placestats

Property rights vs. Tax revenue

Fades after adjusting for income

Across 136 countries, Property rights and Tax revenue rise and fall together at r = +0.50 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). Comparing only countries with similar income (GDP per person) leaves r = +0.41, which could easily be chance (q = 0.063, allowing for the many pairs tested, and allowing for countries in the same region being alike).

Comparing countries across the middle half of property rights, 0.647 to 0.885 points, tax revenue is 4.23% of GDP higher at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 4.08% of GDP.

Link before adjusting (r)+0.500p = 5.6e-10 · 136 countries
After adjusting for national income+0.409p = 8.4e-7 · likely range [+0.26, +0.54]
p, allowing for regions0.008standard error 0.106 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.063across 17,292 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Property rights · index (0-1)link with income +0.57 · moderate
Tax revenue · % of GDPlink with income +0.33 · moderate

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Property rights · index (0-1) →Tax revenue · % of GDP →0.1450.9680.648%35.4%Afghanistan: 0.252 index (0-1), 9.9% of GDPAngola: 0.415 index (0-1), 7.59% of GDPAlbania: 0.799 index (0-1), 18% of GDPUnited Arab Emirates: 0.319 index (0-1), 0.648% of GDPArgentina: 0.872 index (0-1), 10.4% of GDPArmenia: 0.753 index (0-1), 22.4% of GDPAustralia: 0.892 index (0-1), 23.6% of GDPAustria: 0.858 index (0-1), 25.8% of GDPAzerbaijan: 0.639 index (0-1), 17.3% of GDPBurundi: 0.621 index (0-1), 12.7% of GDPBelgium: 0.954 index (0-1), 23% of GDPBurkina Faso: 0.645 index (0-1), 18.7% of GDPBangladesh: 0.896 index (0-1), 7.64% of GDPBulgaria: 0.905 index (0-1), 20.7% of GDPBahrain: 0.792 index (0-1), 2.82% of GDPBosnia and Herzegovina: 0.816 index (0-1), 20.2% of GDPBelarus: 0.71 index (0-1), 13% of GDPBrazil: 0.808 index (0-1), 15.4% of GDPBarbados: 0.844 index (0-1), 23.4% of GDPBhutan: 0.682 index (0-1), 12.3% of GDPBotswana: 0.826 index (0-1), 22.4% of GDPCentral African Republic: 0.322 index (0-1), 8.21% of GDPCanada: 0.784 index (0-1), 13.7% of GDPSwitzerland: 0.931 index (0-1), 9.45% of GDPChile: 0.929 index (0-1), 18.3% of GDPChina: 0.427 index (0-1), 7.02% of GDPCote d'Ivoire: 0.689 index (0-1), 13% of GDPCameroon: 0.803 index (0-1), 11.3% of GDPCongo, Dem. Rep.: 0.256 index (0-1), 10.7% of GDPCongo, Rep.: 0.533 index (0-1), 6.51% of GDPColombia: 0.772 index (0-1), 15.2% of GDPCabo Verde: 0.846 index (0-1), 18.4% of GDPCosta Rica: 0.925 index (0-1), 13.5% of GDPCyprus: 0.789 index (0-1), 23.9% of GDPCzechia: 0.929 index (0-1), 18.6% of GDPGermany: 0.968 index (0-1), 10.9% of GDPDenmark: 0.941 index (0-1), 33.4% of GDPDominican Republic: 0.816 index (0-1), 14.7% of GDPEcuador: 0.644 index (0-1), 13.1% of GDPEgypt, Arab Rep.: 0.642 index (0-1), 12.5% of GDPSpain: 0.954 index (0-1), 14.9% of GDPEstonia: 0.927 index (0-1), 22.7% of GDPEthiopia: 0.493 index (0-1), 3.4% of GDPFinland: 0.824 index (0-1), 25.3% of GDPFiji: 0.532 index (0-1), 23.9% of GDPFrance: 0.946 index (0-1), 22.8% of GDPGabon: 0.798 index (0-1), 9.49% of GDPUnited Kingdom: 0.858 index (0-1), 26.9% of GDPGeorgia: 0.886 index (0-1), 24.3% of GDPGhana: 0.847 index (0-1), 12.4% of GDPGuinea-Bissau: 0.514 index (0-1), 8.3% of GDPEquatorial Guinea: 0.413 index (0-1), 6.6% of GDPGreece: 0.899 index (0-1), 27.4% of GDPGuatemala: 0.627 index (0-1), 11.6% of GDPHonduras: 0.851 index (0-1), 15.1% of GDPCroatia: 0.955 index (0-1), 21.2% of GDPHungary: 0.922 index (0-1), 22.7% of GDPIndia: 0.77 index (0-1), 6.93% of GDPIreland: 0.919 index (0-1), 17.9% of GDPIraq: 0.648 index (0-1), 1.34% of GDPIceland: 0.959 index (0-1), 23.2% of GDPIsrael: 0.885 index (0-1), 23.2% of GDPItaly: 0.927 index (0-1), 25.6% of GDPJamaica: 0.898 index (0-1), 23.7% of GDPJordan: 0.808 index (0-1), 15.5% of GDPKazakhstan: 0.763 index (0-1), 11.9% of GDPKenya: 0.706 index (0-1), 14.1% of GDPKyrgyz Republic: 0.85 index (0-1), 19.6% of GDPCambodia: 0.498 index (0-1), 12.2% of GDPKorea, Rep.: 0.829 index (0-1), 13.3% of GDPLao PDR: 0.344 index (0-1), 12.1% of GDPLebanon: 0.671 index (0-1), 11.1% of GDPSri Lanka: 0.807 index (0-1), 9.88% of GDPLesotho: 0.712 index (0-1), 35.4% of GDPLithuania: 0.934 index (0-1), 21.9% of GDPLuxembourg: 0.929 index (0-1), 28.6% of GDPLatvia: 0.91 index (0-1), 17.6% of GDPMorocco: 0.803 index (0-1), 22.7% of GDPMoldova: 0.92 index (0-1), 18.8% of GDPMadagascar: 0.832 index (0-1), 10.9% of GDPMaldives: 0.82 index (0-1), 19.5% of GDPMexico: 0.846 index (0-1), 14.8% of GDPNorth Macedonia: 0.799 index (0-1), 18.8% of GDPMali: 0.775 index (0-1), 12% of GDPMalta: 0.919 index (0-1), 24.1% of GDPMyanmar: 0.288 index (0-1), 6.02% of GDPMongolia: 0.803 index (0-1), 16.9% of GDPMozambique: 0.476 index (0-1), 21.8% of GDPMauritius: 0.83 index (0-1), 20.5% of GDPMalawi: 0.787 index (0-1), 15.6% of GDPMalaysia: 0.709 index (0-1), 12.4% of GDPNamibia: 0.846 index (0-1), 33.9% of GDPNicaragua: 0.495 index (0-1), 20.1% of GDPNetherlands: 0.851 index (0-1), 25.3% of GDPNorway: 0.934 index (0-1), 24.5% of GDPNepal: 0.723 index (0-1), 13.9% of GDPNew Zealand: 0.935 index (0-1), 29.5% of GDPPanama: 0.812 index (0-1), 7.18% of GDPPeru: 0.8 index (0-1), 15.9% of GDPPhilippines: 0.792 index (0-1), 14.4% of GDPPapua New Guinea: 0.581 index (0-1), 15.5% of GDPPoland: 0.93 index (0-1), 17.4% of GDPPortugal: 0.659 index (0-1), 22.3% of GDPParaguay: 0.748 index (0-1), 11.3% of GDPRomania: 0.9 index (0-1), 16.2% of GDPRussian Federation: 0.762 index (0-1), 10.9% of GDPRwanda: 0.172 index (0-1), 12.7% of GDPSaudi Arabia: 0.517 index (0-1), 8.09% of GDPSudan: 0.145 index (0-1), 7.39% of GDPSenegal: 0.813 index (0-1), 19.5% of GDPSingapore: 0.715 index (0-1), 13.6% of GDPSolomon Islands: 0.772 index (0-1), 23.3% of GDPEl Salvador: 0.717 index (0-1), 21.8% of GDPSomalia, Fed. Rep.: 0.252 index (0-1), 2.24% of GDPSerbia: 0.896 index (0-1), 23.9% of GDPSlovak Republic: 0.929 index (0-1), 19.1% of GDPSlovenia: 0.888 index (0-1), 21% of GDPSweden: 0.933 index (0-1), 27.2% of GDPEswatini: 0.156 index (0-1), 24.3% of GDPTogo: 0.698 index (0-1), 13.9% of GDPThailand: 0.717 index (0-1), 15.2% of GDPTajikistan: 0.559 index (0-1), 10.7% of GDPTimor-Leste: 0.65 index (0-1), 21.6% of GDPTrinidad and Tobago: 0.882 index (0-1), 16.8% of GDPTunisia: 0.87 index (0-1), 20.1% of GDPTurkiye: 0.629 index (0-1), 17.6% of GDPTanzania: 0.657 index (0-1), 12.3% of GDPUganda: 0.451 index (0-1), 12.6% of GDPUkraine: 0.79 index (0-1), 21% of GDPUruguay: 0.695 index (0-1), 17.9% of GDPUnited States: 0.844 index (0-1), 10.8% of GDPUzbekistan: 0.623 index (0-1), 11% of GDPVanuatu: 0.725 index (0-1), 16.5% of GDPSouth Africa: 0.858 index (0-1), 25.9% of GDPZambia: 0.633 index (0-1), 18.8% of GDPZimbabwe: 0.544 index (0-1), 7.21% of GDPAREBGDBHRCHEDNKLSONAMNZLRWASDNSOMSWZ

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted+0.5005.6e-10136
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted+0.5351.9e-11136
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income+0.4098.4e-7136
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income+0.4361.2e-7136

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 136 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.091 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from +0.360 (without ARE) to +0.468 (without SWZ). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: SWZ (+0.059).

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific17+0.69
Europe & Central Asia46+0.22
Latin America & Caribbean19+0.18
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan12+0.70
Sub-Saharan Africa34+0.34

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third46+0.31
Middle third45+0.48
Richest third45+0.56

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians90+0.22
Muslims28+0.62

By last European coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France14+0.43
Never a European colony16+0.69
Spain18+0.34
United Kingdom40+0.42

By official ideology

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Nationalist20-0.18
No strong official ideology94+0.39

By party system

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
A few parties banned18+0.48
No parties banned105+0.32

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = +0.459 after dropping 7 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 35years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

Within countries over time, there is no link that is clearly more than chance (r = +0.008, comparing each country only with itself over the years, and each year only with the same year elsewhere). Whatever the cross-country picture shows, countries whose property rights moved did not tend to see their tax revenue move with it.

Across countries (adjusted)+0.409for comparison
Within countries+0.003each country vs itself
…and vs the same year elsewhere+0.008q = 0.706 · 141 countries
Year-on-year changes-0.017q = 0.729
Read with care.
  • Almost all of this indicator's variation is between countries, not within them, so the within-country estimate rests on a small part of the data.

3,597 country-years (one country in one year), 141 countries, 1990–2024, about 26 years each on average. Share of the variation that happens within countries over time: 7% for Property rights, 70% for Tax revenue. The margins of error allow for each country appearing many times, and for each year’s value being close to the year before.

Year-to-year changes are a cautious test, not a final answer. Looking only at changes from one year to the next removes each country’s own trends. But it also makes measurement mistakes louder, which pulls the results toward zero. A near-zero result here is weak evidence of no link, not proof.

With one measure years behind the other

0.10−0.1-100+10years Tax revenue trails Property rights →lag -10: r = -0.050 (n = 2,518)lag -9: r = -0.046 (n = 2,645)lag -8: r = -0.046 (n = 2,771)lag -7: r = -0.044 (n = 2,911)lag -6: r = -0.040 (n = 3,044)lag -5: r = -0.036 (n = 3,167)lag -4: r = -0.025 (n = 3,295)lag -3: r = -0.015 (n = 3,405)lag -2: r = -0.005 (n = 3,508)lag -1: r = 0.002 (n = 3,597)lag +0: r = 0.008 (n = 3,597)lag +1: r = 0.014 (n = 3,525)lag +2: r = 0.016 (n = 3,452)lag +3: r = 0.014 (n = 3,376)lag +4: r = 0.015 (n = 3,298)lag +5: r = 0.022 (n = 3,214)lag +6: r = 0.027 (n = 3,129)lag +7: r = 0.031 (n = 3,046)lag +8: r = 0.043 (n = 2,961)lag +9: r = 0.040 (n = 2,872)lag +10: r = 0.034 (n = 2,781)

Same year (lag 0): +0.008. A peak away from zero does not show which comes first. These series change slowly — this year’s value is close to last year’s. That makes the curve smooth and nearly symmetric, whatever produced the data. Even a sharp peak at one lag (a gap of some years) would not prove that one measure changes the other.

This curve peaks at the edge of the window (lag -10), so it is still drifting where the search stops. That pattern usually reflects a slow trend left over in the data, not a link with real timing. The peak value should not be read as the “true” link at the right lag.

The data


index (0-1)
% of GDP		Years
Germany DEU0.96810.9%2025, 2024
Iceland ISL0.95923.2%2025, 2023
Croatia HRV0.95521.2%2025, 2023
Spain ESP0.95414.9%2025, 2024
Belgium BEL0.95423%2025, 2024
France FRA0.94622.8%2025, 2024
Denmark DNK0.94133.4%2025, 2024
New Zealand NZL0.93529.5%2025, 2024
Norway NOR0.93424.5%2025, 2024
Lithuania LTU0.93421.9%2025, 2024
Sweden SWE0.93327.2%2025, 2024
Switzerland CHE0.9319.45%2025, 2024
Poland POL0.9317.4%2025, 2024
Slovak Republic SVK0.92919.1%2025, 2024
Luxembourg LUX0.92928.6%2025, 2024

Coppedge, M. et al., V-Dem Dataset v16, Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Project; Lindberg, S. I. et al., Varieties of Party Identity and Organization (V-Party) Dataset. Read from the V-Dem Institute's vdemdata package.
World Bank, World Development Indicators

Sources

Property rights

Property rights index

V-Dem Institute, University of Gothenburg · CC BY-SA 4.0 · updated annual (V-Dem); V-Party per election, to 2019

How far people have the right to own, buy, inherit and sell private property, including land, from 0 (virtually no one) to 1 (virtually everyone). It combines V-Dem's expert ratings for men and for women. Limits can come from the law, from the state failing to enforce it, or from custom and religion. It is about the right to property, not how much property people actually own.

Tax revenue

Tax revenue (% of GDP)

World Bank · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2012–2025. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 17,292 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated V-Dem v16; V-Party v2. How the country data works · explore Property rights and Tax revenue

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Property rights changes Tax revenue, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Property rights or Tax revenue