Child mortality and Safety score
Where Child mortality is higher, Safety score tends to be lower. The link is moderate: -0.56 across 1,687 counties, on a scale from −1 (opposite) to +1 (in step). That figure compares places with the same population density, income and education, so those differences can't explain it. It holds inside states too. Measured separately within each of 31 states, the middle value of the link is -0.66.
Holds after adjusting
Every place, plotted
One dot for each place reporting both measures. Hover over or tap a dot to see its name and values. The thin line is the straight line that best fits the dots. The bold line, shown for counties, is the link after adjusting for density, income and education. A dot far from the lines is a place that does not follow the pattern.
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What each measure is
Child mortality
Deaths of children under 18 per 100,000 children.
County Health Rankings · County Health Rankings v128
Safety score
Deaths from violence and injury (guns, crashes and overdoses), flipped so higher is safer. Homicide, suicide, drunk-driving and total injury deaths are left out, since they would count the same deaths twice. Gun deaths already include most homicides and suicides, and injury deaths include all four.
· derived from 4 measures (BRFSS, CHR)
Highest and lowest
Where each measure is highest and lowest among the places reporting both (2023), with the other measure beside it. This is shown for every size of place where both are published. Metro-area values are added up from their counties. A measure that cannot be added up across counties, such as a middle value (median), has no metro figure. Counts are shown per 1,000 residents, since raw totals would only list the largest places. Cities and towns and ZIP codes are shown where the Census survey or the CDC publishes them; most other sources stop at the county. They are shown for places of 5,000 residents or more, and only where the survey’s margin of error is small enough for the figure to be usable. The CDC publishes its health estimates for cities in a version adjusted for age, so places with older or younger people can be compared fairly, but not for ZIP codes.
Counties
By child mortality
| Child mortality | Safety score | |
|---|---|---|
| Highest | ||
| Oglala Lakota County, SD | 208 | -4.61 |
| Holmes County, MS | 192 | -3.82 |
| Humphreys County, MS | 174 | -2.44 |
| Petersburg city, VA | 168 | -4.06 |
| Conecuh County, AL | 164 | -1.63 |
| Lowest | ||
| Putnam County, NY | 19 | 1.08 |
| Benton County, OR | 19.1 | 0.994 |
| Kendall County, IL | 19.3 | 0.935 |
| Washington County, RI | 20.8 | 0.83 |
| Norfolk County, MA | 21.2 | 1.07 |
By safety score
| Child mortality | Safety score | |
|---|---|---|
| Highest | ||
| Arlington County, VA | 35 | 1.4 |
| Loudoun County, VA | 26.1 | 1.39 |
| Madison County, ID | 37 | 1.38 |
| Story County, IA | 34.5 | 1.29 |
| Fairfax County, VA | 30.2 | 1.29 |
| Lowest | ||
| Big Horn County, MT | 154 | -5.15 |
| Phillips County, AR | 107 | -4.96 |
| Todd County, SD | 153 | -4.82 |
| Oglala Lakota County, SD | 208 | -4.61 |
| Leflore County, MS | 118 | -4.14 |
States
By child mortality
| Child mortality | Safety score | |
|---|---|---|
| Highest | ||
| Mississippi | 86.5 | -1.82 |
| Louisiana | 78.6 | -0.999 |
| Arkansas | 73 | -0.779 |
| Alaska | 72.9 | -0.736 |
| Alabama | 72.7 | -0.771 |
| Lowest | ||
| Massachusetts | 30.4 | 0.153 |
| New Jersey | 33.9 | 0.577 |
| New Hampshire | 34.6 | -1.16 |
| Rhode Island | 34.7 | 0.536 |
| Vermont | 36.3 | 0.0253 |
By safety score
| Child mortality | Safety score | |
|---|---|---|
| Highest | ||
| Hawaii | 44.5 | 0.788 |
| Washington | 42.9 | 0.756 |
| Minnesota | 43.6 | 0.747 |
| California | 38.2 | 0.68 |
| Oregon | 41 | 0.628 |
| Lowest | ||
| Mississippi | 86.5 | -1.82 |
| Kentucky | 60.1 | -1.52 |
| West Virginia | 60.7 | -1.48 |
| Missouri | 62.4 | -1.37 |
| Montana | 62.9 | -1.23 |
Metro areas
By child mortality
| Child mortality | Safety score | |
|---|---|---|
| Highest | ||
| Greenville, MS | 143 | -3.93 |
| Uvalde, TX | 139 | -0.98 |
| Vernon, TX | 137 | -0.845 |
| Rockingham, NC | 137 | -1.42 |
| Minden, LA | 135 | -0.827 |
| Lowest | ||
| Corvallis, OR | 19.1 | 1.2 |
| Blacksburg-Christiansburg-Radford, VA | 21.2 | 0.571 |
| Putnam, CT | 21.6 | 0.747 |
| Amherst Town-Northampton, MA | 22.8 | 1.25 |
| Santa Cruz-Watsonville, CA | 27.5 | 0.863 |
By safety score
| Child mortality | Safety score | |
|---|---|---|
| Highest | ||
| Ames, IA | 34.5 | 1.47 |
| Iowa City, IA | 39.2 | 1.41 |
| State College, PA | 33.8 | 1.38 |
| McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX | 41.3 | 1.37 |
| Urban Honolulu, HI | 44.3 | 1.37 |
| Lowest | ||
| Greenwood, MS | 118 | -4.26 |
| Greenville, MS | 143 | -3.93 |
| Lumberton, NC | 103 | -3.33 |
| Española, NM | 60.5 | -2.61 |
| Selma, AL | 73.4 | -2.61 |
Counties furthest from the pattern
Compared with the straight line that best fits all 1,687 counties: the five with far more safety score than their child mortality would suggest, and the five with far less.
| Child mortality | Safety score | |
|---|---|---|
| Above the line | ||
| Cheboygan County, MI | 123 | 0.421 |
| Adams County, IN | 103 | 0.431 |
| Wilbarger County, TX | 137 | -0.504 |
| Uvalde County, TX | 139 | -0.659 |
| Jackson Parish, LA | 120 | -0.234 |
| Below the line | ||
| Phillips County, AR | 107 | -4.96 |
| Logan County, WV | 59.6 | -3.21 |
| Baltimore city, MD | 93.2 | -3.63 |
| Big Horn County, MT | 154 | -5.15 |
| Leflore County, MS | 118 | -4.14 |
Two series, one county
Both measures over time for a county you pick. The two charts are stacked, so they share only the years along the bottom. You can pick from the thirty largest counties reporting both. This panel covers 2010–2024, and a measure published only once shows as a single dot.
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Every version of the link
Each row measures the same link, from −1 to +1, in a different way. If the rows mostly agree, the link does not depend on one choice of method.
| Before adjusting for anything | -0.727 | 1,687 counties reporting both |
| After adjusting for density, income and education | -0.555 | the part of the link that is not just how urban, rich and educated a place is |
| Also adjusting for population size | -0.550 | size taken out as well as density |
| Also comparing only within each state | -0.509 | each county is compared only with others in its own state, so this is no longer a comparison between states |
| Giving bigger counties more weight | -0.652 | the adjusted link for the average resident rather than the average county. With this weighting, the data counts for about 258 equally weighted counties |
| Middle value inside single states | -0.660 | the link worked out inside each of 31 states with at least 20 counties reporting |
| Using ranks, after adjusting | -0.497 | uses each county’s rank, not its value, so a few extreme counties cannot create the link |
How much to believe it
Could it be chance?
The p-value is the chance of seeing a link this strong if there were really none. A value of 0.05 or less means the link is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 3.1e-16 means 0.00000000000000031, and the bigger the number after “e-”, the smaller the value. Treating every county as a separate case gives p = 7.2e-137. But counties in the same state tend to resemble each other, so the better figure allows for that: p = 3.3e-17. The site tested 20,910 pairs, and testing so many turns up some flukes. The q-value allows for that too. For this pair it is 6.9e-136.
Do nearby places look alike?
Moran’s I measures how much nearby places look alike: 0 means no map pattern, and higher means neighbours are more similar. For the part of each county that the adjustment leaves unexplained, it is +0.35 (p = 0.001). That unexplained part still clusters on the map. So some regional factor shared by both measures is not accounted for.
Did they change together?
Not measurable: at least one of these is published for too few of the years a change needs (2014–2019 or 2019–2023), or for too few counties in both.
Related pairs
- Years of potential life lost and Safety score — -0.75
- Child mortality and Homicide rate, annual — +0.69
- Premature mortality and Safety score — -0.67
- Child mortality and Homicide rate — +0.67
- Life expectancy and Safety score — +0.64
- Child mortality and Years of potential life lost — +0.61
- Health score and Safety score — +0.59
- Child mortality and Firearm fatalities — +0.57
Association only. Nothing here shows that either measure changes the other. This describes counties, not the people in them. Two measures going together across places does not mean the same people have both. How the US county data works · Explore Child mortality and Safety score