placestats

Political stability vs. Religion very important

Holds up after adjusting for income

A country is not a person. Countries where more people are counted as belonging to this group also tend to differ on the other measure, and that is all. It does not follow that the people in the group are the people with the different score. Making that leap is called the ecological fallacy: reading a pattern across places as a fact about individual people. It is the most common misuse of this kind of data. Religion also varies strongly with region, history and national income, so much of what looks religious here is really those. That is what the adjusted figures are for. The religion shares are estimates for two years only, and the survey questions are asked in rounds that can be ten years apart.

Across 107 countries, Political stability and Religion very important rise and fall together at r = -0.67 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). Comparing only countries with similar income (GDP per person) shrinks it to -0.37 (q = 0.0094, allowing for the many pairs tested). Much of the first figure is that both measures rise with national income, but a weak negative link remains.

Comparing countries across the middle half of religion very important, 15.5% to 70% of respondents, political stability is worse by 1.05 points at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 0.462 points.

Link before adjusting (r)-0.672p = 2.4e-15 · 107 countries
After adjusting for national income-0.369p = 9.9e-5 · likely range [-0.52, -0.19]
p, allowing for regions0.001standard error 0.060 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.009across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Political stability · index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5)link with income +0.56 · moderate
Religion very important · % of respondentslink with income -0.66 · high

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Political stability · index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5) →Religion very important · % of respondents →-2.491.543.25%98.9%Albania: 0.0205 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 24.4% of respondentsAndorra: 1.54 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 9.46% of respondentsArgentina: -0.17 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 24.3% of respondentsArmenia: -0.723 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 52.7% of respondentsAustralia: 0.793 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 13.8% of respondentsAustria: 0.492 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 13.9% of respondentsAzerbaijan: -0.14 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 15.9% of respondentsBelgium: 0.121 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 13.2% of respondentsBurkina Faso: -1.91 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 82.9% of respondentsBangladesh: -1.46 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 94.2% of respondentsBulgaria: 0.0399 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 21.9% of respondentsBosnia and Herzegovina: -0.501 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 39.8% of respondentsBelarus: -0.377 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 19.7% of respondentsBolivia: -0.546 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 58.4% of respondentsBrazil: -0.521 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 45.1% of respondentsCanada: 0.598 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 15.5% of respondentsSwitzerland: 0.981 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 11.3% of respondentsChile: 0.121 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 20.7% of respondentsChina: -0.153 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 3.25% of respondentsColombia: -0.971 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 58.4% of respondentsCyprus: 0.386 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 50.5% of respondentsCzechia: 0.972 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 7.67% of respondentsGermany: 0.124 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 13.5% of respondentsDenmark: 0.769 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 5.73% of respondentsAlgeria: -0.694 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 90.7% of respondentsEcuador: -0.721 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 53.6% of respondentsEgypt, Arab Rep.: -0.978 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 97.3% of respondentsSpain: -0.00299 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 17.2% of respondentsEstonia: 0.7 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 6.54% of respondentsEthiopia: -1.88 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 92.8% of respondentsFinland: 0.833 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 11% of respondentsFrance: -0.241 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 14.3% of respondentsUnited Kingdom: 0.258 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 15.6% of respondentsGeorgia: -0.613 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 69.6% of respondentsGhana: 0.0115 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 91.1% of respondentsGreece: 0.139 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 54.8% of respondentsGuatemala: -0.21 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 51.5% of respondentsHong Kong SAR, China: 0.631 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 10.7% of respondentsCroatia: 0.581 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 20.6% of respondentsHaiti: -1.2 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 28% of respondentsHungary: 0.436 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 16.1% of respondentsIndonesia: -0.609 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 98.1% of respondentsIndia: -0.786 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 64.2% of respondentsIreland: 0.71 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 27.7% of respondentsIran, Islamic Rep.: -1.58 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 70.5% of respondentsIraq: -2.06 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 87.6% of respondentsIceland: 1.21 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 13.2% of respondentsItaly: 0.309 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 24.9% of respondentsJordan: -0.35 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 95.4% of respondentsJapan: 1.13 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 4.58% of respondentsKazakhstan: -0.283 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 28.7% of respondentsKenya: -1.36 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 86.7% of respondentsKyrgyz Republic: -0.505 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 56% of respondentsKorea, Rep.: 0.639 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 10.3% of respondentsKuwait: 0.294 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 86.5% of respondentsLebanon: -1.39 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 64.1% of respondentsLibya: -1.9 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 97.9% of respondentsLithuania: 0.939 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 12.2% of respondentsLuxembourg: 1.07 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 16.8% of respondentsLatvia: 0.62 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 8.84% of respondentsMacao SAR, China: 1.05 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 6.63% of respondentsMorocco: -0.441 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 89% of respondentsMoldova: -0.345 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 32.9% of respondentsMaldives: -0.0545 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 95.7% of respondentsMexico: -0.715 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 50.5% of respondentsNorth Macedonia: 0.156 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 53.7% of respondentsMali: -2.49 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 88.2% of respondentsMalta: 0.805 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 58.7% of respondentsMyanmar: -2.09 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 81% of respondentsMontenegro: 0.332 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 63.1% of respondentsMongolia: 0.42 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 8.76% of respondentsMalaysia: 0.385 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 72.4% of respondentsNigeria: -2 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 93.4% of respondentsNicaragua: -0.0694 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 60% of respondentsNetherlands: 0.428 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 11.9% of respondentsNorway: 0.903 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 11.2% of respondentsNew Zealand: 1.15 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 14.5% of respondentsPakistan: -2.06 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 89.6% of respondentsPeru: -0.654 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 44.6% of respondentsPhilippines: -0.774 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 88.9% of respondentsPoland: 0.499 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 37.3% of respondentsPuerto Rico (US): 0.438 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 64.9% of respondentsPortugal: 0.537 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 20.1% of respondentsWest Bank and Gaza: -1.88 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 87.5% of respondentsQatar: 0.951 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 98.9% of respondentsRomania: 0.159 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 48.2% of respondentsRussian Federation: -0.903 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 17.4% of respondentsRwanda: -0.0437 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 40.3% of respondentsSingapore: 1.23 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 34% of respondentsSerbia: -0.169 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 25.3% of respondentsSlovak Republic: 0.634 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 22.2% of respondentsSlovenia: 0.721 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 11.5% of respondentsSweden: 0.604 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 9.48% of respondentsThailand: -0.683 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 41.8% of respondentsTajikistan: -0.276 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 63.1% of respondentsTrinidad and Tobago: 0.36 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 78.5% of respondentsTunisia: -0.925 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 90.6% of respondentsTurkiye: -0.971 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 60% of respondentsUkraine: -0.432 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 19.5% of respondentsUruguay: 1.28 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 19.5% of respondentsUnited States: -0.0951 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 37.1% of respondentsUzbekistan: -0.0267 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 45.1% of respondentsViet Nam: 0.00567 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 12.3% of respondentsKosovo: -0.322 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 47.1% of respondentsSouth Africa: -0.617 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 55.8% of respondentsZambia: -0.101 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 75.7% of respondentsZimbabwe: -1.02 index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5), 87.7% of respondentsANDCHNHTIJPNKWTLBYMACMDVMLINGAQATRUS

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted-0.6722.4e-15107
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted-0.6751.6e-15107
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income-0.3699.9e-5107
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income-0.3230.001107

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 107 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.303 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from -0.394 (without GHA) to -0.338 (without RWA). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: RWA (+0.031).

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific15-0.45
Europe & Central Asia49-0.29
Latin America & Caribbean14-0.20
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan14+0.03

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third36-0.49
Middle third35-0.30
Richest third36-0.18

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians62-0.18
Muslims29-0.29

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Never a European colony15-0.78
Spain12-0.46
United Kingdom25-0.29

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = -0.369 after dropping 0 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 0years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

Not enough history inside each country to look at this over time. That needs countries measured for several years in a row, and at least one of these measures is measured too rarely.

The data


index (approx. -2.5 to 2.5)

% of respondents
Years
Andorra AND1.549.46%2024, 2022
Uruguay URY1.2819.5%2024, 2022
Singapore SGP1.2334%2024, 2022
Iceland ISL1.2113.2%2024, 2022
New Zealand NZL1.1514.5%2024, 2022
Japan JPN1.134.58%2024, 2022
Luxembourg LUX1.0716.8%2024, 2010
Macao SAR, China MAC1.056.63%2024, 2022
Switzerland CHE0.98111.3%2024, 2022
Czechia CZE0.9727.67%2024, 2022
Qatar QAT0.95198.9%2024, 2014
Lithuania LTU0.93912.2%2024, 2022
Norway NOR0.90311.2%2024, 2022
Finland FIN0.83311%2024, 2022
Malta MLT0.80558.7%2024, 2010

Kaufmann, D. and A. Kraay, Worldwide Governance Indicators, World Bank
Haerpfer, C. et al., World Values Survey; EVS, European Values Study

Sources

Political stability

Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism (estimate)

World Bank · CC BY 4.0 · updated annual

Religion very important

Share saying religion is very important in their life

World Values Survey Association and European Values Study · via Our World in Data · Free for non-commercial use with attribution · updated irregular (survey waves, roughly every 5 years)

The strongest of four answers. The others are "rather", "not very" and "not at all" important. Thinking religion is important is different from attending services, and the gap between them is the interesting part. The United States reports high importance while attendance falls. Several Catholic countries show the reverse. No "better" direction is set, for the same reason as attendance. The survey runs in waves, not every year.

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2010–2024. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Political stability and Religion very important

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Political stability changes Religion very important, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Political stability or Religion very important