placestats

Physicians vs. Youth not in work or study

Fades after adjusting for income

Across 168 countries, Physicians and Youth not in work or study rise and fall together at r = -0.52 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). Comparing only countries with similar income (GDP per person) shrinks it to -0.17, which could easily be chance (q = 0.13, allowing for the many pairs tested, and allowing for countries in the same region being alike). So the first figure mostly shows richer countries differing from poorer ones, not a link between these two things.

Comparing countries across the middle half of physicians, 0.38 to 3.46 per 1,000 people, youth not in work or study is better by 10.7% of 15 to 24 year olds at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 4.77% of 15 to 24 year olds.

Link before adjusting (r)-0.518p = 6.6e-13 · 168 countries
After adjusting for national income-0.165p = 0.033 · likely range [-0.31, -0.01]
p, allowing for regions0.028standard error 0.057 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.131across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Physicians · per 1,000 peoplelink with income +0.85 · proxy
Youth not in work or study · % of 15 to 24 year oldslink with income -0.63 · high

Both of these rise and fall closely with national income, so a strong link between them before adjusting was close to certain. Read the adjusted figure, not the first one.

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Physicians · per 1,000 people →Youth not in work or study · % of 15 to 24 year olds →0.0386.63.14%65.7%Afghanistan: 0.317 per 1,000 people, 43.8% of 15 to 24 year oldsAngola: 0.244 per 1,000 people, 24.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsAlbania: 1.88 per 1,000 people, 21% of 15 to 24 year oldsUnited Arab Emirates: 2.99 per 1,000 people, 8.92% of 15 to 24 year oldsArgentina: 5.11 per 1,000 people, 15.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsArmenia: 3.36 per 1,000 people, 20.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsAntigua and Barbuda: 2.92 per 1,000 people, 20.8% of 15 to 24 year oldsAustralia: 4.09 per 1,000 people, 8.53% of 15 to 24 year oldsAustria: 5.51 per 1,000 people, 13.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsAzerbaijan: 3.19 per 1,000 people, 9.64% of 15 to 24 year oldsBurundi: 0.078 per 1,000 people, 11.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsBelgium: 3.57 per 1,000 people, 8.15% of 15 to 24 year oldsBenin: 0.216 per 1,000 people, 14.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsBurkina Faso: 0.148 per 1,000 people, 24.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsBangladesh: 0.722 per 1,000 people, 15.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsBulgaria: 4.33 per 1,000 people, 10.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsBosnia and Herzegovina: 2.58 per 1,000 people, 14.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsBelarus: 4.72 per 1,000 people, 65.7% of 15 to 24 year oldsBelize: 1.09 per 1,000 people, 24.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsBolivia: 1.28 per 1,000 people, 8.02% of 15 to 24 year oldsBrazil: 2.36 per 1,000 people, 18.7% of 15 to 24 year oldsBarbados: 2.96 per 1,000 people, 29% of 15 to 24 year oldsBrunei Darussalam: 1.89 per 1,000 people, 19% of 15 to 24 year oldsBhutan: 0.553 per 1,000 people, 15.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsBotswana: 0.379 per 1,000 people, 38% of 15 to 24 year oldsCanada: 2.82 per 1,000 people, 13.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsSwitzerland: 4.48 per 1,000 people, 6.99% of 15 to 24 year oldsChile: 3.33 per 1,000 people, 13.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsCote d'Ivoire: 0.166 per 1,000 people, 18.8% of 15 to 24 year oldsCameroon: 0.136 per 1,000 people, 23.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsCongo, Dem. Rep.: 0.208 per 1,000 people, 31.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsColombia: 2.54 per 1,000 people, 22% of 15 to 24 year oldsComoros: 0.424 per 1,000 people, 21.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsCabo Verde: 0.73 per 1,000 people, 28% of 15 to 24 year oldsCosta Rica: 2.69 per 1,000 people, 19.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsCyprus: 3.56 per 1,000 people, 13.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsCzechia: 4.35 per 1,000 people, 4.62% of 15 to 24 year oldsGermany: 4.53 per 1,000 people, 7.58% of 15 to 24 year oldsDjibouti: 0.211 per 1,000 people, 44% of 15 to 24 year oldsDenmark: 4.5 per 1,000 people, 6.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsDominican Republic: 2.43 per 1,000 people, 24.7% of 15 to 24 year oldsAlgeria: 1.66 per 1,000 people, 20.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsEcuador: 2.31 per 1,000 people, 17.7% of 15 to 24 year oldsEgypt, Arab Rep.: 0.671 per 1,000 people, 23.8% of 15 to 24 year oldsSpain: 4.29 per 1,000 people, 10.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsEstonia: 3.47 per 1,000 people, 10.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsEthiopia: 0.143 per 1,000 people, 17.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsFinland: 3.61 per 1,000 people, 8.28% of 15 to 24 year oldsFiji: 0.813 per 1,000 people, 20.8% of 15 to 24 year oldsFrance: 3.28 per 1,000 people, 12.6% of 15 to 24 year oldsMicronesia, Fed. Sts.: 0.974 per 1,000 people, 28.7% of 15 to 24 year oldsGabon: 0.521 per 1,000 people, 20.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsUnited Kingdom: 3.3 per 1,000 people, 14.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsGeorgia: 5.64 per 1,000 people, 14.7% of 15 to 24 year oldsGhana: 0.266 per 1,000 people, 23.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsGuinea: 0.21 per 1,000 people, 34.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsGambia, The: 0.09 per 1,000 people, 36.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsGuinea-Bissau: 0.252 per 1,000 people, 13.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsGreece: 6.58 per 1,000 people, 10.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsGrenada: 1.38 per 1,000 people, 20.1% of 15 to 24 year oldsGuatemala: 1.28 per 1,000 people, 24% of 15 to 24 year oldsGuyana: 1.39 per 1,000 people, 44.8% of 15 to 24 year oldsHonduras: 0.489 per 1,000 people, 29% of 15 to 24 year oldsCroatia: 3.91 per 1,000 people, 8.08% of 15 to 24 year oldsHaiti: 0.292 per 1,000 people, 21.1% of 15 to 24 year oldsHungary: 3.46 per 1,000 people, 9.98% of 15 to 24 year oldsIndonesia: 0.524 per 1,000 people, 21.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsIndia: 0.723 per 1,000 people, 25.6% of 15 to 24 year oldsIreland: 3.88 per 1,000 people, 5.67% of 15 to 24 year oldsIran, Islamic Rep.: 1.81 per 1,000 people, 24.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsIraq: 1.02 per 1,000 people, 36.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsIceland: 4.37 per 1,000 people, 3.98% of 15 to 24 year oldsIsrael: 3.8 per 1,000 people, 15.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsItaly: 4.19 per 1,000 people, 12% of 15 to 24 year oldsJamaica: 0.46 per 1,000 people, 19.7% of 15 to 24 year oldsJordan: 2.85 per 1,000 people, 29.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsJapan: 2.65 per 1,000 people, 3.14% of 15 to 24 year oldsKazakhstan: 3.75 per 1,000 people, 9.49% of 15 to 24 year oldsKenya: 0.289 per 1,000 people, 18.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsKyrgyz Republic: 1.57 per 1,000 people, 19.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsCambodia: 0.211 per 1,000 people, 6.32% of 15 to 24 year oldsKiribati: 0.193 per 1,000 people, 35.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsLao PDR: 0.331 per 1,000 people, 22.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsLebanon: 2.68 per 1,000 people, 23.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsLiberia: 0.178 per 1,000 people, 39.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsSt. Lucia: 4.23 per 1,000 people, 25.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsSri Lanka: 1.14 per 1,000 people, 17.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsLesotho: 0.235 per 1,000 people, 38% of 15 to 24 year oldsLithuania: 4.47 per 1,000 people, 14.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsLuxembourg: 2.98 per 1,000 people, 10.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsLatvia: 3.4 per 1,000 people, 9.89% of 15 to 24 year oldsMorocco: 0.74 per 1,000 people, 35.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsMoldova: 4.02 per 1,000 people, 9.05% of 15 to 24 year oldsMadagascar: 0.172 per 1,000 people, 24.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsMaldives: 2.23 per 1,000 people, 26.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsMexico: 2.59 per 1,000 people, 16.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsMarshall Islands: 0.467 per 1,000 people, 40% of 15 to 24 year oldsNorth Macedonia: 2.94 per 1,000 people, 19.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsMali: 0.188 per 1,000 people, 30.1% of 15 to 24 year oldsMalta: 4.51 per 1,000 people, 7.84% of 15 to 24 year oldsMyanmar: 0.757 per 1,000 people, 15% of 15 to 24 year oldsMontenegro: 2.78 per 1,000 people, 14.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsMongolia: 4.13 per 1,000 people, 9.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsMozambique: 0.175 per 1,000 people, 19.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsMauritania: 0.261 per 1,000 people, 44.1% of 15 to 24 year oldsMauritius: 1.44 per 1,000 people, 13.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsMalawi: 0.054 per 1,000 people, 39.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsMalaysia: 2.34 per 1,000 people, 10.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsNamibia: 0.553 per 1,000 people, 31.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsNiger: 0.038 per 1,000 people, 15.7% of 15 to 24 year oldsNigeria: 0.38 per 1,000 people, 11.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsNicaragua: 0.682 per 1,000 people, 24.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsNetherlands: 3.88 per 1,000 people, 4.14% of 15 to 24 year oldsNorway: 4.97 per 1,000 people, 5.82% of 15 to 24 year oldsNepal: 1.01 per 1,000 people, 34.8% of 15 to 24 year oldsNaoero: 1.27 per 1,000 people, 50.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsNew Zealand: 3.61 per 1,000 people, 12.8% of 15 to 24 year oldsOman: 1.99 per 1,000 people, 25.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsPakistan: 1.16 per 1,000 people, 28.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsPanama: 1.63 per 1,000 people, 15.1% of 15 to 24 year oldsPeru: 1.69 per 1,000 people, 22.8% of 15 to 24 year oldsPhilippines: 0.792 per 1,000 people, 12.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsPalau: 1.81 per 1,000 people, 11.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsPapua New Guinea: 0.061 per 1,000 people, 27.7% of 15 to 24 year oldsPoland: 4.03 per 1,000 people, 10.1% of 15 to 24 year oldsPortugal: 5.85 per 1,000 people, 7.02% of 15 to 24 year oldsParaguay: 3.89 per 1,000 people, 18.6% of 15 to 24 year oldsWest Bank and Gaza: 2.17 per 1,000 people, 25.8% of 15 to 24 year oldsRomania: 3.63 per 1,000 people, 17% of 15 to 24 year oldsRussian Federation: 5.11 per 1,000 people, 6.68% of 15 to 24 year oldsRwanda: 0.09 per 1,000 people, 15.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsSaudi Arabia: 3.41 per 1,000 people, 16.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsSudan: 0.25 per 1,000 people, 46.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsSenegal: 0.109 per 1,000 people, 35.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsSingapore: 2.83 per 1,000 people, 6.46% of 15 to 24 year oldsSolomon Islands: 0.238 per 1,000 people, 7.04% of 15 to 24 year oldsSierra Leone: 0.134 per 1,000 people, 25.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsEl Salvador: 1.62 per 1,000 people, 20.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsSomalia, Fed. Rep.: 0.048 per 1,000 people, 51% of 15 to 24 year oldsSerbia: 3.1 per 1,000 people, 12.7% of 15 to 24 year oldsSao Tome and Principe: 0.464 per 1,000 people, 43.8% of 15 to 24 year oldsSuriname: 1.35 per 1,000 people, 18.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsSlovak Republic: 3.7 per 1,000 people, 8.75% of 15 to 24 year oldsSlovenia: 3.37 per 1,000 people, 7.13% of 15 to 24 year oldsSweden: 4.41 per 1,000 people, 5.58% of 15 to 24 year oldsEswatini: 0.557 per 1,000 people, 36.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsSeychelles: 6.6 per 1,000 people, 16.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsChad: 0.085 per 1,000 people, 42.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsTogo: 0.08 per 1,000 people, 13% of 15 to 24 year oldsThailand: 0.541 per 1,000 people, 12.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsTajikistan: 1.87 per 1,000 people, 41.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsTimor-Leste: 0.752 per 1,000 people, 29.1% of 15 to 24 year oldsTonga: 1.01 per 1,000 people, 25.6% of 15 to 24 year oldsTrinidad and Tobago: 4.16 per 1,000 people, 15.8% of 15 to 24 year oldsTunisia: 1.31 per 1,000 people, 22.6% of 15 to 24 year oldsTurkiye: 2.24 per 1,000 people, 22.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsTuvalu: 1.35 per 1,000 people, 34.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsTanzania: 0.134 per 1,000 people, 12.8% of 15 to 24 year oldsUganda: 0.191 per 1,000 people, 13.8% of 15 to 24 year oldsUkraine: 3.53 per 1,000 people, 16.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsUruguay: 4.67 per 1,000 people, 14% of 15 to 24 year oldsUnited States: 3.68 per 1,000 people, 11.6% of 15 to 24 year oldsViet Nam: 1.11 per 1,000 people, 10.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsVanuatu: 0.164 per 1,000 people, 29.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsSamoa: 0.561 per 1,000 people, 30.1% of 15 to 24 year oldsSouth Africa: 0.794 per 1,000 people, 34.6% of 15 to 24 year oldsZambia: 0.324 per 1,000 people, 26.7% of 15 to 24 year oldsZimbabwe: 0.136 per 1,000 people, 36% of 15 to 24 year oldsBDIBLRDJIGRCKHMNRUPRTRUSSDNSLBSOMSYC

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted-0.5186.6e-13168
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted-0.5734.8e-16168
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income-0.1650.033168
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income-0.0920.236168

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 168 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.353 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from -0.244 (without BLR) to -0.116 (without GUY). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: BLR (-0.079).

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific27-0.13
Europe & Central Asia46-0.02
Latin America & Caribbean27-0.46
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan17-0.60
Sub-Saharan Africa43-0.10

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third56+0.11
Middle third56-0.19
Richest third56-0.22

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians103-0.23
Muslims42-0.14

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France22-0.08
Never a European colony17-0.13
Spain19-0.12
United Kingdom55-0.12

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = -0.257 after dropping 3 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 34years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

Within countries over time, there is no link that is clearly more than chance (r = +0.007, comparing each country only with itself over the years, and each year only with the same year elsewhere). Whatever the cross-country picture shows, countries whose physicians moved did not tend to see their youth not in work or study move with it.

Across countries (adjusted)-0.165for comparison
Within countries-0.222each country vs itself
…and vs the same year elsewhere+0.007q = 0.931 · 91 countries
Year-on-year changes-0.002q = 0.960
Read with care.
  • Much of the within-country association disappears once shared global year effects are removed, which points to a common worldwide trend rather than a country-level relationship.

1,559 country-years (one country in one year), 91 countries, 1990–2023, about 17 years each on average. Share of the variation that happens within countries over time: 13% for Physicians, 19% for Youth not in work or study. The margins of error allow for each country appearing many times, and for each year’s value being close to the year before.

Year-to-year changes are a cautious test, not a final answer. Looking only at changes from one year to the next removes each country’s own trends. But it also makes measurement mistakes louder, which pulls the results toward zero. A near-zero result here is weak evidence of no link, not proof.

With one measure years behind the other

0.10−0.1-100+10years Youth not in work or study trails Physicians →lag -10: r = -0.009 (n = 819)lag -9: r = -0.014 (n = 892)lag -8: r = 0.000 (n = 970)lag -7: r = -0.008 (n = 1,045)lag -6: r = 0.008 (n = 1,112)lag -5: r = 0.002 (n = 1,187)lag -4: r = -0.009 (n = 1,263)lag -3: r = 0.001 (n = 1,315)lag -2: r = -0.013 (n = 1,392)lag -1: r = -0.018 (n = 1,463)lag +0: r = 0.007 (n = 1,559)lag +1: r = 0.029 (n = 1,605)lag +2: r = 0.009 (n = 1,686)lag +3: r = 0.012 (n = 1,675)lag +4: r = 0.016 (n = 1,665)lag +5: r = 0.013 (n = 1,643)lag +6: r = 0.007 (n = 1,608)lag +7: r = 0.001 (n = 1,591)lag +8: r = -0.016 (n = 1,538)lag +9: r = -0.001 (n = 1,499)lag +10: r = 0.001 (n = 1,459)

Same year (lag 0): +0.007. A peak away from zero does not show which comes first. These series change slowly — this year’s value is close to last year’s. That makes the curve smooth and nearly symmetric, whatever produced the data. Even a sharp peak at one lag (a gap of some years) would not prove that one measure changes the other.

The data


per 1,000 people
% of 15 to 24 year olds		Years
Seychelles SYC6.616.9%2022, 2024
Greece GRC6.5810.4%2022, 2025
Portugal PRT5.857.02%2022, 2025
Georgia GEO5.6414.7%2023, 2024
Austria AUT5.5113.4%2023, 2025
Russian Federation RUS5.116.68%2022, 2025
Argentina ARG5.1115.2%2023, 2025
Norway NOR4.975.82%2023, 2024
Belarus BLR4.7265.7%2023, 2024
Uruguay URY4.6714%2022, 2024
Germany DEU4.537.58%2022, 2024
Malta MLT4.517.84%2022, 2024
Denmark DNK4.56.9%2021, 2024
Switzerland CHE4.486.99%2022, 2025
Lithuania LTU4.4714.9%2022, 2024

World Bank, World Development Indicators
World Bank, World Development Indicators

Sources

Physicians

Physicians (per 1,000 people)

World Health Organization · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

Reported irregularly, so the latest value in the time window used is from a different year for different countries. Hospital beds, already on the site, have no "better" direction, since more beds is not plainly better. More doctors is closer to plainly better, so a direction is set on that basis.

Youth not in work or study

Share of youth not in education, employment or training, total (% of youth population)

International Labour Organization · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

From labour force surveys, so yearly for about a hundred countries and occasional elsewhere.

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2010–2025. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Physicians and Youth not in work or study

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Physicians changes Youth not in work or study, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Physicians or Youth not in work or study