placestats

Equality score vs. Unintended pregnancies ending in abortion

Holds up after adjusting for income

Across 131 countries, Equality score and Unintended pregnancies ending in abortion rise and fall together at r = +0.42 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). It holds up almost unchanged when only countries with similar income (GDP per person) are compared (r = +0.46, q = 0.045, allowing for the many pairs tested). Caution: much weaker within regions than across them (largely a between-region difference).

Comparing countries across the middle half of unintended pregnancies ending in abortion, 31.5% to 58.3% of unintended pregnancies, equality score is better by 0.557 typical gaps at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 0.438 typical gaps.

Link before adjusting (r)+0.418p = 6.6e-7 · 131 countries
After adjusting for national income+0.456p = 4.9e-8 · likely range [+0.31, +0.58]
p, allowing for regions0.050standard error 0.187 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.045across 14,952 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Equality score · typical gaps (standard deviations)link with income +0.64 · high
Unintended pregnancies ending in abortion · % of unintended pregnancieslink with income +0.12 · independent

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Equality score · typical gaps (standard deviations) →Unintended pregnancies ending in abortion · % of unintended pregnancies →-2.511.0619.7%86.1%Angola: -1.52 typical gaps (standard deviations), 28.1% of unintended pregnanciesAlbania: 0.74 typical gaps (standard deviations), 59.2% of unintended pregnanciesArgentina: -0.0243 typical gaps (standard deviations), 48.4% of unintended pregnanciesArmenia: 0.842 typical gaps (standard deviations), 81.8% of unintended pregnanciesAustralia: 0.472 typical gaps (standard deviations), 43.1% of unintended pregnanciesBurundi: -1.63 typical gaps (standard deviations), 26.2% of unintended pregnanciesBelgium: 0.895 typical gaps (standard deviations), 37.1% of unintended pregnanciesBenin: -0.24 typical gaps (standard deviations), 36.9% of unintended pregnanciesBurkina Faso: -0.796 typical gaps (standard deviations), 40.6% of unintended pregnanciesBangladesh: 0.51 typical gaps (standard deviations), 60.1% of unintended pregnanciesBulgaria: 0.142 typical gaps (standard deviations), 35.7% of unintended pregnanciesBosnia and Herzegovina: 0.688 typical gaps (standard deviations), 57.3% of unintended pregnanciesBelarus: 1.03 typical gaps (standard deviations), 56% of unintended pregnanciesBelize: 0.119 typical gaps (standard deviations), 45.2% of unintended pregnanciesBolivia: 0.0335 typical gaps (standard deviations), 36.3% of unintended pregnanciesBrazil: -0.529 typical gaps (standard deviations), 48.4% of unintended pregnanciesBarbados: 0.434 typical gaps (standard deviations), 58% of unintended pregnanciesBhutan: 0.799 typical gaps (standard deviations), 67.9% of unintended pregnanciesBotswana: -1.27 typical gaps (standard deviations), 32.2% of unintended pregnanciesCentral African Republic: -1.88 typical gaps (standard deviations), 30% of unintended pregnanciesCanada: 0.62 typical gaps (standard deviations), 36.8% of unintended pregnanciesSwitzerland: 0.51 typical gaps (standard deviations), 25.5% of unintended pregnanciesChile: -0.0433 typical gaps (standard deviations), 52.5% of unintended pregnanciesChina: 0.369 typical gaps (standard deviations), 77.9% of unintended pregnanciesCote d'Ivoire: -0.127 typical gaps (standard deviations), 36.7% of unintended pregnanciesCameroon: -0.675 typical gaps (standard deviations), 40.7% of unintended pregnanciesCongo, Dem. Rep.: -2.33 typical gaps (standard deviations), 27.9% of unintended pregnanciesCongo, Rep.: -1.38 typical gaps (standard deviations), 42.6% of unintended pregnanciesColombia: -0.906 typical gaps (standard deviations), 43.2% of unintended pregnanciesComoros: 0.565 typical gaps (standard deviations), 32.4% of unintended pregnanciesCabo Verde: -0.375 typical gaps (standard deviations), 48.6% of unintended pregnanciesCosta Rica: -0.197 typical gaps (standard deviations), 41% of unintended pregnanciesCzechia: 0.96 typical gaps (standard deviations), 19.7% of unintended pregnanciesGermany: 0.483 typical gaps (standard deviations), 27.1% of unintended pregnanciesDjibouti: -0.607 typical gaps (standard deviations), 41.4% of unintended pregnanciesDenmark: 0.709 typical gaps (standard deviations), 38.9% of unintended pregnanciesDominican Republic: 0.176 typical gaps (standard deviations), 44% of unintended pregnanciesEcuador: -0.287 typical gaps (standard deviations), 35.1% of unintended pregnanciesSpain: 0.498 typical gaps (standard deviations), 43.1% of unintended pregnanciesEstonia: 0.665 typical gaps (standard deviations), 41.7% of unintended pregnanciesEthiopia: -0.344 typical gaps (standard deviations), 31% of unintended pregnanciesFinland: 0.857 typical gaps (standard deviations), 24.8% of unintended pregnanciesFrance: 0.607 typical gaps (standard deviations), 49.5% of unintended pregnanciesGabon: 0.156 typical gaps (standard deviations), 36.8% of unintended pregnanciesUnited Kingdom: 0.565 typical gaps (standard deviations), 36.2% of unintended pregnanciesGeorgia: 0.381 typical gaps (standard deviations), 86.1% of unintended pregnanciesGhana: -1.07 typical gaps (standard deviations), 35.9% of unintended pregnanciesGuinea: 0.435 typical gaps (standard deviations), 38.1% of unintended pregnanciesGambia, The: -0.359 typical gaps (standard deviations), 31.1% of unintended pregnanciesGuinea-Bissau: -0.51 typical gaps (standard deviations), 58.5% of unintended pregnanciesGreece: 0.503 typical gaps (standard deviations), 45.8% of unintended pregnanciesGuatemala: -0.409 typical gaps (standard deviations), 30.1% of unintended pregnanciesHonduras: -0.592 typical gaps (standard deviations), 30.6% of unintended pregnanciesCroatia: 0.7 typical gaps (standard deviations), 49.9% of unintended pregnanciesHaiti: -0.965 typical gaps (standard deviations), 35.5% of unintended pregnanciesHungary: 0.656 typical gaps (standard deviations), 49.4% of unintended pregnanciesIndonesia: 0.365 typical gaps (standard deviations), 63% of unintended pregnanciesIndia: 1.05 typical gaps (standard deviations), 77.1% of unintended pregnanciesIceland: 0.895 typical gaps (standard deviations), 39.1% of unintended pregnanciesItaly: 0.443 typical gaps (standard deviations), 67.1% of unintended pregnanciesJamaica: 0.109 typical gaps (standard deviations), 43.9% of unintended pregnanciesJapan: 0.55 typical gaps (standard deviations), 30.1% of unintended pregnanciesKazakhstan: 0.759 typical gaps (standard deviations), 82.1% of unintended pregnanciesKenya: -0.947 typical gaps (standard deviations), 38% of unintended pregnanciesKyrgyz Republic: 0.8 typical gaps (standard deviations), 79.2% of unintended pregnanciesKorea, Rep.: 0.544 typical gaps (standard deviations), 61.9% of unintended pregnanciesLao PDR: 0.261 typical gaps (standard deviations), 68.3% of unintended pregnanciesLiberia: -0.456 typical gaps (standard deviations), 40.4% of unintended pregnanciesSt. Lucia: -0.0757 typical gaps (standard deviations), 54.6% of unintended pregnanciesSri Lanka: 0.202 typical gaps (standard deviations), 72.3% of unintended pregnanciesLesotho: -1.22 typical gaps (standard deviations), 23.9% of unintended pregnanciesLithuania: 0.341 typical gaps (standard deviations), 27.7% of unintended pregnanciesLatvia: 0.473 typical gaps (standard deviations), 30.2% of unintended pregnanciesMoldova: 0.897 typical gaps (standard deviations), 70.6% of unintended pregnanciesMadagascar: -1.46 typical gaps (standard deviations), 62.8% of unintended pregnanciesMaldives: 0.754 typical gaps (standard deviations), 70.5% of unintended pregnanciesMexico: -0.0512 typical gaps (standard deviations), 50.9% of unintended pregnanciesNorth Macedonia: 0.412 typical gaps (standard deviations), 63.4% of unintended pregnanciesMali: -0.544 typical gaps (standard deviations), 33.5% of unintended pregnanciesMyanmar: 0.408 typical gaps (standard deviations), 74.2% of unintended pregnanciesMontenegro: 0.402 typical gaps (standard deviations), 54.2% of unintended pregnanciesMongolia: 0.623 typical gaps (standard deviations), 65.7% of unintended pregnanciesMozambique: -2.51 typical gaps (standard deviations), 46.7% of unintended pregnanciesMauritania: 0.336 typical gaps (standard deviations), 25.4% of unintended pregnanciesMalawi: -1.72 typical gaps (standard deviations), 27.4% of unintended pregnanciesNamibia: -1.55 typical gaps (standard deviations), 27.9% of unintended pregnanciesNiger: -1.01 typical gaps (standard deviations), 31.3% of unintended pregnanciesNigeria: -0.587 typical gaps (standard deviations), 48.2% of unintended pregnanciesNicaragua: -0.387 typical gaps (standard deviations), 27.5% of unintended pregnanciesNetherlands: 0.958 typical gaps (standard deviations), 40.8% of unintended pregnanciesNorway: 0.909 typical gaps (standard deviations), 31.7% of unintended pregnanciesNepal: 0.652 typical gaps (standard deviations), 69.4% of unintended pregnanciesPakistan: -0.0801 typical gaps (standard deviations), 60.9% of unintended pregnanciesPanama: -0.497 typical gaps (standard deviations), 41.3% of unintended pregnanciesPeru: 0.00216 typical gaps (standard deviations), 47.5% of unintended pregnanciesPhilippines: 0.0429 typical gaps (standard deviations), 50.5% of unintended pregnanciesPoland: 0.794 typical gaps (standard deviations), 36.6% of unintended pregnanciesPortugal: 0.479 typical gaps (standard deviations), 32.4% of unintended pregnanciesParaguay: -0.156 typical gaps (standard deviations), 51% of unintended pregnanciesRomania: 0.707 typical gaps (standard deviations), 71.2% of unintended pregnanciesRussian Federation: 0.539 typical gaps (standard deviations), 71.8% of unintended pregnanciesRwanda: -0.821 typical gaps (standard deviations), 28.7% of unintended pregnanciesSenegal: -0.104 typical gaps (standard deviations), 25.1% of unintended pregnanciesSolomon Islands: -0.732 typical gaps (standard deviations), 28% of unintended pregnanciesSierra Leone: -0.683 typical gaps (standard deviations), 51.5% of unintended pregnanciesEl Salvador: 0.0323 typical gaps (standard deviations), 41.5% of unintended pregnanciesSerbia: 0.524 typical gaps (standard deviations), 60.8% of unintended pregnanciesSao Tome and Principe: -0.236 typical gaps (standard deviations), 29.6% of unintended pregnanciesSuriname: 0.129 typical gaps (standard deviations), 46.5% of unintended pregnanciesSlovak Republic: 1.06 typical gaps (standard deviations), 26.2% of unintended pregnanciesSlovenia: 1.02 typical gaps (standard deviations), 24.4% of unintended pregnanciesSweden: 0.733 typical gaps (standard deviations), 48.3% of unintended pregnanciesEswatini: -1.85 typical gaps (standard deviations), 26.5% of unintended pregnanciesChad: -0.729 typical gaps (standard deviations), 29.5% of unintended pregnanciesTogo: -0.634 typical gaps (standard deviations), 32.2% of unintended pregnanciesThailand: 0.524 typical gaps (standard deviations), 64.4% of unintended pregnanciesTajikistan: 0.206 typical gaps (standard deviations), 71% of unintended pregnanciesTimor-Leste: -0.346 typical gaps (standard deviations), 67.8% of unintended pregnanciesTonga: 0.87 typical gaps (standard deviations), 52% of unintended pregnanciesTanzania: -1.21 typical gaps (standard deviations), 35.9% of unintended pregnanciesUganda: -1.16 typical gaps (standard deviations), 29.7% of unintended pregnanciesUkraine: 0.966 typical gaps (standard deviations), 75.9% of unintended pregnanciesUruguay: 0.134 typical gaps (standard deviations), 27.6% of unintended pregnanciesUnited States: 0.00761 typical gaps (standard deviations), 34.2% of unintended pregnanciesUzbekistan: 0.499 typical gaps (standard deviations), 80.2% of unintended pregnanciesViet Nam: 0.322 typical gaps (standard deviations), 74.5% of unintended pregnanciesVanuatu: 0.079 typical gaps (standard deviations), 45.4% of unintended pregnanciesSamoa: 0.098 typical gaps (standard deviations), 64.5% of unintended pregnanciesSouth Africa: -1.12 typical gaps (standard deviations), 36.6% of unintended pregnanciesZambia: -2.37 typical gaps (standard deviations), 28.2% of unintended pregnanciesZimbabwe: -1.72 typical gaps (standard deviations), 24.8% of unintended pregnanciesARMCODCZEGEOINDKAZMDGMOZSVKSVNSWZZMB

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted+0.4186.6e-7131
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted+0.3865.2e-6131
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income+0.4564.9e-8131
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income+0.4101.2e-6131

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 131 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: -0.038 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from +0.438 (without IND) to +0.477 (without COM). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: COM (+0.021).

Fragile: this link may not hold up.
  • much weaker within regions than across them (largely a between-region difference)

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific16+0.32
Europe & Central Asia41+0.01
Latin America & Caribbean23+0.25
Sub-Saharan Africa41+0.14

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third44+0.34
Middle third43+0.81
Richest third44+0.10

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians92+0.39
Muslims24+0.14

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France20-0.20
Never a European colony14+0.61
Spain17+0.24
United Kingdom32+0.79

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = +0.465 after dropping 3 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 0years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

Not enough history inside each country to look at this over time. That needs countries measured for several years in a row, and at least one of these measures is measured too rarely.

The data


typical gaps (standard deviations)
% of unintended pregnancies		Years
Slovak Republic SVK1.0626.2%2023, 2019
India IND1.0577.1%2023, 2019
Belarus BLR1.0356%2020, 2019
Slovenia SVN1.0224.4%2023, 2019
Ukraine UKR0.96675.9%2020, 2019
Czechia CZE0.9619.7%2023, 2019
Netherlands NLD0.95840.8%2021, 2019
Norway NOR0.90931.7%2023, 2019
Moldova MDA0.89770.6%2024, 2019
Iceland ISL0.89539.1%2019
Belgium BEL0.89537.1%2023, 2019
Tonga TON0.8752%2021, 2019
Finland FIN0.85724.8%2023, 2019
Armenia ARM0.84281.8%2024, 2019
Kyrgyz Republic KGZ0.879.2%2024, 2019

wdi
Bearak, J. M., Popinchalk, A., Beavin, C. et al. (2022), 'Country-specific estimates of unintended pregnancy and abortion incidence: a global comparative analysis of levels in 2015-2019', BMJ Global Health 7(3), e007151. Guttmacher Institute. Supplementary appendix, tables A3-A5.

Sources

Equality score

Equality score

PlaceStats · via PlaceStats · Derived work; each member keeps its own licence · updated recomputed with the panel

The average of 2 measures from 1 publisher. Each measure is first put on a common scale: 0 is the average country in an average year, and 1 is a typical gap between countries (a standard deviation). Each is turned so that higher is better. Measures are averaged within each publisher first, so a publisher with many measures does not count for more. Members: Extreme poverty rate, Gini index.

Unintended pregnancies ending in abortion

Share of unintended pregnancies ending in abortion (model estimate, 2015-2019)

Guttmacher Institute (Bearak et al. 2022, BMJ Global Health) · CC BY-NC 4.0 · updated one edition (2015-2019 estimates, published 2022)

Of the unintended pregnancies in the abortion rate's model, the share that ended in abortion, averaged over 2015-2019 (Guttmacher Institute). The rest ended in a birth or a miscarriage. Like the other two, it is an estimate with a range. No "better" direction is set.

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2011–2025. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 14,952 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Equality score and Unintended pregnancies ending in abortion

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Equality score changes Unintended pregnancies ending in abortion, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Equality score or Unintended pregnancies ending in abortion