placestats

Population 65+ vs. Youth not in work or study

Holds up after adjusting for income

Across 175 countries, Population 65+ and Youth not in work or study rise and fall together at r = -0.57 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). Comparing only countries with similar income (GDP per person) shrinks it to -0.27 (q = 0.025, allowing for the many pairs tested). Much of the first figure is that both measures rise with national income, but a weak negative link remains.

Comparing countries across the middle half of population 65+, 4.05% to 17.5% of population, youth not in work or study is better by 11.9% of 15 to 24 year olds at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 7.28% of 15 to 24 year olds.

Link before adjusting (r)-0.571p = 1.6e-16 · 175 countries
After adjusting for national income-0.267p = 0.000 · likely range [-0.40, -0.12]
p, allowing for regions0.001standard error 0.048 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.025across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Population 65+ · % of populationlink with income +0.76 · high
Youth not in work or study · % of 15 to 24 year oldslink with income -0.63 · high

Both of these rise and fall closely with national income, so a strong link between them before adjusting was close to certain. Read the adjusted figure, not the first one.

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Population 65+ · % of population →Youth not in work or study · % of 15 to 24 year olds →1.79%30%3.14%65.7%Aruba: 17.8% of population, 16.6% of 15 to 24 year oldsAfghanistan: 2.43% of population, 43.8% of 15 to 24 year oldsAngola: 2.89% of population, 24.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsAlbania: 17.6% of population, 21% of 15 to 24 year oldsUnited Arab Emirates: 1.79% of population, 8.92% of 15 to 24 year oldsArgentina: 12.6% of population, 15.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsArmenia: 14.4% of population, 20.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsAntigua and Barbuda: 12.3% of population, 20.8% of 15 to 24 year oldsAustralia: 18.1% of population, 8.53% of 15 to 24 year oldsAustria: 21.1% of population, 13.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsAzerbaijan: 9.17% of population, 9.64% of 15 to 24 year oldsBurundi: 2.55% of population, 11.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsBelgium: 21% of population, 8.15% of 15 to 24 year oldsBenin: 3.15% of population, 14.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsBurkina Faso: 2.68% of population, 24.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsBangladesh: 6.67% of population, 15.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsBulgaria: 22.2% of population, 10.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsBosnia and Herzegovina: 22.9% of population, 14.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsBelarus: 18.3% of population, 65.7% of 15 to 24 year oldsBelize: 5.23% of population, 24.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsBermuda: 22.6% of population, 6.79% of 15 to 24 year oldsBolivia: 5.74% of population, 8.02% of 15 to 24 year oldsBrazil: 11.5% of population, 18.7% of 15 to 24 year oldsBarbados: 17.1% of population, 29% of 15 to 24 year oldsBrunei Darussalam: 7.24% of population, 19% of 15 to 24 year oldsBhutan: 6.63% of population, 15.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsBotswana: 4.08% of population, 38% of 15 to 24 year oldsCanada: 20.3% of population, 13.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsSwitzerland: 20.4% of population, 6.99% of 15 to 24 year oldsChile: 14.6% of population, 13.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsCote d'Ivoire: 2.65% of population, 18.8% of 15 to 24 year oldsCameroon: 2.82% of population, 23.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsCongo, Dem. Rep.: 3.08% of population, 31.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsColombia: 10.2% of population, 22% of 15 to 24 year oldsComoros: 4.45% of population, 21.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsCabo Verde: 7.15% of population, 28% of 15 to 24 year oldsCosta Rica: 12.8% of population, 19.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsCuracao: 17.3% of population, 17.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsCyprus: 14.9% of population, 13.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsCzechia: 21.2% of population, 4.62% of 15 to 24 year oldsGermany: 23.7% of population, 7.58% of 15 to 24 year oldsDjibouti: 4.97% of population, 44% of 15 to 24 year oldsDenmark: 21.1% of population, 6.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsDominican Republic: 8.19% of population, 24.7% of 15 to 24 year oldsAlgeria: 6.81% of population, 20.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsEcuador: 8.6% of population, 17.7% of 15 to 24 year oldsEgypt, Arab Rep.: 5.27% of population, 23.8% of 15 to 24 year oldsSpain: 21.6% of population, 10.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsEstonia: 21.8% of population, 10.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsEthiopia: 3.3% of population, 17.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsFinland: 24.2% of population, 8.28% of 15 to 24 year oldsFiji: 6.63% of population, 20.8% of 15 to 24 year oldsFrance: 22.5% of population, 12.6% of 15 to 24 year oldsMicronesia, Fed. Sts.: 6.18% of population, 28.7% of 15 to 24 year oldsGabon: 4.13% of population, 20.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsUnited Kingdom: 19.7% of population, 14.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsGeorgia: 16% of population, 14.7% of 15 to 24 year oldsGhana: 3.79% of population, 23.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsGuinea: 3.47% of population, 34.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsGambia, The: 3.18% of population, 36.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsGuinea-Bissau: 3.24% of population, 13.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsGreece: 24.4% of population, 10.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsGrenada: 12.6% of population, 20.1% of 15 to 24 year oldsGuatemala: 4.96% of population, 24% of 15 to 24 year oldsGuyana: 6.98% of population, 44.8% of 15 to 24 year oldsHong Kong SAR, China: 23.7% of population, 5.95% of 15 to 24 year oldsHonduras: 4.54% of population, 29% of 15 to 24 year oldsCroatia: 23.6% of population, 8.08% of 15 to 24 year oldsHaiti: 4.79% of population, 21.1% of 15 to 24 year oldsHungary: 21.2% of population, 9.98% of 15 to 24 year oldsIndonesia: 7.54% of population, 21.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsIndia: 7.38% of population, 25.6% of 15 to 24 year oldsIreland: 16.2% of population, 5.67% of 15 to 24 year oldsIran, Islamic Rep.: 8.58% of population, 24.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsIraq: 3.45% of population, 36.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsIceland: 16% of population, 3.98% of 15 to 24 year oldsIsrael: 12.7% of population, 15.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsItaly: 25.1% of population, 12% of 15 to 24 year oldsJamaica: 8.58% of population, 19.7% of 15 to 24 year oldsJordan: 4.75% of population, 29.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsJapan: 30% of population, 3.14% of 15 to 24 year oldsKazakhstan: 9% of population, 9.49% of 15 to 24 year oldsKenya: 3.02% of population, 18.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsKyrgyz Republic: 5.97% of population, 19.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsCambodia: 6.38% of population, 6.32% of 15 to 24 year oldsKiribati: 4.38% of population, 35.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsLao PDR: 4.81% of population, 22.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsLebanon: 10.4% of population, 23.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsLiberia: 3.33% of population, 39.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsSt. Lucia: 9.96% of population, 25.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsSri Lanka: 12.5% of population, 17.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsLesotho: 3.88% of population, 38% of 15 to 24 year oldsLithuania: 20.7% of population, 14.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsLuxembourg: 15.8% of population, 10.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsLatvia: 22.2% of population, 9.89% of 15 to 24 year oldsMacao SAR, China: 15.1% of population, 4.96% of 15 to 24 year oldsMorocco: 8.45% of population, 35.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsMoldova: 16.9% of population, 9.05% of 15 to 24 year oldsMadagascar: 3.47% of population, 24.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsMaldives: 4.96% of population, 26.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsMexico: 8.52% of population, 16.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsMarshall Islands: 4.88% of population, 40% of 15 to 24 year oldsNorth Macedonia: 18.5% of population, 19.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsMali: 2.36% of population, 30.1% of 15 to 24 year oldsMalta: 20.5% of population, 7.84% of 15 to 24 year oldsMyanmar: 7.52% of population, 15% of 15 to 24 year oldsMontenegro: 18.3% of population, 14.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsMongolia: 5.43% of population, 9.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsMozambique: 2.73% of population, 19.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsMauritania: 3.25% of population, 44.1% of 15 to 24 year oldsMauritius: 14.1% of population, 13.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsMalawi: 2.59% of population, 39.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsMalaysia: 8.03% of population, 10.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsNamibia: 3.79% of population, 31.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsNiger: 2.62% of population, 15.7% of 15 to 24 year oldsNigeria: 3.07% of population, 11.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsNicaragua: 5.7% of population, 24.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsNetherlands: 20.9% of population, 4.14% of 15 to 24 year oldsNorway: 19.1% of population, 5.82% of 15 to 24 year oldsNepal: 6.62% of population, 34.8% of 15 to 24 year oldsNaoero: 3.01% of population, 50.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsNew Zealand: 17.6% of population, 12.8% of 15 to 24 year oldsOman: 2.69% of population, 25.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsPakistan: 4.36% of population, 28.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsPanama: 9.66% of population, 15.1% of 15 to 24 year oldsPeru: 9.47% of population, 22.8% of 15 to 24 year oldsPhilippines: 5.72% of population, 12.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsPalau: 11.8% of population, 11.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsPapua New Guinea: 3.59% of population, 27.7% of 15 to 24 year oldsPoland: 20.8% of population, 10.1% of 15 to 24 year oldsPuerto Rico (US): 25.3% of population, 19.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsPortugal: 24.9% of population, 7.02% of 15 to 24 year oldsParaguay: 6.72% of population, 18.6% of 15 to 24 year oldsWest Bank and Gaza: 3.85% of population, 25.8% of 15 to 24 year oldsRomania: 20.1% of population, 17% of 15 to 24 year oldsRussian Federation: 17.8% of population, 6.68% of 15 to 24 year oldsRwanda: 4.02% of population, 15.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsSaudi Arabia: 3.06% of population, 16.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsSudan: 3.39% of population, 46.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsSenegal: 3.65% of population, 35.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsSingapore: 14.2% of population, 6.46% of 15 to 24 year oldsSolomon Islands: 3.67% of population, 7.04% of 15 to 24 year oldsSierra Leone: 3.28% of population, 25.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsEl Salvador: 8.31% of population, 20.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsSomalia, Fed. Rep.: 2.62% of population, 51% of 15 to 24 year oldsSerbia: 23.1% of population, 12.7% of 15 to 24 year oldsSao Tome and Principe: 3.94% of population, 43.8% of 15 to 24 year oldsSuriname: 8.19% of population, 18.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsSlovak Republic: 19% of population, 8.75% of 15 to 24 year oldsSlovenia: 22.2% of population, 7.13% of 15 to 24 year oldsSweden: 20.9% of population, 5.58% of 15 to 24 year oldsEswatini: 4.35% of population, 36.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsSeychelles: 8.75% of population, 16.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsChad: 2.12% of population, 42.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsTogo: 3.48% of population, 13% of 15 to 24 year oldsThailand: 16% of population, 12.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsTajikistan: 4.07% of population, 41.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsTimor-Leste: 5.23% of population, 29.1% of 15 to 24 year oldsTonga: 6.85% of population, 25.6% of 15 to 24 year oldsTrinidad and Tobago: 12.9% of population, 15.8% of 15 to 24 year oldsTunisia: 9.94% of population, 22.6% of 15 to 24 year oldsTurkiye: 10.6% of population, 22.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsTuvalu: 7.04% of population, 34.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsTanzania: 3.04% of population, 12.8% of 15 to 24 year oldsUganda: 2.23% of population, 13.8% of 15 to 24 year oldsUkraine: 19% of population, 16.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsUruguay: 16.3% of population, 14% of 15 to 24 year oldsUnited States: 18.4% of population, 11.6% of 15 to 24 year oldsViet Nam: 9.49% of population, 10.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsVanuatu: 4.38% of population, 29.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsSamoa: 6.07% of population, 30.1% of 15 to 24 year oldsKosovo: 10.5% of population, 30% of 15 to 24 year oldsSouth Africa: 6.89% of population, 34.6% of 15 to 24 year oldsZambia: 2% of population, 26.7% of 15 to 24 year oldsZimbabwe: 3.56% of population, 36% of 15 to 24 year oldsAREBDIBLRGUYHKGJPNNRUPRIPRTSDNSLBSOM

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted-0.5711.6e-16175
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted-0.6075.0e-19175
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income-0.2670.000175
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income-0.2080.006175

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 175 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.303 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from -0.323 (without BLR) to -0.227 (without GUY). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: BLR (-0.056).

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific29-0.36
Europe & Central Asia47-0.16
Latin America & Caribbean30-0.38
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan17-0.33
Sub-Saharan Africa43-0.08

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third59-0.02
Middle third58-0.17
Richest third58-0.51

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians106-0.31
Muslims43-0.10

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France22-0.26
Never a European colony17-0.38
Spain19+0.11
United Kingdom55-0.25

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = -0.323 after dropping 3 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 36years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

Within countries over time, there is no link that is clearly more than chance (r = -0.079, comparing each country only with itself over the years, and each year only with the same year elsewhere). Whatever the cross-country picture shows, countries whose population 65+ moved did not tend to see their youth not in work or study move with it.

Across countries (adjusted)-0.267for comparison
Within countries-0.300each country vs itself
…and vs the same year elsewhere-0.079q = 0.222 · 123 countries
Year-on-year changes-0.006q = 0.879
Read with care.
  • Almost all of this indicator's variation is between countries, not within them, so the within-country estimate rests on a small part of the data.
  • Much of the within-country association disappears once shared global year effects are removed, which points to a common worldwide trend rather than a country-level relationship.

2,281 country-years (one country in one year), 123 countries, 1990–2025, about 19 years each on average. Share of the variation that happens within countries over time: 9% for Population 65+, 22% for Youth not in work or study. The margins of error allow for each country appearing many times, and for each year’s value being close to the year before.

Year-to-year changes are a cautious test, not a final answer. Looking only at changes from one year to the next removes each country’s own trends. But it also makes measurement mistakes louder, which pulls the results toward zero. A near-zero result here is weak evidence of no link, not proof.

With one measure years behind the other

0.10−0.1-100+10years Youth not in work or study trails Population 65+ →lag -10: r = -0.058 (n = 1,288)lag -9: r = -0.054 (n = 1,397)lag -8: r = -0.054 (n = 1,498)lag -7: r = -0.050 (n = 1,585)lag -6: r = -0.058 (n = 1,695)lag -5: r = -0.060 (n = 1,813)lag -4: r = -0.053 (n = 1,918)lag -3: r = -0.068 (n = 2,043)lag -2: r = -0.071 (n = 2,152)lag -1: r = -0.079 (n = 2,245)lag +0: r = -0.079 (n = 2,281)lag +1: r = -0.080 (n = 2,265)lag +2: r = -0.084 (n = 2,248)lag +3: r = -0.085 (n = 2,232)lag +4: r = -0.085 (n = 2,218)lag +5: r = -0.079 (n = 2,200)lag +6: r = -0.090 (n = 2,182)lag +7: r = -0.088 (n = 2,157)lag +8: r = -0.088 (n = 2,129)lag +9: r = -0.092 (n = 2,104)lag +10: r = -0.096 (n = 2,068)

Same year (lag 0): -0.079. A peak away from zero does not show which comes first. These series change slowly — this year’s value is close to last year’s. That makes the curve smooth and nearly symmetric, whatever produced the data. Even a sharp peak at one lag (a gap of some years) would not prove that one measure changes the other.

This curve peaks at the edge of the window (lag +10), so it is still drifting where the search stops. That pattern usually reflects a slow trend left over in the data, not a link with real timing. The peak value should not be read as the “true” link at the right lag.

The data


% of population
% of 15 to 24 year olds		Years
Japan JPN30%3.14%2025, 2019
Puerto Rico (US) PRI25.3%19.5%2025, 2020
Italy ITA25.1%12%2025, 2024
Portugal PRT24.9%7.02%2025
Greece GRC24.4%10.4%2025
Finland FIN24.2%8.28%2025, 2024
Germany DEU23.7%7.58%2025, 2024
Hong Kong SAR, China HKG23.7%5.95%2025
Croatia HRV23.6%8.08%2025, 2024
Serbia SRB23.1%12.7%2025
Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH22.9%14.3%2025, 2024
Bermuda BMU22.6%6.79%2025, 2010
France FRA22.5%12.6%2025, 2024
Bulgaria BGR22.2%10.9%2025, 2024
Slovenia SVN22.2%7.13%2025, 2024

World Bank, World Development Indicators
World Bank, World Development Indicators

Sources

Population 65+

Population ages 65 and above (% of total)

World Bank · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

Youth not in work or study

Share of youth not in education, employment or training, total (% of youth population)

International Labour Organization · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

From labour force surveys, so yearly for about a hundred countries and occasional elsewhere.

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2010–2025. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Population 65+ and Youth not in work or study

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Population 65+ changes Youth not in work or study, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Population 65+ or Youth not in work or study