-Stamford-Danbury, CT | — | 3.83 |
Cities and towns — Firearm fatalities is not published for cities and towns
By effective property tax rate
| Effective property tax rate | Firearm fatalities | |
|---|---|---|
| Highest | ||
| Salem city, NJ | 5.03 | — |
| Albion village, NY | 4.39 | — |
| Lindenwold borough, NJ | 3.97 | — |
| Endicott village, NY | 3.85 | — |
| Park Forest village, IL | 3.8 | — |
| Lowest | ||
| Nanakuli CDP, HI | 0.0776 | — |
| Waihee-Waiehu CDP, HI | 0.133 | — |
| Makawao CDP, HI | 0.138 | — |
| Lahaina CDP, HI | 0.154 | — |
| Wailuku CDP, HI | 0.157 | — |
ZIP codes — Firearm fatalities is not published for ZIP codes
By effective property tax rate
| Effective property tax rate | Firearm fatalities | |
|---|---|---|
| Highest | ||
| ZIP 60466 (Park Forest village, IL) | 3.79 | — |
| ZIP 12307 (Schenectady city, NY) | 3.79 | — |
| ZIP 08070 (Salem County, NJ) | 3.73 | — |
| ZIP 08021 (Lindenwold borough, NJ) | 3.65 | — |
| ZIP 08007 (Barrington borough, NJ) | 3.61 | — |
| Lowest | ||
| ZIP 96748 (Maui County, HI) | 0.148 | — |
| ZIP 96793 (Maui County, HI) | 0.151 | — |
| ZIP 96732 (Kahului CDP, HI) | 0.156 | — |
| ZIP 96768 (Maui County, HI) | 0.157 | — |
| ZIP 70668 (Calcasieu Parish, LA) | 0.168 | — |
Counties furthest from the pattern
Compared with the straight line that best fits all 1,990 counties: the five with far more firearm fatalities than their effective property tax rate would suggest, and the five with far less.
| Effective property tax rate | Firearm fatalities | |
|---|---|---|
| Above the line | ||
| Phillips County, AR | 0.656 | 79.5 |
| Leflore County, MS | 1.06 | 70.5 |
| Petersburg city, VA | 0.918 | 60.6 |
| Wilcox County, AL | 0.367 | 63.8 |
| St. Louis city, MO | 1.05 | 57.1 |
| Below the line | ||
| Honolulu County, HI | 0.284 | 3.58 |
| Maui County, HI | 0.168 | 4.45 |
| Kauai County, HI | 0.225 | 4.68 |
| San Mateo County, CA | 0.613 | 4.12 |
| Queens County, NY | 0.877 | 2.54 |
Two series, one county
Both measures over time for a county you pick. The two charts are stacked, so they share only the years along the bottom. You can pick from the thirty largest counties reporting both. This panel covers 2010–2024, and a measure published only once shows as a single dot.
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Every version of the link
Each row measures the same link, from −1 to +1, in a different way. If the rows mostly agree, the link does not depend on one choice of method.
| Before adjusting for anything | -0.402 | 1,990 counties reporting both |
| After adjusting for density, income and education | -0.322 | the part of the link that is not just how urban, rich and educated a place is |
| Also adjusting for population size | -0.317 | size taken out as well as density |
| Also comparing only within each state | +0.054 | each county is compared only with others in its own state, so this is no longer a comparison between states |
| Giving bigger counties more weight | -0.220 | the adjusted link for the average resident rather than the average county. With this weighting, the data counts for about 258 equally weighted counties |
| Middle value inside single states | -0.077 | the link worked out inside each of 33 states with at least 20 counties reporting |
| Using ranks, after adjusting | -0.360 | uses each county’s rank, not its value, so a few extreme counties cannot create the link |
How much to believe it
Could it be chance?
The p-value is the chance of seeing a link this strong if there were really none. A value of 0.05 or less means the link is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 3.1e-16 means 0.00000000000000031, and the bigger the number after “e-”, the smaller the value. Treating every county as a separate case gives p = 3.2e-49. But counties in the same state tend to resemble each other, so the better figure allows for that: p = 1.1e-10. The site tested 20,910 pairs, and testing so many turns up some flukes. The q-value allows for that too. For this pair it is 1.7e-48.
Do nearby places look alike?
Moran’s I measures how much nearby places look alike: 0 means no map pattern, and higher means neighbours are more similar. For the part of each county that the adjustment leaves unexplained, it is +0.28 (p = 0.001). That unexplained part still clusters on the map. So some regional factor shared by both measures is not accounted for.
Did they change together?
The figures above compare counties at one moment. This asks a different question: where effective property tax rate rose most, did firearm fatalitiesmove too? Each county’s change is compared with the average change in its own state. That takes out ups and downs that hit a whole region at once. Each change is the gap between two estimates that both contain some error. That error pulls these links towards zero, so a weak one is weak partly for that reason. The q column shows whether a link could be a fluke, allowing for the many pairs tested: 0.05 or less means it is unlikely to be chance.
| Period | Counties | Change together | Within states | q |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014–2019 the main test: each Census survey figure averages five years, and these two do not overlap; before the pandemic | — | — | — | — |
| 2019–2023 a repeat check: its two five-year survey figures both include 2019, and it covers the COVID years | 1,828 | +0.10 | -0.01 | 0.848 |
Measured over the nearest years published: Firearm fatalities: 2019–2022 for the 2019–2023 row.
Not measurable over the main period, so only the second period is shown. How change is measured.
Related pairs
- Child mortality and Firearm fatalities — +0.57
- Share Black, not Hispanic and Firearm fatalities — +0.55
- Firearm fatalities and Years of potential life lost — +0.55
- Firearm fatalities and Premature mortality — +0.50
- Threat of utility shut-off and Firearm fatalities — +0.50
- Firearm fatalities and Life expectancy — -0.49
- Firearm fatalities and Health score — -0.47
- Lack of reliable transportation and Firearm fatalities — +0.46
Association only. Nothing here shows that either measure changes the other. This describes counties, not the people in them. Two measures going together across places does not mean the same people have both. How the US county data works · Explore Effective property tax rate and Firearm fatalities