placestats

Productivity (TFP) vs. Unintended pregnancies ending in abortion

Holds up after adjusting for income

Across 96 countries, Productivity (TFP) and Unintended pregnancies ending in abortion rise and fall together at r = -0.15 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). It holds up almost unchanged when only countries with similar income (GDP per person) are compared (r = -0.38, q = 0.0073, allowing for the many pairs tested).

Comparing countries across the middle half of unintended pregnancies ending in abortion, 30.2% to 50.9% of unintended pregnancies, productivity (TFP) is worse by 0.0419 ratio to the US at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 0.0598 ratio to the US.

Link before adjusting (r)-0.151p = 0.143 · 96 countries
After adjusting for national income-0.376p = 0.000 · likely range [-0.54, -0.19]
p, allowing for regions0.007standard error 0.086 · 6 regions
Check for luck (q)0.007across 18,622 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Productivity (TFP) · ratio to the US (US = 1)link with income +0.79 · high
Unintended pregnancies ending in abortion · % of unintended pregnancieslink with income +0.12 · independent

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Productivity (TFP) · ratio to the US (US = 1) →Unintended pregnancies ending in abortion · % of unintended pregnancies →0.1981.0819.7%82.1%Angola: 0.483 ratio to the US (US = 1), 28.1% of unintended pregnanciesAlbania: 0.478 ratio to the US (US = 1), 59.2% of unintended pregnanciesArgentina: 0.783 ratio to the US (US = 1), 48.4% of unintended pregnanciesArmenia: 0.626 ratio to the US (US = 1), 81.8% of unintended pregnanciesAustralia: 0.847 ratio to the US (US = 1), 43.1% of unintended pregnanciesBurundi: 0.211 ratio to the US (US = 1), 26.2% of unintended pregnanciesBelgium: 0.916 ratio to the US (US = 1), 37.1% of unintended pregnanciesBenin: 0.405 ratio to the US (US = 1), 36.9% of unintended pregnanciesBurkina Faso: 0.432 ratio to the US (US = 1), 40.6% of unintended pregnanciesBulgaria: 0.85 ratio to the US (US = 1), 35.7% of unintended pregnanciesBolivia: 0.394 ratio to the US (US = 1), 36.3% of unintended pregnanciesBrazil: 0.497 ratio to the US (US = 1), 48.4% of unintended pregnanciesBarbados: 0.324 ratio to the US (US = 1), 58% of unintended pregnanciesBotswana: 0.589 ratio to the US (US = 1), 32.2% of unintended pregnanciesCentral African Republic: 0.198 ratio to the US (US = 1), 30% of unintended pregnanciesCanada: 0.809 ratio to the US (US = 1), 36.8% of unintended pregnanciesSwitzerland: 0.985 ratio to the US (US = 1), 25.5% of unintended pregnanciesChile: 0.867 ratio to the US (US = 1), 52.5% of unintended pregnanciesChina: 0.471 ratio to the US (US = 1), 77.9% of unintended pregnanciesCote d'Ivoire: 0.677 ratio to the US (US = 1), 36.7% of unintended pregnanciesCameroon: 0.466 ratio to the US (US = 1), 40.7% of unintended pregnanciesColombia: 0.589 ratio to the US (US = 1), 43.2% of unintended pregnanciesCosta Rica: 0.763 ratio to the US (US = 1), 41% of unintended pregnanciesCzechia: 0.617 ratio to the US (US = 1), 19.7% of unintended pregnanciesGermany: 1.02 ratio to the US (US = 1), 27.1% of unintended pregnanciesDenmark: 0.929 ratio to the US (US = 1), 38.9% of unintended pregnanciesDominican Republic: 0.585 ratio to the US (US = 1), 44% of unintended pregnanciesEcuador: 0.487 ratio to the US (US = 1), 35.1% of unintended pregnanciesSpain: 0.845 ratio to the US (US = 1), 43.1% of unintended pregnanciesEstonia: 0.643 ratio to the US (US = 1), 41.7% of unintended pregnanciesFinland: 0.772 ratio to the US (US = 1), 24.8% of unintended pregnanciesFrance: 0.887 ratio to the US (US = 1), 49.5% of unintended pregnanciesGabon: 0.843 ratio to the US (US = 1), 36.8% of unintended pregnanciesUnited Kingdom: 0.834 ratio to the US (US = 1), 36.2% of unintended pregnanciesGreece: 0.576 ratio to the US (US = 1), 45.8% of unintended pregnanciesGuatemala: 0.621 ratio to the US (US = 1), 30.1% of unintended pregnanciesHong Kong SAR, China: 0.772 ratio to the US (US = 1), 46.1% of unintended pregnanciesHonduras: 0.42 ratio to the US (US = 1), 30.6% of unintended pregnanciesCroatia: 0.639 ratio to the US (US = 1), 49.9% of unintended pregnanciesHungary: 0.615 ratio to the US (US = 1), 49.4% of unintended pregnanciesIndonesia: 0.449 ratio to the US (US = 1), 63% of unintended pregnanciesIndia: 0.397 ratio to the US (US = 1), 77.1% of unintended pregnanciesIceland: 0.908 ratio to the US (US = 1), 39.1% of unintended pregnanciesItaly: 0.757 ratio to the US (US = 1), 67.1% of unintended pregnanciesJamaica: 0.376 ratio to the US (US = 1), 43.9% of unintended pregnanciesJapan: 0.64 ratio to the US (US = 1), 30.1% of unintended pregnanciesKazakhstan: 0.591 ratio to the US (US = 1), 82.1% of unintended pregnanciesKenya: 0.49 ratio to the US (US = 1), 38% of unintended pregnanciesKyrgyz Republic: 0.472 ratio to the US (US = 1), 79.2% of unintended pregnanciesKorea, Rep.: 0.661 ratio to the US (US = 1), 61.9% of unintended pregnanciesLao PDR: 0.433 ratio to the US (US = 1), 68.3% of unintended pregnanciesSri Lanka: 0.605 ratio to the US (US = 1), 72.3% of unintended pregnanciesLesotho: 0.289 ratio to the US (US = 1), 23.9% of unintended pregnanciesLithuania: 0.762 ratio to the US (US = 1), 27.7% of unintended pregnanciesLatvia: 0.627 ratio to the US (US = 1), 30.2% of unintended pregnanciesMoldova: 0.603 ratio to the US (US = 1), 70.6% of unintended pregnanciesMexico: 0.664 ratio to the US (US = 1), 50.9% of unintended pregnanciesMongolia: 0.467 ratio to the US (US = 1), 65.7% of unintended pregnanciesMozambique: 0.236 ratio to the US (US = 1), 46.7% of unintended pregnanciesMauritania: 0.634 ratio to the US (US = 1), 25.4% of unintended pregnanciesNamibia: 0.55 ratio to the US (US = 1), 27.9% of unintended pregnanciesNiger: 0.352 ratio to the US (US = 1), 31.3% of unintended pregnanciesNigeria: 0.268 ratio to the US (US = 1), 48.2% of unintended pregnanciesNicaragua: 0.388 ratio to the US (US = 1), 27.5% of unintended pregnanciesNetherlands: 0.987 ratio to the US (US = 1), 40.8% of unintended pregnanciesNorway: 1.08 ratio to the US (US = 1), 31.7% of unintended pregnanciesNew Zealand: 0.879 ratio to the US (US = 1), 29.3% of unintended pregnanciesPanama: 0.74 ratio to the US (US = 1), 41.3% of unintended pregnanciesPeru: 0.422 ratio to the US (US = 1), 47.5% of unintended pregnanciesPhilippines: 0.466 ratio to the US (US = 1), 50.5% of unintended pregnanciesPoland: 0.966 ratio to the US (US = 1), 36.6% of unintended pregnanciesPortugal: 0.713 ratio to the US (US = 1), 32.4% of unintended pregnanciesParaguay: 0.522 ratio to the US (US = 1), 51% of unintended pregnanciesRomania: 0.847 ratio to the US (US = 1), 71.2% of unintended pregnanciesRussian Federation: 0.514 ratio to the US (US = 1), 71.8% of unintended pregnanciesRwanda: 0.37 ratio to the US (US = 1), 28.7% of unintended pregnanciesSenegal: 0.323 ratio to the US (US = 1), 25.1% of unintended pregnanciesSingapore: 0.833 ratio to the US (US = 1), 27.5% of unintended pregnanciesSierra Leone: 0.465 ratio to the US (US = 1), 51.5% of unintended pregnanciesEl Salvador: 0.457 ratio to the US (US = 1), 41.5% of unintended pregnanciesSerbia: 0.483 ratio to the US (US = 1), 60.8% of unintended pregnanciesSlovak Republic: 0.648 ratio to the US (US = 1), 26.2% of unintended pregnanciesSlovenia: 0.665 ratio to the US (US = 1), 24.4% of unintended pregnanciesSweden: 0.876 ratio to the US (US = 1), 48.3% of unintended pregnanciesEswatini: 0.835 ratio to the US (US = 1), 26.5% of unintended pregnanciesTogo: 0.338 ratio to the US (US = 1), 32.2% of unintended pregnanciesThailand: 0.578 ratio to the US (US = 1), 64.4% of unintended pregnanciesTajikistan: 0.21 ratio to the US (US = 1), 71% of unintended pregnanciesTrinidad and Tobago: 0.638 ratio to the US (US = 1), 58% of unintended pregnanciesTanzania: 0.337 ratio to the US (US = 1), 35.9% of unintended pregnanciesUkraine: 0.31 ratio to the US (US = 1), 75.9% of unintended pregnanciesUruguay: 0.773 ratio to the US (US = 1), 27.6% of unintended pregnanciesUnited States: 1 ratio to the US (US = 1), 34.2% of unintended pregnanciesSouth Africa: 0.547 ratio to the US (US = 1), 36.6% of unintended pregnanciesZambia: 0.31 ratio to the US (US = 1), 28.2% of unintended pregnanciesZimbabwe: 0.316 ratio to the US (US = 1), 24.8% of unintended pregnanciesARMBDICAFCHEDEUINDKAZLSONORROUTJKUKR

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted-0.1510.14396
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted-0.0960.35396
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income-0.3760.00096
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income-0.2390.02096

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 96 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: -0.225 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from -0.404 (without CZE) to -0.345 (without UKR). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: UKR (+0.031).

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific12-0.55
Europe & Central Asia35-0.06
Latin America & Caribbean20-0.52
Sub-Saharan Africa25+0.00

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third32-0.28
Middle third32-0.43
Richest third32-0.08

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians70-0.36
Muslims12-0.36

By last European coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Spain17-0.17
United Kingdom21-0.33

By official ideology

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Nationalist12-0.61
No strong official ideology73-0.26

By party system

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
A few parties banned12-0.76
No parties banned78-0.18

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = -0.363 after dropping 1 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

Loading…

Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 0years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

Not enough history inside each country to look at this over time. That needs countries measured for several years in a row, and at least one of these measures is measured too rarely.

The data


ratio to the US (US = 1)
% of unintended pregnancies		Years
Norway NOR1.0831.7%2023, 2019
Germany DEU1.0227.1%2023, 2019
United States USA134.2%2023, 2019
Netherlands NLD0.98740.8%2023, 2019
Switzerland CHE0.98525.5%2023, 2019
Poland POL0.96636.6%2023, 2019
Denmark DNK0.92938.9%2023, 2019
Belgium BEL0.91637.1%2023, 2019
Iceland ISL0.90839.1%2023, 2019
France FRA0.88749.5%2023, 2019
New Zealand NZL0.87929.3%2023, 2019
Sweden SWE0.87648.3%2023, 2019
Chile CHL0.86752.5%2023, 2019
Bulgaria BGR0.8535.7%2023, 2019
Australia AUS0.84743.1%2023, 2019

Feenstra, Robert C., Robert Inklaar and Marcel P. Timmer (2015), "The Next Generation of the Penn World Table", American Economic Review, 105(10), 3150-3182, www.ggdc.net/pwt. Data: Penn World Table version 11.0, Groningen Growth and Development Centre, doi:10.34894/FABVLR.
Bearak, J. M., Popinchalk, A., Beavin, C. et al. (2022), 'Country-specific estimates of unintended pregnancy and abortion incidence: a global comparative analysis of levels in 2015-2019', BMJ Global Health 7(3), e007151. Guttmacher Institute. Supplementary appendix, tables A3-A5.

Sources

Productivity (TFP)

Total factor productivity level, compared with the US (Penn World Table)

Groningen Growth and Development Centre, University of Groningen · via DataverseNL · CC BY 4.0 · updated irregular (new versions every few years)

Total factor productivity (TFP) is how much a country produces compared with what its workers, their schooling, and its machines and buildings would be expected to produce. It is the part of GDP that those inputs do not account for, such as better technology or better organisation. The US is set to 1 in every year, so 0.5 means a country gets about half as much output from the same inputs as the US. It is worked out from GDP, capital, the number of workers, their schooling and the labor share, so it is linked to each of them by arithmetic. It is left out of the economy score: being built from GDP, it would turn that score back into GDP per person.

Unintended pregnancies ending in abortion

Share of unintended pregnancies ending in abortion (model estimate, 2015-2019)

Guttmacher Institute (Bearak et al. 2022, BMJ Global Health) · CC BY-NC 4.0 · updated one edition (2015-2019 estimates, published 2022)

Of the unintended pregnancies in the abortion rate's model, the share that ended in abortion, averaged over 2015-2019 (Guttmacher Institute). The rest ended in a birth or a miscarriage. Like the other two, it is an estimate with a range. No "better" direction is set.

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2019–2023. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 6 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 18,622 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated V-Dem v16; V-Party v2. How the country data works · explore Productivity (TFP) and Unintended pregnancies ending in abortion

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Productivity (TFP) changes Unintended pregnancies ending in abortion, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Productivity (TFP) or Unintended pregnancies ending in abortion