placestats

Military spending vs. Pupil-teacher ratio

Holds up after adjusting for income

Across 144 countries, Military spending and Pupil-teacher ratio rise and fall together at r = -0.15 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). It holds up almost unchanged when only countries with similar income (GDP per person) are compared (r = -0.13, q = 0.038, allowing for the many pairs tested).

Comparing countries across the middle half of military spending, 0.982% to 2.57% of GDP, pupil-teacher ratio is better by 1.02 pupils per teacher at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 0.493 pupils per teacher.

Link before adjusting (r)-0.152p = 0.070 · 144 countries
After adjusting for national income-0.128p = 0.127 · likely range [-0.29, +0.04]
p, allowing for regions0.003standard error 0.027 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.038across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Military spending · % of GDPlink with income +0.19 · independent
Pupil-teacher ratio · pupils per teacherlink with income -0.83 · proxy

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Military spending · % of GDP →Pupil-teacher ratio · pupils per teacher →0.15%34.5%8.383.4Afghanistan: 1.83% of GDP, 48.8 pupils per teacherAngola: 1% of GDP, 50 pupils per teacherAlbania: 2.04% of GDP, 17.6 pupils per teacherUnited Arab Emirates: 5.64% of GDP, 24.5 pupils per teacherArmenia: 5.48% of GDP, 15.4 pupils per teacherAustria: 1% of GDP, 10 pupils per teacherAzerbaijan: 4.99% of GDP, 15.4 pupils per teacherBurundi: 3.8% of GDP, 42.5 pupils per teacherBelgium: 1.28% of GDP, 11.3 pupils per teacherBenin: 0.721% of GDP, 39.2 pupils per teacherBurkina Faso: 4.68% of GDP, 39.7 pupils per teacherBangladesh: 0.941% of GDP, 30.1 pupils per teacherBulgaria: 2.15% of GDP, 15.2 pupils per teacherBahrain: 2.89% of GDP, 11.9 pupils per teacherBosnia and Herzegovina: 0.747% of GDP, 16.9 pupils per teacherBelarus: 2.07% of GDP, 19.2 pupils per teacherBelize: 0.899% of GDP, 19.8 pupils per teacherBolivia: 1.37% of GDP, 17.8 pupils per teacherBrazil: 0.973% of GDP, 20.2 pupils per teacherBrunei Darussalam: 3.58% of GDP, 9.9 pupils per teacherBotswana: 2.83% of GDP, 23.7 pupils per teacherCentral African Republic: 2.52% of GDP, 83.4 pupils per teacherSwitzerland: 0.718% of GDP, 9.93 pupils per teacherChile: 1.58% of GDP, 17.8 pupils per teacherChina: 1.71% of GDP, 16.4 pupils per teacherCote d'Ivoire: 0.762% of GDP, 41.8 pupils per teacherCameroon: 1.01% of GDP, 44.8 pupils per teacherCongo, Dem. Rep.: 1.23% of GDP, 33.2 pupils per teacherCongo, Rep.: 1.19% of GDP, 44.4 pupils per teacherColombia: 3.36% of GDP, 23.3 pupils per teacherCabo Verde: 0.624% of GDP, 21.1 pupils per teacherCyprus: 1.65% of GDP, 12 pupils per teacherCzechia: 1.92% of GDP, 18.9 pupils per teacherGermany: 1.89% of GDP, 12.3 pupils per teacherDenmark: 2.42% of GDP, 10.7 pupils per teacherDominican Republic: 0.782% of GDP, 18.9 pupils per teacherAlgeria: 7.97% of GDP, 24.3 pupils per teacherEcuador: 2.22% of GDP, 24.3 pupils per teacherEgypt, Arab Rep.: 0.665% of GDP, 23.7 pupils per teacherSpain: 1.43% of GDP, 13.1 pupils per teacherEstonia: 3.37% of GDP, 11.3 pupils per teacherEthiopia: 0.651% of GDP, 55.1 pupils per teacherFinland: 2.3% of GDP, 13.7 pupils per teacherFiji: 1.31% of GDP, 28 pupils per teacherFrance: 2.05% of GDP, 18.2 pupils per teacherGabon: 1.54% of GDP, 24.5 pupils per teacherUnited Kingdom: 2.28% of GDP, 15.1 pupils per teacherGeorgia: 1.86% of GDP, 8.98 pupils per teacherGhana: 0.384% of GDP, 27 pupils per teacherGuinea: 2.05% of GDP, 47.1 pupils per teacherGambia, The: 0.574% of GDP, 36.1 pupils per teacherGuinea-Bissau: 1.23% of GDP, 51.9 pupils per teacherEquatorial Guinea: 0.982% of GDP, 23.2 pupils per teacherGreece: 3.13% of GDP, 9.38 pupils per teacherGuatemala: 0.368% of GDP, 20.3 pupils per teacherGuyana: 0.868% of GDP, 23.2 pupils per teacherHonduras: 1.58% of GDP, 25.6 pupils per teacherCroatia: 1.79% of GDP, 13.5 pupils per teacherHungary: 2.16% of GDP, 10.8 pupils per teacherIndonesia: 0.779% of GDP, 17 pupils per teacherIndia: 2.27% of GDP, 32.7 pupils per teacherIreland: 0.239% of GDP, 16.1 pupils per teacherIran, Islamic Rep.: 2.01% of GDP, 28.5 pupils per teacherIsrael: 8.78% of GDP, 12.1 pupils per teacherItaly: 1.61% of GDP, 11.5 pupils per teacherJamaica: 1.27% of GDP, 24.8 pupils per teacherJordan: 4.8% of GDP, 18.5 pupils per teacherJapan: 1.37% of GDP, 15.7 pupils per teacherKazakhstan: 0.428% of GDP, 17.2 pupils per teacherKenya: 1% of GDP, 30.7 pupils per teacherKyrgyz Republic: 2.97% of GDP, 25 pupils per teacherCambodia: 1.52% of GDP, 41.7 pupils per teacherKorea, Rep.: 2.56% of GDP, 16.3 pupils per teacherKuwait: 4.84% of GDP, 8.88 pupils per teacherLao PDR: 0.19% of GDP, 22.3 pupils per teacherLebanon: 2.59% of GDP, 12.5 pupils per teacherLiberia: 0.711% of GDP, 22.3 pupils per teacherSri Lanka: 1.43% of GDP, 21.7 pupils per teacherLesotho: 1.57% of GDP, 32.9 pupils per teacherLithuania: 3.12% of GDP, 13.5 pupils per teacherLuxembourg: 0.963% of GDP, 8.3 pupils per teacherLatvia: 3.26% of GDP, 11.5 pupils per teacherMorocco: 3.52% of GDP, 26.8 pupils per teacherMoldova: 0.598% of GDP, 17.9 pupils per teacherMadagascar: 0.709% of GDP, 39.8 pupils per teacherMexico: 0.893% of GDP, 26.6 pupils per teacherNorth Macedonia: 2.1% of GDP, 14.9 pupils per teacherMali: 4.2% of GDP, 37.8 pupils per teacherMalta: 0.451% of GDP, 12.9 pupils per teacherMyanmar: 6.79% of GDP, 24.4 pupils per teacherMongolia: 0.742% of GDP, 30.4 pupils per teacherMozambique: 1.99% of GDP, 55.3 pupils per teacherMauritania: 2.16% of GDP, 34.3 pupils per teacherMauritius: 0.15% of GDP, 16.2 pupils per teacherMalawi: 1.02% of GDP, 58.7 pupils per teacherMalaysia: 0.988% of GDP, 11.7 pupils per teacherNamibia: 2.73% of GDP, 25.1 pupils per teacherNiger: 2.24% of GDP, 36.3 pupils per teacherNigeria: 0.555% of GDP, 37.6 pupils per teacherNicaragua: 0.545% of GDP, 30.2 pupils per teacherNetherlands: 1.92% of GDP, 11.8 pupils per teacherNorway: 2.09% of GDP, 8.59 pupils per teacherNepal: 0.979% of GDP, 19.7 pupils per teacherNew Zealand: 1.19% of GDP, 14.9 pupils per teacherOman: 5.59% of GDP, 9.67 pupils per teacherPakistan: 2.67% of GDP, 44.1 pupils per teacherPeru: 0.909% of GDP, 17.4 pupils per teacherPhilippines: 1.32% of GDP, 29.1 pupils per teacherPapua New Guinea: 0.308% of GDP, 35.5 pupils per teacherPoland: 4.15% of GDP, 10.2 pupils per teacherPortugal: 1.53% of GDP, 12.4 pupils per teacherParaguay: 0.933% of GDP, 24.2 pupils per teacherQatar: 6.5% of GDP, 12.2 pupils per teacherRomania: 2.3% of GDP, 19.3 pupils per teacherRussian Federation: 7.05% of GDP, 21.3 pupils per teacherRwanda: 1.25% of GDP, 59.5 pupils per teacherSaudi Arabia: 7.3% of GDP, 13.8 pupils per teacherSenegal: 1.57% of GDP, 36.3 pupils per teacherSingapore: 2.84% of GDP, 14.7 pupils per teacherSierra Leone: 0.463% of GDP, 27.5 pupils per teacherEl Salvador: 1.19% of GDP, 26.9 pupils per teacherSerbia: 2.6% of GDP, 14.3 pupils per teacherSlovak Republic: 2.01% of GDP, 15.5 pupils per teacherSlovenia: 1.31% of GDP, 13.8 pupils per teacherSweden: 2% of GDP, 12.2 pupils per teacherEswatini: 1.44% of GDP, 26.6 pupils per teacherSeychelles: 1.18% of GDP, 14.5 pupils per teacherChad: 2.98% of GDP, 56.9 pupils per teacherTogo: 2% of GDP, 40.1 pupils per teacherThailand: 1.08% of GDP, 16.6 pupils per teacherTajikistan: 1.85% of GDP, 22.3 pupils per teacherTimor-Leste: 2.66% of GDP, 26.9 pupils per teacherTunisia: 2.51% of GDP, 16.9 pupils per teacherTurkiye: 1.92% of GDP, 17 pupils per teacherTanzania: 1.15% of GDP, 50.6 pupils per teacherUganda: 1.88% of GDP, 42.7 pupils per teacherUkraine: 34.5% of GDP, 13 pupils per teacherUruguay: 2.31% of GDP, 11 pupils per teacherUnited States: 3.42% of GDP, 14.2 pupils per teacherUzbekistan: 2.87% of GDP, 21.5 pupils per teacherViet Nam: 1.81% of GDP, 20.3 pupils per teacherSouth Africa: 0.7% of GDP, 30.3 pupils per teacherZambia: 1.33% of GDP, 42.1 pupils per teacherZimbabwe: 0.351% of GDP, 36.4 pupils per teacherAUTCAFCHEISRLUXMWIRWASAUTCDUKR

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted-0.1520.070144
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted-0.2550.002144
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income-0.1280.127144
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income-0.1630.052144

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 144 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.023 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from -0.149 (without CAF) to -0.045 (without UKR). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: UKR (+0.083).

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific18-0.22
Europe & Central Asia45-0.23
Latin America & Caribbean17-0.17
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan17-0.03
Sub-Saharan Africa42+0.03

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third48-0.08
Middle third48-0.28
Richest third48+0.03

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians86-0.17
Muslims39+0.05

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France21-0.03
Never a European colony20-0.16
Spain16-0.00
United Kingdom40-0.11

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = -0.130 after dropping 17 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 30years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

Within countries over time, there is no link that is clearly more than chance (r = +0.021, comparing each country only with itself over the years, and each year only with the same year elsewhere). Whatever the cross-country picture shows, countries whose military spending moved did not tend to see their pupil-teacher ratio move with it.

Across countries (adjusted)-0.128for comparison
Within countries+0.075each country vs itself
…and vs the same year elsewhere+0.021q = 0.448 · 148 countries
Year-on-year changes+0.005q = 0.696
Read with care.
  • Almost all of the second indicator's variation is between countries, so the within-country estimate rests on a small part of the data.

2,832 country-years (one country in one year), 148 countries, 1990–2019, about 19 years each on average. Share of the variation that happens within countries over time: 57% for Military spending, 9% for Pupil-teacher ratio. The margins of error allow for each country appearing many times, and for each year’s value being close to the year before.

Year-to-year changes are a cautious test, not a final answer. Looking only at changes from one year to the next removes each country’s own trends. But it also makes measurement mistakes louder, which pulls the results toward zero. A near-zero result here is weak evidence of no link, not proof.

With one measure years behind the other

0.10−0.1-100+10years Pupil-teacher ratio trails Military spending →lag -10: r = -0.018 (n = 2,510)lag -9: r = -0.049 (n = 2,612)lag -8: r = -0.069 (n = 2,714)lag -7: r = -0.073 (n = 2,829)lag -6: r = -0.066 (n = 2,886)lag -5: r = -0.060 (n = 2,887)lag -4: r = -0.050 (n = 2,883)lag -3: r = -0.034 (n = 2,874)lag -2: r = -0.035 (n = 2,867)lag -1: r = 0.004 (n = 2,858)lag +0: r = 0.021 (n = 2,832)lag +1: r = 0.013 (n = 2,744)lag +2: r = 0.005 (n = 2,657)lag +3: r = 0.006 (n = 2,559)lag +4: r = 0.020 (n = 2,463)lag +5: r = 0.017 (n = 2,360)lag +6: r = 0.016 (n = 2,260)lag +7: r = 0.011 (n = 2,165)lag +8: r = -0.003 (n = 2,075)lag +9: r = 0.002 (n = 1,978)lag +10: r = -0.009 (n = 1,851)

Same year (lag 0): +0.021. A peak away from zero does not show which comes first. These series change slowly — this year’s value is close to last year’s. That makes the curve smooth and nearly symmetric, whatever produced the data. Even a sharp peak at one lag (a gap of some years) would not prove that one measure changes the other.

The largest value on this curve (-0.07 at lag -7) is higher than the same-year one by 0.05. That gap is not a finding. It is the largest of 21 closely related estimates, and picking the biggest of many tests always makes it look bigger. That is exactly why nothing on this site is ranked or chosen by lag.

The data


% of GDP
pupils per teacher		Years
Ukraine UKR34.5%132024, 2018
Israel ISR8.78%12.12024, 2016
Algeria DZA7.97%24.32024, 2018
Saudi Arabia SAU7.3%13.82024, 2018
Russian Federation RUS7.05%21.32024, 2017
Myanmar MMR6.79%24.42024, 2018
Qatar QAT6.5%12.22022, 2018
United Arab Emirates ARE5.64%24.52014, 2016
Oman OMN5.59%9.672024, 2018
Armenia ARM5.48%15.42024, 2018
Azerbaijan AZE4.99%15.42024, 2018
Kuwait KWT4.84%8.882024, 2018
Jordan JOR4.8%18.52024, 2018
Burkina Faso BFA4.68%39.72024, 2018
Mali MLI4.2%37.82024, 2018

World Bank, World Development Indicators
World Bank, World Development Indicators

Sources

Military spending

Military expenditure (% of GDP)

Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

Pupil-teacher ratio

Pupil-teacher ratio, primary

UNESCO Institute for Statistics · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

The World Bank's copy stops at 2019.

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2010–2024. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Military spending and Pupil-teacher ratio

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Military spending changes Pupil-teacher ratio, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Military spending or Pupil-teacher ratio