placestats

Unintended pregnancies ending in abortion vs. Women ministers

Holds up after adjusting for income

Across 140 countries, Unintended pregnancies ending in abortion and Women ministers rise and fall together at r = -0.36 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). It holds up almost unchanged when only countries with similar income (GDP per person) are compared (r = -0.41, q = 0.016, allowing for the many pairs tested). Caution: direction is not consistent across regions.

Comparing countries across the middle half of unintended pregnancies ending in abortion, 31.3% to 58.7% of unintended pregnancies, women ministers is worse by 8.46% of ministers at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 9.39% of ministers.

Link before adjusting (r)-0.360p = 1.2e-5 · 140 countries
After adjusting for national income-0.411p = 4.9e-7 · likely range [-0.54, -0.26]
p, allowing for regions0.001standard error 0.065 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.016across 14,952 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Unintended pregnancies ending in abortion · % of unintended pregnancieslink with income +0.12 · independent
Women ministers · % of ministerslink with income +0.20 · independent

Neither of these is closely tied to national income, so adjusting for income is a real test here, not a formality.

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Unintended pregnancies ending in abortion · % of unintended pregnancies →Women ministers · % of ministers →19.7%86.1%0%64.3%Angola: 28.1% of unintended pregnancies, 29.2% of ministersAlbania: 59.2% of unintended pregnancies, 41.7% of ministersArgentina: 48.4% of unintended pregnancies, 25% of ministersArmenia: 81.8% of unintended pregnancies, 33.3% of ministersAustralia: 43.1% of unintended pregnancies, 48.3% of ministersAzerbaijan: 77.6% of unintended pregnancies, 0% of ministersBurundi: 26.2% of unintended pregnancies, 33.3% of ministersBelgium: 37.1% of unintended pregnancies, 42.9% of ministersBenin: 36.9% of unintended pregnancies, 23.8% of ministersBurkina Faso: 40.6% of unintended pregnancies, 9.52% of ministersBangladesh: 60.1% of unintended pregnancies, 18.2% of ministersBulgaria: 35.7% of unintended pregnancies, 5.26% of ministersBosnia and Herzegovina: 57.3% of unintended pregnancies, 11.1% of ministersBelarus: 56% of unintended pregnancies, 4.35% of ministersBelize: 45.2% of unintended pregnancies, 5.88% of ministersBolivia: 36.3% of unintended pregnancies, 23.5% of ministersBrazil: 48.4% of unintended pregnancies, 32.3% of ministersBarbados: 58% of unintended pregnancies, 31.3% of ministersBhutan: 67.9% of unintended pregnancies, 11.1% of ministersBotswana: 32.2% of unintended pregnancies, 16.7% of ministersCentral African Republic: 30% of unintended pregnancies, 19.4% of ministersCanada: 36.8% of unintended pregnancies, 45.7% of ministersSwitzerland: 25.5% of unintended pregnancies, 42.9% of ministersChile: 52.5% of unintended pregnancies, 50% of ministersChina: 77.9% of unintended pregnancies, 8.33% of ministersCote d'Ivoire: 36.7% of unintended pregnancies, 19.4% of ministersCameroon: 40.7% of unintended pregnancies, 20.6% of ministersCongo, Dem. Rep.: 27.9% of unintended pregnancies, 25% of ministersCongo, Rep.: 42.6% of unintended pregnancies, 22.2% of ministersColombia: 43.2% of unintended pregnancies, 47.4% of ministersComoros: 32.4% of unintended pregnancies, 13.3% of ministersCabo Verde: 48.6% of unintended pregnancies, 31.3% of ministersCosta Rica: 41% of unintended pregnancies, 33.3% of ministersCzechia: 19.7% of unintended pregnancies, 6.67% of ministersGermany: 27.1% of unintended pregnancies, 46.2% of ministersDjibouti: 41.4% of unintended pregnancies, 21.7% of ministersDenmark: 38.9% of unintended pregnancies, 30.4% of ministersDominican Republic: 44% of unintended pregnancies, 17.6% of ministersEcuador: 35.1% of unintended pregnancies, 42.1% of ministersSpain: 43.1% of unintended pregnancies, 50% of ministersEstonia: 41.7% of unintended pregnancies, 58.3% of ministersEthiopia: 31% of unintended pregnancies, 45.5% of ministersFinland: 24.8% of unintended pregnancies, 61.1% of ministersFrance: 49.5% of unintended pregnancies, 40% of ministersGabon: 36.8% of unintended pregnancies, 27.6% of ministersUnited Kingdom: 36.2% of unintended pregnancies, 50% of ministersGeorgia: 86.1% of unintended pregnancies, 25% of ministersGhana: 35.9% of unintended pregnancies, 17.4% of ministersGuinea: 38.1% of unintended pregnancies, 22.2% of ministersGambia, The: 31.1% of unintended pregnancies, 14.3% of ministersGuinea-Bissau: 58.5% of unintended pregnancies, 20.8% of ministersGreece: 45.8% of unintended pregnancies, 20% of ministersGuatemala: 30.1% of unintended pregnancies, 38.5% of ministersGuyana: 47.5% of unintended pregnancies, 35.3% of ministersHonduras: 30.6% of unintended pregnancies, 37.5% of ministersCroatia: 49.9% of unintended pregnancies, 16.7% of ministersHaiti: 35.5% of unintended pregnancies, 22.2% of ministersHungary: 49.4% of unintended pregnancies, 0% of ministersIndonesia: 63% of unintended pregnancies, 12.5% of ministersIndia: 77.1% of unintended pregnancies, 5.56% of ministersIceland: 39.1% of unintended pregnancies, 60% of ministersItaly: 67.1% of unintended pregnancies, 25% of ministersJamaica: 43.9% of unintended pregnancies, 33.3% of ministersJapan: 30.1% of unintended pregnancies, 10% of ministersKazakhstan: 82.1% of unintended pregnancies, 14.3% of ministersKenya: 38% of unintended pregnancies, 30% of ministersKyrgyz Republic: 79.2% of unintended pregnancies, 12.5% of ministersCambodia: 65.3% of unintended pregnancies, 11.1% of ministersKorea, Rep.: 61.9% of unintended pregnancies, 18.8% of ministersLao PDR: 68.3% of unintended pregnancies, 17.6% of ministersLiberia: 40.4% of unintended pregnancies, 35.3% of ministersSt. Lucia: 54.6% of unintended pregnancies, 18.2% of ministersSri Lanka: 72.3% of unintended pregnancies, 9.09% of ministersLesotho: 23.9% of unintended pregnancies, 11.8% of ministersLithuania: 27.7% of unintended pregnancies, 28.6% of ministersLatvia: 30.2% of unintended pregnancies, 35.7% of ministersMoldova: 70.6% of unintended pregnancies, 35.7% of ministersMadagascar: 62.8% of unintended pregnancies, 42.3% of ministersMaldives: 70.5% of unintended pregnancies, 9.52% of ministersMexico: 50.9% of unintended pregnancies, 45% of ministersNorth Macedonia: 63.4% of unintended pregnancies, 15% of ministersMali: 33.5% of unintended pregnancies, 18.5% of ministersMyanmar: 74.2% of unintended pregnancies, 3.85% of ministersMontenegro: 54.2% of unintended pregnancies, 24% of ministersMongolia: 65.7% of unintended pregnancies, 18.8% of ministersMozambique: 46.7% of unintended pregnancies, 27.8% of ministersMauritania: 25.4% of unintended pregnancies, 19.2% of ministersMalawi: 27.4% of unintended pregnancies, 33.3% of ministersNamibia: 27.9% of unintended pregnancies, 36.8% of ministersNiger: 31.3% of unintended pregnancies, 23.8% of ministersNigeria: 48.2% of unintended pregnancies, 8.82% of ministersNicaragua: 27.5% of unintended pregnancies, 64.3% of ministersNetherlands: 40.8% of unintended pregnancies, 40% of ministersNorway: 31.7% of unintended pregnancies, 47.4% of ministersNepal: 69.4% of unintended pregnancies, 9.52% of ministersNew Zealand: 29.3% of unintended pregnancies, 35% of ministersPakistan: 60.9% of unintended pregnancies, 0% of ministersPanama: 41.3% of unintended pregnancies, 35.3% of ministersPeru: 47.5% of unintended pregnancies, 10.5% of ministersPhilippines: 50.5% of unintended pregnancies, 17.4% of ministersPapua New Guinea: 46.3% of unintended pregnancies, 2.7% of ministersPoland: 36.6% of unintended pregnancies, 35% of ministersPortugal: 32.4% of unintended pregnancies, 41.2% of ministersParaguay: 51% of unintended pregnancies, 23.5% of ministersRomania: 71.2% of unintended pregnancies, 12.5% of ministersRussian Federation: 71.8% of unintended pregnancies, 9.52% of ministersRwanda: 28.7% of unintended pregnancies, 26.3% of ministersSenegal: 25.1% of unintended pregnancies, 16% of ministersSingapore: 27.5% of unintended pregnancies, 14.3% of ministersSolomon Islands: 28% of unintended pregnancies, 9.52% of ministersSierra Leone: 51.5% of unintended pregnancies, 33.3% of ministersEl Salvador: 41.5% of unintended pregnancies, 31.3% of ministersSomalia, Fed. Rep.: 29.2% of unintended pregnancies, 8% of ministersSerbia: 60.8% of unintended pregnancies, 37.5% of ministersSao Tome and Principe: 29.6% of unintended pregnancies, 41.7% of ministersSuriname: 46.5% of unintended pregnancies, 29.4% of ministersSlovak Republic: 26.2% of unintended pregnancies, 13.3% of ministersSlovenia: 24.4% of unintended pregnancies, 36.8% of ministersSweden: 48.3% of unintended pregnancies, 47.8% of ministersEswatini: 26.5% of unintended pregnancies, 26.3% of ministersChad: 29.5% of unintended pregnancies, 16.7% of ministersTogo: 32.2% of unintended pregnancies, 32.3% of ministersThailand: 64.4% of unintended pregnancies, 15.8% of ministersTajikistan: 71% of unintended pregnancies, 14.3% of ministersTurkmenistan: 83.4% of unintended pregnancies, 0% of ministersTimor-Leste: 67.8% of unintended pregnancies, 20% of ministersTonga: 52% of unintended pregnancies, 18.2% of ministersTrinidad and Tobago: 58% of unintended pregnancies, 31.8% of ministersTanzania: 35.9% of unintended pregnancies, 28.6% of ministersUganda: 29.7% of unintended pregnancies, 30% of ministersUkraine: 75.9% of unintended pregnancies, 26.3% of ministersUruguay: 27.6% of unintended pregnancies, 21.4% of ministersUnited States: 34.2% of unintended pregnancies, 40% of ministersUzbekistan: 80.2% of unintended pregnancies, 4.76% of ministersViet Nam: 74.5% of unintended pregnancies, 11.1% of ministersVanuatu: 45.4% of unintended pregnancies, 0% of ministersSamoa: 64.5% of unintended pregnancies, 23.1% of ministersSouth Africa: 36.6% of unintended pregnancies, 43.8% of ministersZambia: 28.2% of unintended pregnancies, 16% of ministersZimbabwe: 24.8% of unintended pregnancies, 28% of ministersARMAZECZEFINGEOISLLSOMDANICSOMTKMUZB

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted-0.3601.2e-5140
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted-0.3190.000140
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income-0.4114.9e-7140
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income-0.3678.8e-6140

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 140 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: -0.051 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from -0.441 (without CZE) to -0.393 (without TKM). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: CZE (-0.030).

Fragile: this link may not hold up.
  • direction is not consistent across regions
  • much weaker within regions than across them (largely a between-region difference)

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific20-0.07
Europe & Central Asia43-0.21
Latin America & Caribbean25-0.26
Sub-Saharan Africa42+0.14

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third47-0.25
Middle third46-0.58
Richest third47-0.17

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians95-0.29
Muslims27-0.32

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France21+0.05
Never a European colony16-0.41
Spain17-0.24
United Kingdom38-0.46

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = -0.411 after dropping 0 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 0years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

Not enough history inside each country to look at this over time. That needs countries measured for several years in a row, and at least one of these measures is measured too rarely.

The data


% of unintended pregnancies
% of ministers		Years
Georgia GEO86.1%25%2019, 2024
Turkmenistan TKM83.4%0%2019, 2024
Kazakhstan KAZ82.1%14.3%2019, 2024
Armenia ARM81.8%33.3%2019, 2024
Uzbekistan UZB80.2%4.76%2019, 2024
Kyrgyz Republic KGZ79.2%12.5%2019, 2024
China CHN77.9%8.33%2019, 2024
Azerbaijan AZE77.6%0%2019, 2024
India IND77.1%5.56%2019, 2024
Ukraine UKR75.9%26.3%2019, 2024
Viet Nam VNM74.5%11.1%2019, 2024
Myanmar MMR74.2%3.85%2019
Sri Lanka LKA72.3%9.09%2019, 2024
Russian Federation RUS71.8%9.52%2019, 2024
Romania ROU71.2%12.5%2019, 2024

Bearak, J. M., Popinchalk, A., Beavin, C. et al. (2022), 'Country-specific estimates of unintended pregnancy and abortion incidence: a global comparative analysis of levels in 2015-2019', BMJ Global Health 7(3), e007151. Guttmacher Institute. Supplementary appendix, tables A3-A5.
World Bank Gender Statistics, from Inter-Parliamentary Union and UN Women, Women in Politics

Sources

Unintended pregnancies ending in abortion

Share of unintended pregnancies ending in abortion (model estimate, 2015-2019)

Guttmacher Institute (Bearak et al. 2022, BMJ Global Health) · CC BY-NC 4.0 · updated one edition (2015-2019 estimates, published 2022)

Of the unintended pregnancies in the abortion rate's model, the share that ended in abortion, averaged over 2015-2019 (Guttmacher Institute). The rest ended in a birth or a miscarriage. Like the other two, it is an estimate with a range. No "better" direction is set.

Women ministers

Proportion of women in ministerial positions

Inter-Parliamentary Union and UN Women · via Our World in Data · CC BY 4.0 · updated annual

Counted on 1 January each year, so a cabinet change in February shows up a year late. Ministers are appointed, not elected, so this is a different measure from women in parliament. A head of government can change it alone, and some do.

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2019–2024. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 14,952 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Unintended pregnancies ending in abortion and Women ministers

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Unintended pregnancies ending in abortion changes Women ministers, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Unintended pregnancies ending in abortion or Women ministers