Expected yearly tornado loss
The damage tornadoes are expected to do to buildings in an average year, in dollars for every $100,000 that the buildings are worth. FEMA works it out from the tornadoes recorded from 1986 to 2023 and the damage they did.
Reported for3,144areas, in 51 states — none in PR
Link to density0.08not mostly about how urban a place is
Nearby places alike0.86Moran’s I: strongly, neighbouring places tend to be similar
Typerate$ per $100,000 of buildings
How it has moved
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Every state, every year
One row per state and one column per year, sorted by the latest value. It shows states, not counties: nobody can scan 3,222 rows, and the pattern only shows when it all fits on one screen.
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Where it comes from
FEMA National Risk Index · FEMA National Risk Index v1.20, NRI_Table_Counties / NRI_Table_States, TRND_ALRB
Expected yearly damage to buildings from tornadoes. A rate over the area's building value. FEMA publishes it for counties and states; it is not rebuilt for other areas here.
Combining areas: it cannot be combined, so it is shown only where its publisher works it out.
What it goes with
The strongest links that have a page of their own. Unadjusted is the link before adjusting for anything, from −1 (opposite) to +1 (in step). Adjusted compares places with the same population density, income and education levels, so those differences can’t explain the link. This list leaves out the 1 pairs built from the same numbers or the same model as this measure, since they are bound to match.
| Measure | Unadjusted | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|
| Expected yearly tornado loss and Natural amenities scaleWhere Expected yearly tornado loss is higher, Natural amenities scale tends to be lower: a moderate link that holds when only places with similar density, income and education are compared, and inside states as well. Natural amenities scale by US county | -0.43 | -0.42 |
| Expected yearly tornado loss and Area in droughtWhere Expected yearly tornado loss is higher, Area in drought tends to be higher: a moderate link that holds when only places with similar density, income and education are compared, and inside states as well. Area in drought by US county | +0.40 | +0.41 |
| Expected yearly tornado loss and Weeks with half the area in droughtWhere Expected yearly tornado loss is higher, Weeks with half the area in drought tends to be higher: a moderate link that holds when only places with similar density, income and education are compared, and inside states as well. Weeks with half the area in drought by US county | +0.39 | +0.41 |
| Expected yearly tornado loss and Taking blood pressure medicationWhere Expected yearly tornado loss is higher, Taking blood pressure medication tends to be higher: a weak link that holds when only places with similar density, income and education are compared. Taking blood pressure medication by US county | +0.39 | +0.40 |
| Expected yearly tornado loss and Unemployment rateWhere Expected yearly tornado loss is higher, Unemployment rate tends to be lower: a weak link that holds when only places with similar density, income and education are compared, and inside states as well. Unemployment rate by US county | -0.26 | -0.35 |
| Expected yearly tornado loss and Median home valueWhere Expected yearly tornado loss is higher, Median home value tends to be lower: a weak link that holds when only places with similar density, income and education are compared. Median home value by US county | -0.36 | -0.35 |
| Expected yearly tornado loss and ObesityWhere Expected yearly tornado loss is higher, Obesity tends to be higher: a weak link that holds when only places with similar density, income and education are compared. Obesity by US county | +0.39 | +0.35 |
| Expected yearly tornado loss and Median gross rentWhere Expected yearly tornado loss is higher, Median gross rent tends to be lower: a weak link that holds when only places with similar density, income and education are compared. Median gross rent by US county | -0.34 | -0.33 |
| Expected yearly tornado loss and Frequent physical distressWhere Expected yearly tornado loss is higher, Frequent physical distress tends to be lower: a weak link that holds when only places with similar density, income and education are compared. Frequent physical distress by US county | -0.02 | -0.33 |
| Expected yearly tornado loss and Medicare spending per enrolleeWhere Expected yearly tornado loss is higher, Medicare spending per enrollee tends to be higher: a weak link that holds when only places with similar density, income and education are compared, and inside states as well. Medicare spending per enrollee by US county | +0.35 | +0.32 |
6 more pairs with expected yearly tornado loss have a page: House price index (2000 = 100) · Current asthma · Mainline Protestant adherents · Returns reporting unemployment compensation · Land surface form (flat to mountainous) · Summer daily high.
Population makeup
How this measure varies with the racial and ethnic makeup of counties. Every group is shown, whatever its rank. These are links across counties: they describe places, not people. They say nothing about any person’s risk or behaviour based on their race. Counties with a larger share of one group also differ in much else, such as income, segregation, region and history. The adjusted figure only accounts for density, income and education.
| Share of residents | Unadjusted | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|
| Expected yearly tornado loss and Share White, not HispanicCould easily be chance once only places with similar density, income and education are compared. Share White, not Hispanic by US county | +0.13 | +0.13 |
| Expected yearly tornado loss and Share Black, not HispanicCould easily be chance once only places with similar density, income and education are compared. Share Black, not Hispanic by US county | +0.13 | +0.09 |
| Expected yearly tornado loss and Share Hispanic or Latino, any raceWhere Expected yearly tornado loss is higher, Share Hispanic or Latino, any race tends to be lower: a weak link that holds when only places with similar density, income and education are compared. Share Hispanic or Latino, any race by US county | -0.16 | -0.16 |
| Expected yearly tornado loss and Share Asian, not HispanicCould easily be chance once only places with similar density, income and education are compared. Share Asian, not Hispanic by US county | -0.17 | -0.10 |
| Expected yearly tornado loss and Share American Indian or Alaska Native, not HispanicWhere Expected yearly tornado loss is higher, Share American Indian or Alaska Native, not Hispanic tends to be lower: a weak link that holds when only places with similar density, income and education are compared, and inside states as well. Share American Indian or Alaska Native, not Hispanic by US county | -0.08 | -0.11 |
Highest and lowest
Of 3,144 counties reporting it. These are the two ends of a national ranking. For most measures, that ranking mostly sorts places by income and how urban they are. That is why the place pages compare each place with similar places instead.
Highest
- Johnson County, IA — 62.9
- Logan County, OK — 60.3
- York County, NE — 47.5
- Platte County, NE — 44.7
- Sumter County, AL — 44.5
Lowest
- Anchorage Municipality, AK — 0.000001
- Sitka City and Borough, AK — 0.000003
- Fairbanks North Star Borough, AK — 0.000005
- Skagway Municipality, AK — 0.000005
- Ketchikan Gateway Borough, AK — 0.000006
The middle area reports 9.22. The middle half of counties falls between 2.81 and 16 (the 25th to 75th percentile).
US Counties With the Highest Expected Yearly Tornado Loss · US Counties With the Lowest Expected Yearly Tornado Loss
All measures · Explore its pairs · How the US county data works