placestats

Participatory democracy vs. Tax revenue

Fades after adjusting for income

Across 136 countries, Participatory democracy and Tax revenue rise and fall together at r = +0.53 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). Comparing only countries with similar income (GDP per person) leaves r = +0.45, which could easily be chance (q = 0.11, allowing for the many pairs tested, and allowing for countries in the same region being alike).

Comparing countries across the middle half of participatory democracy, 0.162 to 0.508 points, tax revenue is 6.52% of GDP higher at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 6.28% of GDP.

Link before adjusting (r)+0.531p = 2.8e-11 · 136 countries
After adjusting for national income+0.450p = 4.3e-8 · likely range [+0.30, +0.58]
p, allowing for regions0.021standard error 0.145 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.109across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Participatory democracy · index (0-1)link with income +0.47 · moderate
Tax revenue · % of GDPlink with income +0.33 · moderate

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Participatory democracy · index (0-1) →Tax revenue · % of GDP →0.0260.7850.648%35.4%Afghanistan: 0.051 index (0-1), 9.9% of GDPAngola: 0.103 index (0-1), 7.59% of GDPAlbania: 0.29 index (0-1), 18% of GDPUnited Arab Emirates: 0.031 index (0-1), 0.648% of GDPArgentina: 0.429 index (0-1), 10.4% of GDPArmenia: 0.319 index (0-1), 22.4% of GDPAustralia: 0.648 index (0-1), 23.6% of GDPAustria: 0.582 index (0-1), 25.8% of GDPAzerbaijan: 0.043 index (0-1), 17.3% of GDPBurundi: 0.142 index (0-1), 12.7% of GDPBelgium: 0.633 index (0-1), 23% of GDPBurkina Faso: 0.104 index (0-1), 18.7% of GDPBangladesh: 0.099 index (0-1), 7.64% of GDPBulgaria: 0.397 index (0-1), 20.7% of GDPBahrain: 0.054 index (0-1), 2.82% of GDPBosnia and Herzegovina: 0.298 index (0-1), 20.2% of GDPBelarus: 0.054 index (0-1), 13% of GDPBrazil: 0.528 index (0-1), 15.4% of GDPBarbados: 0.347 index (0-1), 23.4% of GDPBhutan: 0.349 index (0-1), 12.3% of GDPBotswana: 0.369 index (0-1), 22.4% of GDPCentral African Republic: 0.13 index (0-1), 8.21% of GDPCanada: 0.589 index (0-1), 13.7% of GDPSwitzerland: 0.785 index (0-1), 9.45% of GDPChile: 0.574 index (0-1), 18.3% of GDPChina: 0.036 index (0-1), 7.02% of GDPCote d'Ivoire: 0.262 index (0-1), 13% of GDPCameroon: 0.093 index (0-1), 11.3% of GDPCongo, Dem. Rep.: 0.2 index (0-1), 10.7% of GDPCongo, Rep.: 0.188 index (0-1), 6.51% of GDPColombia: 0.467 index (0-1), 15.2% of GDPCabo Verde: 0.458 index (0-1), 18.4% of GDPCosta Rica: 0.606 index (0-1), 13.5% of GDPCyprus: 0.49 index (0-1), 23.9% of GDPCzechia: 0.562 index (0-1), 18.6% of GDPGermany: 0.593 index (0-1), 10.9% of GDPDenmark: 0.7 index (0-1), 33.4% of GDPDominican Republic: 0.475 index (0-1), 14.7% of GDPEcuador: 0.462 index (0-1), 13.1% of GDPEgypt, Arab Rep.: 0.076 index (0-1), 12.5% of GDPSpain: 0.572 index (0-1), 14.9% of GDPEstonia: 0.621 index (0-1), 22.7% of GDPEthiopia: 0.128 index (0-1), 3.4% of GDPFinland: 0.597 index (0-1), 25.3% of GDPFiji: 0.265 index (0-1), 23.9% of GDPFrance: 0.597 index (0-1), 22.8% of GDPGabon: 0.24 index (0-1), 9.49% of GDPUnited Kingdom: 0.533 index (0-1), 26.9% of GDPGeorgia: 0.236 index (0-1), 24.3% of GDPGhana: 0.361 index (0-1), 12.4% of GDPGuinea-Bissau: 0.128 index (0-1), 8.3% of GDPEquatorial Guinea: 0.041 index (0-1), 6.6% of GDPGreece: 0.493 index (0-1), 27.4% of GDPGuatemala: 0.421 index (0-1), 11.6% of GDPHonduras: 0.32 index (0-1), 15.1% of GDPCroatia: 0.459 index (0-1), 21.2% of GDPHungary: 0.268 index (0-1), 22.7% of GDPIndia: 0.246 index (0-1), 6.93% of GDPIreland: 0.619 index (0-1), 17.9% of GDPIraq: 0.224 index (0-1), 1.34% of GDPIceland: 0.565 index (0-1), 23.2% of GDPIsrael: 0.455 index (0-1), 23.2% of GDPItaly: 0.569 index (0-1), 25.6% of GDPJamaica: 0.524 index (0-1), 23.7% of GDPJordan: 0.132 index (0-1), 15.5% of GDPKazakhstan: 0.107 index (0-1), 11.9% of GDPKenya: 0.335 index (0-1), 14.1% of GDPKyrgyz Republic: 0.163 index (0-1), 19.6% of GDPCambodia: 0.06 index (0-1), 12.2% of GDPKorea, Rep.: 0.551 index (0-1), 13.3% of GDPLao PDR: 0.118 index (0-1), 12.1% of GDPLebanon: 0.222 index (0-1), 11.1% of GDPSri Lanka: 0.52 index (0-1), 9.88% of GDPLesotho: 0.404 index (0-1), 35.4% of GDPLithuania: 0.56 index (0-1), 21.9% of GDPLuxembourg: 0.556 index (0-1), 28.6% of GDPLatvia: 0.595 index (0-1), 17.6% of GDPMorocco: 0.151 index (0-1), 20.7% of GDPMoldova: 0.389 index (0-1), 18.6% of GDPMadagascar: 0.217 index (0-1), 10.9% of GDPMaldives: 0.316 index (0-1), 19.5% of GDPMexico: 0.337 index (0-1), 14.8% of GDPNorth Macedonia: 0.354 index (0-1), 18.8% of GDPMali: 0.164 index (0-1), 12% of GDPMalta: 0.529 index (0-1), 24.1% of GDPMyanmar: 0.041 index (0-1), 6.02% of GDPMongolia: 0.281 index (0-1), 16.9% of GDPMozambique: 0.201 index (0-1), 21.8% of GDPMauritius: 0.481 index (0-1), 20.5% of GDPMalawi: 0.366 index (0-1), 15.6% of GDPMalaysia: 0.303 index (0-1), 12.4% of GDPNamibia: 0.349 index (0-1), 33.9% of GDPNicaragua: 0.098 index (0-1), 20.1% of GDPNetherlands: 0.553 index (0-1), 25.3% of GDPNorway: 0.638 index (0-1), 24.5% of GDPNepal: 0.435 index (0-1), 13.9% of GDPNew Zealand: 0.581 index (0-1), 29.5% of GDPPanama: 0.441 index (0-1), 7.18% of GDPPeru: 0.448 index (0-1), 15.9% of GDPPhilippines: 0.261 index (0-1), 14.4% of GDPPapua New Guinea: 0.28 index (0-1), 15.5% of GDPPoland: 0.519 index (0-1), 18% of GDPPortugal: 0.529 index (0-1), 22.3% of GDPParaguay: 0.342 index (0-1), 11.3% of GDPRomania: 0.416 index (0-1), 16.2% of GDPRussian Federation: 0.124 index (0-1), 10.9% of GDPRwanda: 0.13 index (0-1), 13.1% of GDPSaudi Arabia: 0.026 index (0-1), 8.09% of GDPSudan: 0.051 index (0-1), 7.39% of GDPSenegal: 0.402 index (0-1), 19.5% of GDPSingapore: 0.121 index (0-1), 13.6% of GDPSolomon Islands: 0.429 index (0-1), 23.3% of GDPEl Salvador: 0.159 index (0-1), 21.8% of GDPSomalia, Fed. Rep.: 0.095 index (0-1), 2.24% of GDPSerbia: 0.217 index (0-1), 23.9% of GDPSlovak Republic: 0.508 index (0-1), 19.1% of GDPSlovenia: 0.506 index (0-1), 21% of GDPSweden: 0.635 index (0-1), 27.2% of GDPEswatini: 0.11 index (0-1), 24.3% of GDPTogo: 0.233 index (0-1), 13.9% of GDPThailand: 0.186 index (0-1), 15.2% of GDPTajikistan: 0.059 index (0-1), 10.7% of GDPTimor-Leste: 0.462 index (0-1), 21.6% of GDPTrinidad and Tobago: 0.505 index (0-1), 16.8% of GDPTunisia: 0.242 index (0-1), 20.1% of GDPTurkiye: 0.165 index (0-1), 17.6% of GDPTanzania: 0.245 index (0-1), 12.7% of GDPUganda: 0.156 index (0-1), 12.6% of GDPUkraine: 0.252 index (0-1), 21% of GDPUruguay: 0.716 index (0-1), 17.9% of GDPUnited States: 0.51 index (0-1), 10.8% of GDPUzbekistan: 0.082 index (0-1), 11% of GDPVanuatu: 0.323 index (0-1), 16.5% of GDPSouth Africa: 0.47 index (0-1), 25.9% of GDPZambia: 0.348 index (0-1), 18.8% of GDPZimbabwe: 0.202 index (0-1), 7.21% of GDPAREBHRCHEDEUDNKLKALSONAMNZLSOMSWZ

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted+0.5312.8e-11136
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted+0.5475.3e-12136
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income+0.4504.3e-8136
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income+0.4543.2e-8136

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 136 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.081 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from +0.416 (without ARE) to +0.483 (without CHE). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: ARE (-0.035).

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific17+0.77
Europe & Central Asia46+0.27
Latin America & Caribbean19+0.04
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan12+0.73
Sub-Saharan Africa34+0.59

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third46+0.52
Middle third45+0.18
Richest third45+0.60

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians90+0.27
Muslims28+0.52

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France14+0.35
Never a European colony16+0.36
Spain18+0.26
United Kingdom40+0.59

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = +0.450 after dropping 0 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 35years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

Within countries over time, there is no link that is clearly more than chance (r = +0.015, comparing each country only with itself over the years, and each year only with the same year elsewhere). Whatever the cross-country picture shows, countries whose participatory democracy moved did not tend to see their tax revenue move with it.

Across countries (adjusted)+0.450for comparison
Within countries+0.010each country vs itself
…and vs the same year elsewhere+0.015q = 0.450 · 141 countries
Year-on-year changes+0.025q = 0.170
Read with care.
  • Almost all of this indicator's variation is between countries, not within them, so the within-country estimate rests on a small part of the data.

3,592 country-years (one country in one year), 141 countries, 1990–2024, about 26 years each on average. Share of the variation that happens within countries over time: 7% for Participatory democracy, 70% for Tax revenue. The margins of error allow for each country appearing many times, and for each year’s value being close to the year before.

Year-to-year changes are a cautious test, not a final answer. Looking only at changes from one year to the next removes each country’s own trends. But it also makes measurement mistakes louder, which pulls the results toward zero. A near-zero result here is weak evidence of no link, not proof.

With one measure years behind the other

0.10−0.1-100+10years Tax revenue trails Participatory democracy →lag -10: r = -0.012 (n = 2,518)lag -9: r = -0.007 (n = 2,645)lag -8: r = -0.002 (n = 2,771)lag -7: r = 0.003 (n = 2,911)lag -6: r = 0.005 (n = 3,044)lag -5: r = 0.006 (n = 3,167)lag -4: r = 0.007 (n = 3,295)lag -3: r = 0.008 (n = 3,405)lag -2: r = 0.007 (n = 3,508)lag -1: r = 0.008 (n = 3,593)lag +0: r = 0.015 (n = 3,592)lag +1: r = 0.018 (n = 3,521)lag +2: r = 0.016 (n = 3,448)lag +3: r = 0.013 (n = 3,373)lag +4: r = 0.010 (n = 3,296)lag +5: r = 0.012 (n = 3,213)lag +6: r = 0.014 (n = 3,128)lag +7: r = 0.016 (n = 3,045)lag +8: r = 0.018 (n = 2,960)lag +9: r = 0.021 (n = 2,870)lag +10: r = 0.038 (n = 2,778)

Same year (lag 0): +0.015. A peak away from zero does not show which comes first. These series change slowly — this year’s value is close to last year’s. That makes the curve smooth and nearly symmetric, whatever produced the data. Even a sharp peak at one lag (a gap of some years) would not prove that one measure changes the other.

This curve peaks at the edge of the window (lag +10), so it is still drifting where the search stops. That pattern usually reflects a slow trend left over in the data, not a link with real timing. The peak value should not be read as the “true” link at the right lag.

The data


index (0-1)
% of GDP		Years
Switzerland CHE0.7859.45%2025, 2024
Uruguay URY0.71617.9%2025, 2024
Denmark DNK0.733.4%2025, 2024
Australia AUS0.64823.6%2025, 2022
Norway NOR0.63824.5%2025, 2024
Sweden SWE0.63527.2%2025, 2024
Belgium BEL0.63323%2025, 2024
Estonia EST0.62122.7%2025, 2024
Ireland IRL0.61917.9%2025, 2024
Costa Rica CRI0.60613.5%2025, 2024
France FRA0.59722.8%2025, 2024
Finland FIN0.59725.3%2025, 2024
Latvia LVA0.59517.6%2025, 2024
Germany DEU0.59310.9%2025, 2024
Canada CAN0.58913.7%2025, 2024

Coppedge, M. et al., V-Dem Dataset, Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Project
World Bank, World Development Indicators

Sources

Participatory democracy

Participatory democracy index

V-Dem Institute, University of Gothenburg · via Our World in Data · CC BY 4.0 · updated annual

Electoral democracy plus direct participation: people's involvement in civic groups, referendums, and elected local and regional government.

Tax revenue

Tax revenue (% of GDP)

World Bank · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2012–2025. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Participatory democracy and Tax revenue

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Participatory democracy changes Tax revenue, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Participatory democracy or Tax revenue