placestats

Birth registration vs. Pupil-teacher ratio

Holds up after adjusting for income

Across 155 countries, Birth registration and Pupil-teacher ratio rise and fall together at r = -0.72 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). Comparing only countries with similar income (GDP per person) shrinks it to -0.43 (q = 0.0097, allowing for the many pairs tested). Much of the first figure is that both measures rise with national income, but a moderate negative link remains.

Comparing countries across the middle half of pupil-teacher ratio, 13.9 to 30.4 pupils per teacher, birth registration is worse by 20% of children under 5 at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 14.4% of children under 5.

Link before adjusting (r)-0.724p = 1.8e-26 · 155 countries
After adjusting for national income-0.428p = 3.1e-8 · likely range [-0.55, -0.29]
p, allowing for regions0.001standard error 0.069 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.010across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Birth registration · % of children under 5link with income +0.87 · proxy
Pupil-teacher ratio · pupils per teacherlink with income -0.83 · proxy

Both of these rise and fall closely with national income, so a strong link between them before adjusting was close to certain. Read the adjusted figure, not the first one.

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Birth registration · % of children under 5 →Pupil-teacher ratio · pupils per teacher →2.7%100%6.9383.4Afghanistan: 42.3% of children under 5, 48.8 pupils per teacherAngola: 25% of children under 5, 50 pupils per teacherAlbania: 98.4% of children under 5, 17.6 pupils per teacherAndorra: 100% of children under 5, 10.5 pupils per teacherUnited Arab Emirates: 100% of children under 5, 24.5 pupils per teacherArmenia: 99.3% of children under 5, 15.4 pupils per teacherAustria: 100% of children under 5, 10 pupils per teacherBurundi: 83.5% of children under 5, 42.5 pupils per teacherBelgium: 100% of children under 5, 11.3 pupils per teacherBenin: 85.6% of children under 5, 39.2 pupils per teacherBurkina Faso: 76.9% of children under 5, 39.7 pupils per teacherBangladesh: 56% of children under 5, 30.1 pupils per teacherBulgaria: 100% of children under 5, 15.2 pupils per teacherBahrain: 100% of children under 5, 11.9 pupils per teacherBelarus: 100% of children under 5, 19.2 pupils per teacherBelize: 95.7% of children under 5, 19.8 pupils per teacherBolivia: 91.9% of children under 5, 17.8 pupils per teacherBrazil: 96.4% of children under 5, 20.2 pupils per teacherBarbados: 98.7% of children under 5, 14 pupils per teacherBrunei Darussalam: 99.9% of children under 5, 9.9 pupils per teacherBhutan: 99.9% of children under 5, 34.7 pupils per teacherBotswana: 87.5% of children under 5, 23.7 pupils per teacherCentral African Republic: 44.8% of children under 5, 83.4 pupils per teacherSwitzerland: 100% of children under 5, 9.93 pupils per teacherChile: 99.4% of children under 5, 17.8 pupils per teacherCote d'Ivoire: 71.7% of children under 5, 41.8 pupils per teacherCameroon: 61.9% of children under 5, 44.8 pupils per teacherCongo, Dem. Rep.: 40.1% of children under 5, 33.2 pupils per teacherCongo, Rep.: 95.9% of children under 5, 44.4 pupils per teacherColombia: 96.8% of children under 5, 23.3 pupils per teacherComoros: 87.3% of children under 5, 28.1 pupils per teacherCabo Verde: 91.4% of children under 5, 21.1 pupils per teacherCosta Rica: 99.6% of children under 5, 12.2 pupils per teacherCyprus: 100% of children under 5, 12 pupils per teacherCzechia: 100% of children under 5, 18.9 pupils per teacherGermany: 100% of children under 5, 12.3 pupils per teacherDenmark: 100% of children under 5, 10.7 pupils per teacherDominican Republic: 92.2% of children under 5, 18.9 pupils per teacherAlgeria: 99.6% of children under 5, 24.3 pupils per teacherEcuador: 87.2% of children under 5, 24.3 pupils per teacherEgypt, Arab Rep.: 99.4% of children under 5, 23.7 pupils per teacherSpain: 100% of children under 5, 13.1 pupils per teacherEstonia: 100% of children under 5, 11.3 pupils per teacherEthiopia: 2.7% of children under 5, 55.1 pupils per teacherFinland: 100% of children under 5, 13.7 pupils per teacherFiji: 86.6% of children under 5, 28 pupils per teacherFrance: 100% of children under 5, 18.2 pupils per teacherGabon: 89.6% of children under 5, 24.5 pupils per teacherUnited Kingdom: 100% of children under 5, 15.1 pupils per teacherGeorgia: 98.5% of children under 5, 8.98 pupils per teacherGhana: 70.6% of children under 5, 27 pupils per teacherGuinea: 62% of children under 5, 47.1 pupils per teacherGambia, The: 59% of children under 5, 36.1 pupils per teacherGuinea-Bissau: 46% of children under 5, 51.9 pupils per teacherEquatorial Guinea: 53.5% of children under 5, 23.2 pupils per teacherGreece: 100% of children under 5, 9.38 pupils per teacherGuatemala: 96.4% of children under 5, 20.3 pupils per teacherGuyana: 98.1% of children under 5, 23.2 pupils per teacherHonduras: 97% of children under 5, 25.6 pupils per teacherCroatia: 100% of children under 5, 13.5 pupils per teacherHungary: 100% of children under 5, 10.8 pupils per teacherIndonesia: 77% of children under 5, 17 pupils per teacherIndia: 89.1% of children under 5, 32.7 pupils per teacherIreland: 100% of children under 5, 16.1 pupils per teacherIran, Islamic Rep.: 98.6% of children under 5, 28.5 pupils per teacherIceland: 100% of children under 5, 10.1 pupils per teacherIsrael: 100% of children under 5, 12.1 pupils per teacherItaly: 100% of children under 5, 11.5 pupils per teacherJamaica: 98% of children under 5, 24.8 pupils per teacherJordan: 98% of children under 5, 18.5 pupils per teacherJapan: 100% of children under 5, 15.7 pupils per teacherKazakhstan: 99.7% of children under 5, 17.2 pupils per teacherKenya: 66.9% of children under 5, 30.7 pupils per teacherKyrgyz Republic: 98.9% of children under 5, 25 pupils per teacherCambodia: 73.3% of children under 5, 41.7 pupils per teacherKiribati: 91.6% of children under 5, 25.5 pupils per teacherLao PDR: 73% of children under 5, 22.3 pupils per teacherLebanon: 98.9% of children under 5, 12.5 pupils per teacherLiberia: 66.3% of children under 5, 22.3 pupils per teacherSt. Lucia: 92% of children under 5, 14.7 pupils per teacherLesotho: 44.5% of children under 5, 32.9 pupils per teacherLithuania: 100% of children under 5, 13.5 pupils per teacherLuxembourg: 100% of children under 5, 8.3 pupils per teacherLatvia: 100% of children under 5, 11.5 pupils per teacherMorocco: 96.9% of children under 5, 26.8 pupils per teacherMoldova: 99.6% of children under 5, 17.9 pupils per teacherMadagascar: 73.8% of children under 5, 39.8 pupils per teacherMaldives: 98.8% of children under 5, 10.2 pupils per teacherMexico: 97% of children under 5, 26.6 pupils per teacherNorth Macedonia: 99.8% of children under 5, 14.9 pupils per teacherMali: 86.7% of children under 5, 37.8 pupils per teacherMalta: 100% of children under 5, 12.9 pupils per teacherMyanmar: 81.3% of children under 5, 24.4 pupils per teacherMongolia: 99.6% of children under 5, 30.4 pupils per teacherMozambique: 55% of children under 5, 55.3 pupils per teacherMauritania: 44.8% of children under 5, 34.3 pupils per teacherMalawi: 67.2% of children under 5, 58.7 pupils per teacherNamibia: 78.1% of children under 5, 25.1 pupils per teacherNiger: 63.9% of children under 5, 36.3 pupils per teacherNigeria: 42.6% of children under 5, 37.6 pupils per teacherNicaragua: 84.7% of children under 5, 30.2 pupils per teacherNetherlands: 100% of children under 5, 11.8 pupils per teacherNorway: 100% of children under 5, 8.59 pupils per teacherNepal: 77.2% of children under 5, 19.7 pupils per teacherNaoero: 95.9% of children under 5, 40.2 pupils per teacherNew Zealand: 100% of children under 5, 14.9 pupils per teacherOman: 100% of children under 5, 9.67 pupils per teacherPakistan: 42.2% of children under 5, 44.1 pupils per teacherPanama: 96.7% of children under 5, 22 pupils per teacherPeru: 96.4% of children under 5, 17.4 pupils per teacherPhilippines: 91.8% of children under 5, 29.1 pupils per teacherPapua New Guinea: 13.4% of children under 5, 35.5 pupils per teacherPoland: 100% of children under 5, 10.2 pupils per teacherPortugal: 100% of children under 5, 12.4 pupils per teacherParaguay: 71% of children under 5, 24.2 pupils per teacherWest Bank and Gaza: 99.2% of children under 5, 24.5 pupils per teacherQatar: 100% of children under 5, 12.2 pupils per teacherRomania: 100% of children under 5, 19.3 pupils per teacherRussian Federation: 100% of children under 5, 21.3 pupils per teacherRwanda: 85.6% of children under 5, 59.5 pupils per teacherSaudi Arabia: 99.2% of children under 5, 13.8 pupils per teacherSenegal: 78.7% of children under 5, 36.3 pupils per teacherSingapore: 99.9% of children under 5, 14.7 pupils per teacherSolomon Islands: 88% of children under 5, 25.4 pupils per teacherSierra Leone: 90.4% of children under 5, 27.5 pupils per teacherEl Salvador: 91.2% of children under 5, 26.9 pupils per teacherSan Marino: 100% of children under 5, 6.93 pupils per teacherSerbia: 99.9% of children under 5, 14.3 pupils per teacherSao Tome and Principe: 98.6% of children under 5, 31.2 pupils per teacherSuriname: 98.3% of children under 5, 13.4 pupils per teacherSlovak Republic: 100% of children under 5, 15.5 pupils per teacherSlovenia: 100% of children under 5, 13.8 pupils per teacherSweden: 100% of children under 5, 12.2 pupils per teacherEswatini: 53.5% of children under 5, 26.6 pupils per teacherTurks and Caicos Islands: 99.2% of children under 5, 17.7 pupils per teacherChad: 25.7% of children under 5, 56.9 pupils per teacherTogo: 82.9% of children under 5, 40.1 pupils per teacherThailand: 99.8% of children under 5, 16.6 pupils per teacherTajikistan: 95.8% of children under 5, 22.3 pupils per teacherTimor-Leste: 60.4% of children under 5, 26.9 pupils per teacherTonga: 97.7% of children under 5, 21.6 pupils per teacherTunisia: 99.9% of children under 5, 16.9 pupils per teacherTurkiye: 98.4% of children under 5, 17 pupils per teacherTuvalu: 87.2% of children under 5, 15.6 pupils per teacherTanzania: 26.4% of children under 5, 50.6 pupils per teacherUganda: 32.2% of children under 5, 42.7 pupils per teacherUkraine: 99.8% of children under 5, 13 pupils per teacherUruguay: 99.8% of children under 5, 11 pupils per teacherUnited States: 100% of children under 5, 14.2 pupils per teacherViet Nam: 96.1% of children under 5, 20.3 pupils per teacherVanuatu: 43.4% of children under 5, 26.6 pupils per teacherSamoa: 66.9% of children under 5, 30.2 pupils per teacherSouth Africa: 88.6% of children under 5, 30.3 pupils per teacherZambia: 14% of children under 5, 42.1 pupils per teacherZimbabwe: 48.7% of children under 5, 36.4 pupils per teacherCAFCOGETHLUXNORPNGRWASMRTCDVUTZMB

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted-0.7241.8e-26155
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted-0.8265.4e-40155
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income-0.4283.1e-8155
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income-0.3672.9e-6155

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 155 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.297 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from -0.462 (without RWA) to -0.394 (without AGO). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: RWA (-0.034).

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific22-0.21
Europe & Central Asia45+0.00
Latin America & Caribbean23-0.35
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan17-0.74
Sub-Saharan Africa42-0.37

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third52-0.42
Middle third51-0.35
Richest third52-0.48

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians97-0.36
Muslims37-0.72

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France22-0.50
Never a European colony16-0.70
Spain18-0.19
United Kingdom45-0.49

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = -0.318 after dropping 16 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 0years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

Not enough history inside each country to look at this over time. That needs countries measured for several years in a row, and at least one of these measures is measured too rarely.

The data


% of children under 5
pupils per teacher		Years
United States USA100%14.22022, 2017
Sweden SWE100%12.22022, 2017
Slovenia SVN100%13.82022, 2016
Slovak Republic SVK100%15.52020, 2017
San Marino SMR100%6.932022, 2018
Russian Federation RUS100%21.32022, 2017
Romania ROU100%19.32020, 2017
Qatar QAT100%12.22020, 2018
Portugal PRT100%12.42020, 2017
Poland POL100%10.22017
Oman OMN100%9.672018
New Zealand NZL100%14.92022, 2017
Norway NOR100%8.592022, 2017
Netherlands NLD100%11.82022, 2017
Malta MLT100%12.92022, 2017

World Bank, World Development Indicators
World Bank, World Development Indicators

Sources

Birth registration

Completeness of birth registration (%)

UNICEF · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

A measure of how far the state reaches: whether it knows a child exists. Based on surveys and sparse. It is near 100 across the rich world, so all the variation is at the other end.

Pupil-teacher ratio

Pupil-teacher ratio, primary

UNESCO Institute for Statistics · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

The World Bank's copy stops at 2019.

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2010–2022. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Birth registration and Pupil-teacher ratio

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Birth registration changes Pupil-teacher ratio, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Birth registration or Pupil-teacher ratio