placestats

Alcohol consumption vs. Physicians

Fades after adjusting for income

Across 182 countries, Alcohol consumption and Physicians rise and fall together at r = +0.58 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). Comparing only countries with similar income (GDP per person) shrinks it to +0.36, which could easily be chance (q = 0.085, allowing for the many pairs tested, and allowing for countries in the same region being alike). So the first figure mostly shows richer countries differing from poorer ones, not a link between these two things.

Comparing countries across the middle half of alcohol consumption, 1.76 to 8.05 litres per adult per year, physicians is better by 1.58 per 1,000 people at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 0.693 per 1,000 people.

Link before adjusting (r)+0.581p = 8.3e-18 · 182 countries
After adjusting for national income+0.356p = 9.0e-7 · likely range [+0.22, +0.48]
p, allowing for regions0.013standard error 0.103 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.085across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Alcohol consumption · litres per adult per yearlink with income +0.51 · moderate
Physicians · per 1,000 peoplelink with income +0.85 · proxy

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Alcohol consumption · litres per adult per year →Physicians · per 1,000 people →016.80.0386.6Afghanistan: 0.011 litres per adult per year, 0.317 per 1,000 peopleAngola: 4.13 litres per adult per year, 0.244 per 1,000 peopleAlbania: 4.47 litres per adult per year, 1.88 per 1,000 peopleAndorra: 9.68 litres per adult per year, 5.07 per 1,000 peopleUnited Arab Emirates: 2.08 litres per adult per year, 2.99 per 1,000 peopleArgentina: 8.05 litres per adult per year, 5.11 per 1,000 peopleArmenia: 4.28 litres per adult per year, 3.36 per 1,000 peopleAntigua and Barbuda: 6.66 litres per adult per year, 2.92 per 1,000 peopleAustralia: 10.3 litres per adult per year, 4.09 per 1,000 peopleAustria: 11.5 litres per adult per year, 5.51 per 1,000 peopleAzerbaijan: 2.49 litres per adult per year, 3.19 per 1,000 peopleBurundi: 4.16 litres per adult per year, 0.078 per 1,000 peopleBelgium: 9.43 litres per adult per year, 3.57 per 1,000 peopleBenin: 8.83 litres per adult per year, 0.216 per 1,000 peopleBurkina Faso: 11.3 litres per adult per year, 0.148 per 1,000 peopleBangladesh: 0.092 litres per adult per year, 0.722 per 1,000 peopleBulgaria: 11.6 litres per adult per year, 4.33 per 1,000 peopleBahrain: 1.25 litres per adult per year, 0.741 per 1,000 peopleBahamas, The: 3.65 litres per adult per year, 1.9 per 1,000 peopleBosnia and Herzegovina: 5.87 litres per adult per year, 2.58 per 1,000 peopleBelarus: 11.6 litres per adult per year, 4.72 per 1,000 peopleBelize: 3.67 litres per adult per year, 1.09 per 1,000 peopleBolivia: 3.59 litres per adult per year, 1.28 per 1,000 peopleBrazil: 7.7 litres per adult per year, 2.36 per 1,000 peopleBarbados: 8.22 litres per adult per year, 2.96 per 1,000 peopleBrunei Darussalam: 0.51 litres per adult per year, 1.89 per 1,000 peopleBhutan: 0.18 litres per adult per year, 0.553 per 1,000 peopleBotswana: 7.27 litres per adult per year, 0.379 per 1,000 peopleCentral African Republic: 1.75 litres per adult per year, 0.074 per 1,000 peopleCanada: 9.89 litres per adult per year, 2.82 per 1,000 peopleSwitzerland: 10.1 litres per adult per year, 4.48 per 1,000 peopleChile: 7.56 litres per adult per year, 3.33 per 1,000 peopleChina: 4.58 litres per adult per year, 3.11 per 1,000 peopleCote d'Ivoire: 2.85 litres per adult per year, 0.166 per 1,000 peopleCameroon: 9.6 litres per adult per year, 0.136 per 1,000 peopleCongo, Dem. Rep.: 1.92 litres per adult per year, 0.208 per 1,000 peopleCongo, Rep.: 6.05 litres per adult per year, 0.173 per 1,000 peopleColombia: 4.24 litres per adult per year, 2.54 per 1,000 peopleComoros: 0.23 litres per adult per year, 0.424 per 1,000 peopleCabo Verde: 6.01 litres per adult per year, 0.73 per 1,000 peopleCosta Rica: 3.4 litres per adult per year, 2.69 per 1,000 peopleCyprus: 6.36 litres per adult per year, 3.56 per 1,000 peopleCzechia: 12 litres per adult per year, 4.35 per 1,000 peopleGermany: 11.8 litres per adult per year, 4.53 per 1,000 peopleDjibouti: 0.38 litres per adult per year, 0.211 per 1,000 peopleDominica: 5.02 litres per adult per year, 1.16 per 1,000 peopleDenmark: 9.49 litres per adult per year, 4.5 per 1,000 peopleDominican Republic: 6.5 litres per adult per year, 2.43 per 1,000 peopleAlgeria: 0.54 litres per adult per year, 1.66 per 1,000 peopleEcuador: 2.54 litres per adult per year, 2.31 per 1,000 peopleEgypt, Arab Rep.: 0.13 litres per adult per year, 0.671 per 1,000 peopleSpain: 9.16 litres per adult per year, 4.29 per 1,000 peopleEstonia: 10.7 litres per adult per year, 3.47 per 1,000 peopleEthiopia: 3.06 litres per adult per year, 0.143 per 1,000 peopleFinland: 9.08 litres per adult per year, 3.61 per 1,000 peopleFiji: 3.58 litres per adult per year, 0.813 per 1,000 peopleFrance: 10.3 litres per adult per year, 3.28 per 1,000 peopleMicronesia, Fed. Sts.: 2.02 litres per adult per year, 0.974 per 1,000 peopleGabon: 8.14 litres per adult per year, 0.521 per 1,000 peopleUnited Kingdom: 10.7 litres per adult per year, 3.3 per 1,000 peopleGeorgia: 14.4 litres per adult per year, 5.64 per 1,000 peopleGhana: 4.26 litres per adult per year, 0.266 per 1,000 peopleGuinea: 0.52 litres per adult per year, 0.21 per 1,000 peopleGambia, The: 0.61 litres per adult per year, 0.09 per 1,000 peopleGuinea-Bissau: 3.73 litres per adult per year, 0.252 per 1,000 peopleEquatorial Guinea: 6.56 litres per adult per year, 0.153 per 1,000 peopleGreece: 5.81 litres per adult per year, 6.58 per 1,000 peopleGrenada: 7.33 litres per adult per year, 1.38 per 1,000 peopleGuatemala: 1.54 litres per adult per year, 1.28 per 1,000 peopleGuyana: 5.04 litres per adult per year, 1.39 per 1,000 peopleHonduras: 3.08 litres per adult per year, 0.489 per 1,000 peopleCroatia: 7.65 litres per adult per year, 3.91 per 1,000 peopleHaiti: 3.11 litres per adult per year, 0.292 per 1,000 peopleHungary: 9.93 litres per adult per year, 3.46 per 1,000 peopleIndonesia: 0.074 litres per adult per year, 0.524 per 1,000 peopleIndia: 4.1 litres per adult per year, 0.723 per 1,000 peopleIreland: 10.8 litres per adult per year, 3.88 per 1,000 peopleIran, Islamic Rep.: 0.51 litres per adult per year, 1.81 per 1,000 peopleIraq: 0.24 litres per adult per year, 1.02 per 1,000 peopleIceland: 7.94 litres per adult per year, 4.37 per 1,000 peopleIsrael: 2.84 litres per adult per year, 3.8 per 1,000 peopleItaly: 6.97 litres per adult per year, 4.19 per 1,000 peopleJamaica: 3.1 litres per adult per year, 0.46 per 1,000 peopleJordan: 0.23 litres per adult per year, 2.85 per 1,000 peopleJapan: 6.38 litres per adult per year, 2.65 per 1,000 peopleKazakhstan: 4.52 litres per adult per year, 3.75 per 1,000 peopleKenya: 2.47 litres per adult per year, 0.289 per 1,000 peopleKyrgyz Republic: 3.63 litres per adult per year, 1.57 per 1,000 peopleCambodia: 6.67 litres per adult per year, 0.211 per 1,000 peopleKiribati: 0.72 litres per adult per year, 0.193 per 1,000 peopleSt. Kitts and Nevis: 4.69 litres per adult per year, 3.08 per 1,000 peopleKorea, Rep.: 7.79 litres per adult per year, 2.61 per 1,000 peopleKuwait: 0 litres per adult per year, 2.27 per 1,000 peopleLao PDR: 10.8 litres per adult per year, 0.331 per 1,000 peopleLebanon: 1.26 litres per adult per year, 2.68 per 1,000 peopleLiberia: 2.86 litres per adult per year, 0.178 per 1,000 peopleLibya: 0.012 litres per adult per year, 2.04 per 1,000 peopleSt. Lucia: 9.28 litres per adult per year, 4.23 per 1,000 peopleSri Lanka: 2.91 litres per adult per year, 1.14 per 1,000 peopleLesotho: 4.3 litres per adult per year, 0.235 per 1,000 peopleLithuania: 12.1 litres per adult per year, 4.47 per 1,000 peopleLuxembourg: 10.8 litres per adult per year, 2.98 per 1,000 peopleLatvia: 12.9 litres per adult per year, 3.4 per 1,000 peopleMorocco: 0.5 litres per adult per year, 0.74 per 1,000 peopleMoldova: 11.1 litres per adult per year, 4.02 per 1,000 peopleMadagascar: 0.99 litres per adult per year, 0.172 per 1,000 peopleMaldives: 1.49 litres per adult per year, 2.23 per 1,000 peopleMexico: 4.79 litres per adult per year, 2.59 per 1,000 peopleNorth Macedonia: 4.36 litres per adult per year, 2.94 per 1,000 peopleMali: 5.32 litres per adult per year, 0.188 per 1,000 peopleMalta: 7.11 litres per adult per year, 4.51 per 1,000 peopleMyanmar: 1.93 litres per adult per year, 0.757 per 1,000 peopleMontenegro: 10.3 litres per adult per year, 2.78 per 1,000 peopleMongolia: 7.68 litres per adult per year, 4.13 per 1,000 peopleMozambique: 1.89 litres per adult per year, 0.175 per 1,000 peopleMauritania: 0 litres per adult per year, 0.261 per 1,000 peopleMauritius: 6.86 litres per adult per year, 1.44 per 1,000 peopleMalawi: 3.61 litres per adult per year, 0.054 per 1,000 peopleMalaysia: 0.74 litres per adult per year, 2.34 per 1,000 peopleNamibia: 5.05 litres per adult per year, 0.553 per 1,000 peopleNiger: 0.13 litres per adult per year, 0.038 per 1,000 peopleNigeria: 3.78 litres per adult per year, 0.38 per 1,000 peopleNicaragua: 3.67 litres per adult per year, 0.682 per 1,000 peopleNetherlands: 8.71 litres per adult per year, 3.88 per 1,000 peopleNorway: 7.38 litres per adult per year, 4.97 per 1,000 peopleNepal: 1.06 litres per adult per year, 1.01 per 1,000 peopleNaoero: 2.79 litres per adult per year, 1.27 per 1,000 peopleNew Zealand: 10 litres per adult per year, 3.61 per 1,000 peopleOman: 0.51 litres per adult per year, 1.99 per 1,000 peoplePakistan: 0.084 litres per adult per year, 1.16 per 1,000 peoplePanama: 4.66 litres per adult per year, 1.63 per 1,000 peoplePeru: 6.45 litres per adult per year, 1.69 per 1,000 peoplePhilippines: 5.66 litres per adult per year, 0.792 per 1,000 peoplePapua New Guinea: 1.13 litres per adult per year, 0.061 per 1,000 peoplePoland: 11.7 litres per adult per year, 4.03 per 1,000 peoplePortugal: 8.88 litres per adult per year, 5.85 per 1,000 peopleParaguay: 5.62 litres per adult per year, 3.89 per 1,000 peopleQatar: 1.05 litres per adult per year, 3.02 per 1,000 peopleRomania: 16.8 litres per adult per year, 3.63 per 1,000 peopleRussian Federation: 10.5 litres per adult per year, 5.11 per 1,000 peopleRwanda: 2.87 litres per adult per year, 0.09 per 1,000 peopleSaudi Arabia: 0 litres per adult per year, 3.41 per 1,000 peopleSudan: 0.01 litres per adult per year, 0.25 per 1,000 peopleSenegal: 0.38 litres per adult per year, 0.109 per 1,000 peopleSingapore: 1.81 litres per adult per year, 2.83 per 1,000 peopleSolomon Islands: 1.45 litres per adult per year, 0.238 per 1,000 peopleSierra Leone: 0.29 litres per adult per year, 0.134 per 1,000 peopleEl Salvador: 3.15 litres per adult per year, 1.62 per 1,000 peopleSomalia, Fed. Rep.: 0 litres per adult per year, 0.048 per 1,000 peopleSerbia: 7.89 litres per adult per year, 3.1 per 1,000 peopleSao Tome and Principe: 4.79 litres per adult per year, 0.464 per 1,000 peopleSuriname: 5.93 litres per adult per year, 1.35 per 1,000 peopleSlovak Republic: 10.7 litres per adult per year, 3.7 per 1,000 peopleSlovenia: 10.4 litres per adult per year, 3.37 per 1,000 peopleSweden: 9.57 litres per adult per year, 4.41 per 1,000 peopleEswatini: 6.79 litres per adult per year, 0.557 per 1,000 peopleSeychelles: 10.2 litres per adult per year, 6.6 per 1,000 peopleSyrian Arab Republic: 0.092 litres per adult per year, 1.52 per 1,000 peopleChad: 2.91 litres per adult per year, 0.085 per 1,000 peopleTogo: 1.44 litres per adult per year, 0.08 per 1,000 peopleThailand: 7.99 litres per adult per year, 0.541 per 1,000 peopleTajikistan: 0.74 litres per adult per year, 1.87 per 1,000 peopleTurkmenistan: 2.62 litres per adult per year, 1.93 per 1,000 peopleTimor-Leste: 0.17 litres per adult per year, 0.752 per 1,000 peopleTonga: 0.36 litres per adult per year, 1.01 per 1,000 peopleTrinidad and Tobago: 6.03 litres per adult per year, 4.16 per 1,000 peopleTunisia: 1.71 litres per adult per year, 1.31 per 1,000 peopleTurkiye: 1.69 litres per adult per year, 2.24 per 1,000 peopleTuvalu: 1.26 litres per adult per year, 1.35 per 1,000 peopleTanzania: 10.9 litres per adult per year, 0.134 per 1,000 peopleUganda: 11.3 litres per adult per year, 0.191 per 1,000 peopleUkraine: 9.24 litres per adult per year, 3.53 per 1,000 peopleUruguay: 5.61 litres per adult per year, 4.67 per 1,000 peopleUnited States: 9.9 litres per adult per year, 3.68 per 1,000 peopleUzbekistan: 2.1 litres per adult per year, 2.81 per 1,000 peopleSt. Vincent and the Grenadines: 5.62 litres per adult per year, 0.938 per 1,000 peopleViet Nam: 8.04 litres per adult per year, 1.11 per 1,000 peopleVanuatu: 2.04 litres per adult per year, 0.164 per 1,000 peopleSamoa: 2.35 litres per adult per year, 0.561 per 1,000 peopleSouth Africa: 7.13 litres per adult per year, 0.794 per 1,000 peopleZambia: 3.62 litres per adult per year, 0.324 per 1,000 peopleZimbabwe: 2.67 litres per adult per year, 0.136 per 1,000 peopleBFAGEOGRCJORNERROUSAUSDNSOMSYCTZAUGA

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted+0.5818.3e-18182
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted+0.5301.4e-14182
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income+0.3569.0e-7182
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income+0.2220.003182

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 182 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.225 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from +0.328 (without GEO) to +0.372 (without GRC). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: GEO (-0.027).

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific27+0.23
Europe & Central Asia49+0.34
Latin America & Caribbean31+0.46
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan21+0.49
Sub-Saharan Africa46+0.13

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third61-0.32
Middle third60+0.22
Richest third61+0.52

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians108+0.31
Muslims48+0.11

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France25-0.38
Never a European colony21+0.45
Spain20+0.19
United Kingdom63+0.32

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = +0.356 after dropping 0 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 21years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

Within countries over time, there is no link that is clearly more than chance (r = +0.003, comparing each country only with itself over the years, and each year only with the same year elsewhere). Whatever the cross-country picture shows, countries whose alcohol consumption moved did not tend to see their physicians move with it.

Across countries (adjusted)+0.356for comparison
Within countries-0.053each country vs itself
…and vs the same year elsewhere+0.003q = 0.984 · 167 countries
Year-on-year changes+0.001q = 0.979
Read with care.
  • Almost all of this indicator's variation is between countries, not within them, so the within-country estimate rests on a small part of the data.

2,422 country-years (one country in one year), 167 countries, 2000–2020, about 15 years each on average. Share of the variation that happens within countries over time: 3% for Alcohol consumption, 7% for Physicians. The margins of error allow for each country appearing many times, and for each year’s value being close to the year before.

Year-to-year changes are a cautious test, not a final answer. Looking only at changes from one year to the next removes each country’s own trends. But it also makes measurement mistakes louder, which pulls the results toward zero. A near-zero result here is weak evidence of no link, not proof.

With one measure years behind the other

0.20−0.2-100+10years Physicians trails Alcohol consumption →lag -10: r = -0.144 (n = 2,182)lag -9: r = -0.151 (n = 2,151)lag -8: r = -0.145 (n = 2,177)lag -7: r = -0.149 (n = 2,200)lag -6: r = -0.146 (n = 2,189)lag -5: r = -0.135 (n = 2,237)lag -4: r = -0.115 (n = 2,222)lag -3: r = -0.084 (n = 2,254)lag -2: r = -0.049 (n = 2,321)lag -1: r = -0.015 (n = 2,363)lag +0: r = 0.003 (n = 2,422)lag +1: r = 0.026 (n = 2,440)lag +2: r = 0.039 (n = 2,478)lag +3: r = 0.045 (n = 2,431)lag +4: r = 0.048 (n = 2,331)lag +5: r = 0.059 (n = 2,188)lag +6: r = 0.065 (n = 2,075)lag +7: r = 0.065 (n = 1,974)lag +8: r = 0.067 (n = 1,863)lag +9: r = 0.083 (n = 1,713)lag +10: r = 0.087 (n = 1,586)

Same year (lag 0): +0.003. A peak away from zero does not show which comes first. These series change slowly — this year’s value is close to last year’s. That makes the curve smooth and nearly symmetric, whatever produced the data. Even a sharp peak at one lag (a gap of some years) would not prove that one measure changes the other.

The largest value on this curve (-0.15 at lag -9) is higher than the same-year one by 0.15. That gap is not a finding. It is the largest of 21 closely related estimates, and picking the biggest of many tests always makes it look bigger. That is exactly why nothing on this site is ranked or chosen by lag.

The data


litres per adult per year
per 1,000 people		Years
Romania ROU16.83.632020, 2022
Georgia GEO14.45.642020, 2023
Latvia LVA12.93.42020, 2022
Lithuania LTU12.14.472020, 2022
Czechia CZE124.352020, 2022
Germany DEU11.84.532020, 2022
Poland POL11.74.032020, 2023
Belarus BLR11.64.722020, 2023
Bulgaria BGR11.64.332020, 2022
Austria AUT11.55.512020, 2023
Uganda UGA11.30.1912020, 2022
Burkina Faso BFA11.30.1482020, 2022
Moldova MDA11.14.022020, 2023
Tanzania TZA10.90.1342020, 2022
Luxembourg LUX10.82.982020, 2017

World Bank, World Development Indicators
World Bank, World Development Indicators

Sources

Alcohol consumption

Total alcohol consumption per capita (litres of pure alcohol, age 15+)

World Health Organization Global Health Observatory · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

Recorded drinking plus an estimate of unrecorded drinking, per person aged fifteen and over. Ends in 2020. No "better" direction is set, and the reason is the strongest fact about this measure on the site. Of everything here, it is what most separates countries by their largest religion. Alcohol is forbidden in Islam, so a low figure in a Muslim-majority country is religious practice showing up in a health statistic. Calling that end "best" would make this site score religious practice, which it refuses to do everywhere else. Every measure of attendance, prayer, marriage and belief here has no "better" direction for exactly that reason. This is the same fact arriving through a different column. The World Health Organization is right that alcohol carries a real burden of disease, and the site does not dispute it. It declines to turn that into a score for a country, when the thing being scored would largely be how many of its people are Muslim.

Physicians

Physicians (per 1,000 people)

World Health Organization · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

Reported irregularly, so the latest value in the time window used is from a different year for different countries. Hospital beds, already on the site, have no "better" direction, since more beds is not plainly better. More doctors is closer to plainly better, so a direction is set on that basis.

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2012–2023. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Alcohol consumption and Physicians

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Alcohol consumption changes Physicians, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Alcohol consumption or Physicians